24 senior no-shows might regret decisions
Chad Ford

PORTSMOUTH, Va. – I know that the NCAA insists on calling its basketball players student athletes, but let's get real. Some of the college seniors skipping the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament this week might want to take one more math class before leaving school.

Every year the biggest story in Portsmouth is about who's not here instead of who is.

Most of the top seniors, including Joey Graham, Hakim Warrick, Danny Granger, Wayne Simien, Channing Frye, Ronny Turiaf, David Lee, Julius Hodge, Salim Stoudamire, Ryan Gomes, Luther Head, Lawrence Roberts and Dijon Thompson never accepted an offer to play in camp to begin with.

Others like Daniel Ewing, Eddie Basden, Will Bynum, Barry (B.J.) Elder, Luke Schenscher, Roger Powell Jr., Ellis Myles, Larry O'Bannon, Chevon Troutman, Sharrod Ford and Rawle Marshall accepted their invitations but withdrew at the last minute.

Myles, Elder and Schenscher are claiming injuries are keeping them from participating. Many of the rest are just getting bad advice.

Here's where the math applies. There are 24 seniors who aren't playing here. There are 30 first-round slots this year.

A number of college underclassmen are going to take some slots in the first round. Among those who already have declared, Andrew Bogut, Chris Taft, Antoine Wright, Kennedy Winston, Charlie Villanueva, Rashad McCants, Ike Diogu and John Gilchrist are likely first-round picks, so you can subtract eight spots from the 30.

Hodge is a no-show at PIT for good reasons, his agent says.Several other underclassmen such as Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Raymond Felton are leaning heavily toward declaring and will take another three spots. A few more, such as Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams, Jarrett Jack, Ronnie Brewer and Sean May, will take first-round spots if they declare. But let's take away just four more spots, leaving 18 slots in the first round.

Now, go to the high school kids. Of the kids who are leaning strongly toward declaring, only two, Gerald Green and Monta Ellis, are locks for the first round. So let's take out two more, taking the number to 16. If Martell Webster and Josh McRoberts were to declare, that number would be even lower.

Then go across the pond. Martynas Andriuskevicius, Fran Vasquez, Nemanja Aleksandrov, Tiago Splitter, Marko Tomas, Andrea Bargnani and Rudy Fernandez are locks to go in the first. One or two of those guys will likely pull out because they don't like their draft status. So let's drop the number of international first-round picks to five.

That leaves 11 spots for college seniors. A few more defections from the college ranks and it could be lower.

To review: There are 11 probable first-round slots remaining, and there are 24 seniors who for various reasons are not here to improve their draft stock. Ouch.

"Every year it astounds me how many kids listen to bad advice and don't play here," one NBA scout told me.

"It just doesn't make any sense. This year especially. There are a lot of seniors who are trying to project to a new position in the pros or who are trying to distance themselves from other guys who play the same position. And they bolt. Some of the kids who skipped this year won't even get into Chicago. They're blowing it."

However, the agents for some of the players who skipped the camp don't see it that way.

Marc Cornstein, who represents Hodge, a bubble first rounder, defends Hodge's decision to miss the camp.

"It's really a timing issue for us," Cornstein told Insider. "They hold the camp so close to the end of the season that it really doesn't give us the time we need to work with Julius. We've gotten feedback on what he needs to work on, and frankly, a week or two isn't enough."

Cornstein already has Hodge going through a workout regimen with trainer Eric Lichter in an attempt to add some muscle to Hodge's thin frame. He's also hired a shooting coach to help Hodge work through some mechanics on his jump shot.

The goal is to get Hodge ready for the June Chicago pre-draft camp and individual workouts.

"For a guy like Julius who will get a chance to play in Chicago, I think it just makes sense for him to prove to scouts that he can work on his issues," Cornstein said.

"They've already seen him many times. What could he prove in Portsmouth anyway? If he plays well, the GMs will say that he did it against NBDL competition. Of course he's supposed to dominate. If he struggles, his stock takes a big hit."

Cornstein isn't alone in his assessment. A number of other agents tell similar stories. Most wish they'd just get rid of PIT, or move it to late May so that they have a better chance of assessing where their players stack up. Most NBA scouts and GMs Insider talked to on Thursday agree.

Some now call it irrelevant.

The concerns on both sides – NBA and players – have made the annual PIT a draft camp for second-round bubble picks and future NBDL stars.

In 2003, seven players who played in the PIT made it to the league. But of those seven, only four – Willie Green, Brandon Hunter, James Jones and Ronald Dupree – are currently on an NBA roster.

From the 2004 PIT class, 10 players are on NBA rosters including Jackson Vroman, Andre Barrett, Luis Flores, Erik Daniels, Tony Bobbitt, Antonio Burks, John Edwards, Justin Reed, Royal Ivey and James Thomas.

Another three – Ricky Minard, Marcus Douthit and Rashad Wright – were drafted but never played.

However, none of them is making any impact in the league.

In the past 10 years, the best six NBA players to come out of the PIT are Ben Wallace, Cuttino Mobley, Brian Cardinal, Jeff Foster, Reggie Evans and Ronald Murray. Wallace is an All-Star. Mobley has been a solid starter. The rest have been role players.

The days of Marty Blake's walking around talking about discovering the next John Stockton or Scottie Pippen here are over. Expectations have been lowered. Now scouts are looking for steals late in the second round, nothing more.


Maxiell is tearing up the PIT, but what's it really mean?"If nothing else, it's due diligence now," one scout said. "We just need to make sure that we didn't miss something from one of these players at a small school. No one gets overly excited about anything here anymore."

This year, the PIT is taking another hit. The Nike Hoop Summit was scheduled on the same weekend. Most top scouts will spend a day and a half here and then head to Memphis early Friday for the Hoop Summit.

Of the guys left in the tournament, who has a chance at impressing scouts and improving his draft stock?

On opening night, the best player on the floor was Cincinnati's Jason Maxiell. He had 22 points, eight rebounds and four blocked shots. He looked like a lottery pick against the diluted competition. He's got a great body, athleticism and toughness. He played harder than anyone on the floor and it showed. But scouts kept it real.

"Let's see how he measures," one GM said just seconds after Maxiell made a spectacular block. Maxiell was listed as a 6-foot-8 power forward at Cincinnati. Scouts believe he's closer to 6-6.

Scouts were also high on Fresno State's Mustafa Al-Sayyad, a big 6-foot-9 bruiser who also has a great motor, good athleticism and a great NBA body. Unlike Maxiell, he actually might have the size to compete in the NBA. He's a legit 6-9 and scouts claim that he has a 7-4 wingspan. He's still very raw (he's played basketball for only five years) but he's very interesting. Al-Sayyad finished with 16 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks.

The best point pure guard on the floor was UTEP's Filiberto Rivera. Rivera has a quick first step, good size for the position and easily found open teammates all night. He ended with just 10 points and 6 assists, but his game was better than the box score showed.

Last night's sleeper was the University of Indianapolis' David Logan. The NCAA Division II star, one of the few All-Americans here, averaged 28 ppg in college this year and he showed why here, dropping 20 points and dishing out seven assists in 23 minutes. There is no question Logan can score, but is he a point guard?

He stands at just 6-1 and did a nice job finding teammates, but he's going to have to improve is handle to get serious interest from scouts.

Other interesting players included Iowa State's Jared Homan (18 pts, 11 rebs), Niagara's Juan Mendez (22 pts, 12 rebs) and Vermont's Taylor Coppenrath (16 pts, 6 rebs).

Chad Ford covers the NBA draft for ESPN Insider.