EwingsGlass wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid.

http://basketball.realgm.com/info/agent-client-list/Zach-Kurtin/690

It makes no sense. I have no logic to explain this contract, even days later I am baffled. If I were the league, I would be looking at this very closely. Somebody

I'm done with Mills.

Hardaway makes 18% of the cap. He's the 14th highest paid player at this position. He's being paid like a good starter which he certainly was last year and he's 24. If you goal is to assemble a young team that can grow together than this signing makes plenty of sense. You may not agree with it. Its not what I would do you but you are overreacting... by a lot. The gamble is did Hardaway have a breakout 2nd half or a good few months? Knicks could certainly lose that gamble, but this is not a big payday for an old over the hill player. When was the last time the Knicks took good gamble on young talent? In terms of upside which FA showed more promise than Hardaway last year? Good metrics, good +/-, he's been here before so the organization has a feel for what kind of guy he is... baffled? Really?

Dont mistaken this for being pro-Mills or even pro-Hardaway. I am neither, but the signing was not terrible. As for Mills what is his directive? Its its build a young team than fine. Whats the issue? When we are winning 30ish games and trading picks because the front office is telling fans we are one player away then yea... may the tar and feathering begin. This is the Knicks using the cap space from Rose, and older oft injured player to bring in a 24 year old up and coming player in the fold. Lets see what follows.

Using the 14th highest paid SG is a misleading concept. It gives very little clarity. He has one season with good metrics. His 15.2 PER makes him slightly above average player. The stat is modeled so that an average player as a 15 PER. He has one season a little better than average. The MLE is the salary is set as the average salary of all teams over the cap. Not precise, but an average player should make about $6MM. We can modify that number upwards by discounting for rookie scale contracts. But that upward modification is not $9mm. The argument that it is ONLY the 14th highest salary doesn't make it a good contract. You have to ascertain value. In a season where we do not expect to be extremely competitive, they need to hold out for value contracts. They could have and should have used the cap space to collect bona fide assets, not reach contracts.

This is a pattern. They overpaid Melo. They overpaid for Lance Thomas too. Noah's contract is obviously overstated. Head to head, I do not think that Hardaway beats out Courtney Lee for starting SG.

Its as though your Hardaway argument is intended to cheer us up. That if you hold the glass tilted to the left and close one eye while looking at it upwards, it kind of looks half full. But explain this. Why the 15% trade kicker? You will not have a good explanation for that. It makes no sense. Much like the Melo trade kicker/no trade clause. Is Hardaway that irreplaceable that you handout a poison pill contract to keep the Hawks from matching? Poison pill contracts almost always come back to bite the team receiving the player. Its bad policy. If it were the only player available at that position, I get it.

The directive is to add value to the franchise. No one should argue with that. Acquire assets that create value. Assets that are illiquid have no value. He left no bargaining position. If Hardaway becomes like Isaisah Thomas did in Hornacek's system, the value will be rationalized in that rear view mirror kind of way. But if we are being honest, that contract should have been no where near as high. It has just as high of a probability of burdening the Knicks beyond the expiration of Noah's contract burdening the Knicks. And for that reason it is a bad contract.

You can sell me on Hardaway. And I will cheer for him. But the contract is bad.

PER? People relied on PER back before the iPhone came out! There are much more important stats now.

Its an easy average with quick rules of thumb. We can break down VORP, TS% or any other stat you want. VORP overstates wins in its calculations. PER overstates usage ratio. But if you see the biases, it doesn't really matter. The point is he is an average player at best. High likelihood of regression. His breakout season looks like an outlier. Not a statistical progression.

What about on/off plus minus? Real plus minus? TS%? Opponent FG%? He's significantly better than average in all of those, and it wasn't just this past year.

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid.

http://basketball.realgm.com/info/agent-client-list/Zach-Kurtin/690

It makes no sense. I have no logic to explain this contract, even days later I am baffled. If I were the league, I would be looking at this very closely. Somebody

I'm done with Mills.

Hardaway makes 18% of the cap. He's the 14th highest paid player at this position. He's being paid like a good starter which he certainly was last year and he's 24. If you goal is to assemble a young team that can grow together than this signing makes plenty of sense. You may not agree with it. Its not what I would do you but you are overreacting... by a lot. The gamble is did Hardaway have a breakout 2nd half or a good few months? Knicks could certainly lose that gamble, but this is not a big payday for an old over the hill player. When was the last time the Knicks took good gamble on young talent? In terms of upside which FA showed more promise than Hardaway last year? Good metrics, good +/-, he's been here before so the organization has a feel for what kind of guy he is... baffled? Really?

Dont mistaken this for being pro-Mills or even pro-Hardaway. I am neither, but the signing was not terrible. As for Mills what is his directive? Its its build a young team than fine. Whats the issue? When we are winning 30ish games and trading picks because the front office is telling fans we are one player away then yea... may the tar and feathering begin. This is the Knicks using the cap space from Rose, and older oft injured player to bring in a 24 year old up and coming player in the fold. Lets see what follows.

Using the 14th highest paid SG is a misleading concept. It gives very little clarity. He has one season with good metrics. His 15.2 PER makes him slightly above average player. The stat is modeled so that an average player as a 15 PER. He has one season a little better than average. The MLE is the salary is set as the average salary of all teams over the cap. Not precise, but an average player should make about $6MM. We can modify that number upwards by discounting for rookie scale contracts. But that upward modification is not $9mm. The argument that it is ONLY the 14th highest salary doesn't make it a good contract. You have to ascertain value. In a season where we do not expect to be extremely competitive, they need to hold out for value contracts. They could have and should have used the cap space to collect bona fide assets, not reach contracts.

