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Insider: Rebounding Rate
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crzymdups
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3/8/2005  12:17 PM
Interesting article about rebounding and helps to explain Seattle's success somewhat. Also, more proof we should look at Dan Gadzuric if Stephen Hunter isn't available.

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Care to guess who's having one of the best rebounding seasons in history?

Your first instinct might be to say Kevin Garnett, who's running away with the rebounding title. He's averaging 13.7 boards a game, which is nearly two more than his closest competitor. Considering his sizable lead, it seems heretical to suggest somebody else is the league's best rebounder. But it's true. Though hardly a household name, the Seattle SuperSonics' Reggie Evans is putting Garnett to shame with his rebounding exploits.



Garnett

EvansHow did I arrive at this conclusion? It all starts with a simple premise: A player can't get a rebound unless somebody misses a shot. Following from that logic, the best way to rate rebounders is by the percentage of missed shots they reel in, not by the amount they pull down per game or even per minute.

Consider the following example.

Player A gets 10 rebounds in a game with 20 missed shots, while Player B nabs 20 in a game with 100 missed shots. Player B has twice as many rebounds, but is he really better? Player A grabbed a Herculean 50 percent of all the missed shots in his game, while Player B took in only 20 percent. We shouldn't hold it against Player A that there were so few missed shots for him to rebound.

This is where my tool called Rebound Rate comes in. By measuring the percentage of available rebounds that a player gets while he's on the floor, Rebound Rate makes Player A's superiority obvious.

To calculate a player's Rebound Rate, start by adding all the rebounds and opponents' rebounds in his team's games. Multiply that result by the percentage of the team's minutes that player has played. This gives you the approximate number of rebounds available while he was on the court. Finally, take his total rebounds, divide it by the available rebounds, and multiply by 100.

And there you have it – a player's Rebound Rate.

Using this calculation, Garnett's Rebound Rate is exceptional. Since there are 10 players on the court at any time, an average Rebound Rate is 10.0, but Garnett pulls in 20.3 percent of the available rebounds when he's on the court. Basically, he's doing the work of two people. The reigning MVP's effort is doubly amazing considering how much time he spends playing on the perimeter on both offense and defense.

However, a few players have been even more exceptional than Garnett, most notably Evans.

He has yanked down nearly a quarter of the missed shots when he's been on the court, making him the runaway winner in Rebound Rate. Two spots behind him is teammate Danny Fortson, who led the league in this category last season (Garnett was third) and is in the running again this year. Seattle's dynamic duo doesn't possess glitzy per-game averages – 9.3 for Evans and 6.1 for Fortson. But once you consider that each averages fewer than 25 minutes per game, it becomes easy to see how they can rank at the top.

Rebound Rate Top 10
Min. 500 minutes (through 3/6)
Player Team Rate
Reggie Evans SuperSonics 24.5
Dan Gadzuric Bucks 21.3
Danny Fortson SuperSonics 21.2
Jeff Foster Pacers 20.8
Kevin Garnett Timberwolves 20.3
Tim Duncan Spurs 19.8
Joel Przybilla Trail Blazers 19.2
Tyson Chandler Bulls 19.1
Troy Murphy Warriors 19.0
Ben Wallace Pistons 19.0
For further evidence of the Seattle duo's impact, just look at the Sonics' overall Rebound Rate.

They grab 52.1 percent of missed shots, the fifth-best mark in the league, and that's almost entirely due to the efforts of Evans and Fortson. Nick Collison is the only other Sonic regular with a Rebound Rate above 12, while the five Sonics who play the most minutes – Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Luke Ridnour, Vladimir Radmanovic and Antonio Daniels – all are in single digits. With so few teammates pulling their own weight, it's extraordinary that Evans and Fortson can more than make up for them in their limited minutes.

Garnett, meanwhile, is fifth, right behind Indiana's Jeff Foster. Garnett's Rebound Rate is still amazing, especially since he can't focus single-mindedly on rebounding as the four players ahead of him do. But for pure rebounding excellence, the two Sonics are a cut above right now.

As a matter of fact, let's get some historical perspective on Evans's extraordinary rebounding performance. Based on the Rebound Rates for every player since 1970-71 when the NBA started tracking opponents' rebounds, Evans is moving into the exalted territory previously occupied by only one man: Dennis Rodman.

Best Rebound Rates
Since 1970-71
(min. 500 minutes)
Player Year Rate
Dennis Rodman 1994-95 29.7
Dennis Rodman 1993-94 29.6
Dennis Rodman 1995-96 26.6
Dennis Rodman 1991-92 26.2
Dennis Rodman 1992-93 26.0
Dennis Rodman 1996-97 25.7
Reggie Evans 2004-05 24.5
Dennis Rodman 1997-98 24.0
Ben Wallace 2002-03 23.2
Moses Malone 1979-80 23.2

The seven best Rebound Rates since 1970-71 all belong to the Worm during seven consecutive seasons from 1991-92 to 1997-98.

