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Draft lottery odds top 10 positions
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BRIGGS
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2/7/2005  2:06 PM
obviously they give you PP balls-but here is the breakdown positions
1---250
2---200
3---157
4---105
5---104
6---64
7---37
8---36
9---18
10---9


Now, I do know that the Orlando Magic beat huge odds one year, but for the most part, you want to be at a MINIMUM position 6, but I believe 5 is where you not only have a significantly increased chance, but also the top 5 pick stigma usually is a huge benefit if you dont win.

Right now, we are basically tied for position 6 with Milwaukee
Atlanta, Charlotte and NO have locked positions 1-2-3 and GS has what looks like a strnglehold on position 4. Right now, we are 2 games out of position 2 and we are playing that team tonight, a team that I think with Kirilenko should get significantly better in the 2nd half.

we need to be around 11-24 the rest of the way, which I believe will secure 5. that would leave us at
29-53
RIP Crushalot😞
AUTOADVERT
fishmike
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2/7/2005  2:18 PM
remember, those balls determine the top 3 positions, not just the top 1. If you are #5 you have an excellent chance at moving up to a top 3. Once you are there you can also do a little manuvering. Cha doesnt worry me because they want the PG (Paul).

Neither Taft or Marvin Williams blow me away. I have seen Williams 3 times so far. Nice player, yes. Franchise? I dont see it... not by a long shot. I think franchise and I expect to see what guys like Carmello, Duncan, Laetner, Wade, OK4, Gordon, CWebb, etc did in college. Not coming off the bench and looking "solid" while surrounded by the best talent in the NCAA, but thats just me.

GS could be had also.. they are simply stupid. I dont have a deal on the top of my head but they dont draft well and resign players to huge contracts while their team stinks
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
crzymdups
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2/7/2005  2:31 PM
Briggs, obviously, you covet Bogut, but if we don't get the no. 1, chances are we won't get him. Who do you see drafting after that. Say we're picking 5th and we tell Boone he wouldn't slip past us if he came out this year: would he come out? I covet Boone at this point, basically.

I like Taft, but see him as a Wilcox type aka not ever truly dominant, nor even consistant. Maybe I'm wrong.

Marvin Williams reminds me of Corey Maggette's college career so far. And while Maggette is great now, it took him a long time to get there. Marvin is going to have a lot of growing to do in the NBA and I think Zeke knows he doesn't have that luxury.

I'd love to see Bogut or Boone get here, but what's the back up plan? Please don't say Splitter.
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BigSm00th
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2/7/2005  3:57 PM
I like Marvin Williams a lot, considering he's only a freshman.

Bogut's still my man though, I love that guy.
#Knickstaps
crzymdups
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2/7/2005  4:00 PM
I like:

1) Boone
2) Bogut
3) Taft
4) Warrick

If none of those guys is available when we pick, I say it's time to explore trades where we pick for someone else and package the pick and either Penny/Timmy for someone like Randolph or Boozer. If Martynas Andriuskevicius is available we could trade him to a team like Utah and they'd probably eat it up. They need to surround AK47 with young players who play Sloan's system. Not sure who Portland would want, but they'd probably do a trade just to get out from under Zach's contract.
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fishmike
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2/7/2005  4:07 PM
if Bogut is gone how about the #5 pick and TT's expiring deal for Pietrus and Troy Murphy?
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
crzymdups
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2/7/2005  4:11 PM
Posted by fishmike:

if Bogut is gone how about the #5 pick and TT's expiring deal for Pietrus and Troy Murphy?

I don't love it. I see Troy as a young Kurt. But it's the right idea.

