How the Cleveland Cavaliers’ offense will be tested against the Orlando Magic

The Cleveland Cavaliers have put themselves in a very precarious position this postseason by knowingly signing up to face the Orlando Magic, an inexperienced team that is most prepared to cause trouble for them on the offensive side of the ball.

Last year, all of Cleveland’s warts were exposed when their primary offensive sets were met early causing them to fall to option two. Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, there was no secondary option.

Middling half-court execution and the way around it

The Cavaliers are a middling half-court offense; they finished the season ranking 18th in the league in half-court points per 100 plays (97.8). Since the All-Star break, Cleveland’s offense has turned into a slog. The Cavaliers’ offensive struggles this season will only benefit the Magic who similarly have half-court struggles of their own.

The Cavaliers are a team that prefers to generate their offensive looks by pulling down the rebound and sprinting out in transition. They rank in the top six in both points per play and per possession when pushing off of live rebounds. While the Cavs aren’t as aggressive as one would hope, ranking 12th in frequency, this is one way they can avoid getting mired down by their half-court woes.

On defense, Orlando ranks as the second-best in opponent points per possession, forcing turnovers, and offensive rebounding percentage. This compounded by the fact Cleveland is a weaker offensive-rebounding team illustrates that the Cavaliers need to make the most of their initial possessions in these half-court sets.

The Cavaliers, while strong in converting second-chance putbacks from offensive rebounding (119.8 per 100), also struggled to secure those offensive rebounds finishing the season 19th in offensive rebounding percentage (26.5%).

Second-chance opportunities will not be a given

The Magic finished the season as the league’s fourth-best rebounding team in terms of percentage, which means second-chance opportunities will come sparingly. Cleveland, in general, is not a strong offensive-rebounding team. Last postseason the Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen pairing was outplayed consistently by Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein.

Orlando is an effective rebounding team because of their efforts across the roster. The Magic do not have one player who averages more than seven rebounds per game (Paolo Banchero and Wendall Carter Jr. both average 6.9 rebounds). Yet, their gang-rebounding style has allowed them to excel.

The Magic are not only effective on the defensive glass but grabbing the offensive boards as well, the Magic are 5th in the league at grabbing their miss (29.9%). This, coupled with the fact that Orlando is not an efficient half-court offense (96.6 points per possession) in their own right, means that they are constantly over-committing to the rebound and will be relentlessly crashing the glass off of shot attempts.

However, this illustrates a game plan that the Cavaliers can take advantage of. If Cleveland wishes to keep the game in their offensive favor, they need to be aggressive in preventing second-chance opportunities for Orlando. The Magic all season have been aggressive on the offensive boards thus leaving them exposed in transition, which the Cavaliers can use as an easy avenue to attack and spread out for clean looks from the perimeter.

The Magic, when exposed in transition, are a different defense. When not in a designed set, they look more mortal. They are the fourth-worst of the rebound in transition defense and rank in the bottom third in both points added and points per play. The Cavaliers, however, rank near the league’s best in this in succeeding when pushing the pace off the break. This is a weakness that needs to be exposed in what appears statistically to be a stout defense.

The Magic are built to stifle ball handlers

The Magic’s quartet of Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, and Jonathan Isaac should all see major minutes attached to Garland and Mitchell during this series. All of whom are elite in on-ball pressure and generating turnovers.

Suggs and Fultz are taller guards who excel at generating turnovers and disrupting their opponents’ shots and both rank near the top of the league respectively in steal and block percentage. When they are on-ball, their frame and physicality cause smaller guards to overwork and wear down as the game goes along.

Isaac is a problem alone, by almost every metric you can find he excels defensively. Lineups that include Jonathan Isaac rank near the top defensively in pts/poss, eFG%, and TOV%.

Despite measuring in at 6’11, Isaac is someone who excels at all levels of the floor defensively and is a quick fix to most problematic players Orlando faces. Isaac can guard equally effectively at the perimeter as well as at the cup. He is a player who can disrupt the one through the five and is the Swiss army tool in Jamahl Mosley’s pocket. One can imagine him disrupting the pick-and-roll offense the Cavaliers will hope to execute as he can switch and smother the ball handler or confidently switch onto either Mobley or Allen and be equally as capable.

The hampered All-Star Cavalier guards in Garland and Mitchell, have both shown flashes of resembling their true capabilities, but not for prolonged stretches since returning from injury. Being matched up with the defensive-minded backcourt of the Magic is going to be a true test that should resemble similar ghosts for the Cavaliers offense.

Expecting a lot of creative defensive coverages to trap the guards and dare them to kick out and trust the supporting cast of this Cavaliers’ roster. The Magic, as the Knicks did to Cleveland last season, will let the game slow down and expose the lack of self-reliant scorers outside of the star guards.