[ IMAGES: Images ON turn off | ACCOUNT: User Status is LOCKED why? ]

draft simulator--100 attempts
Forum Index  ›  NY Knicks Forum
Page 1 of 2  1  2 Next ›
« Reply To Topic
Author Thread
BRIGGS
Posts: 53275
Alba Posts: 7
Joined: 7/30/2002
Member: #303
5/4/2005  2:58 PM
goes at 20 a clip

results for knicks

1.20100==3/100
2.03222==9/100
3.22001==5/100
---------------
top 3 total 17/100=17% not a bad % fell back to 9th 3 times, no 10.

I will say this one more time, the nY Knicks were s f stupid for keeping their regs in the last game because we LOST approximately 5.5% of our overall chance and a spot in the draft.

What this also shows, while we are a long shot, coming in around 20% is not bad. we have much more than a shot in the dark, we still have a legit chance at a top 3 pick.



try it yourself-

http://www.geocities.com/benschuarmer/draftlotto.html

RIP Crushalot😞
AUTOADVERT
TMS
Posts: 60684
Alba Posts: 617
Joined: 5/11/2004
Member: #674
USA
5/4/2005  3:20 PM
thanks...it's nice to have some ray of hope going into this draft...even if it's a 17% chance, i'll take it.
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
tkf
Posts: 36487
Alba Posts: 6
Joined: 8/13/2001
Member: #87
5/4/2005  3:44 PM
I really hope we can get a top 3 pick, but from running the sim, it seems clear that we are going to get pick #8....
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
tkf
Posts: 36487
Alba Posts: 6
Joined: 8/13/2001
Member: #87
5/4/2005  3:46 PM
I swear we should of shut this thing down long ago, looking at portland they have 88 chances at a top pick, we have 35,and we played our starters for what????????????????
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
Alba Posts: 2
Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
5/4/2005  3:53 PM
I thought the top 4 picks were up for grabs. Is it only the top 3?
BRIGGS
Posts: 53275
Alba Posts: 7
Joined: 7/30/2002
Member: #303
5/4/2005  4:04 PM
Posted by TMS:

thanks...it's nice to have some ray of hope going into this draft...even if it's a 17% chance, i'll take it.

the actual odds of getting pick 1 or 2 is about 12.5%,so we really do have a chance to get Bogut. i mean its not like atlanta who has something like 64% chance at 1 or 2, but 12.5% arent horrible odds
RIP Crushalot😞
tkf
Posts: 36487
Alba Posts: 6
Joined: 8/13/2001
Member: #87
5/4/2005  4:06 PM
Posted by BRIGGS:
Posted by TMS:

thanks...it's nice to have some ray of hope going into this draft...even if it's a 17% chance, i'll take it.

the actual odds of getting pick 1 or 2 is about 12.5%,so we really do have a chance to get Bogut. i mean its not like atlanta who has something like 64% chance at 1 or 2, but 12.5% arent horrible odds

yea, but the sad thing is that a team like Atlanta is guaranteed a top 4pick, in other words they are guaranteed to get either, bogut, paul, williams or Green, Guaranteed!!!!! man!!!
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
crzymdups
Posts: 52018
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 5/1/2004
Member: #671
USA
5/4/2005  4:43 PM
I ran it for 100 sims and got:

1st: 3
2nd: 8
3rd: 6

8th: 66
9th: 16
10th: 1

this is going to be a long wait til the draft....
¿ △ ?
Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
Alba Posts: 2
Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
5/4/2005  5:05 PM
Posted by crzymdups:

I ran it for 100 sims and got:

1st: 3
2nd: 8
3rd: 6

8th: 66
9th: 16
10th: 1

this is going to be a long wait til the draft....
When is the lottery? When do we find out where we will be picking?
crzymdups
Posts: 52018
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 5/1/2004
Member: #671
USA
5/4/2005  5:24 PM
there is a countdown on the page Briggs linked. but it's 19 days to the lotto order selection aka Ping Pong Day and 54 days to the draft. That doesn't seem so bad, actually.
¿ △ ?
BRIGGS
Posts: 53275
Alba Posts: 7
Joined: 7/30/2002
Member: #303
5/4/2005  6:42 PM
Posted by crzymdups:

there is a countdown on the page Briggs linked. but it's 19 days to the lotto order selection aka Ping Pong Day and 54 days to the draft. That doesn't seem so bad, actually.

may 24
yeah the one thing i left out is that the possibility of coming in 9th statistically is much higher than us posibly going 1-2-3

we have 35 combinations that would put us 1-2-3, but the 6 teams behind us have 64 combined. thos teams comined have the same chance as the milwaukee bucks, statisically

i cant say it enough, we really hurt oursleves atad winning that lsat 2 minutes. yes its luck, but the bottom line is the higher the %, the more lucky possibilities you will have
RIP Crushalot😞
Rich
Posts: 27410
Alba Posts: 6
Joined: 12/30/2003
Member: #511
USA
5/4/2005  6:54 PM
It's time that Stern fixed another lottery.
Redsoxrule
Posts: 20141
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 5/4/2005
Member: #897
5/4/2005  8:56 PM
Briggs,
Sorry to rain on your picnic, but the actual odds of getting a top three pick are 17 out of 300 and not 17 out of 100. Do the math. If you add the numbers in one column, you must also add the numbers in the other.
We will NEVER win with Marbury as our cameo guy.
nykshaknbake
Posts: 22247
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 11/15/2003
Member: #492
5/4/2005  9:05 PM
Posted by Redsoxrule:

Briggs,
Sorry to rain on your picnic, but the actual odds of getting a top three pick are 17 out of 300 and not 17 out of 100. Do the math. If you add the numbers in one column, you must also add the numbers in the other.

