Why Knicks fans should panic, and why they shouldn’t

As the New York Knicks navigate through a tumultuous season, several concerning trends have emerged, from mounting injuries to offensive woes. The sky, however, might not be falling. Here are five reasons to panic—and five reasons not to.

Reason to panic #1- Injuries keep mounting

It goes without saying that the number one thing that is hurting New York right now is health, or lack thereof. Every team in the league deals with injuries at one point or another but the Knicks are unfortunately dealing with a lot of them and doing so at the same time. New York has somehow found a way to stay afloat and stay competitive despite their numerous injuries thanks in large part to Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, and Precious Achiuwa stepping up but things are starting to look dire. Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, and OG Anunoby have been and will continue to be out, Isaiah Hartenstein has been in and out of the lineup with an Achilles injury, Brunson missed a game with an ankle sprain, and DiVincenzo left last night’s game with a hamstring injury. Tom Thibodeau has prioritized winning games right now over looking at the bigger picture, which isn’t necessarily the wrong decision given how close the Eastern Conference playoff race is, but it’s clear that the players are starting to wear down. Regardless of how confident you are in the Knicks’ players’ conditioning, one has to wonder how much longer the few remaining healthy players can keep playing the kinds of minutes they are now.

Reason to panic #2- Brunson’s shot profile is changing

Since Randle’s injury, Brunson is averaging 32.9PPG on 49.2% shooting. That’s very good, to say the least. But it’s evident that he’s had to work significantly harder to score. Teams are trapping him, doubling him, and throwing all kinds of different looks at him and one thing that’s done, is severely limit the amount of quality looks he’s gotten from beyond the arc. Before Randle’s injury, we saw Brunson relocating off of Randle’s drives and post touches often and it usually led to very quality looks from three. Now with Randle out, there is nobody else on the roster that can even come close to demanding the kind of attention Randle did, and it’s led to more on-ball duties, and way less open threes for Brunson. And it shows in the stats as well. In the seven games without Randle this season, Brunson is shooting 25.6% from three on 5.6 attempts per game, which is way worse than the 42.6% on 6.6 attempts he averages in games with Randle. Again, Brunson is still putting up very good numbers overall, but there’s a chance that the Houston Rockets game was a sign of things to come and if that’s the case, fans need to worry.

Reason to panic #3- Deuce McBride’s shooting has cooled off

For an 18-game stretch, it looked like McBride was one of the best outside shooters in the league. He wasn’t necessarily a volume shooter, getting up just 4.1 three-pointers per game, but he was shooting it at a very efficient 46.6%. He was making them off the dribble, in transition, and in catch-and-shoot situations, and had been a very crucial part of keeping the Knicks afloat with all the injuries. But he’s since cooled down, making New York’s ability to withstand all of its injuries even more difficult. Over the Knicks’ last five games, McBride has shot just 5/22, good for just 22.7%, in his last five games. It’s still possible that McBride re-discovers his shot and returns to being the key bench piece that he was a couple of weeks ago. But if he continues to struggle shooting, the Knicks and their fans may feel the brunt and effect of the injuries even more.

Reason to panic #4- Josh Hart’s offense continues to be a big question mark

Hart had a very big second half last night and ended the game with 17 points but his lack of shooting continues to negatively impact the team’s offense. When he can share the court with three other space floors, his offensive limitations are less obvious and less detrimental. In turn, he can focus all his efforts on rebounding, defense, and cutting, and not have to worry about being a spot-up shooter. But with Thibodeau insistent on playing him in the starting lineup over Bojan Bogdanovic, and continuing to have two bigs alongside Brunson and DiVincenzo, his inability to be a consistent shooter remains problematic. If Thibodeau continues to play Hart alongside two bigs, Brunson and DiVincenzo, the offense will continue to have its share of problems, and that is incredibly worrying.

Reason to panic #5- New pieces have looked bad defensively

While I still believe that the trade for Bogdanovic and Burks was a good one, it’s clear that their defense has been putrid. Now, everyone knew coming in that neither players were good defenders. Both are subpar defenders with the former bordering on horrible. But in their limited time, they’ve been bad, even for their standards. Some of it can be chalked up to them learning, or in Burks’ case, relearning, Thibodeau’s schemes but it’s a bit concerning to see them be even worse than advertised defensively. They don’t need to be, and will never be good defenders, but if they can’t stop anyone ever, then things could get ugly.

