Great article I just found regarding draft busts, written before the 2004 draft. How ironic is it that some of the same "bust" profiles fit some of the cats we keep hearing about?

Frye - The Workout Warrior
Green - The Athlete/The Clones
Warrik - The Athlete

etc.

enjoy
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Eight Common Profiles of a Bust
By David Mosley, Staff Writer
April 30th, 2004

1. The Overrated College Star - He repeatedly carried his team to the NCAA tournament, he was selected to All-Conference and All-American teams, and he can’t dribble with his left hand. WHAT? In every draft, there are a few college all-stars with all the accolades and awards who just can’t make the transition from great college player to great NBA player. What is the problem here? Maybe it was the program and the amazing surrounding talent that enabled an average player to look much better than he really was. How many Duke players have we seen in recent years who were unbelievable in college but just average in the pros? Some players are just great college players and that’s it. However, every June some general manager will cave into the pressure of drafting one of these guys based purely off of their college careers and not off of pure talent.
Recent Examples: Mateen Cleaves 14th pick in 2000, Trajan Langdon 11th pick in 1999, Ed O’Bannon 9th pick in 1995, Calbert Cheaney 6th pick in 1993, Mark Macon 8th pick in 1991
Possible fits in 2004: Jameer Nelson, Josh Childress, Luke Jackson

2. The Tweener - Whether it’s the combo guard, the diminutive shooting guard, the slow small forward or the undersized power forwards and centers, the “Tweeners” can often cause NBA general managers headaches of enormous proportions. There is nothing like watching a 6’2” college shooting guard jack up 7 shots in 6 minutes while playing backup point guard, or watching a 6’6” college power forward get continuously dusted by a mediocre NBA small forward. The “Tweener” usually starts out as a lottery pick because he has been using his Charles Barkley height (add 2 inches) all through college. Once the scouts find out the “Tweener’s” true height though, his stock can drop faster than Paris Hilton’s underwear. That is until one naive team is convinced they can mold him into a different position. D’oh! That’s when we have the makings of a bust. The only successful “Tweeners” are the ones who were allowed to play their natural positions, such as Allen Iverson, Charles Barkey, and Larry Johnson.
Recent Examples: Kirk Haston 16th pick in 2001, Keyon Dooling 10th pick in 2000, Shawn Respert 8th pick in 1995, Khalid Reeves 12th pick in 1994
Possible fits in 2004: Ben Gordon, Devin Harris, Kris Humphries

3. The Stiff - The “Stiff” is the butt of everyone’s favorite jokes… the big 7-foot stiffs. Every team has one on the end of the bench. They are usually nothing more than overpaid practice dummies with a goofy smile and a bad haircut. Fans always ask: what idiot wasted a lottery pick on that stiff on the bench? We all know that teams are always looking for a center. “You can’t teach height”…right? Well, maybe so, but you can teach general managers to stop wasting good picks on fouls for Shaq. Stop the madness. Enough already!
Recent Examples: Chris Mihm 7th pick in 2000, Joel Przybilla 8th pick in 2000, Alek Redojevic 12th pick in 1999, Vitaly Potapenko 12th pick in 1996, Todd Fuller 12th pick in 1996
Possible fits in 2004: Pavel Podkolzine, Kosta Perovic, Andrew Bogut

4. The “I Told You You’re Not Ready” Kids – Unfortunately, more and more young kids are being pushed into the NBA by greedy agents, greedy family members and/or dumb friends. Sometimes these kids are ready to make the jump, but often, they are not. Many of these kids often take 4 or 5 years before they start to produce in the NBA. The problem is that not all teams are willing to wait that long, and these kids end up getting traded from team to team, destroying their fragile egos. In some of the least favorable cases, kids are outright waived and must then rely on the cutthroat world of minor league ball to get back to the NBA. These players are now the toughest players for teams to evaluate because it’s nearly impossible to project how a kid will react to the rigors of the NBA. Many times, these players can’t even qualify as busts because by draft day, their stock has dropped so low that they end up getting drafted in the 2nd round, like Omar Cook, James Lang, Ousmane Cisse or even worse, undrafted like DeAngelo Collins.
Recent Examples: Sagana Diop 8th pick in 2001, Rodney White 9th pick in 2001, Jonathan Bender 5th pick in 2001, Leon Smith 29th pick in 1999
Possible fits in 2004: Sebastian Telfair, Ivan Chiriaev, JR Smith