I think he's got it right...17/100
Redsoxrule
Posts: 20141
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 5/4/2005
Member: #897
5/4/2005  9:12 PM
Nope. First, it's 3 out of 100. Then it's 5 out of 100. Finally, it's 9 out of 100. Total of 17 out of 300= 5.67%.
We will NEVER win with Marbury as our cameo guy.
Bonn1997
Posts: 58654
Alba Posts: 2
Joined: 2/2/2004
Member: #581
USA
5/4/2005  10:33 PM
Posted by Redsoxrule:

Nope. First, it's 3 out of 100. Then it's 5 out of 100. Finally, it's 9 out of 100. Total of 17 out of 300= 5.67%.
You add the probabilities if you're trying to figure out the odds of gettting pick #1 OR pick #2 OR pick #3, which means you add the numerator but not the denominator. It comes out to 17/100 in Briggs' example.
Nalod
Posts: 68922
Alba Posts: 154
Joined: 12/24/2003
Member: #508
USA
5/4/2005  10:59 PM
Posted by BRIGGS:

goes at 20 a clip

results for knicks

1.20100==3/100
2.03222==9/100
3.22001==5/100
---------------
top 3 total 17/100=17% not a bad % fell back to 9th 3 times, no 10.

I will say this one more time, the nY Knicks were s f stupid for keeping their regs in the last game because we LOST approximately 5.5% of our overall chance and a spot in the draft.

What this also shows, while we are a long shot, coming in around 20% is not bad. we have much more than a shot in the dark, we still have a legit chance at a top 3 pick.



try it yourself-

http://www.geocities.com/benschuarmer/draftlotto.html

Briggs, you need more to do with yourself.
BRIGGS
Posts: 53275
Alba Posts: 7
Joined: 7/30/2002
Member: #303
5/5/2005  12:17 AM
Posted by Redsoxrule:

Nope. First, it's 3 out of 100. Then it's 5 out of 100. Finally, it's 9 out of 100. Total of 17 out of 300= 5.67%.

the actual true odds for the Knicks are

top 3 pick 12.3%

pick 8 70%

pick 9 16.5%

pick 10 neglible odds

the 17% was based on actually running ths simulator 100 times. In theory, since you have 36 chances, you could be picked 3 times for spots 1-2-3, so the math can't be precise.
RIP Crushalot😞
OasisBU
Posts: 24138
Alba Posts: 4
Joined: 6/18/2002
Member: #257
USA
5/5/2005  9:49 AM
Either way - if we dont have a top 3 pick I will consider ping pong day a disappointment.

What were our odds of getting Yao Ming? Lebron? Those were definitely years that the season should have been tanked but wasnt. Now look at the Knicks, still looking to pick in the #7-9 range. If that isnt the definition of mediocrity I dont know what is.

While I understand not all #1 picks are great...when you have a 7 foot player who actually has skills, you need to go for him. When you have the next TMac, Kobe, KG etc you go for him. You dont throw fat spoon on the court with his hotdog neck or Mo Taylor and hope for a W that will keep you from getting a high pick.
"If at first you don't succeed, then maybe you just SUCK." Kenny Powers
kip3f
Posts: 20227
Alba Posts: 3
Joined: 10/11/2004
Member: #762
5/5/2005  11:44 AM
Here are the probabilities for the top 8 slots, I calculated them myself:

Prob(win 1st pick) = 
           25           20         15.7           12          8.9          6.4          4.4          2.9
Prob(win 2nd pick) = 
       21.553       18.909       15.845       12.709       9.7701       7.2133       5.0575       3.3802
Prob(win 3rd pick) = 
       17.845       17.221       15.703        13.43       10.819       8.2596       5.9331       4.0327
Prob(win 1st or 2nd pick) = 
       46.553       38.909       31.545       24.709        18.67       13.613       9.4575       6.2802
Prob(win 1st or 2nd or 3rd pick) = 
       64.398        56.13       47.247       38.139       29.489       21.873       15.391       10.313
Page 1 of 2  1  2 Next ›
« Reply To Topic
draft simulator--100 attempts
Forum Index  ›  NY Knicks Forum

©2001-2012 ultimateknicks.comm All rights reserved. About Us.
This site is not affiliated with the NY Knicks or the National Basketball Association in any way.
You may visit the official NY Knicks web site by clicking here.

All times (GMT-05:00) Eastern Time.

Terms of Use and Privacy Policy