http://www.realgm.com/src_goaltending.php?articleid=48

Diamonds In The Rough
By Kevin Broom - 6th November, 2004 11:37 AM

Predicting which players will “break out” has become an analytic sport in recent years. Most of the lists are primarily guesswork — the analyst thinks of young players that looked pretty good the year before, and decides whether that player is likely to maintain that level or get better.

Recent break out stars have included players such as Michael Redd and Zach Randolph. Both players performed very well in limited minutes then received increased playing time, and were much celebrated for their abrupt improvement. In fact, their per minute numbers did not change significantly when they received more minutes. And it is that fact that suggests a method to add some science to the hunt for diamonds in the rough.

Statistical research conducted by CNNSI’s John Hollinger and others has demonstrated that per minute statistics can be very useful in player analysis. Standard objections about low minute players posting stats primarily against backups or only in garbage time have been examined and proven largely incorrect. When a player performs well per minute in relatively few minutes, he’ll usually perform as well or better per minute with increased playing time.

Most of the time, NBA coaches distribute minutes sensibly. Coaches live and work with the players for nine months a year and know their relative strengths and weaknesses far better than any outside observer. Still, the coaches are human, and well stocked with the same kind of biases, prejudices, and rigid thinking as the rest of us. Sometimes coaches aren’t evaluating properly because they look too much at how a player looks on the court instead of what he’s doing. Sometimes they prefer giving minutes to established veterans who may be in decline over young players who may make mistakes. Sometimes, they're just wrong.

So-called hustle players often earn playing time in this way. They charge recklessly about the court, dive for loose balls, and generally make a good show of trying hard. But what they do doesn’t show in the stat sheet, and the team falls further behind when he’s on the floor. Later, fans, media and coaches collectively lament the lazy big man who just doesn’t play with Hustle Player’s drive — except that the lazy youngster was controlling the paint, scoring when he got the ball, grabbing rebounds and helping the team perform better when on the court. This is where stats can be useful; as objective measures of what a player is actually doing while on the court. Stats provide a tool for making sure we adhere to John Wooden’s maxim not to confuse effort with achievement.

The reliability of per minute statistics as a tool in evaluation has presented a method to identify swiftly players who may not be getting as much playing time as their performance warrants. Coaches could use such information to adjust playing rotations, general managers could use it as a shopping list to find undervalued players, and columnists like me can use it to predict which players might become this year’s breakout hero.

In the interest of not putting the less stat geeky reader to sleep, I am not including the precise formula. Please email me at kevinbroom@realgm.com if you’re interested. The nuts and bolts of the Diamond rating are comparing the player’s per 40 minute statistics with his per game statistics and to the average performer in the league. Then I eliminate guys who were significantly below average, guys with more than 30 minutes of playing time per game, much older players who physically can’t play more minutes, and everyone who hasn’t played at least 150 total minutes. (The last cutoff isn’t as arbitrary as it sounds, but I sense yawning.)

Here’s the top 10:

Potential Diamonds

10. Dan Gadzuric, C, Milwaukee — Gadzuric is never going to challenge for a league scoring title. He is a quality rebounder and shot blocker, however, who could become a solid starting center if he can reduce his fouling (5.9 per 40 minutes last season) and stay on the floor.

9. Zendon Hamilton, F/C, Milwaukee — Hamilton played just 10 minutes a game for Philly last season, and was an afterthought throughout the league during free agency. A 29-year old, 6-11 big man, Hamilton was 15th in per minute rebounding. He recently had surgery to repair cartilage in his right knee. When healthy, don’t be surprised if he’s this year’s version of Brian Skinner or Mark Blount.

8. Mehmet Okur, C, Utah — Kept on the bench in Detroit because of middling defense, Okur is a skilled big man who will play a major role this season in Utah once he gains Jerry Sloan’s trust.

7. Danny Fortson, F/C, Seattle — Undersized at just 6-8, Fortson has ranked among the league’s top per minute rebounders for several seasons. Entering his eighth season, Fortson is still just 28 years old, and figures to get playing time in Seattle’s big-man starved rotation.

6. Chris Andersen, F/C, New Orleans — Andersen contributes precisely what every coach claims he wants from his bigs — rebounds and blocked shots. He hasn’t scored much, but the data suggests that may be attributable to lack of opportunity. Out of 442 players who appeared in an NBA game last season, Andersen tied for 393rd in possessions used per minute. Unfortunately, he signed in New Orleans, which already has solid big men on the roster.

5. Stromile Swift, F/C, Memphis — Everyone’s favorite breakout player candidate, Swift may have to wait one more year. No one gets big minutes in Hubie Brown’s time sharing system, but if Swift was left on the court for starter minutes, he’d end up averaging in the neighborhood of 18 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocked shots per game.

4. Antonio Daniels, PG, Seattle — The player nobody seemed to want, Daniels became a quality point guard last season for the Sonics. He led the league in assist-to-turnover ratio, and could be a starter for many teams. Inexplicably he’s coming off the bench again this season, this time behind Luke Ridnour, who might one day be adequate — if he improves.

3. David West, F, New Orleans — Statistically, West is nearly indistinguishable per minute from PJ Brown, the man he backs up. Need a rebounding frontcourt player maybe on the cheap? Contact the Hornets and inquire about West or Andersen.

2. Mike Sweetney, PF, New York — This is a suck-up to neither Knicks fans nor Georgetown fans. When he gets sufficient playing time, Sweetney will be among the league leaders in rebounding. He’ll score too, if the Knicks ever get around to throwing him the ball.

1. Marquis Daniels, G, Dallas — Last season, Hollinger had Daniels rated as the third best shooting guard in the NBA even though Daniels averaged only 8.5 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. Why the lofty rating despite such pedestrian stats? Daniels did it in just 18.5 minutes per game, shot nearly 50 percent from the floor and rarely committed a turnover

I'm putting a lock on this cause we did discuss this when the article first came out.

Posted by martin:

I'm putting a lock on this cause we did discuss this when the article first came out.

It looks like you didn't actually lock it. Or maybe Fish found a way to unlock it!

I agree that If Sweetney was left on the court for 30min every game he would produce. But I also believe he is a yr or 2 away from that. They just had an article stating how Sweetney & Ariza were tired already. And got a needed rest yesterday. Which explains a lot. Once Sweetney gets in season shape he will be able to play as aggressive as he wants to consistanlty which would allow him to put up good #S consistantly. Sweetney never played a full NBA season yet so this yr will be big for his development.

But Sweetney is definatly a guy who will put up #s. He knows how to rebound offensively and defensively and he knows how to draw fouls. Plus he has a lot of tools with his low post game coming around and his nice form on his jumper.