5. The Workout Warriors - These are the guys that nobody pegged as a lottery pick or even a 1st rounder in April, but by June, they have miraculously worked their way up every team’s draft board. It all starts with a good showing at one of the pre-draft workouts, followed by amazing individual workouts, highlighted by fast 40 yard dash times, unreal vertical leaps, and an amazing game of H-O-R-S-E versus the team’s assistant coaching staff. Unfortunately, everyone overlooked actual game tape of the player or the fact that he hasn’t averaged double digits since high school. Nope, all that matters is the fact that he dunked a ball 42 times in row or he dribbled through cones like a globetrotter. Of course, once the season starts, reality sets in and we all realize we’ve been duped.
Recent Examples: Kedrick Brown 11th pick in 2001, Steven Hunter 15th pick in 2001, Antonio Daniels 4th pick in 1997.
Possible fits in 2004: I’ll let you know in June.

6. The Athlete - He’s got a body that would make the Rock jealous, he can dunk over a refrigerator, and he outran a zebra on Man vs. Beast 6. Now, if we could only teach him to shoot and dribble… The “Athlete” is always drafted on his potential and not on actual basketball talent. Usually, his scouting report reads, “Great defender, quick feet, unbelievable first step, amazing leaping ability, needs to work on ball handling and shooting, low basketball IQ.” I don’t know about you, but I’ll take smart guys who can shoot and dribble over the “Athlete” any day.
Recent Examples: Stromile Swift 2nd pick in 2000, Jerome Moiso 11th pick in 2000, Donnell Harvey 22nd in 2000, Corey Benjamin 28th pick in 1999, Tariq Abdul Wahad 11th pick in 1997
Possible fits in 2004: Josh Smith, JR Smith

7. The Knucklehead - The “Knucklehead” is the most frustrating of all the busts. They have the talent that makes scouts drool - the vertical, the jumper, the handles - but they also have more baggage than Bobby Brown. Sometimes it’s a drug problem, sometimes it’s the crowd they run with, sometimes it’s selling stolen cell phones out of the truck of their car, and sometimes it’s nothing more than pure laziness. Whatever the reason, it’s enough to send a sane general manager to the top floor of the crazy ward.
Recent Examples: Eddie Griffin 7th pick in 2001, Joe Forte 21st pick in 2001, William Avery 14th pick in 1999, Tim Thomas 7th pick in 1997, and last but not least, Mr. Cell phone Isiah Rider 5th pick in 1993
Possible fits in 2004: Ivan Chiriaev, David Harrison

8. The Clones - Every time a revolutionary player comes along, general managers spend years trying to find the next “so and so.” Teams wasted pick after pick in the 80’s and 90’s looking for the next Michael Jordan. Every point guard over 6’6” is going to be the next Magic Johnson, every center over 300 pounds is nicknamed “Baby Shaq,” and now any 7-foot European player who has ever made a 3-pointer is the next Dirk Nowitzki. Over the next few years, you will see teams scouring Asia looking for the next Yao Ming and you will hear the phrase “the next LeBron” more times than you care to count. Of course, along the way, teams will find great players, but too often, they will discover that you can’t duplicate revolutionary players.
Recent Examples: Countless European players from the last few drafts, Harold Miner (the next Jordan) 12th pick in 1992, George McCloud (the next Magic) 7th pick in 1989, Randy White (the next Karl Malone) 8th pick in 1989
Possible fits in 2004: Ha-Seung Jin, Tiago Splitter

6. The Athlete - He’s got a body that would make the Rock jealous, he can dunk over a refrigerator, and he outran a zebra on Man vs. Beast 6. Now, if we could only teach him to shoot and dribble… The “Athlete” is always drafted on his potential and not on actual basketball talent. Usually, his scouting report reads, “Great defender, quick feet, unbelievable first step, amazing leaping ability, needs to work on ball handling and shooting, low basketball IQ.” I don’t know about you, but I’ll take smart guys who can shoot and dribble over the “Athlete” any day.
Recent Examples: Stromile Swift 2nd pick in 2000, Jerome Moiso 11th pick in 2000, Donnell Harvey 22nd in 2000, Corey Benjamin 28th pick in 1999, Tariq Abdul Wahad 11th pick in 1997
Possible fits in 2004: Josh Smith, JR Smith

