It's now a fact of life that the greatest lifeline in any NBA draft is college
underclassmen. By the time most players reach their senior seasons, their class already has
been picked clean. While every year there are a handful of nongraduates who make
bad decisions about declaring for the draft, for the most part, the NBA embraces
college underclassmen.
Since high school stud Kevin Garnett broke the college barrier in 1995 and
declared for the NBA draft directly from high school, the number of college
seniors in the first round has dwindled at an alarming rate.
In 1995, there were 20 seniors taken in the first round, six in the lottery. In
1998, the number dipped to 14 seniors, with five in the lottery, and the slide
continued each year thereafter:
1999: 13 first-round seniors; only four in the lottery.
2000: 11 first-round seniors; only three in the lottery.
2001: Four first-round seniors; only one – Shane Battier – in the lottery.
2002: Eight first-round seniors; only one – Melvin Ely – in the lottery.
2003: Nine first-round seniors; only three in the lottery.
The 2004 draft was among the worst ever for collegiate seniors. Just four –
Rafael Araujo, Luke Jackson, Jameer Nelson, and Tony Allen – were taken in the
first round.
This year should be better. Four or five seniors seem to be first-round
material. The other 25 or so picks will have to come from a growing pool of
underclassmen, international players and high school seniors.
This college underclassmen class might be as important as ever. The high school
class is the weakest it's been in years, and teams are getting increasingly wary
of the influx of young international players.
That means that the bulk of this year's draft will be college underclassmen.
Who's thinking about declaring and where would they go? Insider talked to a
group of NBA scouts and other league sources to get you the lowdown on where
this year's underclassmen stand.

LIKELY TO DECLARE
These are underclassmen considered likely to declare for the 2005 NBA draft:

1. Chris Taft, So., Pittsburgh: Big man looked like a lock for the top three
before the season began, but he's struggled this year. However, scouts still
claim he's still near the top of their draft boards and believe he will
definitely declare.

2. Andrew Bogut, So., Utah: Bogut desperately wanted to make the jump last year
but wisely decided to wait. Last season he would've been a late first-rounder.
Now he's a lock for the top 10 and could move into the top-five by draft night.

3. Deron Williams, Jr., Illinois: His stock has never been higher, and he won't
miss the opportunity to make the jump. Most scouts believe he's the second-best
point guard prospect in the draft behind Chris Paul and should be a lottery
pick.

4. Raymond Felton, Jr., North Carolina: Felton has flirted with declaring the
last two seasons, this will likely be the year he actually does it. While scouts
remain split on how good of a prospect he'll be, his stock is high enough that
he knows he'll go in the first half of the first round. That should be enough.

5. Antoine Wright, Jr., Texas A&M: Wright is telling folks he's in for sure.
After a terrible sophomore season, he's rebounded enough to get his stock back
into the mid-first round. With great workouts, he's got a shot at the lottery.

The Huskies' Robinson (right) has the makings of a first-round pick in
spite of his size.

6. Francisco Garcia, Jr., Louisville: Rick Pitino already has conceded that
Garcia is leaving. He flirted with the draft last year, but his stock wasn't
strong enough for a first-round guarantee. He should get that this year, though
scouts are all over the place about where he'll land in the first round. He
could go as high as 15 or as low as 30 at this point.

7. Nate Robinson, Jr., Washington: He was the darling of the Chicago pre-draft
camp last season, but still couldn't convince scouts that he was NBA-worthy
because of his size. That's changed this year. Now, many scouts believe he's
good enough to warrant a possible late first-round selection. More likely, he's
an early second-rounder, but neither is enough to push Robinson out the door.

8. Sean Banks, So., Memphis: He doesn't have much choice. His grades forced him
off the team midseason and his off-the-court behavior has poisoned his stock.
He'll try to go to draft camps and seduce teams with his game.

ON THE FENCE
These are potential first-round prospects who are considering putting their
names in the draft but are still undecided:

1. Chris Paul, So., Wake Forest: He's a consensus top-five pick in the draft
right now and could go as high as No. 1. So, what is he waiting for? Paul loves
playing for Wake Forest and isn't sure he wants to leave just yet. If the
Bobcats get the No. 1 pick, they might make him an offer he can't refuse.

2. Marvin Williams, Fr., North Carolina: Williams could have declared last year
and been a late lottery pick, but he wisely chose to go to North Carolina. He's
been good enough, in limited minutes, to get serious consideration for the No. 1
pick. However, the kid talks like he's coming back for another year.

3. Rudy Gay, Fr., UConn: Gay would also be a high lottery pick if he declared,
but the word out of UConn right now is that he's leaning toward returning for
his sophomore season.