This is a pattern. They overpaid Melo. They overpaid for Lance Thomas too. Noah's contract is obviously overstated. Head to head, I do not think that Hardaway beats out Courtney Lee for starting SG.

Its as though your Hardaway argument is intended to cheer us up. That if you hold the glass tilted to the left and close one eye while looking at it upwards, it kind of looks half full. But explain this. Why the 15% trade kicker? You will not have a good explanation for that. It makes no sense. Much like the Melo trade kicker/no trade clause. Is Hardaway that irreplaceable that you handout a poison pill contract to keep the Hawks from matching? Poison pill contracts almost always come back to bite the team receiving the player. Its bad policy. If it were the only player available at that position, I get it.

The directive is to add value to the franchise. No one should argue with that. Acquire assets that create value. Assets that are illiquid have no value. He left no bargaining position. If Hardaway becomes like Isaisah Thomas did in Hornacek's system, the value will be rationalized in that rear view mirror kind of way. But if we are being honest, that contract should have been no where near as high. It has just as high of a probability of burdening the Knicks beyond the expiration of Noah's contract burdening the Knicks. And for that reason it is a bad contract.

You can sell me on Hardaway. And I will cheer for him. But the contract is bad.

PER? People relied on PER back before the iPhone came out! There are much more important stats now.

Its an easy average with quick rules of thumb. We can break down VORP, TS% or any other stat you want. VORP overstates wins in its calculations. PER overstates usage ratio. But if you see the biases, it doesn't really matter. The point is he is an average player at best. High likelihood of regression. His breakout season looks like an outlier. Not a statistical progression.

What about on/off plus minus? Real plus minus? TS%? Opponent FG%? He's significantly better than average in all of those, and it wasn't just this past year.

How does On/Off plus minus tell you anything you can meaningfully compare to other players? It is so team specific. Even real plus minus is biased as it doesn't adjust for opposing play. It relies on generalized averages. It tells you if the team outscored the other team while he was on the floor. If I replaced Tim Hardaway with Gary Harris in that Hawks lineup, what would happen? You cannot tell me.

I am also not arguing that Hardaway didn't have a slightly above average season. But if you only use that season as the indicator of value, you have a high risk of a bad contract based on stat regression. I'll note that Bazemore had a horrific season and Hardaway rarely played while Bazemore was on the floor. His plus minus is skewed by virtue of him not being Bazemore.

http://http://www.82games.com/1617/1617ATL2.HTM http://

Congratulations, you and your +/- are the proud new owner of Not Bazemore.

TS% is relatively average but Atl has a history of creating efficient shots that are not maintained when a player leaves ATL. See Carroll, DeMarre. He went from a TS% of 57.5% and 60% when with ATL to 49% and 53% with an arguably better team in Toronto. If you pullup the shot charts, they have better efficiency in shot selection in ATL than most teams have. Hornacek certainly uses the right words to make the best use of this, but I'm not sure it is effectively implemented in NY. I would suggest a significant drop off in TS% in NY versus THJ's time in ATL.

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid.

http://basketball.realgm.com/info/agent-client-list/Zach-Kurtin/690

It makes no sense. I have no logic to explain this contract, even days later I am baffled. If I were the league, I would be looking at this very closely. Somebody

I'm done with Mills.

Hardaway makes 18% of the cap. He's the 14th highest paid player at this position. He's being paid like a good starter which he certainly was last year and he's 24. If you goal is to assemble a young team that can grow together than this signing makes plenty of sense. You may not agree with it. Its not what I would do you but you are overreacting... by a lot. The gamble is did Hardaway have a breakout 2nd half or a good few months? Knicks could certainly lose that gamble, but this is not a big payday for an old over the hill player. When was the last time the Knicks took good gamble on young talent? In terms of upside which FA showed more promise than Hardaway last year? Good metrics, good +/-, he's been here before so the organization has a feel for what kind of guy he is... baffled? Really?

Dont mistaken this for being pro-Mills or even pro-Hardaway. I am neither, but the signing was not terrible. As for Mills what is his directive? Its its build a young team than fine. Whats the issue? When we are winning 30ish games and trading picks because the front office is telling fans we are one player away then yea... may the tar and feathering begin. This is the Knicks using the cap space from Rose, and older oft injured player to bring in a 24 year old up and coming player in the fold. Lets see what follows.

Using the 14th highest paid SG is a misleading concept. It gives very little clarity. He has one season with good metrics. His 15.2 PER makes him slightly above average player. The stat is modeled so that an average player as a 15 PER. He has one season a little better than average. The MLE is the salary is set as the average salary of all teams over the cap. Not precise, but an average player should make about $6MM. We can modify that number upwards by discounting for rookie scale contracts. But that upward modification is not $9mm. The argument that it is ONLY the 14th highest salary doesn't make it a good contract. You have to ascertain value. In a season where we do not expect to be extremely competitive, they need to hold out for value contracts. They could have and should have used the cap space to collect bona fide assets, not reach contracts.

This is a pattern. They overpaid Melo. They overpaid for Lance Thomas too. Noah's contract is obviously overstated. Head to head, I do not think that Hardaway beats out Courtney Lee for starting SG.

Its as though your Hardaway argument is intended to cheer us up. That if you hold the glass tilted to the left and close one eye while looking at it upwards, it kind of looks half full. But explain this. Why the 15% trade kicker? You will not have a good explanation for that. It makes no sense. Much like the Melo trade kicker/no trade clause. Is Hardaway that irreplaceable that you handout a poison pill contract to keep the Hawks from matching? Poison pill contracts almost always come back to bite the team receiving the player. Its bad policy. If it were the only player available at that position, I get it.

