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martin
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Draft: Shooting Guards
by chad
There is an obvious disconnect between the lore of scouting wisdom and reality. To quote more than one NBA scout, good shooting guards are a dime a dozen.
Unlike the rare centers and point guards who appear only in leap years when there's a full moon, shooting guards are everywhere. They grow on trees. Take a shot on the big kid who can't tie his shoes. Grab your two guard of the future off any NBDL roster.
It just isn't true. These days, superstar two guards appear to be just as rare. In the past three drafts, there have been two great shooting guards – Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.
Ben Gordon has made some nice waves this season, but he's a ways away from being called great.
That's partly because the college ranks aren't being bolstered by high school and international prospects at this position. Most 18-year-olds drafted in the NBA still tend to be 6-10 or taller.
This year, expect the drought to continue.
There are promising players here. But none are sure things.
Here's our first look at what appears to be a pretty decent shooting-guard class.
Note: The list includes all players who we believe might declare for the 2005 draft.
1. Gerald Green, Gulf Shores Academy (Houston, Texas)
The line: 6-7, 210, HS Senior
The skinny: Every year there's at least one high school kid who somehow finds his way into the lottery. Green, a 6-7 super athletic swingman who has drawn comparisons to a young Tracy McGrady, seems to be the most likely candidate to break the barrier this season. Green's averaging 29 points, 15 rebounds, seven blocks and five assists. He possesses great range on his jump shot, can create his own shot off the dribble and is an excellent ball handler. Scouts claim he's one of the fastest players in the draft.
Like most high school players, Green has his share of weaknesses. He needs to put more muscle on his wiry frame. Lately, he's been settling for a lot of jumpers instead of taking the ball to the hole. Several scouts who have followed him for the past few years also claim he's very immature and struggles in the classroom, which is partly why he's not strongly considering college at this point. Still, scouts insist that Green has the talent of a lottery pick. But given his body and weaknesses, he'll probably be on the Dorell Wright development plan just about wherever he goes.
2. Martell Webster, Seattle Prep
The line: 6-7, 235, HS Senior
The skinny: The Seattle native was one of the most highly ranked players in the country as a sophomore before an injury hampered his junior season. Webster had his coming out party over Christmas at the City of Palms Classic in Florida, where he wowed scouts with his smooth game, dead-on jumper and fantastic rebounding. One scout called him the best shooter in high school basketball. His constant motor and his basketball IQ also impressed scouts. The fact that he is regarded as a grounded kid also helps his chances. The only real knock on him is that he's not overly athletic – think Caron Butler with a jumper.
The Seattle prep star is committed to playing at Washington next year, but he's also flirted with going straight to the NBA. A month ago, scouts unanimously felt he should go to college. Now they are calling him the most NBA-ready prospect in high school and claim that he might be a late lottery pick.
3. Marko Tomas, Croatia
The line: 6-8, 210, 19-years-old
The skinny: Tomas is the hottest international prospect on the board. He is putting up huge numbers for KK Zagreb and is drawing raves from just about every scout who's taken the trip to Zagreb to watch him play. Scouts love his aggressiveness, athleticism and size in the backcourt. Tomas has even played some point for Zagreb this year because of injuries, and he has excelled there. Scouts believe his handle is good enough for him to be a point-forward type player in the NBA. The Croatian media already are calling him the next Drazen Petrovic. That's totally unfair. But at 19, Tomas certainly has been impressive. He's averaging 20.3 ppg on 53 percent shooting from the field in the Adriatic league.
Confusion over his contract status could impact his draft status, however. Tomas has no NBA buyout written into his contract, and it looks like his Croatian team will be difficult in negotiations. His agent, SFX's David Bauman told Insider that Tomas has declared for the draft and will stay in if he's guaranteed a pick in the lottery. Apparently, that would give him enough cash to pay his Croatian team's buyout. Two months ago, a lottery selection for Tomas looked like a stretch. But as the draft shapes up, and Tomas continues to dominate in Europe, the chances of his slipping into the late lottery improve.
4. Rashad McCants, North Carolina
The line: 6-4, 200, junior
Rashad McCants
McCants might need another season of good behavior for his stock to rise.
