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Bogut on TV tonight at 9PM vs NM and Granger on ESPN2
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OldFan
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3/13/2005  10:05 PM
Posted by gunsnewing:
Posted by OldFan:

Ok - I think probably everybody on this board watches more CBB ball then I do and probably knows more about it. But I think Bogut is being over-rated. He apparently is a smart player but I don't think he is smart enough to make up for the fact that he will not be a superior physical talent in the NBA. Duncan, Shaq, Garnett, Dirk are all smart and better athletes - he won't be in their class.

Briggs - you're a great poster and you know your hoops but I'll be amazed if he ever has one year in the range of what you claim he can do for a long-time (25-27 pts 12-13 rebounds)

Guns - Sorry - but I don't think if he comes out this year he'll average 15-10 his rookie year either.

More importantly I don't think he'll ever be a dominant defensive player. He has length but he won't be strong enough, quick enough, or have enough hops to be a great defensive player in the NBA. He's not even an intimidating shot blocker in college.

He may develop into a good NBA player but he won't be one of the top 4s or 5s (There are so few talented bigs playing center, you can be a "top" center and still not be a dominant player in the league)

I respect your opinions but in the interest of debate - I disagree - please feel free to point out my mistake should Bogut prove me wrong in the future.



[Edited by - oldfan on 03/13/2005 21:45:57]

you just said you dont follow CBB so how can you say all that about Bogut. He has tons of games where he puts up 25pts/15reb & 5blocks. He always has a lot of block shots...he goes after every single one of them! He's so aggressive offensively and defensively!

Guns - I don't follow that much and guys like you and Briggs certainly would know more about the guy. I'm going by very limited first-hand knowledge and some research. YEP - I could be TOTALLY incorrect. Which is fine - but the board is for opinions and I like a good debate.

Basically - I'm going by the fact that no one (I've read) rates the guy as a superior physcal athlete - speed, strength, jumping ability. I have never seen a guy put up the kind of numbers at the 4 or 5 being predicted for this guy without being a superior physical athlete.

Jabber, Chamberlain, Moses Malone, duncan, Ewing, Robinson, Shaq, Olajawun, - I can't think of a single truely dominant big that I've seen in my lifetime that I do not think was a better athlete for his time then Bogut (appears to me). I'd be curious - do you think he is as athletically gifted as any of these guys? Is he that much more skilled that he can make up for it? (And by the way most of these guys didn't average what Briggs is predicting for Bogut and most of them game into the league with more experience)
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gunsnewing
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3/13/2005  10:06 PM
he'sfar from a tweener! he ispretty cut. More than Yao or Pau. psychically he looks like agiant against most of his competition!
OldFan
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3/13/2005  10:11 PM
Posted by gunsnewing:

he'sfar from a tweener! he ispretty cut. More than Yao or Pau. psychically he looks like agiant against most of his competition!

Not saying he's a tweener - he has good height but not great speed or strenght. I don't consider either guy you mentioned dominant but even so - yao has 50lbs and 4 or 5 inches on him.
gunsnewing
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3/13/2005  10:13 PM
Posted by OldFan:
Posted by gunsnewing:

he'sfar from a tweener! he ispretty cut. More than Yao or Pau. psychically he looks like agiant against most of his competition!

Not saying he's a tweener - he has good height but not great speed or strenght. I don't consider either guy you mentioned dominant but even so - yao has 50lbs and 4 or 5 inches on him.

exactly because yao has 6inches on him. Bogut has a much better body then those guys. He's actually muscular....just watch him compared to opposing centers. and he will always get even stronger

[Edited by - gunsnewing on 03/13/2005 22:14:42]
tkf
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3/13/2005  10:16 PM
Posted by OldFan:

Ok - I think probably everybody on this board watches more CBB ball then I do and probably knows more about it. But I think Bogut is being over-rated. He apparently is a smart player but I don't think he is smart enough to make up for the fact that he will not be a superior physical talent in the NBA. Duncan, Shaq, Garnett, Dirk are all smart and better athletes - he won't be in their class.