4. Josh Boone, So., UConn: Boone's stock has risen as dramatically as anyone's
in the draft. He's worked his way into the mid-to-late lottery in part because
of his improved play on the offensive end of the floor and in part because there
just aren't many good big men in the draft. However, he's on the Emeka Okafor
three-year graduation plan at UConn and is said to be leaning toward returning
for his junior year.

5. Rashad McCants, Jr., North Carolina: Talent-wise, McCants has always been a
favorite of scouts. But questions about his attitude and coachability have hurt
his stock in the past. He's resolved some of those questions this year, but
scouts still seem a little wary. Right now it looks like he's in the second half
of the first round. Given his talent, he might want to wait this out one more
year.

The only thing that might hold Jack, center, back: The depth of 2005
point-guard class.

6. Jarrett Jack, Jr., Georgia Tech: Jack has interest in the NBA and if he can
get assurances that he's a top-20 pick, he'll likely declare. Normally, that
wouldn't be a problem given his unquestionable talent, but this is a deep point
guard class that might push Jack a little further down the charts than he'd
like.

7. John Gilchrist, Jr., Maryland: Gilchrist has a well-documented jones for
playing in the NBA. He has the talent to make him a mid-first rounder. But
questions about his attitude, focus and constant comparisons to Stephon Marbury
have hurt his stock to the point that he might be better off returning for
another season.

8. Rodney Carney, Jr., Memphis: He's improved to the point that he'll get
serious first-round consideration, but here's his dilemma: Can he improve his
game enough to warrant staying in school another year? The biggest knock on
Carney is that he's soft. That isn't likely to change with another year in
school. Look for him to declare and get picked somewhere in the second half of
the first round.

9. Kennedy Winston, Jr., Alabama: He's another guy that scouts are all over the
board on. He's a fantastic college player, but what is he in the pros? Winston
might be a guy who declares, doesn't hire an agent to keep his college
eligibility, and looks for a promise. He's an eye-of-the-beholder type player
who won't be able to rely on a general consensus from scouts.

10. Daniel Gibson, Fr., Texas: Gibson has received enough buzz over the past
month that there's a good likelihood that he'd be drafted in the second half of
the first round if he put his name in. However, with another year of solid play,
he could be a lottery pick. Chances are he'll wait.

11. Ronnie Brewer, So., Arkansas: Brewer is a tough guy to project. Some scouts
believe he has the talent to be a lottery pick, others aren't convinced he's
really a point guard. He could be another guy who declares, keeps his college
eligibility, and then looks for a promise in the mid first round. He has some
fans.

12. Randolph Morris, Fr., Kentucky: He's not ready. That's clear. But he's a
real center, something this draft is almost totally devoid of. Someone will take
him in the first round because of that. However, he could really improve his
stock by playing another year or two at Kentucky.

13. Ike Diogu, Jr., Arizona State: Some scouts love Diogu because of his
impressive production at the college level and compare him to Elton Brand.
Others think he's the second coming of Malik Rose. He might be the most
difficult guy in the draft to project. He'll likely declare, keep his
eligibility, and see if he can convince one of his fans to guarantee him a
selection in the first round.

Declaring for the NBA early might be Morrison's best option.

14. Adam Morrison, So., Gonzaga: Morrison is another of those
"eye-of-the-beholder" type players. Some teams absolutely love him because of
his attitude, scoring ability and basketball IQ. Others are clearly concerned
that his lack of athletic ability will hurt his chances of being special in the
NBA. The thing is, Morrison isn't going to improve his athleticism by staying in
school. In other words, he doesn't have a lot to gain by sticking around. If he
could get a promise somewhere in the 20s, he should take it and run.

15. Mardy Collins, Jr., Temple: Collins has drawn a lot of praise over the past
month from scouts. He's got great size for the position, has true point-guard
instincts and really racks up the steals. A sleeper who could really rise with
great workouts.

16. Malik Hairston, Fr., Oregon: Flirted with the NBA last year. He's helped his
stock this season with solid play at Oregon, but he'll need to wait another year
or two if he wants to crack the top 15.

17. Shelden Williams, Jr., Duke: He's a big, powerful low-post player who grabs
rebounds and blocks a high volume of shots. But teams question his size. He
doesn't have a lot of buzz, which means he might be better off staying in
school.

18. J.R. Giddens, So., Kansas: At the start of the season, some scouts thought
Giddens had the potential to be a lottery pick. However, he's struggled this
year and scouts are concerned that he hasn't developed any mid-range game. He
needs to wait.

19. Charlie Villanueva, So., UConn: He's been itching to go to the NBA since he
was a junior in high school. But his inconsistency has kept his stock relatively
low. He needs to dominate for an entire season before declaring.

