Just two weeks after scoring their first playoff series win in a decade, the Knicks’ season could be over on Wednesday night when they host the Heat in a must-win Game 5 of this Eastern Conference semifinal matchup.
Miami has won all three games in this series with an active Jimmy Butler, whose exploits on both ends have carried his team to a 3-1 lead entering Wednesday’s road tilt.
Here’s how we’re betting Wednesday’s contest, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Can the Knicks get a win in pivotal Game 5 against the Heat? Make your picks now at Caesars Sportsbook!
Knicks vs. Heat odds
(via BetMGM)
- Knicks -3.5 (-110), moneyline -165
- Heat +3.5 (-110), moneyline +140
- O/U 209.5 (-110)
Knicks vs. Heat prediction and analysis
(7:30 p.m. ET on TNT)
Before this series began, I was rather blunt in my assessment of the Knicks’ offense, which had done enough to outlast Cleveland in the first round but looked like a seriously flawed unit ahead of the second round.
Sure enough, Miami has exposed the issues of this star-less bunch.
And with Butler and Co. smelling blood in a closeout spot, I wouldn’t expect that to change on Wednesday.
As we’ve written about ad nauseam in the series, New York simply can’t score consistently.
The Knicks own the worst offensive rating (106.8) of any team still alive in these playoffs, and they’ve scored 102 points or fewer in seven of nine games to this point.
They still haven’t shot 50% or better in a game this postseason, as their 48.7% shooting percentage in Monday’s 109-101 loss was somehow their best to this point.
They’ve also shot worse than 33% from deep in eight of nine games – a symptom of a starting lineup that lacks consistent spacing or elite volume shooters.
As has been the case all year, New York lacks a clear go-to scorer who can overcome elite defense in the postseason.
And Miami’s stout defense has only exacerbated the issue.
Jalen Brunson (25.2 PPG) has been the Knicks’ best scoring option since the playoffs began, but he’s shooting just 44.6% from the floor and 28.3% from deep in the postseason.
He’s also been held to a mere 10 points on 5-of-16 shooting (31.3%) across roughly 45 possessions with Butler as his primary defender, which he’ll surely see again in Game 5.
That puts undue pressure on struggling All-Star forward Julius Randle (15.9 PPG), who’s shooting an abysmal 37.5% in the playoffs and clearly isn’t at full strength.
It’s not like this team can rely on quality ball movement to support its secondary scorers, either: the Knicks were dead last in assist rate in the regular season (54.6%) and rank second-to-last in this postseason (52.1%).
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There’s a chance Miami’s offense runs cold in a raucous road environment, but we’ve also seen Butler and Co. heat up at Madison Square Garden in this series.
So, rather than parse between those two options, I’m directly fading a Knicks offense that’s topped 106 points just once in nine playoff games and looks hard-pressed to do that on Wednesday.
Knicks vs. Heat pick
- Knicks team total under 106.5 (-125. Caesars)