Briggs - you're a great poster and you know your hoops but I'll be amazed if he ever has one year in the range of what you claim he can do for a long-time (25-27 pts 12-13 rebounds)

Guns - Sorry - but I don't think if he comes out this year he'll average 15-10 his rookie year either.

More importantly I don't think he'll ever be a dominant defensive player. He has length but he won't be strong enough, quick enough, or have enough hops to be a great defensive player in the NBA. He's not even an intimidating shot blocker in college.

He may develop into a good NBA player but he won't be one of the top 4s or 5s (There are so few talented bigs playing center, you can be a "top" center and still not be a dominant player in the league)

I respect your opinions but in the interest of debate - I disagree - please feel free to point out my mistake should Bogut prove me wrong in the future.



[Edited by - oldfan on 03/13/2005 21:45:57]

you echoed my feeling in this post also. I think bogut will be a fine player, but I think he is overrated, espeically on these boards, Duncan, garnett and dirk are much better athletes, and seemed to be a lot stronger, even at 20 years of age. For some reason, his style of play, outside of his good passing skills, seem to scream comparisons to Sam Bowie....
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
OldFan
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3/13/2005  10:16 PM
Posted by gunsnewing:
Posted by OldFan:
Posted by gunsnewing:

he'sfar from a tweener! he ispretty cut. More than Yao or Pau. psychically he looks like agiant against most of his competition!

Not saying he's a tweener - he has good height but not great speed or strenght. I don't consider either guy you mentioned dominant but even so - yao has 50lbs and 4 or 5 inches on him.

exactly because yao has 6inches on him. Bogut has a much better body then those guys. He's actually muscular....just watch him compared to opposing centers. and he will always get even stronger

[Edited by - gunsnewing on 03/13/2005 22:14:42]

Guns - if he was being compared to the current crop of centers I might be more inclined to agree - but he's being compared to franchise players. Not to belabor the point but what Franchise 4 or 5 in the last 10 years does he have as much physical talent as?
gunsnewing
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3/13/2005  10:18 PM
put it this way...he will be a top 10 center in his rookie year!
OldFan
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3/13/2005  10:23 PM
Posted by gunsnewing:

put it this way...he will be a top 10 center in his rookie year!

First let me say I'm doing all this with a smile - I enjoy this type of debate. Being a top ten center his rookie year is possible - but that's a long way from 25-27pts 13 rebounds per game (Briggs Prediction) or even your 15 pts 10 rebounds - Shaq is the only center averaging 15 and 10 (Though Okafor is at 14.9 and 10.8)
gunsnewing
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3/13/2005  11:26 PM
Posted by OldFan:
Posted by gunsnewing:

put it this way...he will be a top 10 center in his rookie year!

First let me say I'm doing all this with a smile - I enjoy this type of debate. Being a top ten center his rookie year is possible - but that's a long way from 25-27pts 13 rebounds per game (Briggs Prediction) or even your 15 pts 10 rebounds - Shaq is the only center averaging 15 and 10 (Though Okafor is at 14.9 and 10.8)

Z, Yao, Brad Miller, Camby. Bogut will be right up there with those guys
Stevo718
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3/14/2005  12:31 AM
If he improves his intensity, gets smarter and improves his footspeed and footwork I can see him influencing some games but not dominating anywhere close along the lines of a Duncan or Garnett.
bigpimpin
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3/14/2005  1:07 AM
I watched the game and Bogut is a good player but i don't see him even averaging 20 and 10

and i mean 20 and 10 ever. wait let me say this cause i don't want to sound like he just can't average 20 and 10. if he is playing with a jason kidd then yeah he can but not with these high flying shoot more than you pass knuckleheads that are coming to an NBA city near you, soon

pro basketball is not the same as college basketball. Unless he is a superior athlete (and Bogut isn't)

but he is a good true center with some skill and that's a great start
"Anyone who sits around waiting to hit the lottery, whether basketball or real life, in order to better their position is a loser."
BRIGGS
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3/14/2005  12:08 PM
Posted by bigpimpin:

I watched the game and Bogut is a good player but i don't see him even averaging 20 and 10

and i mean 20 and 10 ever. wait let me say this cause i don't want to sound like he just can't average 20 and 10. if he is playing with a jason kidd then yeah he can but not with these high flying shoot more than you pass knuckleheads that are coming to an NBA city near you, soon

pro basketball is not the same as college basketball. Unless he is a superior athlete (and Bogut isn't)

but he is a good true center with some skill and that's a great start


I'll say it once, I'll say it again, Andrew Bogut is going to be an NBA superstar. the number 1 pick is a farce because the gap between Bogut and the next player is a mile. you might as well say pick 1 then pick 5. I love athletic players, but if you are not old enough to have seen guys like Kevin Mchale, Larry Bird, then you have no objective opinion.
i watched Uconn stop Shaq using a face guard and a man behind him in CBB, it makes it very difficult even for a guy like Shaq to get a target to receive the pass and make a move. College basketball is dominated by the G. Does this player have defecincies? YES, does he need to put on a solid 10-15 YES what is his skill level for a 7-1 245 pd 20 YO? off the charts. He's going to be a 19-20 pt 11-12 rebound guy in year 1. hes going to be an impact player. in his prime he will average 25-27 points for multiple years.

This is the best center prospect since Shaq came out. he stands apart from other C's because this guy can REBOUND the ball, unlike other C that have been talked about here. this is a 7-1 player who can play, and he is a low post C, a very unique combination, yet he has tha baility to step out. he has the best footwork for a college C since Bill walton. OK so you see where I am going with this. If we somehow won the lottery and chose to pick someone else, it would be a collosal error and error that could not be rectified because this is once in a decade type player.
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TheSage
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3/14/2005  12:27 PM
I see things I like in Bogut. He can shoot, knows position on the court, good hands, positions for boards. I didn't see enough to judge the quickness or footspeed nad am uncertain about his intensity and desire so I can't say he'll be more than journey center but also can't say whether he'll join the elite among centers.

Take it for what it is worth but I also saw a rather less than attractive forward in Indiana who could step out and nail a shot from anywhere but who was slow and couldn't hit the side of a barn if the opposition had a hand in his face. The experts thought he would be better than George Mikan but boy was I right-that Bird kid never amounted to much of a BBaller
OldFan
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3/14/2005  12:55 PM
Posted by BRIGGS:
Posted by bigpimpin:

I watched the game and Bogut is a good player but i don't see him even averaging 20 and 10

and i mean 20 and 10 ever. wait let me say this cause i don't want to sound like he just can't average 20 and 10. if he is playing with a jason kidd then yeah he can but not with these high flying shoot more than you pass knuckleheads that are coming to an NBA city near you, soon

pro basketball is not the same as college basketball. Unless he is a superior athlete (and Bogut isn't)

but he is a good true center with some skill and that's a great start


I'll say it once, I'll say it again, Andrew Bogut is going to be an NBA superstar. the number 1 pick is a farce because the gap between Bogut and the next player is a mile. you might as well say pick 1 then pick 5. I love athletic players, but if you are not old enough to have seen guys like Kevin Mchale, Larry Bird, then you have no objective opinion.
i watched Uconn stop Shaq using a face guard and a man behind him in CBB, it makes it very difficult even for a guy like Shaq to get a target to receive the pass and make a move. College basketball is dominated by the G. Does this player have defecincies? YES, does he need to put on a solid 10-15 YES what is his skill level for a 7-1 245 pd 20 YO? off the charts. He's going to be a 19-20 pt 11-12 rebound guy in year 1. hes going to be an impact player. in his prime he will average 25-27 points for multiple years.

