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Read before drafting your next HS phenom
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OldFan
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6/25/2005  11:19 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/26/sports/basketball/26score.html?
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Vmart
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6/25/2005  11:33 PM
Posted by OldFan:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/26/sports/basketball/26score.html?

We can also look at it this way also they don't like to take anyone from college much less HS. You think if the had the number one pick the year LeBron cameout they would have made Darko or Melo the number one pick. I highly doubt it. The Spurs have a superstar in Duncan and the team is always in a win now mode so a High School kid that is raw doesn't fit their system.
TheloniusMonk
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6/25/2005  11:34 PM
Posted by OldFan:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/26/sports/basketball/26score.html?

Thanx for the link. That's a good read with a different perspective than all the hype we usually hear this time of year surrounding nba hopefuls.
'You can catch me in Hollis at the hero shop!' -Tony Yayo
crzymdups
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6/25/2005  11:42 PM
The Spurs also only had one lotto pick for the entire 1990s when David Robinson was injured, and they won not just the lotto of that draft, but one of the biggest jackpots ever. Drafting Tim Duncan gives you the ability to look very smart...
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OldFan
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6/25/2005  11:53 PM
Posted by crzymdups:

The Spurs also only had one lotto pick for the entire 1990s when David Robinson was injured, and they won not just the lotto of that draft, but one of the biggest jackpots ever. Drafting Tim Duncan gives you the ability to look very smart...

The interesting part of the article to me wasn't about the Spurs - it was about the difficulty of projecting the success of young players and how often they are over-rated.
diderotn
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6/26/2005  12:37 AM
None of the teams that have gone to the finals the last 5 years had a high school player on their roster. I know that most of you will point Kobe out of that group, but Kobe spent at least 5 years in the league before he won his first championship. However, for a team like the Knicks we have no choice...We are not building to win a championship next season.....
The true Knickabocker..........
sbensol74
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6/26/2005  12:55 AM
i still honestly believe the spurs tanked that season on purpose for duncan
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Rich
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6/26/2005  1:12 AM
I still want Bynum.
technomaster
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6/26/2005  3:05 AM
How did the statisticians rate "performance" in the draft? Based on their career averages? It seems as if the 2001 draft really pulled things down on the productivity charts for high schoolers.
Kwame/Tyson/Eddy/DeSangana must be really pulling things down. The way I see it, the most productive guys in this draft class based on last season were (not in order):

Gilbert Arenas, (30), Pau Gasol (3), Jason Richardson (5), Joe Johnson (10), Troy Murphy (14), Radmanovic (12), Tony Parker (29), Tyson Chandler (2), Eddy Curry (4), Brendan Haywood... Honorable mentions: Jamaal Tinsley (28-incomplete), Zach Randolph (19-incomplete), Richard Jefferson (15-incomplete season)

Based on this draft, it looks like international players make excellent top picks... and sophomores do actually make outstanding values (Arenas pumped up their value bigtime!). Overall, I still look at almost all drafts as having 10 good/great players, 10 bench/fringe starters, and about 40 players who'll be out of the league within 5 years.

In spite of everything this article says, looking at the all-NBA teams of the past 2 seasons makes you think about the validity of this article. Let's say these are unofficially the top 15 players in the league, more or less. In 2003-2004, you have 4 high school players, and 3 international players. In 2004-2005, 5 high school players, 1 international.

Based on the past decade, it sure looks to me that a high school player would eventually become the top player in his draft class about 50% of the time. (KG, Amare, Kobe, T-Mac, LeBron)... Kobe's draft year also produced another perennial MVP candidate from HS, Jermaine O'Neal.

I'll agree that it's easier to predict how a player will turn out after 2 or more years of college. They've had a second season to prove that they're not just a 1 year wonder. If they have a bad 2nd year, then their value drops. But that's if they stick around long enough.

No doubt that for teams, younger players have a much higher risk, but
the reward is potentially much greater. Most juniors/seniors have already proven they'll amount to nothing in the NBA, thus are chosen later in the draft.
“That was two, two from the heart.” - John Starks
OldFan
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6/27/2005  12:41 PM
Posted by technomaster:

How did the statisticians rate "performance" in the draft? Based on their career averages? It seems as if the 2001 draft really pulled things down on the productivity charts for high schoolers.
Kwame/Tyson/Eddy/DeSangana must be really pulling things down. The way I see it, the most productive guys in this draft class based on last season were (not in order):

Gilbert Arenas, (30), Pau Gasol (3), Jason Richardson (5), Joe Johnson (10), Troy Murphy (14), Radmanovic (12), Tony Parker (29), Tyson Chandler (2), Eddy Curry (4), Brendan Haywood... Honorable mentions: Jamaal Tinsley (28-incomplete), Zach Randolph (19-incomplete), Richard Jefferson (15-incomplete season)

Based on this draft, it looks like international players make excellent top picks... and sophomores do actually make outstanding values (Arenas pumped up their value bigtime!). Overall, I still look at almost all drafts as having 10 good/great players, 10 bench/fringe starters, and about 40 players who'll be out of the league within 5 years.

In spite of everything this article says, looking at the all-NBA teams of the past 2 seasons makes you think about the validity of this article. Let's say these are unofficially the top 15 players in the league, more or less. In 2003-2004, you have 4 high school players, and 3 international players. In 2004-2005, 5 high school players, 1 international.

Based on the past decade, it sure looks to me that a high school player would eventually become the top player in his draft class about 50% of the time. (KG, Amare, Kobe, T-Mac, LeBron)... Kobe's draft year also produced another perennial MVP candidate from HS, Jermaine O'Neal.

I'll agree that it's easier to predict how a player will turn out after 2 or more years of college. They've had a second season to prove that they're not just a 1 year wonder. If they have a bad 2nd year, then their value drops. But that's if they stick around long enough.

No doubt that for teams, younger players have a much higher risk, but
the reward is potentially much greater. Most juniors/seniors have already proven they'll amount to nothing in the NBA, thus are chosen later in the draft.

As I understand the study the risk-reward is factored in. It is basically saying that your average player out of college drafted at position N has turned out better then the average HS Player drafted at N.

The weakness in the study is the limited time span that it has to work with and the limited amount of time the players careers have been followed. What the study indicates is that teams have over-valued the "reward" of drafting HS. players.
OasisBU
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6/27/2005  1:01 PM
I think high school big men are probably harder to pick then HS swing men who will turn into stars - a big man can have size but that doesnt necessarily translate into something good in the NBA...see Kwame Brown. Although I guess there have been a fiar amount of busts at the 2-3 as well.

Picking a HSer or a Euro is rolling the dice big time. But this is a draft, no matter what you pick its a gamble.

I do think when the draft rolls around, a lot of players get overrated. This time next year I bet 75% of the names listed on this board as people who should be drafted wont even be remembered.
"If at first you don't succeed, then maybe you just SUCK." Kenny Powers
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