In six of them, he grabbed more than a quarter of the available rebounds, the only player in the last 35 years to do so. But with just a slight increase in the season's final 25 games, Evans could be joining Rodman. He's already broken into the bottom layer of Rodman's era of dominance, eclipsing the former Mr. Electra's 1997-98 campaign. Except for the Ruthian exploits of the Worm, Evans is having the best rebounding season in the past four decades.

Understanding Rebound Rate also makes it easier to comprehend the Sonics' staggering improvement this year. With Evans and Fortson making up for their teammates' biggest shortcomings, the Sonics have gone from being one of the league's worst rebounding teams to one of its best.

Thus, while Garnett's gaping lead in rebounding average garners the spotlight, a much more amazing feat is being accomplished in relative obscurity. Reggie Evans is this season's Mr. Windex, cleaning glass in an exclusive class.

John Hollinger is the author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2004-05." He has joined ESPN Insider as a regular contributor.
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fishmike
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3/8/2005  1:00 PM
One of the reasons the Bulls won without a "big man" and the Pistons were so good. Also a reason I think Rodman should get HOF consideration but never will. The guy wasnt the best rebounder, he was the best by A LOT.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
bernard
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3/8/2005  1:43 PM
This is interesting. Makes sense. Except it doesn't account for the difference between offensive and defensive boards. Wouldn't take too much doing to weight this so players on teams that end up taking and missing more shots than their opponents aren't punished by having an uneven ratio of offensive rebound opportunities to defensive rebound opportunities.

Anyway, Amazing to see how Rodman dominates. Also interesting to see some of the game's great rebounders who didn't make the list: Paul Silas, Wes Unseld, Wilt, etc. What about the game has changed so that second and 3rd tier talents like Evans, Fortson and Gadzuric make this list, while hall of famers from the 70's, 80's and 90's do not? My suspicion is that guards don't rebound as much as they used to, so there are more boards to divide up among front-court players, but that's just a guess.
BRIGGS
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3/8/2005  1:45 PM
the problem with gadzuric. there is no way he is not getting a dime less than an MLE, it's possible that a team might give him more, and I use last year's MLE for example. the problem with the Knicks is the Bucks own bird rights to him and are way under the cap. with a shorter MLE[5 years] the odds of the knicks snagging this player is very very low. thats why I try to stay realistic with these players.

I look at washington, and while Kwame has had a BAD season and his injury with his foot/ankle is still lingering--what on Earth would make them not match an offer for him, or trade him, unless they are getting back talent=talent.

you can se the direction of the bullets, they already have enough young players, they traded their lottery pick last year. ernie G said about 10 times he will match any offer for kwame, so at a point, i say, lets move on.

the one reason why I say Steven Hunter is because there is no barrier to entry and I do believe the cost will be friendly--something between 2-3mm for 3 years or so. Now Gadzuric is the better player, but the reality of acquiring him is very low and it will cost$$$$$$$$

If we get Gadzuric, cool, but we have to rationilize that every frikin team in the NBA isnt there to help out the Knicks and there will be a REALITY with what we can/cannot spend soon.

So for the Knicks, it might be better to grab a lower level FA who fits what we are looking for--young athletic long, will be fine as a back up, but can progress with potential down the line etc...and the *cost* is non-prohibitive.
RIP Crushalot😞
djsunyc
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3/8/2005  1:49 PM
alot of pheonix fans (from other boards) are pretty much saying that hunter will either pick up his option for next season or sign an extension b/c he LOVES it there.

[Edited by - djsunyc on 03/08/2005 13:51:04]
fishmike
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3/8/2005  1:56 PM
Hunter has potential and I'm sure if we pick him up we will overpay. You almost have too these days. The price of bigmen is nuts. Look at what guys like Jerome James and Calvin Booth have gotten. That market is weird.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
Allanfan20
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3/8/2005  2:09 PM
Yeah, and also look at Brian Cardinal and Adonal Foyle. They are decent players, but Foyle is freaking making 40 mm after being the backup to Dampier for a couple of years. That is just ridiculous. After last season, the market for some of these players sky rocketed. Briggs could be right about this. Teams may very well be willing to spend more than the MLE to get a guy like Gaduric, which is ashame. I really like him and would love him to be on the Knicks.
“Whenever I’m about to do something, I think ‘Would an idiot do that?’ and if they would, I do NOT do that thing.”- Dwight Schrute
Mondo
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3/8/2005  2:15 PM
Rodman was nuts, it's too bad he screwed himself over after the Bulls broke up.
gunsnewing
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3/8/2005  2:19 PM
exactly why i don't want to waist on time and money on hunter and gadzuric and focus on the centers in this draft or Jackie Butler instead or hopefully land Kwame who really worked on getting bigger so that he can play center.
Insider: Rebounding Rate

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