Possible fit Josh Smith. LOL

Posted by Knick2001:

6. The Athlete - He’s got a body that would make the Rock jealous, he can dunk over a refrigerator, and he outran a zebra on Man vs. Beast 6. Now, if we could only teach him to shoot and dribble… The “Athlete” is always drafted on his potential and not on actual basketball talent. Usually, his scouting report reads, “Great defender, quick feet, unbelievable first step, amazing leaping ability, needs to work on ball handling and shooting, low basketball IQ.” I don’t know about you, but I’ll take smart guys who can shoot and dribble over the “Athlete” any day.
Recent Examples: Stromile Swift 2nd pick in 2000, Jerome Moiso 11th pick in 2000, Donnell Harvey 22nd in 2000, Corey Benjamin 28th pick in 1999, Tariq Abdul Wahad 11th pick in 1997
Possible fits in 2004: Josh Smith, JR Smith

Possible fit Josh Smith. LOL

Josh Smith was awesome last year, what an unbelievable talent who also exudes a nice toughness about him. If you look at some of the games he had at 18 years old its off the charts. 10 frikin blocks in one nBA game from the 3? He was AWESOME in that late season game against the Knicks, playing above everyones head, showing more heart and toughness than any knick

Posted by tkf:

I could see how Josh smith fits the profile of "The Athlete" right now all he does is jump well, but I don't agree with JR smith, he is a great athlete but he is also a pretty good shooter and can create off the dribble, he looks better than any 19 year old in the league not named Dwight Howard....

agreed. I don't think its a guarantee that Josh becomes anything more than a high jumping shotblocker, I'm not convinced! Now JR Smith is going to be a stud I think!

[Edited by - gunsnewing on 06/13/2005 21:07:07]

Posted by gunsnewing:

Posted by tkf:

I could see how Josh smith fits the profile of "The Athlete" right now all he does is jump well, but I don't agree with JR smith, he is a great athlete but he is also a pretty good shooter and can create off the dribble, he looks better than any 19 year old in the league not named Dwight Howard....

agreed. I don't think its a guarantee that Josh becomes anything more than a high jumping shotblocker, I'm not convinced! Now JR Smith is going to be a stud I think!

[Edited by - gunsnewing on 06/13/2005 21:07:07]

i dont agree at all. In fact, i think Josh is the better player now and into the future. I would give up pick 8 for Josh in ALMOST every scenario without as so much of a thought/

Posted by BRIGGS:

Posted by gunsnewing:

Posted by tkf:

I could see how Josh smith fits the profile of "The Athlete" right now all he does is jump well, but I don't agree with JR smith, he is a great athlete but he is also a pretty good shooter and can create off the dribble, he looks better than any 19 year old in the league not named Dwight Howard....

agreed. I don't think its a guarantee that Josh becomes anything more than a high jumping shotblocker, I'm not convinced! Now JR Smith is going to be a stud I think!

[Edited by - gunsnewing on 06/13/2005 21:07:07]

i dont agree at all. In fact, i think Josh is the better player now and into the future. I would give up pick 8 for Josh in ALMOST every scenario without as so much of a thought/

Briggs, really how many times have you seen this kid play. I can tell you I have seen him live this year more than you have probably seen him play, including highlights on ESPN.... I watch this kid, his skill set is way behind guys like JR smith, he absolutely can't handle the ball at all, he has no offensive mentality at all, he survives on his athleticism, JR smith is a player, his offensive game is so advanced for a 19 year old kid, I mean offensively he is close to what lebron was except he isn't the passer james is, but offensively this kid has the goods.. I just don't see the same in Josh and to say you would give up the 8th pick for him without thinking..... what is that about?

I don't see Josh as a bust either, not at all, but neither do I regard him as highly as some others in here do....

Posted by tkf:

Posted by BRIGGS:

Posted by gunsnewing:

Posted by tkf:

I could see how Josh smith fits the profile of "The Athlete" right now all he does is jump well, but I don't agree with JR smith, he is a great athlete but he is also a pretty good shooter and can create off the dribble, he looks better than any 19 year old in the league not named Dwight Howard....

agreed. I don't think its a guarantee that Josh becomes anything more than a high jumping shotblocker, I'm not convinced! Now JR Smith is going to be a stud I think!

