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kip3f
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2/15/2005  4:16 PM
OK, I was inspired to calculate the odds of getting a good pick in the upcoming draft. I computed the odds of getting the 1st pick, the 2nd, the 3rd, the top 2, and the top 3. The first column is the probabilities for the team with the first pick, the second column is for the second pick, etc.

Prob(win 1st pick) = 
           25           20         15.7           12          8.9          6.4          4.4
Prob(win 2nd pick) = 
       21.553       18.909       15.845       12.709       9.7701       7.2133       5.0575
Prob(win 3rd pick) = 
       17.845       17.221       15.703        13.43       10.819       8.2596       5.9331
Prob(win 1st or 2nd pick) = 
       46.553       38.909       31.545       24.709        18.67       13.613       9.4575
Prob(win 1st or 2nd or 3rd pick) = 
       64.398        56.13       47.247       38.139       29.489       21.873       15.391


So if the Knicks stay in the 5 spot, then they have about a 29.5% chance of getting a top 3 pick.
AUTOADVERT
MikeFromNY
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2/15/2005  4:29 PM
I'll take those chances.



Hopefully, Utah puts it together somehow, and starts winning some games...
Marv
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2/15/2005  5:44 PM
All right - a mathematical genius. Stick around - you're going to come in handy.
kip3f
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2/15/2005  11:15 PM
Posted by Marv:

All right - a mathematical genius. Stick around - you're going to come in handy.

I'm no mathematical genius, but I do work with them. I'm a programmer.
Solace
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2/16/2005  10:46 AM
Posted by kip3f:
Posted by Marv:

All right - a mathematical genius. Stick around - you're going to come in handy.

I'm no mathematical genius, but I do work with them. I'm a programmer.

Not to start a nerd-fest, but... really? So am I. :)
...
Allanfan20
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2/16/2005  11:03 AM
Posted by MikeFromNY:

I'll take those chances.



Hopefully, Utah puts it together somehow, and starts winning some games...

Troy Murphy is injured and I think might be expected to come back somewhat soon. Maybe since they'll be fully healthy, the Warriors will go on a late season run. :-) GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WARRIORS!!!!!!!
“Whenever I’m about to do something, I think ‘Would an idiot do that?’ and if they would, I do NOT do that thing.”- Dwight Schrute
KnickerBlogger
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2/16/2005  12:03 PM
Very nice, but the Knicks are in the 6th spot:

ATL
CHA
NOH 11-41
GSW 14-38
UTH 17-35
NYK 20-32

I would think it's possible for them to get into the 4th spot. But I don't think they'll crack the top 3.
http://www.knickerblogger.net
daddynel
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2/16/2005  7:00 PM
Posted by Solace:
Posted by kip3f:
Posted by Marv:

All right - a mathematical genius. Stick around - you're going to come in handy.

I'm no mathematical genius, but I do work with them. I'm a programmer.

Not to start a nerd-fest, but... really? So am I. :)
sounds like a fun job guys. i'm a comdom tester.
Solace
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USA
2/16/2005  7:31 PM
Posted by daddynel:
Posted by Solace:
Posted by kip3f:
Posted by Marv:

All right - a mathematical genius. Stick around - you're going to come in handy.

I'm no mathematical genius, but I do work with them. I'm a programmer.

Not to start a nerd-fest, but... really? So am I. :)
sounds like a fun job guys. i'm a comdom tester.

And what do you test them on? Horses? Are you on the receiving end?

[Edited by - Solace on 02/16/2005 19:31:45]
...
Bonn1997
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2/16/2005  8:48 PM
Posted by Solace:
Posted by daddynel:
Posted by Solace:
Posted by kip3f:
Posted by Marv:

All right - a mathematical genius. Stick around - you're going to come in handy.

I'm no mathematical genius, but I do work with them. I'm a programmer.

Not to start a nerd-fest, but... really? So am I. :)
sounds like a fun job guys. i'm a comdom tester.

And what do you test them on? Horses? Are you on the receiving end?

[Edited by - Solace on 02/16/2005 19:31:45]
LMAO!
Mac
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Japan
2/18/2005  7:26 AM
Posted by KnickerBlogger:

Very nice, but the Knicks are in the 6th spot:

ATL
CHA
NOH 11-41
GSW 14-38
UTH 17-35
NYK 20-32

I would think it's possible for them to get into the 4th spot. But I don't think they'll crack the top 3.

Anything can happen in the second half of the season. I hope the losing continues, though.
Knicksfan
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USA
2/18/2005  10:51 AM
Hmmm.... Anything can happen in the second half. I really hope Utah starts winning again only so we can move up in the lottery projections. Now, about the Knicks, who knows what will happen. With the season we've already had, I hope we can at least get a great pick and improve this team dramatically for next season. (Bogut! Bogut!)
Knicks_Fan
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