This is the best center prospect since Shaq came out. he stands apart from other C's because this guy can REBOUND the ball, unlike other C that have been talked about here. this is a 7-1 player who can play, and he is a low post C, a very unique combination, yet he has tha baility to step out. he has the best footwork for a college C since Bill walton. OK so you see where I am going with this. If we somehow won the lottery and chose to pick someone else, it would be a collosal error and error that could not be rectified because this is once in a decade type player.

Briggs - I've seen Bird, Mchale and Walton. I don't think Bogut is close to that class of player and even they didn't meet the almost unbelievable production you predicted for bogut 25-27 12-13 rebounds over a number of years. Those are number most Super-Stars have trouble reaching in their best years. Neither Bird, Mchale nor Walton ever did it. Do you realize how high you've set the bar for this guy?

Bird was one of the best shooters to ever play, had great basketball smarts, was an intense competitor, had no fear and could always rise to the occassion. Do you think Bogut's skills, court sense to Bird? Do you think he plays with as much intensity and confidence? That's a bold prediction. (and how many "Next Larry Birds" have actually lived up to the billing)

Mchale had great footwork, great competiveness, good smarts and played on a great team where he almost never was the primary focus of the defense. He also had Experience - he didn't average 19 pts until his 5th year in the league never averaged as many as 10 rebounds. Is Boguts footwork and post game equal to Mchales? Could Mchale have scored as well in the Low Post without Larry and Robert Parish? Can Bogut optain Mchales peak level in just a couple of years and maintain it longer? Was Mchale even a dominant player for more the a year or two?

The statistical bar you set is tremendously high. Even the Superstars you've compared him to didn't reach it. Even with incredible physical talent and basketball skills - it's hard to predict that level of production.
gunsnewing
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3/14/2005  1:07 PM
Briggs thinks Bogut is an Intant immortal hall of famer which is where he is wrong. He may look like it playing on a Utah team that stinks and facing lesser competion but if he can put up 15 & 10 or 18 & 9 as a Center in the NBA then you have to really admire the guy. He is definitely a top pick. Definitely not better than Duncan...that is just ridiculous. Shaq and Duncan are immortals! but he can be right up there with Z and Pau and maybe even right there with a Yao in their prime.

man not even Duncan & Shaq averages 27 & 15 consistently from year to year. Briggs you are crazy man!!!!

if anything Bogut's best season will be 21-23pts with 12rebs even that is a little high right now since we still dont know exactly how his game will transfer into the NBA.

[Edited by - gunsnewing on 03/14/2005 13:35:48]
Marv
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3/14/2005  1:07 PM
Briggs, what would you offer for the #1?
BRIGGS
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3/14/2005  1:15 PM
Posted by OldFan:
Posted by BRIGGS:
Posted by bigpimpin:

I watched the game and Bogut is a good player but i don't see him even averaging 20 and 10

and i mean 20 and 10 ever. wait let me say this cause i don't want to sound like he just can't average 20 and 10. if he is playing with a jason kidd then yeah he can but not with these high flying shoot more than you pass knuckleheads that are coming to an NBA city near you, soon

pro basketball is not the same as college basketball. Unless he is a superior athlete (and Bogut isn't)

but he is a good true center with some skill and that's a great start


I'll say it once, I'll say it again, Andrew Bogut is going to be an NBA superstar. the number 1 pick is a farce because the gap between Bogut and the next player is a mile. you might as well say pick 1 then pick 5. I love athletic players, but if you are not old enough to have seen guys like Kevin Mchale, Larry Bird, then you have no objective opinion.
i watched Uconn stop Shaq using a face guard and a man behind him in CBB, it makes it very difficult even for a guy like Shaq to get a target to receive the pass and make a move. College basketball is dominated by the G. Does this player have defecincies? YES, does he need to put on a solid 10-15 YES what is his skill level for a 7-1 245 pd 20 YO? off the charts. He's going to be a 19-20 pt 11-12 rebound guy in year 1. hes going to be an impact player. in his prime he will average 25-27 points for multiple years.