BTW: if Zeke goes after Antoine Walker with the MLE before going after Stromile Swift, I'll have a freaking heart attack. I know this will happen, but dear god, WHY????
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fishmike
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2/7/2005  4:15 PM
on second thought I would just take Warrick. Look to turn NAzr and cash into a sign and trade for Swift. Just move KT for Calvin Booth if we cant do it before the deadline.

then we can tank again next year but we will do it with a line up that will really excite :)

pg Marbury
sg Crawford
sf Ariza
pf Warrick
c Swift
average verticle leap: 40 inches
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
crzymdups
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2/7/2005  4:16 PM
Posted by fishmike:

on second thought I would just take Warrick. Look to turn NAzr and cash into a sign and trade for Swift. Just move KT for Calvin Booth if we cant do it before the deadline.

then we can tank again next year but we will do it with a line up that will really excite :)

pg Marbury
sg Crawford
sf Ariza
pf Warrick
c Swift
average verticle leap: 40 inches

Now, that, I like. The only problem is: average starter's height: 6'5".
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crzymdups
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2/7/2005  4:17 PM
Posted by crzymdups:
Posted by fishmike:

on second thought I would just take Warrick. Look to turn NAzr and cash into a sign and trade for Swift. Just move KT for Calvin Booth if we cant do it before the deadline.

then we can tank again next year but we will do it with a line up that will really excite :)

pg Marbury
sg Crawford
sf Ariza
pf Warrick
c Swift
average verticle leap: 40 inches

Now, that, I like. The only problem is: average starter's height: 6'5".

BUT, I love Warrick and Stro and they play bigger than they are and they'd be perfect in a running game. I'm not sure if Marbs can run a running game anymore with his knees and ankles though. But if we can get Warrick and Stro, I'd do cartwheels.
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djsunyc
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2/7/2005  4:18 PM
Posted by fishmike:

pg Marbury
sg Crawford
sf Ariza
pf Warrick
c Swift
average verticle leap: 40 inches

that team right there would be illmatic. we'd lose a bunch of games but damn if we don't make the highlight reels every night. dunk central.
MaTT4281
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2/7/2005  4:18 PM
Can Warrick play PF? Don't follow the NCAA scene too much, but my friends have told me he is just an athletic 3.

[Edited by - MaTT4281 on 02/07/2005 16:21:23]
fishmike
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2/7/2005  4:18 PM
Walker is better than Swift, and for the MLE its a coup. Walker is a 20/8/5 player. Yes he's retarded and does some dumb things but he can play. I dont think Swift if a MLE player. Not with the kind of $$$ Boozer and Okur got. Swift should get something like Crawford got... 7 years $55mm... something like that. Perfect deal is to use Nazr in a sign and trade.

Think about it from Memphis's standpoint. Is Stro is leaving anyway, why not take back NAzr at $3mm for a year? Plus you get Stro's agent to push the thing through.

Remember, Memphis payroll skyrockets when Gasol and these other guy's extentions kick in.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
djsunyc
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2/7/2005  4:21 PM
Posted by fishmike:

Walker is better than Swift, and for the MLE its a coup. Walker is a 20/8/5 player. Yes he's retarded and does some dumb things but he can play. I dont think Swift if a MLE player. Not with the kind of $$$ Boozer and Okur got. Swift should get something like Crawford got... 7 years $55mm... something like that. Perfect deal is to use Nazr in a sign and trade.

Think about it from Memphis's standpoint. Is Stro is leaving anyway, why not take back NAzr at $3mm for a year? Plus you get Stro's agent to push the thing through.

Remember, Memphis payroll skyrockets when Gasol and these other guy's extentions kick in.

one question, when you take a qualified offer, doesn't it mean that you can't get traded during the year NOR re-sign with the same team? if that's the case, then memphis can't do a sign and trade. but am i totally off base with this one?
fishmike
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2/7/2005  4:22 PM
Posted by MaTT4281:

Can Warrick play PF? Don't follow the NCAA scene too much, but my friends have told me he is a very athletic 3.

[Edited by - MaTT4281 on 02/07/2005 16:19:12]
No... he's built exactly like Marion. Strong and lean, explosive. Of the charts dunker and one of the nations best rebounders. Good ball handler, doesnt have good range on the jumper (like Marion). Tough defender though.

He's a SF all the way through, but that team I mentioned is the poor man's Suns :)
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
fishmike
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2/7/2005  4:24 PM
Posted by djsunyc:
Posted by fishmike:

Walker is better than Swift, and for the MLE its a coup. Walker is a 20/8/5 player. Yes he's retarded and does some dumb things but he can play. I dont think Swift if a MLE player. Not with the kind of $$$ Boozer and Okur got. Swift should get something like Crawford got... 7 years $55mm... something like that. Perfect deal is to use Nazr in a sign and trade.

