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4 Possible Paths to move out of mediocrity
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jskinny35
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11/29/2022  3:51 PM
Path 1)
We can make a conscious effort to play the young players exclusively and will likely regress/lose more games. We will draft higher in a loaded draft (eg go from 13-14 to pick 8-9).

Path 2)
We consolidate our players/positions and package several players (with picks) in a trade for a star/leader. We have to give up 2023 picks to do this. Who is that star we can obtain that instantly becomes our best player and leader...Durant, KAT, Booker?

Path 3)
We have a firesale and trade several of the following (RJ, IQ, Toppin, Randle, Rose) - to load up and obtain more draft picks to package for a higher draft position in 2023 draft.

Path 4)
We keep going with no moves and likely finish around 40-42 wins. We draft around 13-14 and also keep Mavs pick in the teens. No trades


- I would go with path 1 or path 3 due to this draft reportedly being a sure thing to land a better player if draft in top 7-8. Believe it's realistic to offer pick 9-10 + 14 + future 1st to get to 4-6. Despite our struggles drafting well in early 1st round - it seems to be our best chance to finally land a star.

Which do you pick and why?

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Nalod
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11/29/2022  4:20 PM
we can see the cards Leon is holding but not whats in his head. That would be proprietary and allow 29 other teams to preempt our moves and make it harder to trade.
That said doing nothing is doing something. Outside of the bubble team of 4th seed we have improved. But its not much to write home about.
Me? Im not giving up on RJ. ITs looks bleek but he is 22. Plenty of other players are inefficient and stars. He tightens up his jumper he is golden.

As for his play, or any other I doubt he defies his coach. The common thought is he care about his avg and keeps shooting? Or "randle is stubborn and ......." Nope. They are playing what coach want him to.
Are they executing well? No.

Team shooting started good and got bad. We are last. Path to a star is not easy. Tell me what Leon is thinking? He passed on DM.
Read a blog thing suggesting Warriors trade for Drose and Reddish for Wiseman and Kuminga to "win now".
Sure, they wn a chip but imagine if those two on the knicks we'd be killing ourselves with impatience. Now, Im ok with a deal like that. In fact its seems like a steal. But they are trying to win now and build for the future!
Wiseman has not played a lot of ball since highschool. Kuminga is raw. I do that deal and let them play.
Pieces matter but didn't we all think Brunson would be good and bring out the better in others? Randle has less touches but he is playing better this year. not RJ. Not EF.
We tend to think plug and play is the answer. Its not. But I don't have a better idea.

MaTT4281
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11/29/2022  4:27 PM
What is this nonsense bandwagon on trading IQ for picks all of a sudden?

"Don't worry, we'll be patient with the next one".

Chandler
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11/29/2022  4:30 PM

option 4 doesn't have to lead to mediocrity even if that looks like the case at the moment

wasn't that long ago when IQ was dazzling. Then Obi started hitting 3s like Steph until he wasn't and was also getting his shot blocked like guards, then Grimes was looking like a sniper until he wasn't, and Cam was looking like a bust until he wasn't

right now we're in a rut and playing inconsistently and RJ in particular is playing poorly

there was a time when Jaylen Brown was not playing well for Celts and Tatum was one-dimensional -- until they weren't


the point i'm trying to make is we have young guys who are ascending but with higher highs and higher lows, it's not straight line progress. 2 or 3 of these guys get their act together on a consistent basis and we'll be much happier

(5)(5)
martin
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11/29/2022  6:46 PM
jskinny35 wrote:Path 1)
We can make a conscious effort to play the young players exclusively and will likely regress/lose more games. We will draft higher in a loaded draft (eg go from 13-14 to pick 8-9).

The Knicks are just about doing this already.

Randle is averaging 33 minutes and Rose about 15. Fournier has been sat.

The rest of the Knicks minutes are going to young players exclusively, and it’s a conscious effort to play that way.

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Philc1
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11/29/2022  7:18 PM
Continue to draft well. Rome wasn’t built in a day
jskinny35
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11/29/2022  7:47 PM
martin wrote:
jskinny35 wrote:Path 1)
We can make a conscious effort to play the young players exclusively and will likely regress/lose more games. We will draft higher in a loaded draft (eg go from 13-14 to pick 8-9).

The Knicks are just about doing this already.

Randle is averaging 33 minutes and Rose about 15. Fournier has been sat.

The rest of the Knicks minutes are going to young players exclusively, and it’s a conscious effort to play that way.

I see that - but why not go "all in" and really accelerate down a specific path? If we sit or trade Randle and RJ we would likely regress but gain long-term. Giving those two less minutes would offer more for our younger players that we are still evaluating and trying to decide on (eg Cam, Grimes, Obi, IQ, Simms). I know Cam is playing but I'm thinking mostly of Grimes and Toppin playing uptempo without Randle and RJ so much. No more ISO ball - increase ball movement and game pace. If anything - maybe CAM proves more efficient when iso is needed. I think RJ could probably return and join this group but he's slumping anyway - why not give Grimes most of his minutes. He'd help defensively next to Brunson, may find his outside shot if the ball is moving more, etc

And instead of landing a 12-14 pick - we could have the evaluation needed for the younger players and possibly land the 7-9th pick in this years draft. Historically we haven't drafted well early so climbing higher would decrease the chance we would screw it up once again. If we want to lose more we should prob find minutes for Fournier and maybe someone will bite at the deadline. Might as well see what Toppin gives us with 25-30 minutes so we can finally either move him or find a role for him. Otherwise we'll see flashes and end the season where we were last season - unsure of what to do with them because they never fully auditioned for an increased role.

