The Knicks could run this back, mostly as is, and they would be a pleasing team to watch in the 2023-24 season if they can stay healthy. They’ll win in the neighborhood of 45-50 games.
They’ll likely steer clear of the play-in tournament, maybe settle into the 4 or 5 seed, and take their chances with that.
There is an argument to be made for that, sure. There have been so many lost Knicks seasons dating back to the turn of the century, so many starts and stops, and so little prosperity that it’s easy to simply embrace a competitive, good-to-very-good team, one that may or may not survive the crucible of a 4-5 series as it did this time, one that may have to try and do some surprise work as a 6 seed if a few other Eastern Conference rivals (notably the Heat) are better next year than they were this year.
In other words: Literally run it back, all of it, the whole season.
But it does seem that these Knicks — even with the addition of Donte DiVincenzo, even if they can find a taker for Evan Fournier to free up enough cash to make another addition — have a definite ceiling on what they can be. They’re not as good as the Bucks, who have kept the band together while changing coaches. They’re not as good as the Celtics, assuming Jaylen Brown stays. They’re not as good as the Heat, even if it’s only Tyler Herro who returns for them this year, let alone if they add Damian Lillard.
Are they as good as the 76ers, post James Harden? As good as the Hawks with a full year under Quin Snyder? Are they as good as the Cavaliers — who, after all, actually did finish fourth this year? Fair questions. They might be. They could be.
“The Knicks are a really nice team,” one longtime NBA executive said Thursday afternoon. “There’s nothing wrong with having a really nice team, at all. But there’s only so much you can expect to achieve with a really nice team.”
And thus, we have team president Leon Rose’s quandary.
How do the Knicks become something other than a nice team that essentially will battle for fourth place — maybe third if everything goes right for them and something goes terribly wrong for one or two of the Eastern powerhouses?
Well, it would be nice if Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid — or, hell, while we’re dreaming, Victor Wembanyama — woke up one day over the weekend and announces, “You know, unless I get traded to the Knicks, I’m retiring from the NBA.” But I wouldn’t count on that.
The other alternative?
You shake up the core.
Not randomly. Not recklessly. And there are really very few choices here. Jalen Brunson is going nowhere. It seems unlikely the Knicks will part with Julius Randle for dimes and quarters on the dollar. Mitch Robinson? As great as he looked against Cleveland’s kiddie-corps twin towers, he looked overpowered by Bam Adebayo, so his list of suitors — with worthy Knicks targets — is probably limited.
It leaves us with the same question we were asking ourselves this time last year:
How much do you believe in RJ Barrett?
No Knick divides the fan base more than Barrett, and it’s not close. He is still just 23 years old. He has been in the league four years, and every season he comes back with a new wrinkle in his game, and with an elevated ceiling. He certainly quieted the voices (starting with your humble narrator’s) who thought the Knicks should use him as a piece in acquiring Donovan Mitchell last summer.
But there are still elements of his game that can be frustrating: He has inconsistent 3-point shooting. He has been increasingly reliant on an inside game for a guy who only stands 6-foot-6. Tom Thibodeau took to benching him in fourth quarters last year in favor of Quentin Grimes or Josh Hart or Immanuel Quickley.
And there is a stubborn belief that the Knicks love the Raptors’ OG Anunoby, who is three years older and has battled some injuries, but is probably the better player right now (though the future is still an open book). The Knicks have the draft assets to make it happen, but Anunoby shouldn’t cost the bounty Mitchell or a player of that level would, especially with a chit like Barrett, who is good and would likely be attractive for Toronto, his hometown team.
These kinds of trades are rarely no-brainers. Neither is this. You have to give something to get something. If you pull the trigger on this, it bespeaks a belief that the chemistry changes — for the better — by essentially swapping Barrett for Anunoby, and that it’ll project to an even more attractive destination for the Next Big Target who really does become available.
Me? I’d pull that trigger. I’d massage the core. Rose may feel differently. So far he usually does. He sure seemed to like the 2022-23 team. But at some point we need to remember that he was hired to build something beyond nice.