[Edited by - gunsnewing on 06/13/2005 21:07:07]

i dont agree at all. In fact, i think Josh is the better player now and into the future. I would give up pick 8 for Josh in ALMOST every scenario without as so much of a thought/

Briggs, really how many times have you seen this kid play. I can tell you I have seen him live this year more than you have probably seen him play, including highlights on ESPN.... I watch this kid, his skill set is way behind guys like JR smith, he absolutely can't handle the ball at all, he has no offensive mentality at all, he survives on his athleticism, JR smith is a player, his offensive game is so advanced for a 19 year old kid, I mean offensively he is close to what lebron was except he isn't the passer james is, but offensively this kid has the goods.. I just don't see the same in Josh and to say you would give up the 8th pick for him without thinking..... what is that about?

exactly every time I saw him play which was quite often since I was one of the first to pick him up in Fantasu bball for his Blocks. Every time I watched him he looked awful offensively no handle, horrendous shot, makes Ariza look like Ray Allen. He had no positive impact on the game offensively whatsoever. I think because he won the dunk contest people are hoping for more out of him but goodluck. Josh is great defensively as he attempts to block every shot but he was nonexistent and extremely raw offensively. He's so far off offensively I would wonder if he'd ever develope. Now JR smith looked like the prototypical 6-6 superstar SG

[Edited by - gunsnewing on 06/14/2005 08:53:15]

Posted by BRIGGS:

Posted by technomaster:

Josh Smith has produced impressive stats, better than some of his "similar" predecessors (namely Darius Miles). At his raw stage, he was a top sleeper contributor in the fantasy realm. If he improves ANY skill, we're already talking an NBA starter quality talent for the next decade, if not future all-star (or more).

There are common profiles of busts... but there are certainly exceptions. For every 5 Ed O'Bannons and Bo Kimbles, you can still get good output from guys like Shane Battier. He fits in sooo many of these bust categories its silly--- CPOTY, the workout warrior (outlasted Jason Richardson in consecutive dunks-- then again he's taller to begin with), the Tweener, the next Pippen...

I suppose he's no superstar, but he's no draft bust either.

a lot of times people forget basketball has two sides of the court. IMHO, Josh Smith is already an impact type defensive player, he's aggresive, he rebounds. It's one thing to have superior athletiscm like a Kenny walker or Harold Minor and its another thing to utilize it to execute. This guy averaged more block shots than either Ok4 or Howard from the *3* spot and coming down the stretch started truning double double consistently. Listen, this guy plays above peoples heads and he has a toughness about him and he is a TREMENDOUS talent, a two way talent. JR Smith showed a higher offensive skill set, but Josh Smith's overall game is almost staggering for his age at this level.

Briggs, Blocks is such a overrated stat, ask how many times he gets beaten by his own man? a lot.. I remember one game vs the pistons, Prince posted him up 3 straight times and just backed him down and shot a hook right over him, no problem. now had Josh blocked one or two of those hooks or even bothered them, then I would be impressed.. Marcus camby would get a lot of blocks, but get killed in his man on man defense.... Be wary of some stats, especially blocks..

i don't understand how anyone can hate on Josh smith. the guy is impressive. No he's not Julius Erving but at the same time he's an incredible talent who figures to only get better.

neither Ariza, JR smith, Josh smith nor Luke Ridnhour are going to lead theteam to a championship but they are nice additions to any team and they earn their paychecks

all this talk about who can beat who...sound like punks

Just for the record, does anyone even know who the coach of the Hawks is w/o looking it up? The Hawks team is in shambles right now--- can you even name their starting PG-- is it Lue? (note that Josh Smith played some PG for them this year!)

It was essentially garbage time, but here are Smith's stats in his last 5 games:

38mpg, 16.8ppg, 10.8rpg, 2.8apg, 2.4bpg... (40% FG, 79% FT, 3.4to)

For the season:
27.7mpg, 9.7ppg, 6.2rpg, 1.7apg, 2.0bpg... (45.5% FG, 68.8 FT, 1.8to)