The directive is to add value to the franchise. No one should argue with that. Acquire assets that create value. Assets that are illiquid have no value. He left no bargaining position. If Hardaway becomes like Isaisah Thomas did in Hornacek's system, the value will be rationalized in that rear view mirror kind of way. But if we are being honest, that contract should have been no where near as high. It has just as high of a probability of burdening the Knicks beyond the expiration of Noah's contract burdening the Knicks. And for that reason it is a bad contract.

You can sell me on Hardaway. And I will cheer for him. But the contract is bad.

PER? People relied on PER back before the iPhone came out! There are much more important stats now.

Its an easy average with quick rules of thumb. We can break down VORP, TS% or any other stat you want. VORP overstates wins in its calculations. PER overstates usage ratio. But if you see the biases, it doesn't really matter. The point is he is an average player at best. High likelihood of regression. His breakout season looks like an outlier. Not a statistical progression.

What about on/off plus minus? Real plus minus? TS%? Opponent FG%? He's significantly better than average in all of those, and it wasn't just this past year.

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid.

http://basketball.realgm.com/info/agent-client-list/Zach-Kurtin/690

It makes no sense. I have no logic to explain this contract, even days later I am baffled. If I were the league, I would be looking at this very closely. Somebody

I'm done with Mills.

Hardaway makes 18% of the cap. He's the 14th highest paid player at this position. He's being paid like a good starter which he certainly was last year and he's 24. If you goal is to assemble a young team that can grow together than this signing makes plenty of sense. You may not agree with it. Its not what I would do you but you are overreacting... by a lot. The gamble is did Hardaway have a breakout 2nd half or a good few months? Knicks could certainly lose that gamble, but this is not a big payday for an old over the hill player. When was the last time the Knicks took good gamble on young talent? In terms of upside which FA showed more promise than Hardaway last year? Good metrics, good +/-, he's been here before so the organization has a feel for what kind of guy he is... baffled? Really?

Dont mistaken this for being pro-Mills or even pro-Hardaway. I am neither, but the signing was not terrible. As for Mills what is his directive? Its its build a young team than fine. Whats the issue? When we are winning 30ish games and trading picks because the front office is telling fans we are one player away then yea... may the tar and feathering begin. This is the Knicks using the cap space from Rose, and older oft injured player to bring in a 24 year old up and coming player in the fold. Lets see what follows.

Using the 14th highest paid SG is a misleading concept. It gives very little clarity. He has one season with good metrics. His 15.2 PER makes him slightly above average player. The stat is modeled so that an average player as a 15 PER. He has one season a little better than average. The MLE is the salary is set as the average salary of all teams over the cap. Not precise, but an average player should make about $6MM. We can modify that number upwards by discounting for rookie scale contracts. But that upward modification is not $9mm. The argument that it is ONLY the 14th highest salary doesn't make it a good contract. You have to ascertain value. In a season where we do not expect to be extremely competitive, they need to hold out for value contracts. They could have and should have used the cap space to collect bona fide assets, not reach contracts.

This is a pattern. They overpaid Melo. They overpaid for Lance Thomas too. Noah's contract is obviously overstated. Head to head, I do not think that Hardaway beats out Courtney Lee for starting SG.

Its as though your Hardaway argument is intended to cheer us up. That if you hold the glass tilted to the left and close one eye while looking at it upwards, it kind of looks half full. But explain this. Why the 15% trade kicker? You will not have a good explanation for that. It makes no sense. Much like the Melo trade kicker/no trade clause. Is Hardaway that irreplaceable that you handout a poison pill contract to keep the Hawks from matching? Poison pill contracts almost always come back to bite the team receiving the player. Its bad policy. If it were the only player available at that position, I get it.

The directive is to add value to the franchise. No one should argue with that. Acquire assets that create value. Assets that are illiquid have no value. He left no bargaining position. If Hardaway becomes like Isaisah Thomas did in Hornacek's system, the value will be rationalized in that rear view mirror kind of way. But if we are being honest, that contract should have been no where near as high. It has just as high of a probability of burdening the Knicks beyond the expiration of Noah's contract burdening the Knicks. And for that reason it is a bad contract.

You can sell me on Hardaway. And I will cheer for him. But the contract is bad.

PER? People relied on PER back before the iPhone came out! There are much more important stats now.

Its an easy average with quick rules of thumb. We can break down VORP, TS% or any other stat you want. VORP overstates wins in its calculations. PER overstates usage ratio. But if you see the biases, it doesn't really matter. The point is he is an average player at best. High likelihood of regression. His breakout season looks like an outlier. Not a statistical progression.

What about on/off plus minus? Real plus minus? TS%? Opponent FG%? He's significantly better than average in all of those, and it wasn't just this past year.

How does On/Off plus minus tell you anything you can meaningfully compare to other players? It is so team specific. Even real plus minus is biased as it doesn't adjust for opposing play. It relies on generalized averages. It tells you if the team outscored the other team while he was on the floor. If I replaced Tim Hardaway with Gary Harris in that Hawks lineup, what would happen? You cannot tell me.

I am also not arguing that Hardaway didn't have a slightly above average season. But if you only use that season as the indicator of value, you have a high risk of a bad contract based on stat regression. I'll note that Bazemore had a horrific season and Hardaway rarely played while Bazemore was on the floor. His plus minus is skewed by virtue of him not being Bazemore.

http://http://www.82games.com/1617/1617ATL2.HTM http://

Congratulations, you and your +/- are the proud new owner of Not Bazemore.

