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draft simulator--100 attempts
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crzymdups
Posts: 52018
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Joined: 5/1/2004
Member: #671
USA
5/5/2005  12:16 PM
so basically, somewhere between a 10 or 12% chance at moving into the top three. not gonna happen.
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tkf
Posts: 36487
Alba Posts: 6
Joined: 8/13/2001
Member: #87
5/5/2005  12:23 PM
Posted by crzymdups:

so basically, somewhere between a 10 or 12% chance at moving into the top three. not gonna happen.

thats what I said, we will need a miracle, to get into the top 3..
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
pizza
Posts: 20103
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Joined: 5/3/2005
Member: #895
Vatican City
5/5/2005  12:28 PM
Posted by tkf:


thats what I said, we will need a miracle, to get into the top 3..


Now that I understand! I was getting lost in the numbers.

We're a statistical improbability to win. But never discount miracles baby!!
kip3f
Posts: 20227
Alba Posts: 3
Joined: 10/11/2004
Member: #762
5/5/2005  12:52 PM
OK, I did some more calculations:

Prob(win 1st pick) = 
           25           20         15.7           12          8.9          6.4          4.4          2.9
Prob(win 2nd pick) = 
       21.553       18.909       15.845       12.709       9.7701       7.2133       5.0575       3.3802
Prob(win 3rd pick) = 
       17.845       17.221       15.703        13.43       10.819       8.2596       5.9331       4.0327
Prob(win 1st or 2nd pick) = 
       46.553       38.909       31.545       24.709        18.67       13.613       9.4575       6.2802
Prob(win 1st or 2nd or 3rd pick) = 
       64.398        56.13       47.247       38.139       29.489       21.873       15.391       10.313
Prob(lose lottery & keep expected pick) = 
            0            0            0       9.9967       26.594       44.806       61.255       74.251
Prob(lose lottery & get worse by 1 pick) = 
            0            0       22.656       35.073       35.677       29.666       21.854       14.856
Prob(lose lottery & get worse by 2 picks) = 
            0       31.745       26.209       15.629       7.9177       3.5732       1.4811      0.57582
Prob(lose lottery & get worse by 3 picks) = 
       35.602       12.124       3.8871        1.162      0.32174     0.082055     0.019417    0.0042582
Check: add all probabilities
          100          100          100          100          100          100          100          100



SO to summarize:
10.3% chance of getting a top 3 pick
74.3% chance of getting pick # 8
14.9% chance of getting pick # 9
< 1% chance of getting pick # 10 or 11.

10% isn't that bad HOWEVER if we had moved up just 1 slot, then we would have a 15% chance of a top 3 pick. Its a good thing that we won that last game, hunh. We could of improved our chances of a top 3 pick by 50%!!!
BRIGGS
Posts: 53275
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Member: #303
5/5/2005  2:35 PM
Posted by kip3f:

OK, I did some more calculations:

Prob(win 1st pick) = 
           25           20         15.7           12          8.9          6.4          4.4          2.9
Prob(win 2nd pick) = 
       21.553       18.909       15.845       12.709       9.7701       7.2133       5.0575       3.3802
Prob(win 3rd pick) = 
       17.845       17.221       15.703        13.43       10.819       8.2596       5.9331       4.0327
Prob(win 1st or 2nd pick) = 
       46.553       38.909       31.545       24.709        18.67       13.613       9.4575       6.2802
Prob(win 1st or 2nd or 3rd pick) = 
       64.398        56.13       47.247       38.139       29.489       21.873       15.391       10.313
Prob(lose lottery & keep expected pick) = 
            0            0            0       9.9967       26.594       44.806       61.255       74.251
Prob(lose lottery & get worse by 1 pick) = 
            0            0       22.656       35.073       35.677       29.666       21.854       14.856
Prob(lose lottery & get worse by 2 picks) = 
            0       31.745       26.209       15.629       7.9177       3.5732       1.4811      0.57582
Prob(lose lottery & get worse by 3 picks) = 
       35.602       12.124       3.8871        1.162      0.32174     0.082055     0.019417    0.0042582
Check: add all probabilities
          100          100          100          100          100          100          100          100



SO to summarize:
10.3% chance of getting a top 3 pick
74.3% chance of getting pick # 8
14.9% chance of getting pick # 9
< 1% chance of getting pick # 10 or 11.

10% isn't that bad HOWEVER if we had moved up just 1 slot, then we would have a 15% chance of a top 3 pick. Its a good thing that we won that last game, hunh. We could of improved our chances of a top 3 pick by 50%!!!

those numbers are off


Knicks 35 combinations out of 1000=

pick 1 .035 obviously 35/1000
pick 2 .04
pick 3 .048
-----total=12.3% Raptors=12.7%
if Knicks had pick 7 without a tie
pick 1 .043
pick 2 .0494
pick 3 .0579
------ 15.03%

so the last 1:52 of the wash game cost us an extra 2.7% chance at a top 3 pick and cost us a spot.
RIP Crushalot&#128542;
fishmike
Posts: 53199
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 7/19/2002
Member: #298
USA
5/5/2005  3:11 PM
but the win really left fans feeling good about the offseason
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
kip3f
Posts: 20227
Alba Posts: 3
Joined: 10/11/2004
Member: #762
5/5/2005  3:11 PM
Sorry, I was using the wrong base numbers. Using the data from
http://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=54654&mesg_id=54654&page=

Here's the correct chart:

Prob(win 1st pick) = 
           25         17.8         17.7         11.9          8.8          6.3          3.6          3.5
Prob(win 2nd pick) = 
       21.465       17.362       17.291       12.577       9.6399       7.0856       4.1565       4.0448
Prob(win 3rd pick) = 
       17.735        16.46       16.424       13.253       10.643       8.0877       4.8992       4.7729
Prob(win 1st or 2nd pick) = 
       46.465       35.162       34.991       24.477        18.44       13.386       7.7565       7.5448
Prob(win 1st or 2nd or 3rd pick) = 
         64.2       51.622       51.415       37.729       29.083       21.473       12.656       12.318
Prob(lose lottery & keep expected pick) = 
            0            0            0       9.9837       26.266        44.04       59.995       70.379
Prob(lose lottery & get worse by 1 pick) = 
            0            0       19.548       35.024       35.914       30.384       25.254       16.492
Prob(lose lottery & get worse by 2 picks) = 
            0       34.669           25       16.009       8.3663       3.9965        2.061      0.80407
Prob(lose lottery & get worse by 3 picks) = 
         35.8        13.71       4.0373       1.2543      0.37115      0.10554     0.034265    0.0081535
Check: add all probabilities
          100          100          100          100          100          100          100          100
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draft simulator--100 attempts
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