This is the best center prospect since Shaq came out. he stands apart from other C's because this guy can REBOUND the ball, unlike other C that have been talked about here. this is a 7-1 player who can play, and he is a low post C, a very unique combination, yet he has tha baility to step out. he has the best footwork for a college C since Bill walton. OK so you see where I am going with this. If we somehow won the lottery and chose to pick someone else, it would be a collosal error and error that could not be rectified because this is once in a decade type player.

Briggs - I've seen Bird, Mchale and Walton. I don't think Bogut is close to that class of player and even they didn't meet the almost unbelievable production you predicted for bogut 25-27 12-13 rebounds over a number of years. Those are number most Super-Stars have trouble reaching in their best years. Neither Bird, Mchale nor Walton ever did it. Do you realize how high you've set the bar for this guy?

Bird was one of the best shooters to ever play, had great basketball smarts, was an intense competitor, had no fear and could always rise to the occassion. Do you think Bogut's skills, court sense to Bird? Do you think he plays with as much intensity and confidence? That's a bold prediction. (and how many "Next Larry Birds" have actually lived up to the billing)

Mchale had great footwork, great competiveness, good smarts and played on a great team where he almost never was the primary focus of the defense. He also had Experience - he didn't average 19 pts until his 5th year in the league never averaged as many as 10 rebounds. Is Boguts footwork and post game equal to Mchales? Could Mchale have scored as well in the Low Post without Larry and Robert Parish? Can Bogut optain Mchales peak level in just a couple of years and maintain it longer? Was Mchale even a dominant player for more the a year or two?

The statistical bar you set is tremendously high. Even the Superstars you've compared him to didn't reach it. Even with incredible physical talent and basketball skills - it's hard to predict that level of production.


Kevin mchale was a 6th man for most of his career. He only played big minutes 3-4 seasons. His scoring numbers are skewed, because
A. minutes played
B. shots attempted

he is superior to almost any player now in terms of his ability to make shots at a high% and thats why I put bogut on that level. Not only is he 2-3 inches taller than Mchale, he will be a primary scorer and will play BIG minutes as a starter. Kevin mchale couldve averaged 30 points a game easy on many teams as a starter.

This kid is going to be a better rebounder than Mchale, a bigger guy, but has similar post up skills and the same type of long arms. and he is a better athlete.
RIP Crushalot😞
OldFan
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3/14/2005  1:28 PM
Being the best player works for and against you. Yes you may get more opportunities but it is also going to be against the heart of the defense. He'll have to be a LOT better then Mchale to have the career you're predicting.

Basically Shaq is the one and only player who is currently playing who has averages 25-27 12-13 over an extended period. Not even Garnett and Duncan do it. Do you really think he is going to be better then these guys? They're pretty good you know.

Ok, I'll continue to read on this subject - but I'm done posting. It was fun.
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3/14/2005  2:27 PM
I think Duncan and Bird could've easily averaged 30 ppg and 12-15rpg if they had ANY interest whatsoever in stats. The fact is, the only guys who put up those ridiculous numbers are either: A) total, complete dominating superstars who could probably average 40ppg if they felt the need or B) stats obsessed freaks like Karl Malone and Tmac and Kobe.

While I think Briggs' stats are a little inflated, I see them more as a projection about what Bogut COULD do at the height of his powers rather than what he WILL do.
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gunsnewing
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3/14/2005  2:30 PM
no I see it as what he cant and will not do since no one puts up those kind of numbers but I do seen him averaging 18-20pts 9-11rebs for his career.

[Edited by - gunsnewing on 03/14/2005 14:42:14]
Bogut on TV tonight at 9PM vs NM and Granger on ESPN2

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