TS% is relatively average but Atl has a history of creating efficient shots that are not maintained when a player leaves ATL. See Carroll, DeMarre. He went from a TS% of 57.5% and 60% when with ATL to 49% and 53% with an arguably better team in Toronto. If you pullup the shot charts, they have better efficiency in shot selection in ATL than most teams have. Hornacek certainly uses the right words to make the best use of this, but I'm not sure it is effectively implemented in NY. I would suggest a significant drop off in TS% in NY versus THJ's time in ATL.

All stats have weaknesses. Your argument initially was based on PER! And you clearly do know its limitations. You didn't address the opponent FG% stat. Also, I wouldn't call Timmy's TS% relatively average. Over a large sample of shots a difference that doesn't seem huge adds up to a lot of points. Only 4 teams in the league had higher TS%s than Timmy's. Regarding your point about Atlanta's system one player (Carroll) doesn't make a pattern. Timmy has had a TS% around .560 in 3 of his 4 seasons.

The knock on opponent FG% is that it is pretty much directly correlated to team FG#. So, it more.lokely to tell you which player plays on the best defensive team than which player plays the best defense. Except the best defensive players tend to play on the best defensive teams. So you can look at secondary comparisons like how players compare to their team versus how another player compares to their team. I did not look up THJ's Opponent FG% because it is so correlated. Id bet a dollar it is pretty close to the Team average for ATL (44%).

EwingsGlass wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid.

http://basketball.realgm.com/info/agent-client-list/Zach-Kurtin/690

It makes no sense. I have no logic to explain this contract, even days later I am baffled. If I were the league, I would be looking at this very closely. Somebody

I'm done with Mills.

Hardaway makes 18% of the cap. He's the 14th highest paid player at this position. He's being paid like a good starter which he certainly was last year and he's 24. If you goal is to assemble a young team that can grow together than this signing makes plenty of sense. You may not agree with it. Its not what I would do you but you are overreacting... by a lot. The gamble is did Hardaway have a breakout 2nd half or a good few months? Knicks could certainly lose that gamble, but this is not a big payday for an old over the hill player. When was the last time the Knicks took good gamble on young talent? In terms of upside which FA showed more promise than Hardaway last year? Good metrics, good +/-, he's been here before so the organization has a feel for what kind of guy he is... baffled? Really?

Dont mistaken this for being pro-Mills or even pro-Hardaway. I am neither, but the signing was not terrible. As for Mills what is his directive? Its its build a young team than fine. Whats the issue? When we are winning 30ish games and trading picks because the front office is telling fans we are one player away then yea... may the tar and feathering begin. This is the Knicks using the cap space from Rose, and older oft injured player to bring in a 24 year old up and coming player in the fold. Lets see what follows.

Using the 14th highest paid SG is a misleading concept. It gives very little clarity. He has one season with good metrics. His 15.2 PER makes him slightly above average player. The stat is modeled so that an average player as a 15 PER. He has one season a little better than average. The MLE is the salary is set as the average salary of all teams over the cap. Not precise, but an average player should make about $6MM. We can modify that number upwards by discounting for rookie scale contracts. But that upward modification is not $9mm. The argument that it is ONLY the 14th highest salary doesn't make it a good contract. You have to ascertain value. In a season where we do not expect to be extremely competitive, they need to hold out for value contracts. They could have and should have used the cap space to collect bona fide assets, not reach contracts.

This is a pattern. They overpaid Melo. They overpaid for Lance Thomas too. Noah's contract is obviously overstated. Head to head, I do not think that Hardaway beats out Courtney Lee for starting SG.

Its as though your Hardaway argument is intended to cheer us up. That if you hold the glass tilted to the left and close one eye while looking at it upwards, it kind of looks half full. But explain this. Why the 15% trade kicker? You will not have a good explanation for that. It makes no sense. Much like the Melo trade kicker/no trade clause. Is Hardaway that irreplaceable that you handout a poison pill contract to keep the Hawks from matching? Poison pill contracts almost always come back to bite the team receiving the player. Its bad policy. If it were the only player available at that position, I get it.

The directive is to add value to the franchise. No one should argue with that. Acquire assets that create value. Assets that are illiquid have no value. He left no bargaining position. If Hardaway becomes like Isaisah Thomas did in Hornacek's system, the value will be rationalized in that rear view mirror kind of way. But if we are being honest, that contract should have been no where near as high. It has just as high of a probability of burdening the Knicks beyond the expiration of Noah's contract burdening the Knicks. And for that reason it is a bad contract.

You can sell me on Hardaway. And I will cheer for him. But the contract is bad.

PER? People relied on PER back before the iPhone came out! There are much more important stats now.

Its an easy average with quick rules of thumb. We can break down VORP, TS% or any other stat you want. VORP overstates wins in its calculations. PER overstates usage ratio. But if you see the biases, it doesn't really matter. The point is he is an average player at best. High likelihood of regression. His breakout season looks like an outlier. Not a statistical progression.

What about on/off plus minus? Real plus minus? TS%? Opponent FG%? He's significantly better than average in all of those, and it wasn't just this past year.

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid.

http://basketball.realgm.com/info/agent-client-list/Zach-Kurtin/690

It makes no sense. I have no logic to explain this contract, even days later I am baffled. If I were the league, I would be looking at this very closely. Somebody

I'm done with Mills.

Hardaway makes 18% of the cap. He's the 14th highest paid player at this position. He's being paid like a good starter which he certainly was last year and he's 24. If you goal is to assemble a young team that can grow together than this signing makes plenty of sense. You may not agree with it. Its not what I would do you but you are overreacting... by a lot. The gamble is did Hardaway have a breakout 2nd half or a good few months? Knicks could certainly lose that gamble, but this is not a big payday for an old over the hill player. When was the last time the Knicks took good gamble on young talent? In terms of upside which FA showed more promise than Hardaway last year? Good metrics, good +/-, he's been here before so the organization has a feel for what kind of guy he is... baffled? Really?

