New York battled back in Game 5, setting up our Knicks vs. Heat prediction for Game 6.
The Heat are moderate home favorites, as bookmakers seem to believe Miami is Eastern Conference Finals bound.
I’m unsure who will win Game 6, but I think it’ll be a grinder.
Knicks vs. Heat odds
Spread: Knicks +5.5 (-110) vs. Heat -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Knicks (+185) vs. Heat (-225)
Total: Over 208 (-110) | Under 208 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars, current at time of writing and subject to change.Â
Knicks vs. Heat prediction and analysis
I expect the scoring to slow down in Game 6.
Teams generally play tighter during elimination games, so points are at a premium. Â
For example, unders in Game 6 of a playoff series are 28-16 since 2003, per Joe Dellera of The Action Network.
We saw it Thursday night in the Boston-Philadelphia and Denver-Phoenix games, as both went way under the total in a Game 6.
The Knicks haven’t been able to score against Miami’s suffocating defense.
While Jalen Brunson has been unbelievable, the Heat have held him to 47.6% shooting from the field and 30.8% from 3 – lackluster, inefficient splits.
Meanwhile, the Heat have seen major regression in the 3-point department, shooting only 31.2% from deep.
Jimmy Butler hasn’t been his normal, superhuman self, either, scoring only 19 points in Game 5.
Essentially, both offenses are struggling.
Moreover, the pace has been uber-slow, at around 93 possessions for the series.
Both teams are running on fumes while potentially dealing with minor injuries.Â
Ultimately, the Knicks and Heat will play slow and struggle to score baskets with their seasons on the line, the perfect formula for an under.
Cheering for a poor, low-scoring basketball game is never fun, but it’s the best bet for Game 6.
Knicks vs. Heat pick
Under 208 (-110) | Play to 206 (-110, Caesars)