Reason to not panic #1- Players are coming back eventually

Thankfully, the Knicks should be healthy eventually. The All-Star break will give the players a much-needed break and reports indicate that Robinson and Anunoby have a shot at returning a few weeks after that. Randle’s status still seems to be up in the air but if the team can get some good surrounding after his reevaluation, this team should get some healthy bodies back and have some time before the playoffs to ramp up and gain some momentum. And when, or if, they do, it’ll take a lot of pressure off of Brunson, while DiVincenzo, Hart, Achiuwa, and McBride will all be asked to do a little less. There are still a lot of ifs but we have a pretty good idea of how good this team can be and that alone should be enough to give us all some hope going forward.

Reason to not panic #2- The aforementioned defensive woes will be remedied

Bogdanovic and Burks’ atrocious defense is a problem right now, and it’ll likely remain that way for the foreseeable future. But the good thing is, when this team is at full strength, it should be a lot easier to cover up their mistakes. With Anunoby, Hartenstein, and Robinson healthy, they’ll be able to mask their defensive shortcomings much more effectively, allowing them to be on the court without being complete liabilities. Again, they won’t suddenly become good defenders, but it will be a lot easier to have Bogdanovic and Burks playing significant minutes if their defensive weaknesses can be somewhat hidden.

Reason to not panic #3- Donte DiVincenzo’s production is real and not a fluke

Whenever a major injury, or in the case of the Knicks, injuries, occur, players are allowed to step up and shoulder a bigger load. And that is exactly what DiVincenzo has done. Over his last eight games, DiVincenzo is averaging 26.5PPG, 4.3RPG, and 4APG on 45.9% shooting from the field and a very efficient 39.6% from three on an absurd 13.3 attempts per game. During that span, DiVincenzo has been the best shooter in the league outside of Steph Curry, and he’s taken big leaps in his driving, finishing, and playmaking as well. It’s clear that his numbers and role will go back down as the team gets healthier, but the emergence of DiVincenzo should give fans even more confidence about the team’s offense heading into the postseason. Simply put, DiVincenzo remains one of the few silver linings of the aforementioned injuries.

Reason to not panic #4- Knicks have found something in Precious Achiuwa

Like DiVincenzo, Achiuwa was suddenly thrust into a much bigger role, and like DiVincenzo, he has blossomed. Over his last seven games, the former Raptor is averaging 13.3PPG, 10.4RPG, 1.3SPG, and 1.9BPG while shooting 53.9% from the field. It’s still unclear what kind of role Achiuwa will have going forward and when Robinson and Hartenstein are good to go, but it’s nice knowing that the Knicks have a very capable, high-energy big man who can come in and be productive if either goes down with an injury again or succumb to foul trouble.

Reason to not panic #5*- The Anunoby injury could end up being a blessing in disguise in the long run

This is coming with an asterisk because it’s admittedly a stretch. After all, it’s obvious that these injuries have been incredibly detrimental to this team. They’re missing those guys badly and it’s now stretching the remaining players incredibly thin. But, if we are to be extremely optimistic, we can look at the Anunoby injury as a way for the Knicks to maintain some mysteriousness on the defensive side heading into the playoffs. Indiana won’t play the Knicks anymore in the regular season this season and in the three games that the Pacers have played against the Knicks, Indiana did not face off against OG Anunoby a single time. In a series that could end up being competitive, the Pacers not knowing how exactly Thibodeau and the Knicks are going to defend them could be a small but important advantage. And the Knicks could end up having a similar advantage against the Cavaliers, Bucks, and Celtics. New York plays Cleveland for the final time this regular season on March 3rd and it’s questionable if Anunoby will be ready by then. And, if the Knicks are sitting in a good spot standings-wise, they could elect to sit Anunoby against Milwaukee and or Boston when they play them in the last week of the season. Again, it’s a stretch, but at this point, we all just need something to give us some hope.