Dont mistaken this for being pro-Mills or even pro-Hardaway. I am neither, but the signing was not terrible. As for Mills what is his directive? Its its build a young team than fine. Whats the issue? When we are winning 30ish games and trading picks because the front office is telling fans we are one player away then yea... may the tar and feathering begin. This is the Knicks using the cap space from Rose, and older oft injured player to bring in a 24 year old up and coming player in the fold. Lets see what follows.

Using the 14th highest paid SG is a misleading concept. It gives very little clarity. He has one season with good metrics. His 15.2 PER makes him slightly above average player. The stat is modeled so that an average player as a 15 PER. He has one season a little better than average. The MLE is the salary is set as the average salary of all teams over the cap. Not precise, but an average player should make about $6MM. We can modify that number upwards by discounting for rookie scale contracts. But that upward modification is not $9mm. The argument that it is ONLY the 14th highest salary doesn't make it a good contract. You have to ascertain value. In a season where we do not expect to be extremely competitive, they need to hold out for value contracts. They could have and should have used the cap space to collect bona fide assets, not reach contracts.

This is a pattern. They overpaid Melo. They overpaid for Lance Thomas too. Noah's contract is obviously overstated. Head to head, I do not think that Hardaway beats out Courtney Lee for starting SG.

Its as though your Hardaway argument is intended to cheer us up. That if you hold the glass tilted to the left and close one eye while looking at it upwards, it kind of looks half full. But explain this. Why the 15% trade kicker? You will not have a good explanation for that. It makes no sense. Much like the Melo trade kicker/no trade clause. Is Hardaway that irreplaceable that you handout a poison pill contract to keep the Hawks from matching? Poison pill contracts almost always come back to bite the team receiving the player. Its bad policy. If it were the only player available at that position, I get it.

The directive is to add value to the franchise. No one should argue with that. Acquire assets that create value. Assets that are illiquid have no value. He left no bargaining position. If Hardaway becomes like Isaisah Thomas did in Hornacek's system, the value will be rationalized in that rear view mirror kind of way. But if we are being honest, that contract should have been no where near as high. It has just as high of a probability of burdening the Knicks beyond the expiration of Noah's contract burdening the Knicks. And for that reason it is a bad contract.

You can sell me on Hardaway. And I will cheer for him. But the contract is bad.

PER? People relied on PER back before the iPhone came out! There are much more important stats now.

Its an easy average with quick rules of thumb. We can break down VORP, TS% or any other stat you want. VORP overstates wins in its calculations. PER overstates usage ratio. But if you see the biases, it doesn't really matter. The point is he is an average player at best. High likelihood of regression. His breakout season looks like an outlier. Not a statistical progression.

What about on/off plus minus? Real plus minus? TS%? Opponent FG%? He's significantly better than average in all of those, and it wasn't just this past year.

How does On/Off plus minus tell you anything you can meaningfully compare to other players? It is so team specific. Even real plus minus is biased as it doesn't adjust for opposing play. It relies on generalized averages. It tells you if the team outscored the other team while he was on the floor. If I replaced Tim Hardaway with Gary Harris in that Hawks lineup, what would happen? You cannot tell me.

I am also not arguing that Hardaway didn't have a slightly above average season. But if you only use that season as the indicator of value, you have a high risk of a bad contract based on stat regression. I'll note that Bazemore had a horrific season and Hardaway rarely played while Bazemore was on the floor. His plus minus is skewed by virtue of him not being Bazemore.

http://http://www.82games.com/1617/1617ATL2.HTM http://

Congratulations, you and your +/- are the proud new owner of Not Bazemore.

TS% is relatively average but Atl has a history of creating efficient shots that are not maintained when a player leaves ATL. See Carroll, DeMarre. He went from a TS% of 57.5% and 60% when with ATL to 49% and 53% with an arguably better team in Toronto. If you pullup the shot charts, they have better efficiency in shot selection in ATL than most teams have. Hornacek certainly uses the right words to make the best use of this, but I'm not sure it is effectively implemented in NY. I would suggest a significant drop off in TS% in NY versus THJ's time in ATL.

All stats have weaknesses. Your argument initially was based on PER! And you clearly do know its limitations. You didn't address the opponent FG% stat. Also, I wouldn't call Timmy's TS% relatively average. Over a large sample of shots a difference that doesn't seem huge adds up to a lot of points. Only 4 teams in the league had higher TS%s than Timmy's. Regarding your point about Atlanta's system one player (Carroll) doesn't make a pattern. Timmy has had a TS% around .560 in 3 of his 4 seasons.

The knock on opponent FG% is that it is pretty much directly correlated to team FG#. So, it more.lokely to tell you which player plays on the best defensive team than which player plays the best defense. Except the best defensive players tend to play on the best defensive teams. So you can look at secondary comparisons like how players compare to their team versus how another player compares to their team. I did not look up THJ's Opponent FG% because it is so correlated. Id bet a dollar it is pretty close to the Team average for ATL (44%).

EwingsGlass wrote:Sounds about right. A little better than I expected. If you put into words what opposing FG% means, it's pretty clear that it is a function of team defense as much as individual effort. Did Hardaway really change so much as a player that he went from -4.2 DBPM with NY to -1.2 DBPM in Atlanta (before his D league stint?) That 3 point drop is the effect of Team defense. So I'll concede he has the possibility of not being a defensive liability. But the greater likelihood is that his stats back in NY will regress toward where he was before we traded him.

This speaks to the concepts of building stronger franchise values before worrying about winning. Establishing a consistent approach to team defense.

