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KT getting killed by opponents' PFs
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Bonn1997
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11/30/2004  4:45 PM
It's hard to believe these #s, but I thought I'd post this and see what you thought

http://www.knickerblogger.net/

It's no secret that the Knicks' defense has been pitiful, but what surprised me is what position has been their worst. I would have thought opposing shooting guards would be circling the New York dates on their schedule, but it's actually been the power forward position that's given the Knicks the most trouble. Amazed as I was, 82games.com reports that PFs have a 20.8 PER against the Knicks. Checking their individual stats, it's Kurt Thomas (15.3, 22.5, -9.2) who seems to be the culprit. Just to make sure this year's results aren't a victim of small sample size, I checked last year's stats, where Kurt shows up as a below average defender (17.5 oPER) as well.

Watching the games I would have never believed this, so I decided to double check this manually. Since Thomas plays more minutes at PF than anyone else on the team, it's logical to judge his worth by the opposing starting PF. For every Knicks game, I added the stats for every PF that played more than 20 minutes. The compiled offensive line is very nice from an offensive standpoint: 15.3 Points in 33 minutes on 56% eFG. Of the 15 opponents in my list, only 5 had an adjusted shooting percentage under 50% against the Knicks.

The Knicks have played some great PFs in Duncan, Garnett, Nowitzki, and Brand, but even guys like Gooden (11-16, 25PTS 75% eFG), Austin Croshere (3-4 12PTS 100%), and Matt Bonner (12-16, 24PTS 75% in 2 games) are having great shooting nights. I know that Kurt has a great reputation as a man-man defender, but the numbers say otherwise. Guys like Garnett and Duncan will score against any defender, however if Kurt is as good as his reputation, he should be able to handle the Crosheres and Bonners of the NBA. Thomas' defense isn't the only issue. His ability to get to the charity stripe has been fading since 2001.


year FTA/402001 3.82002 2.92003 2.02004 0.8The news isn't all bad for Thomas, as his shooting as held steady over his career (currently at a nice even 50%), and his rebounding has spiked up this year. Additionally, he doesn't turn the ball over too often.

If you disliked reading the last two paragraphs as much as I hated writing them, you're going to really hate this one. At this moment, Thomas is the Knicks' most attractive tradable asset. Why? First, for GMs that still use traditional stats, he's a double-double (maybe the most misleading stat in the NBA) that's shooting 50% and probably still has that good reputation as a tough defender. His contract is reasonable (more reasonable this year at $6M, than in 4 years at $8M). Although he's past his prime at age 32, that Thomas has a been a healthy and solid contributor over the last 6 years makes him a nice fit for a team looking for a veteran presence to help them for a playoff run. Additionally the Knicks can easily make up for Thomas' production with two underused players in Sweetney and Williams. Finally, although other teams covet the Knicks' little used young players like Sweetney and Ariza, the Knicks would be unlikely to get fair value in return.
AUTOADVERT
Elite
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11/30/2004  4:58 PM
interesting... some how i dont think its his fault
MaTT4281
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11/30/2004  5:05 PM
I still keep coming back to the PFs we have played. We have only played 12 games, and yet we've seen the likes of Garnett, Brand, Dirk, Duncan, Walker, Jermain, and if you want to count him, Yao (he may not be a PF, but Kurt has defended him).
I will give you Gooden, but I'm not to surprised about Croshere and Bonner, who both have a shooting touch. Kurt is a good defender, but is he really that great of a perimeter defender?
s3231
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11/30/2004  5:31 PM
Something that doesn't shock me. Don't get me wrong I like KT, however, he pisses me off a lot sometimes because on some plays he just doesn't box out which ends up with the other team getting offensive rebounds and scoring because of it (It has happened a lot of times this season already but the one that sticks out the most was in our home opener when Pierce got like 2 or 3 offensive rebounds in a row before scoring because KT didn't box out on the play).
"This is a very cautious situation that we're in. You have to be conservative in terms of using your assets and using them wisely. We're building for the future." - Zeke (I guess not protecting a first round pick is being conservative)
VDesai
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11/30/2004  6:46 PM
It doesnt seem like that statistical method really takes into account help defense, which is a huge part of KT's game on that end of the floor. Anyway, sometimes you have you trust your eyes. Using statistical methods for defense brings in a lot more subjectivity as far as what you want to count, and what you want to heavily weight as a good defensive play...
daddynel
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11/30/2004  6:59 PM
in the past few years kt has guarded centers, and maned the center position. reguardless of what was written, although somewhat true to a point, i feel he gives up alot of speed to the goodens/brands/bonners/and particularly garnetts of the league. in all fairness to kt he's a better defender when he's bodying up his man. not when his man has the ability to drive by him.
  
on the same note, it's failed to be said that kt's still avg'ing about 50% from the field and taking alot more outside shots. that's alot better than some of those same players that get mostly layups and dunks.
Mac
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11/30/2004  7:20 PM
That's the truth. Good stuff.
gunsnewing
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11/30/2004  8:59 PM
exactly why I hated Kurt Thomas last year. Not only was he missing every shot but he was getting schooled by opposing PF's every game but his help defense IS really good. How much does it helps the Knicks, I don't know, but they are a horrible defensive team.
Bonn1997
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11/30/2004  10:41 PM
He got destroyed by Walker tonight.

A few thoughts on these stats, though:

1-I think his defense probably is overrated, although I think it's still decent.

2-I think Matt's right that he has played a lot of tough PFs.

3-The Knick's poor perimeter defense causes him to have to leave his man a lot of times to help.

Overall, if you can trade Kurt for a decent young PF or C, you do it. I'd include Nene, Curry, Haslem, Chandler, and Kwame Brown on the list.
UKDad
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11/30/2004  11:26 PM
There were a couple of times tonight (vs Atlanta) that KT did good. He did not defend the perimeter very well, but no one was doing that. Had the defense been there all night, I don't think the game would have gone into OT. Keep Kurt - Unless we can get a great PF or a good C.
The Old Man of UK...
TMS
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12/1/2004  10:25 AM
KT's strong against physical low post players, but struggles against quicker guys who can take him off the dribble like Walker can.

add a shotblocker & these issues would be less apparent.
After 7 years & 40K+ posts, banned by martin for calling Nalod a 'moron'. Awesome.
KT getting killed by opponents' PFs

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