20. Dee Brown, Jr., Illinois: Brown would like to make the jump, but scouts want
to see more of him at point guard. Once teammates Deron Williams and Luther Head
leave this summer, he'll have the chance to run the Illini. If he does it well,
he'll rise on every draft board. Right now, he's better off returning for his
senior season.

21. Jordan Farmar, Fr., UCLA: He's a promising prospect who will get lots of
love in another year or two. Right now, he's just too inexperienced and
turnover-prone.

22. Hassan Adams, Jr., Arizona: After a stellar sophomore campaign, he's been a
bit disappointing this year. His lack of size for the position and a shaky
outside jumper should translate into another year at Arizona.

23. Mustafa Shakur, Jr., Arizona: A highly-touted prospect who has slipped in
the eyes of most scouts. He must improve his jumper and work on running the
offense in the half-court set.

24. Paul Davis, Jr., Michigan State: Another highly thought of player who has
struggled this season. He should wait.

25. Sean May, Jr., North Carolina: He's a big guy who can score in the paint,
but his lack of size and a forthcoming position change probably will force him
to go back.

26. Bracey Wright, Jr., Indiana: He's a big time scorer, but size, and lack of
strength hurt his chances of making noise in this draft. Maybe next year.

TESTING THE WATERS
Second-rounders who might use workouts and the Chicago pre-draft camp to play
themselves into the first round.

1. Curtis Stinson, So., Iowa State: He's already 22 years old and knows his
window is closing. Enough teams like him that he has a shot of cracking the late
first round with great workouts and a good camp in Chicago.

2. Steven Smith, Jr., LaSalle: One of the best scorers in the country has
struggled to get on NBA team's radar screens. A strong performance in Chicago
could change that.

3. Craig Smith, Jr., Boston College: Smith has gotten a lot of attention thanks
to the Eagles' unbeaten status this year. If he were a couple of inches taller,
he'd be a first-round lock. As it stands, he's in the same position Lawrence
Roberts and Ryan Gomes were in last season – he's a tweener.

4. Bryce Taylor, Fr., Oregon: This shooting guard has almost been as impressive
as Hairston. He really needs to wait another year or two before flirting with
the league, but the word is that he might test the waters.

5. Curtis Withers, Jr., Charlotte: The bruising forward gets compared to a young
Ben Wallace all the time. He's has a similar toughness and tenacity. He excelled
at the under-20 championships for Team USA but seems to have plateaued a bit
this season. He's the type of player who can help himself in a pre-draft camp if
he declares.

Kleiza

6. Glen Davis, Fr., LSU: A wide body who has put up solid numbers as a freshman.
He wants to declare, but how many teams are looking for 6-8, 300-pound freshmen
these days?

7. Linas Kleiza, So., Missouri: A talented forward who can play inside and out.
The native of Lithuania is rumored to be a favorite of Donnie Nelson of the
Mavs.

8. Anthony Roberson, Jr., Florida: Another 6-1 scoring machine who is too little
to play the two in the NBA. He's wanted out since his freshman year, but has
wisely stayed in school. It's doubtful he'll do anything this summer to convince
teams he's a first rounder.

9. Darius Washington, Fr., Memphis: He should meet Anthony Roberson Jr.
Washington's another shooting guard in a point guard's body who, for some
reason, still believes he's a point guard. His open battles with Sean Banks this
season haven't helped his stock. He has NBA-itus, but he's going to have to
either wait or risk slipping into the second round.

10.Jose Juan Barea, Jr., Northeastern: He's a scoring machine who has shown some
good point guard skills. However, he tries to do too much on Northeastern and is
paying for it, averaging 4.6 turnovers a game. He could improve his stock at
Chicago if he can prove that he can play under control.

11. Brandon Bass, So., LSU: Another tweener who didn't do enough to impress NBA
scouts last season. Unless he grows another inch or two by the draft, it's
doubtful he can make a better impression.

12. Nana (Pops) Mensah-Bonsu, Jr., George Washington: He's an unbelievable
athlete. A highlight reel waiting to happen. However, he's still very raw and
will need to bulk up for the pros. He has NBA potential, but he's a reach right
now.

12. Nana (Pops) Mensah-Bonsu, Jr., George Washington: He's an unbelievable
athlete. A highlight reel waiting to happen. However, he's still very raw and
will need to bulk up for the pros. He has NBA potential, but he's a reach right
now.


I know you guys are thinking what I'm thinking - we could have had Nana and Nene!! One thing I don't get though - if you have a cool name like Nana, why do you a nickname like Pops???