I am biased against everyone in the existing management structure and particularly Mills. I'd be looking for the next Theo Epstein of the NBA rather than recycling guys who haven't had the ability to get it done.

Even if I said this price was market for SGs and threw out all my statistical belief that he will regress in NY and pour the Kool Aid on. What was the benefit of forcing the issue by adding trade kickers?

What difference is there in the franchise if I start Lee over Hardaway? Or Dotson? Or Baker?

Do you believe Hardaway is the piece that puts us over the top?

At best you are saying it was market price. There is no value add. This year we were supposed to be shopping in the bargain basement. With coupons. And govt subsidies. Instead we paid price for Air Jordan's on the street that might be knockoffs

EwingsGlass wrote:Sounds about right. A little better than I expected. If you put into words what opposing FG% means, it's pretty clear that it is a function of team defense as much as individual effort. Did Hardaway really change so much as a player that he went from -4.2 DBPM with NY to -1.2 DBPM in Atlanta (before his D league stint?) That 3 point drop is the effect of Team defense. So I'll concede he has the possibility of not being a defensive liability. But the greater likelihood is that his stats back in NY will regress toward where he was before we traded him.

This speaks to the concepts of building stronger franchise values before worrying about winning. Establishing a consistent approach to team defense.

I am biased against everyone in the existing management structure and particularly Mills. I'd be looking for the next Theo Epstein of the NBA rather than recycling guys who haven't had the ability to get it done.

Even if I said this price was market for SGs and threw out all my statistical belief that he will regress in NY and pour the Kool Aid on. What was the benefit of forcing the issue by adding trade kickers?

What difference is there in the franchise if I start Lee over Hardaway? Or Dotson? Or Baker?

Do you believe Hardaway is the piece that puts us over the top?

At best you are saying it was market price. There is no value add. This year we were supposed to be shopping in the bargain basement. With coupons. And govt subsidies. Instead we paid price for Air Jordan's on the street that might be knockoffs

GustavBahler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:Sounds about right. A little better than I expected. If you put into words what opposing FG% means, it's pretty clear that it is a function of team defense as much as individual effort. Did Hardaway really change so much as a player that he went from -4.2 DBPM with NY to -1.2 DBPM in Atlanta (before his D league stint?) That 3 point drop is the effect of Team defense. So I'll concede he has the possibility of not being a defensive liability. But the greater likelihood is that his stats back in NY will regress toward where he was before we traded him.

This speaks to the concepts of building stronger franchise values before worrying about winning. Establishing a consistent approach to team defense.

I am biased against everyone in the existing management structure and particularly Mills. I'd be looking for the next Theo Epstein of the NBA rather than recycling guys who haven't had the ability to get it done.

Even if I said this price was market for SGs and threw out all my statistical belief that he will regress in NY and pour the Kool Aid on. What was the benefit of forcing the issue by adding trade kickers?

What difference is there in the franchise if I start Lee over Hardaway? Or Dotson? Or Baker?

Do you believe Hardaway is the piece that puts us over the top?

At best you are saying it was market price. There is no value add. This year we were supposed to be shopping in the bargain basement. With coupons. And govt subsidies. Instead we paid price for Air Jordan's on the street that might be knockoffs

the bold is your problem. You cant see Hardaway's positives or potential positives because of your own bias towards the guys that signed him. Kinda makes it tough to discuss no? For you Hardway was player that the Knicks foolishly let go, who blossomed in a different culture and who was having a breakout season. Now since the KNicks signed him he stinks and will most likely regress back to anything negative he showed prior. Probably best to just wait and see

You make it sound like its unfair to be skeptical of the Knicks front office.

There are legit reasons this could be a bad signing (small sample size, THjr regresses, contract year)
There are legit reasons this could be a good signing (player trending upward on both sides of court, good personality, good stats and metrics, 25 YO)

For once Knicks gambled on youth instead of an guy coming off injuries or a toxic environment.

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:Sounds about right. A little better than I expected. If you put into words what opposing FG% means, it's pretty clear that it is a function of team defense as much as individual effort. Did Hardaway really change so much as a player that he went from -4.2 DBPM with NY to -1.2 DBPM in Atlanta (before his D league stint?) That 3 point drop is the effect of Team defense. So I'll concede he has the possibility of not being a defensive liability. But the greater likelihood is that his stats back in NY will regress toward where he was before we traded him.

This speaks to the concepts of building stronger franchise values before worrying about winning. Establishing a consistent approach to team defense.

I am biased against everyone in the existing management structure and particularly Mills. I'd be looking for the next Theo Epstein of the NBA rather than recycling guys who haven't had the ability to get it done.

Even if I said this price was market for SGs and threw out all my statistical belief that he will regress in NY and pour the Kool Aid on. What was the benefit of forcing the issue by adding trade kickers?

What difference is there in the franchise if I start Lee over Hardaway? Or Dotson? Or Baker?

Do you believe Hardaway is the piece that puts us over the top?

At best you are saying it was market price. There is no value add. This year we were supposed to be shopping in the bargain basement. With coupons. And govt subsidies. Instead we paid price for Air Jordan's on the street that might be knockoffs

the bold is your problem. You cant see Hardaway's positives or potential positives because of your own bias towards the guys that signed him. Kinda makes it tough to discuss no? For you Hardway was player that the Knicks foolishly let go, who blossomed in a different culture and who was having a breakout season. Now since the KNicks signed him he stinks and will most likely regress back to anything negative he showed prior. Probably best to just wait and see

You make it sound like its unfair to be skeptical of the Knicks front office.

There's a difference between skepticism and blinding bias.

