Three Leaf Clover: what should the Celtics do at the end of games?

The last week or so hasn’t exactly been a banner for the Celtics’ late game offense. Most notably were the two losses in Atlanta where the ghosts of Jayson Tatum’s (and Jaylen Brown’s) past reared their heads at the highest leverage moments. Like Happy Gilmore, it’s something I’ve watched more times than I can count, and I know how it ends. Unlike Happy Gilmore, the ending usually isn’t very happy (sorry).

Stat of the Week: 1/10 on long mid-range

Going into the second Hawks game, this is what the Celtics’ FGAs looked like when the score was within 3 and there was 2 or fewer minutes left (excluding overtime).

There are two places that jump out: long midrange and above the break 3s. On those two shots, the Celtics were 4/21 (19.0%), which is very bad! In the Atlanta game they went 1/1 from long mid and 0/1 above the break with those parameters, so still pretty bad. But outside of those two, the Celtics have been either decently or incredibly efficient, which paints a pretty clear picture to me on the types of shots the Celtics should be prioritizing at the end of games.

With that said, the above the break 3s don’t bother me as much. The Celtics shoot the most ATB threes in the league and are the second most efficient on those shots. Like a certain hockey player turned golfer, the long-ball has been a weapon for the Celtics all season. It’s objectively a good shot for them, especially when it’s a catch and shoot 3.

pbpstats.com

There is almost no scenario where a long middie is a good shot, and the very end of games is no exception. Nobody wants to see the Celtics take out the 4-iron and try to find green from 200+ out.

Often with the Cs, it’s a failure of process late-game. I can live with missed shots, but long mid-range jumpers, and to a lesser extent above the break threes, are the laziest shots in basketball. Jayson Tatum can create either of those shots anytime he wants, and maybe that’s the problem. I don’t expect the Celtics to look like the KD-era Warriors with their ball and player movement late game, but there exists a middle ground from what it’s looked like recently, a middle ground we will explore in our next section.

Xs and OOooohhhhsss: giving them the Horns in crunch-time

The Celtics have become predictable at the very end of games, often tossing the ball to one of the Jays and trying to mismatch hunt. While I understand the argument — it’s low turnover basketball and both the Jays are good at attacking mismatches — it hasn’t worked. It often leads to the dreaded long middie discussed above, a shot more distasteful than that Bob Barker.

It’s time they tried something else. I would posit that the Celtics should rely on actions out of the Horns set regularly late in games. If you aren’t familiar with Horns, this is what it looks like to start the set (Jrue Holiday is in the near corner just off screen):

The key components are two players at either side of the free throw line and two players spacing in the corners. While my preference is the version with KP sharing the free throw line with Tatum and JB spacing the corner, regardless of the alignment, it puts the Celtics’ best players in positions to succeed. Tatum and KP/Brown can operate in the high post where they are dangerous, Derrick White is the primary ball-handler, and Jrue/KP/Brown can space out, attack closeouts, come off pin-downs, and generally cause havoc out of the corners.

The Celtics regularly run this throughout games, and in the second Atlanta game, they ran it three straight times in the final 4 minutes.

Three straight possessions and three straight buckets. They weren’t the epitome of beautiful basketball, but even in the two possessions where they ended with Tatum isos, it was after some ball and player movement. Tatum ended up with a very favorable matchup in both instances. When the Celtics are running Horns, getting Tatum a mismatch is usually the option of last resort, instead of the only option like some of their other late-game sets.

The optionality and malleability of Horns is its strength. On this play, KP replaces Jaylen at the nail, and White hits him in the high post. JT then sets a back screen, and instead of cutting like JB did in the clips above, it’s White that does for a (relatively) easy two.

The Celtics run the same action out of Horns here, but instead of finding White, Tatum and KP flow into a pick and roll that gets Tatum downhill for a layup.

There’s just so many things you can do out of Horns even when the action is the same. It allows the guys to flow naturally in and out of the offense, and isolates defenders on the Celtics’ best players due to the natural spacing.

You can also run off-ball stuff for the corner spacers, like the Cs do here (although this isn’t Horns since Tatum starts on the baseline, but it’s very similar given where he cuts to):

Jaylen is especially deadly lifting from the corners and attacking with a head of steam. It’s an action the Celtics regularly use to get him involved in the offense.

The natural spacing of Horns should limit turnovers and hard help from defenders, and the variety keeps the defense guessing by giving the Celtics multiple attack points on a single possession.

Ultimately though, I don’t think Horns is the only answer for the Celtics’ late game offense, but it is one of them. What’s important isn’t that they run Horns specifically; it’s that they run something, and do it quickly. We’ve seen the offense get bogged down and stagnant too many times for Mazzulla not to fix it, and I expect he will. Remember, Joe, it’s all in the hips.

Non-basketball Stuff of the Week: the old foes loom in the NBA Playoffs

I can’t believe this season is basically over. With the 1-seed in the East locked up and homecourt in the Finals arriving quickly, the Celtics’ regular season is over. Another year in the books and another playoffs on the horizon. And when I look at that horizon, I keep seeing the same damn faces: Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Hey, NBA, can we play someone different for once? While I do think its fun to engender rivalries, the Celtics have already conquered the Sixers. It’s over, Jayson Tatum made sure of it last season. Playing the Bucks and watching Giannis do his best Mike Alstott impression also isn’t my idea of a fun series. And the Heat, well, I never want to see the Heat again, ever. So, NBA Gods, if you’re out there, give us the Bulls, Magic, and Knicks, just this once.