Who should fans want the Knicks to play against?

On a hectic Sunday where the Knicks could’ve finished as low as the fourth seed, they beat the Chicago Bulls and secured the second seed. And that means they’ll play the winner of Wednesday night’s game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Miami Heat. So who, as Knicks fans, should we root for and want to see advance to face off against New York? Well, there’s an argument to be made for both.

Let’s start with the seventh-seed 76ers. Now, a matchup between a 50-32 second seed and a 47-35 seventh seed usually has a relatively clear favorite but given the media’s constant belittling of the Knicks, and the injury to Julius Randle, the Sixers, were they to beat the Heat, could end up being favorites. And with Joel Embiid back in the picture, it’s hard to blame them. That isn’t to say that New York can’t or won’t beat them. But we can’t let Embiid’s two-month absence caused by a knee injury cloud the fact that he is a top-five player in the world and was far and out the leading MVP candidate before he got hurt. He finished the season averaging an absurd 34.7PPG, 11RPG, and 5.6APG while shooting an incredibly efficient 52.9% from the field and the Sixers were a jaw-dropping 31-8 with him in the fold this season.

But, this matchup could still be favorable for the Knicks. Throughout Embiid’s illustrious career, he’s been labeled as a playoff choker. That may be a little bit harsh and unfit but he’s indeed had multiple postseasons where he’s played significantly worse in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. Since 2020, Embiid has averaged less than 25PPG in three of seven playoff series and has averaged 20PPG or less in two of them. And just last season, Embiid went from averaging 33.1PPG in the regular season to just 23.7PPG in the playoffs, which was the largest drop-off by that season’s MVP in NBA history.

Not only that, Embiid has also had a knack for disappearing in the fourth quarter of games. In 48 playoff games, the All-NBA big man is averaging just 5.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 0.6 assists in the fourth quarter of playoff games. And why does that matter? The Knicks finished the season fourth in the league in fourth-quarter net rating. If Embiid, who is still just a couple weeks into his post-injury return, is unable to stay strong in the final 12 minutes of some of these games, the Knicks could end up winning the crucial fourth quarter in many of those games.

Another potentially encouraging sign is the fact that Tyrese Maxey shot just 33.3% from three across three games against the Knicks. Now, to be fair, he did still average 26.3PPG against New York this season. But, the three-point shot is a big part of Maxey’s game. And while it may be a bit of an optimistic take, there are reasons to believe that limiting him there, and having Deuce McBride, who held Maxey scoreless in 17 possessions in the two teams’ first two meetings, spell some minutes on him, New York could slow down Maxey to a degree. New York can also rest easy knowing that Tobias Harris, a New York native and a former Knicks target, averaged just 6.3PPG against them this season and that Kelly Oubre averaged 16.5PPG against them this season but shot an inefficient 41.7% from the field doing so.

Some of the things stated above are nitpicking. I get that. But when you’re dealing with a good team, you kind of have to. And all in all, Philadelphia, when healthy is still a very good team. But again, New York has the tools to beat this team. We saw them do it in the regular season and given Embiid’s well-documented struggles in the fourth quarters in the playoffs, Maxey’s shaky three-point shooting, and the lack of an efficient third option, the Knicks could very well do it again in the playoffs.

So how does Miami fare? Well, like Philadelphia, they too lost the regular season series to New York. But also like the Sixers, the Heat would come into the series against the Knicks as a favorite to some. They may not have had the same kind of regular season run as the Sixers did earlier on, and they certainly don’t have a top five, let alone a top 10 player in the world. But what they have going for them is history. Not only did the Heat manage to take care of the Knicks in six games last playoffs, but they also have a history of making deep playoff runs, with one of those runs coming as a play-in team just last year. And leading that charge is Jimmy Butler, who has had enough playoff moments to be given the moniker playoff Jimmy.

Just for those two simple facts alone, fans may be tempted to pick facing the 76ers over the Heat. And I wouldn’t necessarily blame them. The Heat have one of, if not, the best coaches in the league, are battle-tested, have beaten the Knicks in the playoffs recently, and have a player, that has at times, been the best player in a playoff series. I also believe that personnel and scheme-wise, Miami matches up with the Knicks a bit better. But Miami may still be the preferred matchup for some.

First of all, they just weren’t as good of a team during the regular season. Now, the playoffs are a completely different animal, and we’ve seen the Heat outplay their regular season projections in the playoffs time and time again. And if I had to pick one team and one player between Miami and Philadelphia to come through in the playoffs, it would be the Heat and Jimmy Butler. But they just looked extremely subpar and unimpressive for the majority of the season and despite being relatively healthy, managed just a 1.8 net rating on the season.

I also think Playoff Jimmy has taken on a life of its own and has been blown out of proportion. Butler definitely has had some signature playoff moments and games but as a whole, he’s been much more inconsistent and mediocre than many care to remember. Throughout his career, Butler has averaged just 21.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 4.6 APG. Not only that, in the first round of the playoffs, which is when he’d face off against the Knicks, he’s averaging just 19.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 3.9 APG.

Now, some of that includes his days in Chicago where he wasn’t the player he is now, some years in Philadelphia where he had to share the ball more, and one season in Minnesota. So for this argument’s sake, let’s extract those. What you’ll see is that there’s still a lot of mediocrity there. In 12 playoff series as a Heat, Butler has averaged less than 25PPG seven times and shot under 45% from the field seven times as well.

We also can’t forget that the Knicks were just a few shots away from sending the series to game seven last year despite having almost no three-point shooting. While the shooting and spacing concerns with Josh Hart will still be there, this season’s Knicks with Donte DiVincenzo, and OG Anunoby coupled with the playmaking abilities of Isiah Hartenstein and an even better Jalen Brunson, should have a much better offense and defense to counter the Heat. Miami did improve as well with a healthy Tyler Herro and the addition of Terry Rozier but the sum of New York’s additions and improvements should still win out.

What makes all of this truly fascinating is that I don’t think there’s a clear preference. I’ve spoken to many people and the answers vary. Some want the Sixers because Embiid is injury-prone and has disappeared in the playoffs and because the Heat, with Eric Spoelstra and Jimmy Butler, have a history of performing in the playoffs. But others want the Heat because facing off against Embiid and Maxey will be no easy task and believe the Heat, despite their past success, should be an easier opponent.

Wherever you lie on the scale though, there are plenty of reasons to believe that the Knicks can win regardless of the opponent. To clarify, it likely won’t be easy either way. But this team has continuously proved to all of us that regardless of who is playing and who they are playing against, they are going to give it their all and be in the fight. And with Anunoby and Hartenstein both looking healthy to finish the season and Brunson playing like a top-five player in the league, the Knicks don’t care who they’re playing against and maybe we shouldn’t either.