Think about it from Memphis's standpoint. Is Stro is leaving anyway, why not take back NAzr at $3mm for a year? Plus you get Stro's agent to push the thing through.

Remember, Memphis payroll skyrockets when Gasol and these other guy's extentions kick in.

one question, when you take a qualified offer, doesn't it mean that you can't get traded during the year NOR re-sign with the same team? if that's the case, then memphis can't do a sign and trade. but am i totally off base with this one?
Yes, Swift cant be traded this year, but Mem has his Bird rights. Stro is an unrestricted FA, but MEm can go over the cap to sign him because he's their player... thus the S&T.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
djsunyc
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2/7/2005  4:26 PM
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by djsunyc:
Posted by fishmike:

Walker is better than Swift, and for the MLE its a coup. Walker is a 20/8/5 player. Yes he's retarded and does some dumb things but he can play. I dont think Swift if a MLE player. Not with the kind of $$$ Boozer and Okur got. Swift should get something like Crawford got... 7 years $55mm... something like that. Perfect deal is to use Nazr in a sign and trade.

Think about it from Memphis's standpoint. Is Stro is leaving anyway, why not take back NAzr at $3mm for a year? Plus you get Stro's agent to push the thing through.

Remember, Memphis payroll skyrockets when Gasol and these other guy's extentions kick in.

one question, when you take a qualified offer, doesn't it mean that you can't get traded during the year NOR re-sign with the same team? if that's the case, then memphis can't do a sign and trade. but am i totally off base with this one?
Yes, Swift cant be traded this year, but Mem has his Bird rights. Stro is an unrestricted FA, but MEm can go over the cap to sign him because he's their player... thus the S&T.

ok. i think i got the qualified offer and declining baseball arbitration mixed up.
newyorknewyork
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2/7/2005  4:29 PM
Posted by fishmike:

on second thought I would just take Warrick. Look to turn NAzr and cash into a sign and trade for Swift. Just move KT for Calvin Booth if we cant do it before the deadline.

then we can tank again next year but we will do it with a line up that will really excite :)

pg Marbury
sg Crawford
sf Ariza
pf Warrick
c Swift
average verticle leap: 40 inches

In that offense though Marbury would have to go for broke every game. And everyone would just have to feed off of what Marbury does. I would love that as part of a rotation to throw at teams. But I don't know if I want that as the main rotation. But I know your a smart guy fish so I take it as u see it as a process of just adding young athletic talent and see where we end up.
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crzymdups
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2/7/2005  4:30 PM
I think Memphis will try to package a Stro s&t with Bonzi and something else to land a superstar caliber bigman. We'll see though. I'd love to get Stro.

As I said, if we can't get Boone, Bogut, Taft or Warrick, I'd explore trade scenarios for our lotto pick.
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newyorknewyork
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2/7/2005  4:33 PM
Posted by BRIGGS:

obviously they give you PP balls-but here is the breakdown positions
1---250
2---200
3---157
4---105
5---104
6---64
7---37
8---36
9---18
10---9


Now, I do know that the Orlando Magic beat huge odds one year, but for the most part, you want to be at a MINIMUM position 6, but I believe 5 is where you not only have a significantly increased chance, but also the top 5 pick stigma usually is a huge benefit if you dont win.

Right now, we are basically tied for position 6 with Milwaukee
Atlanta, Charlotte and NO have locked positions 1-2-3 and GS has what looks like a strnglehold on position 4. Right now, we are 2 games out of position 2 and we are playing that team tonight, a team that I think with Kirilenko should get significantly better in the 2nd half.

we need to be around 11-24 the rest of the way, which I believe will secure 5. that would leave us at
29-53

Hahahah. I'll admit. The other day I was looking at how we could sneak up deep into the lottery. GS only has 13wins so unless they make a strong push they probably will hold onto that spot. But we can definatly be worse than Miluakee, Utah, Portland, Toronto. But one of these teams other than Utah might make a move to truley solidify tanking the season. Which is what we should do.
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Draft lottery odds top 10 positions

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