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EwingsGlass
Posts: 27652 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 4/29/2005 Member: #893 USA |
fishmike wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid. Using the 14th highest paid SG is a misleading concept. It gives very little clarity. He has one season with good metrics. His 15.2 PER makes him slightly above average player. The stat is modeled so that an average player as a 15 PER. He has one season a little better than average. The MLE is the salary is set as the average salary of all teams over the cap. Not precise, but an average player should make about $6MM. We can modify that number upwards by discounting for rookie scale contracts. But that upward modification is not $9mm. The argument that it is ONLY the 14th highest salary doesn't make it a good contract. You have to ascertain value. In a season where we do not expect to be extremely competitive, they need to hold out for value contracts. They could have and should have used the cap space to collect bona fide assets, not reach contracts. This is a pattern. They overpaid Melo. They overpaid for Lance Thomas too. Noah's contract is obviously overstated. Head to head, I do not think that Hardaway beats out Courtney Lee for starting SG. Its as though your Hardaway argument is intended to cheer us up. That if you hold the glass tilted to the left and close one eye while looking at it upwards, it kind of looks half full. But explain this. Why the 15% trade kicker? You will not have a good explanation for that. It makes no sense. Much like the Melo trade kicker/no trade clause. Is Hardaway that irreplaceable that you handout a poison pill contract to keep the Hawks from matching? Poison pill contracts almost always come back to bite the team receiving the player. Its bad policy. If it were the only player available at that position, I get it. The directive is to add value to the franchise. No one should argue with that. Acquire assets that create value. Assets that are illiquid have no value. He left no bargaining position. If Hardaway becomes like Isaisah Thomas did in Hornacek's system, the value will be rationalized in that rear view mirror kind of way. But if we are being honest, that contract should have been no where near as high. It has just as high of a probability of burdening the Knicks beyond the expiration of Noah's contract burdening the Knicks. And for that reason it is a bad contract. You can sell me on Hardaway. And I will cheer for him. But the contract is bad. You know I gonna spin wit it
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Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
EwingsGlass wrote:fishmike wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid. PER? People relied on PER back before the iPhone came out! There are much more important stats now. |
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EwingsGlass
Posts: 27652 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 4/29/2005 Member: #893 USA |
Bonn1997 wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:fishmike wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid. Its an easy average with quick rules of thumb. We can break down VORP, TS% or any other stat you want. VORP overstates wins in its calculations. PER overstates usage ratio. But if you see the biases, it doesn't really matter. The point is he is an average player at best. High likelihood of regression. His breakout season looks like an outlier. Not a statistical progression. You know I gonna spin wit it
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Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
EwingsGlass wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:fishmike wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid. What about on/off plus minus? Real plus minus? TS%? Opponent FG%? He's significantly better than average in all of those, and it wasn't just this past year. |
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GustavBahler
Posts: 42864 Alba Posts: 15 Joined: 7/12/2010 Member: #3186 |
EwingsGlass wrote:fishmike wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid. Amazing that a man who can hire anyone he wants. A billionaire in the world capital of deal making, cant find executives who know how to make a good deal. It also exposes another problem that was discussed, in an article that someone posted about the Knicks in another thread. The Knicks allegedly not keeping in regular touch with their counterparts across the league. Never mind not being properly in the loop, talking to other teams on a regular basis lets you get to know the execs you are bargaining with. Keeping in touch is a good way to find an edge, or at least building good relationships with other teams. Does not appear to be the case these days. |
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EwingsGlass
Posts: 27652 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 4/29/2005 Member: #893 USA |
Bonn1997 wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:fishmike wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid. Bonn1997 wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:fishmike wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:The Hardaway signing makes so little sense, I am inclined to say that Hardaway's agent is giving somebody a piece on the back end. Literally no bargaining position. No other clients of note (Mason Plumlee excluded of course). There is no reason for a 15% trade kicker based on bargaining position. Even poison pill logic on the restricted nature of THJ's free agency doesn't validate a 15% kicker. Only logic is more commission if paid. How does On/Off plus minus tell you anything you can meaningfully compare to other players? It is so team specific. Even real plus minus is biased as it doesn't adjust for opposing play. It relies on generalized averages. It tells you if the team outscored the other team while he was on the floor. If I replaced Tim Hardaway with Gary Harris in that Hawks lineup, what would happen? You cannot tell me. I am also not arguing that Hardaway didn't have a slightly above average season. But if you only use that season as the indicator of value, you have a high risk of a bad contract based on stat regression. I'll note that Bazemore had a horrific season and Hardaway rarely played while Bazemore was on the floor. His plus minus is skewed by virtue of him not being Bazemore. http://http://www.82games.com/1617/1617ATL2.HTM http:// Congratulations, you and your +/- are the proud new owner of Not Bazemore. TS% is relatively average but Atl has a history of creating efficient shots that are not maintained when a player leaves ATL. See Carroll, DeMarre. He went from a TS% of 57.5% and 60% when with ATL to 49% and 53% with an arguably better team in Toronto. If you pullup the shot charts, they have better efficiency in shot selection in ATL than most teams have. Hornacek certainly uses the right words to make the best use of this, but I'm not sure it is effectively implemented in NY. I would suggest a significant drop off in TS% in NY versus THJ's time in ATL. You know I gonna spin wit it
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