GustavBahler wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:Sounds about right. A little better than I expected. If you put into words what opposing FG% means, it's pretty clear that it is a function of team defense as much as individual effort. Did Hardaway really change so much as a player that he went from -4.2 DBPM with NY to -1.2 DBPM in Atlanta (before his D league stint?) That 3 point drop is the effect of Team defense. So I'll concede he has the possibility of not being a defensive liability. But the greater likelihood is that his stats back in NY will regress toward where he was before we traded him.

This speaks to the concepts of building stronger franchise values before worrying about winning. Establishing a consistent approach to team defense.

I am biased against everyone in the existing management structure and particularly Mills. I'd be looking for the next Theo Epstein of the NBA rather than recycling guys who haven't had the ability to get it done.

Even if I said this price was market for SGs and threw out all my statistical belief that he will regress in NY and pour the Kool Aid on. What was the benefit of forcing the issue by adding trade kickers?

What difference is there in the franchise if I start Lee over Hardaway? Or Dotson? Or Baker?

Do you believe Hardaway is the piece that puts us over the top?

At best you are saying it was market price. There is no value add. This year we were supposed to be shopping in the bargain basement. With coupons. And govt subsidies. Instead we paid price for Air Jordan's on the street that might be knockoffs

the bold is your problem. You cant see Hardaway's positives or potential positives because of your own bias towards the guys that signed him. Kinda makes it tough to discuss no? For you Hardway was player that the Knicks foolishly let go, who blossomed in a different culture and who was having a breakout season. Now since the KNicks signed him he stinks and will most likely regress back to anything negative he showed prior. Probably best to just wait and see

You make it sound like its unfair to be skeptical of the Knicks front office.

There's a difference between skepticism and blinding bias.

Exactly what has the front office done in the last 18 years that has blinded fans to anything?

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:Sounds about right. A little better than I expected. If you put into words what opposing FG% means, it's pretty clear that it is a function of team defense as much as individual effort. Did Hardaway really change so much as a player that he went from -4.2 DBPM with NY to -1.2 DBPM in Atlanta (before his D league stint?) That 3 point drop is the effect of Team defense. So I'll concede he has the possibility of not being a defensive liability. But the greater likelihood is that his stats back in NY will regress toward where he was before we traded him.

This speaks to the concepts of building stronger franchise values before worrying about winning. Establishing a consistent approach to team defense.

I am biased against everyone in the existing management structure and particularly Mills. I'd be looking for the next Theo Epstein of the NBA rather than recycling guys who haven't had the ability to get it done.

Even if I said this price was market for SGs and threw out all my statistical belief that he will regress in NY and pour the Kool Aid on. What was the benefit of forcing the issue by adding trade kickers?

What difference is there in the franchise if I start Lee over Hardaway? Or Dotson? Or Baker?

Do you believe Hardaway is the piece that puts us over the top?

At best you are saying it was market price. There is no value add. This year we were supposed to be shopping in the bargain basement. With coupons. And govt subsidies. Instead we paid price for Air Jordan's on the street that might be knockoffs

the bold is your problem. You cant see Hardaway's positives or potential positives because of your own bias towards the guys that signed him. Kinda makes it tough to discuss no? For you Hardway was player that the Knicks foolishly let go, who blossomed in a different culture and who was having a breakout season. Now since the KNicks signed him he stinks and will most likely regress back to anything negative he showed prior. Probably best to just wait and see

You make it sound like its unfair to be skeptical of the Knicks front office.

There's a difference between skepticism and blinding bias.

Exactly what has the front office done in the last 18 years that has blinded fans to anything?

There's no generic "the front office." The current president is a new human being who has never had a chance to implement his philosophy and build a team before. Sure, there is definitely reason for some skepticism since Dolan is at the top. The skepticism becomes blinding bias when you are only willing to look at the negative information about incoming players and major decisions though.

So let me get this straight. After almost two decades with this organization, some serious lapses in judgement, and having a part in enabling some of the worst behavior you can imagine in an any office. The same exec who told Dolan to hire Isiah. You're actually saying that the clock starts now?

Are you kidding me? The "generic" front office consists mostly of holdovers from failed regimes who took this franchise nowhere. They have been generically awful and deserve all the criticism amd skepticism they get.

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:Sounds about right. A little better than I expected. If you put into words what opposing FG% means, it's pretty clear that it is a function of team defense as much as individual effort. Did Hardaway really change so much as a player that he went from -4.2 DBPM with NY to -1.2 DBPM in Atlanta (before his D league stint?) That 3 point drop is the effect of Team defense. So I'll concede he has the possibility of not being a defensive liability. But the greater likelihood is that his stats back in NY will regress toward where he was before we traded him.

This speaks to the concepts of building stronger franchise values before worrying about winning. Establishing a consistent approach to team defense.

I am biased against everyone in the existing management structure and particularly Mills. I'd be looking for the next Theo Epstein of the NBA rather than recycling guys who haven't had the ability to get it done.

Even if I said this price was market for SGs and threw out all my statistical belief that he will regress in NY and pour the Kool Aid on. What was the benefit of forcing the issue by adding trade kickers?

What difference is there in the franchise if I start Lee over Hardaway? Or Dotson? Or Baker?

Do you believe Hardaway is the piece that puts us over the top?

At best you are saying it was market price. There is no value add. This year we were supposed to be shopping in the bargain basement. With coupons. And govt subsidies. Instead we paid price for Air Jordan's on the street that might be knockoffs

the bold is your problem. You cant see Hardaway's positives or potential positives because of your own bias towards the guys that signed him. Kinda makes it tough to discuss no? For you Hardway was player that the Knicks foolishly let go, who blossomed in a different culture and who was having a breakout season. Now since the KNicks signed him he stinks and will most likely regress back to anything negative he showed prior. Probably best to just wait and see

You make it sound like its unfair to be skeptical of the Knicks front office.

