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draft simulator--100 attempts
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BRIGGS
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5/4/2005  2:58 PM
goes at 20 a clip

results for knicks

1.20100==3/100
2.03222==9/100
3.22001==5/100
---------------
top 3 total 17/100=17% not a bad % fell back to 9th 3 times, no 10.

I will say this one more time, the nY Knicks were s f stupid for keeping their regs in the last game because we LOST approximately 5.5% of our overall chance and a spot in the draft.

What this also shows, while we are a long shot, coming in around 20% is not bad. we have much more than a shot in the dark, we still have a legit chance at a top 3 pick.



try it yourself-

http://www.geocities.com/benschuarmer/draftlotto.html

RIP Crushalot😞
AUTOADVERT
TMS
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5/4/2005  3:20 PM
thanks...it's nice to have some ray of hope going into this draft...even if it's a 17% chance, i'll take it.
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
tkf
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5/4/2005  3:44 PM
I really hope we can get a top 3 pick, but from running the sim, it seems clear that we are going to get pick #8....
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
tkf
Posts: 36487
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5/4/2005  3:46 PM
I swear we should of shut this thing down long ago, looking at portland they have 88 chances at a top pick, we have 35,and we played our starters for what????????????????
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
Bonn1997
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5/4/2005  3:53 PM
I thought the top 4 picks were up for grabs. Is it only the top 3?
BRIGGS
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5/4/2005  4:04 PM
Posted by TMS:

thanks...it's nice to have some ray of hope going into this draft...even if it's a 17% chance, i'll take it.

the actual odds of getting pick 1 or 2 is about 12.5%,so we really do have a chance to get Bogut. i mean its not like atlanta who has something like 64% chance at 1 or 2, but 12.5% arent horrible odds
RIP Crushalot😞
tkf
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5/4/2005  4:06 PM
Posted by BRIGGS:
Posted by TMS:

thanks...it's nice to have some ray of hope going into this draft...even if it's a 17% chance, i'll take it.

the actual odds of getting pick 1 or 2 is about 12.5%,so we really do have a chance to get Bogut. i mean its not like atlanta who has something like 64% chance at 1 or 2, but 12.5% arent horrible odds

yea, but the sad thing is that a team like Atlanta is guaranteed a top 4pick, in other words they are guaranteed to get either, bogut, paul, williams or Green, Guaranteed!!!!! man!!!
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
crzymdups
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5/4/2005  4:43 PM
I ran it for 100 sims and got:

1st: 3
2nd: 8
3rd: 6

8th: 66
9th: 16
10th: 1

this is going to be a long wait til the draft....
¿ △ ?
Bonn1997
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5/4/2005  5:05 PM
Posted by crzymdups:

I ran it for 100 sims and got:

1st: 3
2nd: 8
3rd: 6

8th: 66
9th: 16
10th: 1

this is going to be a long wait til the draft....
When is the lottery? When do we find out where we will be picking?
crzymdups
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5/4/2005  5:24 PM
there is a countdown on the page Briggs linked. but it's 19 days to the lotto order selection aka Ping Pong Day and 54 days to the draft. That doesn't seem so bad, actually.
¿ △ ?
BRIGGS
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5/4/2005  6:42 PM
Posted by crzymdups:

there is a countdown on the page Briggs linked. but it's 19 days to the lotto order selection aka Ping Pong Day and 54 days to the draft. That doesn't seem so bad, actually.

may 24
yeah the one thing i left out is that the possibility of coming in 9th statistically is much higher than us posibly going 1-2-3

we have 35 combinations that would put us 1-2-3, but the 6 teams behind us have 64 combined. thos teams comined have the same chance as the milwaukee bucks, statisically

i cant say it enough, we really hurt oursleves atad winning that lsat 2 minutes. yes its luck, but the bottom line is the higher the %, the more lucky possibilities you will have
RIP Crushalot😞
Rich
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5/4/2005  6:54 PM
It's time that Stern fixed another lottery.
Redsoxrule
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5/4/2005  8:56 PM
Briggs,
Sorry to rain on your picnic, but the actual odds of getting a top three pick are 17 out of 300 and not 17 out of 100. Do the math. If you add the numbers in one column, you must also add the numbers in the other.
We will NEVER win with Marbury as our cameo guy.
nykshaknbake
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5/4/2005  9:05 PM
Posted by Redsoxrule:

Briggs,
Sorry to rain on your picnic, but the actual odds of getting a top three pick are 17 out of 300 and not 17 out of 100. Do the math. If you add the numbers in one column, you must also add the numbers in the other.

