After two close games to open this NBA Eastern Conference semifinal, the Heat asserted their will in Game 3 with a 19-point win that saw the Knicks’ offense grind to a halt on the road.
Will we see a resurgence in Game 4?
Miami is once again dealing as a modest home favorite, and oddsmakers aren’t expecting either team’s offense to heat up after what we’ve seen through the first three games of this second-round series.
Here’s how we’re betting Monday’s contest, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Heat vs. Knicks odds
(via BetMGM)
- Heat -4.5 (-110), moneyline -190
- Knicks +4.5 (-110), moneyline +155
- O/U 208.5 (under -115)
Heat vs. Knicks prediction and analysis
(7:30 p.m. ET on TNT)
In the regular season, the Knicks’ offense was one of the most efficient units in the entire league – ranking fourth in points per 100 possessions (117.0) despite ranking 20th in effective field-goal percentage (54.1%) and dead last in assist rate (54.6%).
It sure looks like those latter marks were better indicators of what to expect from New York’s offense in the postseason. And the results haven’t been pretty.
Through eight games, the Knicks have scored just 106.6 points per 100 possessions – ranking fourth-worst among 16 playoff teams and last among the eight teams still standing.
They’ve shot worse than 48% in all eight of those contests, and they predictably rank dead last among the entire field in postseason assist rate (51.6%).
It all hit rock bottom in Saturday’s Game 3 loss, when New York posted its second-worst marks all year in points scored (86), field-goal percentage (34.1%), and 3-point percentage (20%).
Only Jalen Brunson (20) scored more than 15 points, needing 20 shots to get there, and no player on the roster shot better than 50% from the floor.
Clearly, some of that is on the Knicks, who have struggled to score across two series.
But it’s also a credit to the Heat’s reinvention on the defensive end.
Miami boasted a solid defensive rating (112.8) across the entire regular season but owned one of the worst defenses in the league after the All-Star break.
The Heat have since turned up the intensity during the postseason, holding opponents to a 111.1 offensive rating while forcing 13.6 turnovers per game.
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It helps to have Jimmy Butler, who has been dynamic on both ends of the floor in these playoffs. He’s averaging 34.4 points on a blistering 56.4% shooting in seven games.
Still, he’s also held Knicks star Jalen Brunson to just six points on 3-of-10 shooting across roughly 35 possessions in two Heat wins – while also frustrating guards RJ Barrett (42.9%) and Josh Hart (28.6%) in those two games, too.
It’s no coincidence that New York’s lone win in this series came with Butler on the sidelines in Game 2, when Brunson (30 points) and Julius Randle (25) fought through ankle injuries to lead their side to a crucial home win nearly a week ago.
Butler came back in Game 3 and reinvigorated his team’s defense.
He’s also flanked by center Bam Adebayo, who has finished in the top five in Defensive Player of the Year voting for four consecutive seasons.
With dynamic bench scorer Immanuel Quickley (ankle) doubtful to suit up for the Knicks, it’ll be even tougher for them to break through against this rejuvenated Heat defense.
That leaves Miami just needing a modest scoring output from Butler or Adebayo – or a 3-point explosion from its cadre of long-range shooters in front of a raucous home crowd.
Heat vs. Knicks pick
- Heat -4.5 (-110 BetMGM)