The skinny: McCants might be the most-talented junior in the country. He's obviously a gifted scorer and a top-notch athlete. He's a dead eye from long range and seems to have no problem getting to the basket at will. He's very quick and explosive. But some issues hurt his stock earlier in the season. Scouts believe he's much closer to 6-3 and don't believe he has the handle or the head to be an NBA point guard. His long arms and athleticism make up for some of those height issues, but not all of them. He's also a spotty defender, which certainly doesn't help his cause. Combine that with reports his attitude is questionable, and you can understand why scouts have been leery. However, things are changing. Several scouts say coach Roy Williams claims that McCants is a changed man. He's played under control this year and has taken direction from Williams well.
Where he'll end up in the draft remains a contentious point of debate. Some have him as a late lottery pick, but more likely he's a mid-first rounder. Another year of A+ behavior at North Carolina, however, and we might have to upgrade his stock again.
5. Rudy Fernandez, Joventut Badalona (Spain)
The line: 6-5, 185, 19-years-old
The skinny: Fernandez looked awesome playing for the Spanish national team in the Olympics and has continued to play well this season, though he's leveled off a bit. Fernandez has a lot of what it takes to be a good NBA guard. He has athleticism, ball handling, shooting touch (with NBA 3-point range) and active defense. His ability to play both the one and the two increases his value. He has a great vertical, good enough in fact that scouts claim he may be the best young dunker in Europe.
While he plays with grit and aggressiveness, strength and size are big issues. Fernandez must spend some time in the weight room, or stronger guards are going to post him up all day. Others question his size, claiming he's closer to 6-4, and his seeming unwillingness to play the point.
Fernandez already has declared for this year's draft. Expect his draft range to be anywhere from 15 to 25.
6. Antoine Wright, Texas A&M
The line: 6-7, 210, junior
The skinny: Wright seems to have rebounded from a horrific sophomore season. He looked like he was a lock for the lottery after an amazing freshman season for the Aggies. However, last season his numbers dropped across the board as he shot just 36 percent from the field and 29 percent from the 3-point arc.
This year, Wright seems to have regained his shooting stroke and his confidence. He handles the rock great for a 6-foot-7 foot player, sees the floor well and just has an overall good feel for the game. Scouts still wonder about his head a bit after he fell apart last season. While a few scouts claim he'll be a late lottery pick, most have him planted firmly in the mid-first round bubble.
7. Francisco Garcia, Louisville
The line: 6-7, 190, junior
The skinny: Garcia started the season off fantastically, but has hit a few potholes the past month and a half. He's obviously a gifted scorer with a feathery shooting touch. Garcia's long, versatile and has a good feel for the basketball. He's a fabulous shot blocker for a swingman and also is a dead-eye from the free-throw line. Scouts believe his natural position is the three, but his unwillingness to mix it up at all in the paint means he probably plays the two in the pros. He still needs to get stronger and work on shooting off the dribble. Look for him to land anywhere between 20 and 35 on draft night.
8. Nate Robinson, Washington
The line: 5-9, 180, junior
The skinny: Robinson is one of the most, if not the most, exciting and athletic basketball players in the country. So why isn't he ranked higher? Size matters in the NBA, and Robinson stands 5-9 in shoes (according to official measurements at the 2004 Chicago pre-draft camp). The fact that he isn't even close to being a point guard also doesn't help matters. Still, that hasn't stopped scouts from drooling over the possibility of adding Robinson to their roster. One scout called him, "the best finisher in college basketball" and "almost impossible to guard."
With a 43½-inch vertical, blazing speed and an improved outside jumper, teams are taking notice. "I'm not sure where he will go in the draft, but don't forget the 'wow' factor here," an NBA exec told Insider. "Every time he touches the ball, everyone holds their breath. He can sell tickets. Fans react to him. I think he's going to go much earlier than people think." Right now, he's a likely late first-round, early second-round pick. It only takes one team to fall in love.
9. Louis Williams, South Gwinnet (Ga.)
The line: 6-2, 175, HS Senior
The skinny: Robinson isn't the only little two guard who has gotten scouts' attention. Williams keeps claiming that NBA scouts are telling him he's a top-five pick in the draft. I haven't encountered one NBA scout who believes he's lottery material this year, let alone top five.
Williams has NBA talent. He's an amazing athlete, can jump out of the gym, gets to the rim whenever he wants, and his shooting touch extends all the way to the NBA 3-point line. He's a volume shooter, like Allen Iverson, but Williams doesn't have the same feel for the game. He is one of the most gifted scorers in high school hoops, but scouts claim he needs to do it at Georgia (the school he committed to) for a few years first.