I think he's got it right...17/100
Redsoxrule
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5/4/2005  9:12 PM
Nope. First, it's 3 out of 100. Then it's 5 out of 100. Finally, it's 9 out of 100. Total of 17 out of 300= 5.67%.
We will NEVER win with Marbury as our cameo guy.
Bonn1997
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5/4/2005  10:33 PM
Posted by Redsoxrule:

Nope. First, it's 3 out of 100. Then it's 5 out of 100. Finally, it's 9 out of 100. Total of 17 out of 300= 5.67%.
You add the probabilities if you're trying to figure out the odds of gettting pick #1 OR pick #2 OR pick #3, which means you add the numerator but not the denominator. It comes out to 17/100 in Briggs' example.
Nalod
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5/4/2005  10:59 PM
Posted by BRIGGS:

goes at 20 a clip

results for knicks

1.20100==3/100
2.03222==9/100
3.22001==5/100
---------------
top 3 total 17/100=17% not a bad % fell back to 9th 3 times, no 10.

I will say this one more time, the nY Knicks were s f stupid for keeping their regs in the last game because we LOST approximately 5.5% of our overall chance and a spot in the draft.

What this also shows, while we are a long shot, coming in around 20% is not bad. we have much more than a shot in the dark, we still have a legit chance at a top 3 pick.



try it yourself-

http://www.geocities.com/benschuarmer/draftlotto.html

Briggs, you need more to do with yourself.
BRIGGS
Posts: 53275
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5/5/2005  12:17 AM
Posted by Redsoxrule:

Nope. First, it's 3 out of 100. Then it's 5 out of 100. Finally, it's 9 out of 100. Total of 17 out of 300= 5.67%.

the actual true odds for the Knicks are

top 3 pick 12.3%

pick 8 70%

pick 9 16.5%

pick 10 neglible odds

the 17% was based on actually running ths simulator 100 times. In theory, since you have 36 chances, you could be picked 3 times for spots 1-2-3, so the math can't be precise.
RIP Crushalot😞
OasisBU
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5/5/2005  9:49 AM
Either way - if we dont have a top 3 pick I will consider ping pong day a disappointment.

What were our odds of getting Yao Ming? Lebron? Those were definitely years that the season should have been tanked but wasnt. Now look at the Knicks, still looking to pick in the #7-9 range. If that isnt the definition of mediocrity I dont know what is.

While I understand not all #1 picks are great...when you have a 7 foot player who actually has skills, you need to go for him. When you have the next TMac, Kobe, KG etc you go for him. You dont throw fat spoon on the court with his hotdog neck or Mo Taylor and hope for a W that will keep you from getting a high pick.
"If at first you don't succeed, then maybe you just SUCK." Kenny Powers
kip3f
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5/5/2005  11:44 AM
Here are the probabilities for the top 8 slots, I calculated them myself:

Prob(win 1st pick) = 
           25           20         15.7           12          8.9          6.4          4.4          2.9
Prob(win 2nd pick) = 
       21.553       18.909       15.845       12.709       9.7701       7.2133       5.0575       3.3802
Prob(win 3rd pick) = 
       17.845       17.221       15.703        13.43       10.819       8.2596       5.9331       4.0327
Prob(win 1st or 2nd pick) = 
       46.553       38.909       31.545       24.709        18.67       13.613       9.4575       6.2802
Prob(win 1st or 2nd or 3rd pick) = 
       64.398        56.13       47.247       38.139       29.489       21.873       15.391       10.313
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draft simulator--100 attempts
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