There's a difference between skepticism and blinding bias.

Exactly what has the front office done in the last 18 years that has blinded fans to anything?

There's no generic "the front office." The current president is a new human being who has never had a chance to implement his philosophy and build a team before. Sure, there is definitely reason for some skepticism since Dolan is at the top. The skepticism becomes blinding bias when you are only willing to look at the negative information about incoming players and major decisions though.

So let me get this straight. After almost two decades with this organization, some serious lapses in judgement, and having a part in enabling some of the worst behavior you can imagine in an any office. The same exec who told Dolan to hire Isiah. You're actually saying that the clock starts now?

Are you kidding me? The "generic" front office consists mostly of holdovers from failed regimes who took this franchise nowhere. They have been generically awful and deserve all the criticism amd skepticism they get.

No point in getting into the same arguments that have gone on in so many threads but I don't give blame to someone who's third in power.
I'm not gonna go back 15 years but I don't remember people opposing the Isiah hiring at the time. He just turned out terrible. There was a logic at the time behind seeing if the HOF PG could build a team.

Isiah had just come from leaving the craptors on bad terms, bankrupting the CBA after more than 40 years in existence. The only reason fans like myself were willing to give him a chance (not that we had much choice) was because the alternative at the time was Layden.

Think it was more about change than who was doing the changing. Strongly disagree that Mills has no power. His fingerprints are all over some of the biggest decisions this franchise has made since joining the Knicks.

The latest being passing up on a championship winning exec who LeBron praised as he was going out the door, likely in favor of the player who recently was named as having the worst max contract in NBA history. Looks like Houston will be going from a grossly overpaid player, to a grossly overpaid exec with no track record.

Mills was the one who has convinced Dolan to make these calls, like promoting himself. Does that sound like someone down on the food chain? At some point Mills needs to be held accountable for his time here. With any other franchise, in any other sport, this would be considered reasonable.

fishmike wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:

fishmike wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:Sounds about right. A little better than I expected. If you put into words what opposing FG% means, it's pretty clear that it is a function of team defense as much as individual effort. Did Hardaway really change so much as a player that he went from -4.2 DBPM with NY to -1.2 DBPM in Atlanta (before his D league stint?) That 3 point drop is the effect of Team defense. So I'll concede he has the possibility of not being a defensive liability. But the greater likelihood is that his stats back in NY will regress toward where he was before we traded him.

This speaks to the concepts of building stronger franchise values before worrying about winning. Establishing a consistent approach to team defense.

I am biased against everyone in the existing management structure and particularly Mills. I'd be looking for the next Theo Epstein of the NBA rather than recycling guys who haven't had the ability to get it done.

Even if I said this price was market for SGs and threw out all my statistical belief that he will regress in NY and pour the Kool Aid on. What was the benefit of forcing the issue by adding trade kickers?

What difference is there in the franchise if I start Lee over Hardaway? Or Dotson? Or Baker?

Do you believe Hardaway is the piece that puts us over the top?

At best you are saying it was market price. There is no value add. This year we were supposed to be shopping in the bargain basement. With coupons. And govt subsidies. Instead we paid price for Air Jordan's on the street that might be knockoffs

the bold is your problem. You cant see Hardaway's positives or potential positives because of your own bias towards the guys that signed him. Kinda makes it tough to discuss no? For you Hardway was player that the Knicks foolishly let go, who blossomed in a different culture and who was having a breakout season. Now since the KNicks signed him he stinks and will most likely regress back to anything negative he showed prior. Probably best to just wait and see

You make it sound like its unfair to be skeptical of the Knicks front office.

exact opposite. Knicks FO is a poopstorm. My point is that is what has thrown shade on his opinion of Hardway, not anything Hardway himself has done or hasnt done. Seems like his ultimate stance is if the Knicks signed him it must be bad, so lets find the bad. My stance is if thats your bias why bother to throw shade in the first place. Just let it play out.

There are legit reasons this could be a bad signing (small sample size, THjr regresses, contract year)
There are legit reasons this could be a good signing (player trending upward on both sides of court, good personality, good stats and metrics, 25 YO)

For once Knicks gambled on youth instead of an guy coming off injuries or a toxic environment.

Im sure EG will have his own reasons, but I think its more than the player. Its bidding against ourselves again. Bringing back someone who was having trouble handling the pressure at MSG, and Mills just gave that guy 20 million more than what the Hawks would have likely paid him. Not to mention a player option if THJ wants to bolt.

Did we really need him that badly, now, on those terms, and for 1/5 of the cap? Cant blame people for having a bias against the front office, they've earned it. Hope this investment pays dividends, really do.

We arent bidding againt ourselves. We are bidding against the Hawks in a silent auction. Every contract to an RFA is an overbid. If it wasnt it would be pointless to make the offer at all no? I would not have made this move. I would have stayed flexible and probably used the cap space to get more back in a Melo trade. That being said this is not the typical overpay bid against ourselves type of scenario. Young up and coming talent is the toughest to acquire. Its going to take a resource, trades, picks or in this case cap space.

I hope hes good also. I think if the situation was reversed and we kept Timmy from say the Nets making that big offer we would match and have a very different set of feelings about it

Technically no fish, but the amount was generous enough to qualify because I dont believe the Hawks were going to come close to that offer. If the Hawks beat a lower offer, it wouldn't have been a big deal IMO.

The trade kicker, the player option on top of the very generous salary, I dont see why they had to do both. The big contract and the incentives. Knicks might argue that it was done with the Hawks in mind, but what will it do to the Knicks down the road? More often than not it bites us in the behind. Like I said, hope Hardaway has a great season we need some good news.