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Andrew
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By Chad Ford
On Tuesday, Insider unveiled its first mock draft of the year. Within hours, the feedback started rolling in from NBA scouts and GMs.
Of course, some don't want to show their hands. But others, and I'm sure they have their reasons, were willing to compare their draft boards with ours.
While almost everything we wrote seems to be lining up with what the NBA is thinking, a few things stood out.
Gerald Green is on the rise
Because our mock is interactive, it's impossible to position a person exactly. However, we had Gerald Green ranked anywhere from fourth (if Hornets or Bobcats slipped there) to seventh (th
e Raptors want him badly).
That seemed a little high, but the reasoning was this: After the top three (Marvin Williams, Andrew Bogut, Chris Paul) are off the board, teams are going to be looking for the guy from the next group that has superstar potential. The only guy on the board that seems to qualify is Green. The problem is, he also happens to be the rawest prospect of the group.
This dilemma reminds me of 2002. Nearly every scout I talked to agreed that after Yao Ming and Jay Williams, Amare Stoudemire had the most upside of anyone in the draft. However, scouts thought (incorrectly) that he was years away and power forwards like Drew Gooden and Nene Hilario ended up going ahead of him. Even Jerry West got suckered on that one.
Like Stoudemire, Green is older (he turned 19 in January) and might be the best athlete in the draft. He doesn't have the body of Amare, but he doesn't need it for his position.
The feedback we received was interesting. Most scouts and GMs agreed that his range now was between picks Nos. 4 and 7. While they agreed with our rationale, they added their own. One of the reasons his stock was lower was that there were some concerns about his character. Green struggled academically in school and rumors of a poor work ethic had been whispered all season.
High school players must be highly motivated (see LeBron James, Amare and Kevin Garnett versus Eddy Curry, Kwame Brown, Jonathan Bender) to succeed.
However, the information NBA teams are now receiving, after more thorough background checks, is that Green is a good kid, from a stable family (his dad is a retired firefighter, his mother a school teacher) and that there's nothing wrong with his work ethic or IQ.
He's in Houston right now training with his old AAU coach. He's been working on his strength and conditioning. A month ago, he could bench press 185 pounds just two times. Now, he's already up to 12 reps.
They're also impressed that Green has been careful in researching his draft prospects. He still hasn't hired an agent, though that should happen in the next few weeks. His unpaid advisor, Andrew Vye, has been collecting information for him and making sure he stays in compliance with all NCAA rules.
Most kids trying to live the NBA life ignore all of that.
Combine those factors and it appears that Green has shot up the draft prospects' list without holding one NBA workout.
Where he finally ends up will be the subject of great debate during the next six weeks. However, one team, the Lakers, has shown an unusual amount of interest in him. There's very little chance that Green lasts all the way to the 10th pick, which means the Lakers will have to move up to get him.
Hakim Warrick is ranked too low
We have Hakim Warrick currently ranked as the 18th-best prospect in the draft. However, a number of NBA scouts and GMs said on Wednesday and Thursday that they believed Warrick could go as high as No. 5 and would be in the late lottery at worst.
That's somewhat at odds with what scouts have been telling us throughout the year. For the past two years, most scouts have seen Warrick as a long, skinny, athletic tweener with decent offensive skills. That Warrick, despite his length and jumping ability, isn't a shot blocker has hurt his stock.
However, scouts are starting to change their tune a bit as they evaluate who's in the draft. We're hearing that the Jazz, (fourth), Bucks, (sixth), Warriors (10th) and Timberwolves (14th) have shown interest.
Whether that interest actually leads to an early draft pick depends on his performance during workouts. He's been in the gym with Tim Grover for a month now trying to add some muscle to his wiry frame and is working on his perimeter game. If he can show up for workouts with an extra 15 pounds of muscle or with a pretty jumper, the consensus will begin to swing.
The international backlash has begun
According to the feedback, it seems the only international player who is a lock for the lottery is Fran Vasquez.
The Trail Blazers are interested in Martynas Andriuskevicius, but most other teams don't appear to be that high on him. If that's true, then he's probably going to pull out of the draft and try again next year.
Nemanja Aleksandrov has more fans. However, he underwent knee surgery Thursday. While his agent, David Bauman, and his surgeon, Wizards team physician Stephen Haas, both claim that the surgery shouldn't affect his draft position (he's expected to make a full recovery), these things usually do. With teams already concerned that Aleksandrov didn't improve enough this year, it's the type of thing that could push him out of the lottery. We have him at No. 13 going to the Bobcats.
Tiago Splitter and Johan Petro are the other two international players with a shot at the lottery. Each has fans in the late lottery, but neither is guaranteed a shot there. Both have great size and some valuable experience playing on the senior teams in Europe. However, both are still a year or two away from making an impact in the NBA. It's conceivable that both could fall out of the lottery.
On a positive note, it looks like another highly ranked international teenager has decided to declare for the draft. Yaroslav Korolev, an 18-year-old Russian small forward whom we wrote about in Moscow last week, has declared for the draft, Insider has learned.
Korolev had a fantastic junior tournament in Moscow, averaging 17.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg and 3.2 apg. Korolev is one of the most complete players in Europe. He's a long 6-foot-9 small forward with great athleticism, an excellent long-range jumper and superb ballhandling skills. His father is a former Russian basketball player and coach, and it's clear dad has rubbed off on him. While scouts are a little concerned about his toughness and decision-making skills (he takes a lot of unnecessary chances), he's clearly a blue-chip NBA prospect.
While scouts currently project him in the 18-to-30 range in the draft, Korolev has generated a lot of interest and could move his way up to the late lottery depending on his buyout situation with CSKA.
Don't count out the high school kids
We've been bashing this high school class all year, but several of them sure seem to have great momentum at the moment.
In addition to Green, it looks like Seattle's Martell Webster and South Kent's (Conn.) Andray Blatche could both be in the late lottery on draft night.
We've been high on Webster all year and have him currently ranked as the 15th best prospect in the draft. A few scouts told Insider that they believe he could go as high 11th to the Magic or 12th to the Clippers.
Blatche has been more of an enigma. However, after his standout performance at the Jordan Classic, the "poor man's Kevin Garnett" comparisons are getting louder and more attractive. The draft lacks many athletic big men and Blatche clearly fits that bill. Of teams that are in the lottery, the Knicks and Warriors appear to be showing the most interest.
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5/13/2005 3:51 PM