If he declares, someone will take him. Last year, the collection of scouts Insider uses thought Sebastian Telfair was a late first-round pick or early second-round pick. But Blazers GM John Nash fell in love with him and took him in the lottery. It takes only one. Williams might take the gamble, hoping that a team like the Blazers is willing to take the risk in the lottery. But chances are he's looking at a pick in the mid-to-late 20s if he declares this year.
10. Julius Hodge, North Carolina State
The line: 6-7, 205, senior
The skinny: Don't let his wiry frame fool you. Hodge is a great, tough athlete who can be absolutely fearless taking the ball to the hole. His passing skills are above average, leading some scouts to believe he could make the transition to the point. He's shooting an impressive 57 percent from the field this season and has a knack for drawing fouls. His perimeter shot, turnovers and defense are the biggest question marks.
Scouts just aren't sure what position he plays in the pros. Hodge can play some one, but it's not his natural position. He's not really a two, because of his lack of a 3-point shot. He could be a three, but is he big enough? Scouts feel he could go anywhere between the late first round to the early second. He reminds me a little bit of Josh Howard – another talented ACC player of the year, who didn't quite fit a mold and slipped in the draft. We all know how Howard turned out. There's a chance Hodge could do the same.
Best of the rest: Salim Stoudamire, Arizona; Hassan Adams, Arizona; Mickaël Gelebale, France; B.J. Elder, Georgia Tech; Nikolaos Zissis, Greece; Romel Beck, UNLV; Keith Langford, Kansas; Alan Anderson, Michigan State;
Wait until next year: Malik Hariston, Oregon; Juwan McClellan, Arizona; Costas Vassiliadis, Greece; Thabo Sefolosha, Switzerland; J.R. Giddens, Kansas; J.J. Redick, Duke; Roy Bright, Cincinnati; Rashad Anderson, UConn; Kelenna Azubuike, Kentucky; Von Wafer, Florida State; Matt Walsh, Florida; Brandon Roy, Washington; Brandon Rush, HS senior; Marko Belinelli, Italy; Vasily Zavoruev, Russia; Marcus Vieira de Souza, Brazil
DRAFT CARDS
# Sudden impact?: All of the speculation surrounding a looming 20-year-old age limit could end up having a major impact on this year's draft.
Player agents are telling kids that they had better declare now. There's even a rumor flying around that the NBA is pushing for Americans to be ineligible until after their junior season. The result? A lot of high school kids and 18-year-old international players that aren't ready are going to flood the draft.
The Players Association is still trying to convince the rank and file that it's a bad idea and I don't blame it.
A lot of what the owners are asking for in the new CBA is reasonable, but an age limit is overkill if the league is going to get a true minor league (which both sides claim is likely to happen). Doesn't a real minor league get rid of a need for an age limit? If teams have a place to send young prospects to develop, who cares what age they come out?
Most GMs think that players might be better off skipping college and going straight to the NBDL to work with a team's own assistant coach and training staff. If the goal is to improve the quality of the game, it's tough to argue that forcing kids to stay in school, where practice is limited and the style of play is so different, is good for the league.
The issue, however, has more to do with the NCAA than the NBA. If high school players catch wind that they can get drafted, play in the minor league for a real salary – with hopes of being called up in a year or two – a large number of them are going to skip college.
# Prodigy still making plans: SFX International sent Insider a copy of its list of players who have already declared for the 2005 NBA Draft. Not a lot of surprises here. Serbia's Nemanja Aleksandrov, Slovenia's Erazem Lorbek, Croatia's Marko Tomas, Roko Ukic and Drago Pasalic, Greece's Dusan Sakota and Italy's Stephano Mancinelli are on the list.
Of the group, Aleksandrov is the most interesting. The 17-year-old prodigy was once considered a lock for the top pick in the draft, but has suffered through a miserable season so far. While scouts still claim he might be the most skilled big man in the draft, questions about his heart and lack of experience will hurt his draft stock.
A few weeks ago, Aleksandrov added injury to insult when he sprained his knee. MRI results were negative, and he's expected back in four weeks.
Despite Aleksandrov's fall from grace, his agent, David Bauman, claims that his plan for Aleksandrov remains unchanged.
Aleksandrov is in the last year of his contract with Reflex. He will come to the United States in early May to train for one month, and then he will do a select few workouts. Bauman claims that if Aleksandrov gets a firm commitment from a team in the top 10, he will stay in the draft.
Otherwise, Aleksandrov will likely try to land with a Euroleague team that will give him playing time along with a contract that has a clear NBA buyout.
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3/11/2005 3:25 PM