Brunson, Grimes, Cam, Obi, Sims starting with 7-9 pick
vs
Brunson, RJ, Cam, Randle, Mitch starting with 12-14 pick

Either way it's not moving the needle much IMO so why not take a chance and go full youth tank?

jskinny35
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11/29/2022  7:51 PM
Philc1 wrote:Continue to draft well. Rome wasn’t built in a day

Our Rome stinks and is still being reconstructed... and we don't generally draft well 5-10.

Where we are headed is less likely to change our trajectory and escape middle ground IMO.

ToddTT
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11/29/2022  7:56 PM
What about lowering our expectations?

We’ll never be disappointed!

jskinny35
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11/29/2022  7:57 PM
Chandler wrote:
option 4 doesn't have to lead to mediocrity even if that looks like the case at the moment

wasn't that long ago when IQ was dazzling. Then Obi started hitting 3s like Steph until he wasn't and was also getting his shot blocked like guards, then Grimes was looking like a sniper until he wasn't, and Cam was looking like a bust until he wasn't

right now we're in a rut and playing inconsistently and RJ in particular is playing poorly

there was a time when Jaylen Brown was not playing well for Celts and Tatum was one-dimensional -- until they weren't


the point i'm trying to make is we have young guys who are ascending but with higher highs and higher lows, it's not straight line progress. 2 or 3 of these guys get their act together on a consistent basis and we'll be much happier

Agree about the highs and lows but unless they have more room to audition for bigger roles and develop - they will stay likely remain inconsistent. Happy they are giving Cam a chance to try to figure it out. Maybe we can give Grimes and Obi more minutes and not just trying to fit in around Randle (and RJ). For me - we've seen enough that running the offense through those two has a low ceiling.

The difference between Tatum and Brown was they played both sides so even when they had a poor shooting night - they could still impact the game more positively (vs RJ and Randle). I just don't see IQ or Toppin progressing much in the current roles they play for us. And maybe they're not good enough to be anything but a spark off the bench - but after 3 seasons it would be great to make some type of conclusion before they have to re-up or move on.

jskinny35
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11/29/2022  8:06 PM
Nalod wrote:we can see the cards Leon is holding but not whats in his head. That would be proprietary and allow 29 other teams to preempt our moves and make it harder to trade.
That said doing nothing is doing something. Outside of the bubble team of 4th seed we have improved. But its not much to write home about.
Me? Im not giving up on RJ. ITs looks bleek but he is 22. Plenty of other players are inefficient and stars. He tightens up his jumper he is golden.

As for his play, or any other I doubt he defies his coach. The common thought is he care about his avg and keeps shooting? Or "randle is stubborn and ......." Nope. They are playing what coach want him to.
Are they executing well? No.

Team shooting started good and got bad. We are last. Path to a star is not easy. Tell me what Leon is thinking? He passed on DM.
Read a blog thing suggesting Warriors trade for Drose and Reddish for Wiseman and Kuminga to "win now".
Sure, they wn a chip but imagine if those two on the knicks we'd be killing ourselves with impatience. Now, Im ok with a deal like that. In fact its seems like a steal. But they are trying to win now and build for the future!
Wiseman has not played a lot of ball since highschool. Kuminga is raw. I do that deal and let them play.
Pieces matter but didn't we all think Brunson would be good and bring out the better in others? Randle has less touches but he is playing better this year. not RJ. Not EF.
We tend to think plug and play is the answer. Its not. But I don't have a better idea.

I think Leon wanted DM badly but I support that he didn't trade because the cost was just too much. DM looks great now but in addition to the small backcourt and limited defense - it's very risky to put all your players/picks in one basket when one injury could wreck the franchise for years. Had we traded everyone and picks and DM suffered an injury - we'd be set back several years. I don't know who the next star that will be available will be (KAT, Booker) - but I'd much prefer we try to land on via the upcoming draft. If we could regress a bit and land at pick 8-9 - package that with the Dallas pick and a future 1st - pretty sure that could land us in the territory where even our organization couldn't draft a dud. And we'd still have so many picks and a much younger potential star/leader.

Would absolutely trade for a Kuminga and Wiseman as it's a clear path where we would need to temper our expectations. Maybe those two pan out or they don't - but you can see a level of talent/athleticism that is not on our team so there is a higher potential ceiling. Randle is playing better this season but we should know by now that he is more of a complementary player and still iso's way too much. He has low trade value for this reason but we continue to sign players, watch their values drop - and then try to play them more to up their values to eventually move them (eg Fournier).

Jmpasq
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11/29/2022  8:08 PM
Nalod wrote:we can see the cards Leon is holding but not whats in his head. That would be proprietary and allow 29 other teams to preempt our moves and make it harder to trade.
That said doing nothing is doing something. Outside of the bubble team of 4th seed we have improved. But its not much to write home about.
Me? Im not giving up on RJ. ITs looks bleek but he is 22. Plenty of other players are inefficient and stars. He tightens up his jumper he is golden.

As for his play, or any other I doubt he defies his coach. The common thought is he care about his avg and keeps shooting? Or "randle is stubborn and ......." Nope. They are playing what coach want him to.
Are they executing well? No.

Team shooting started good and got bad. We are last. Path to a star is not easy. Tell me what Leon is thinking? He passed on DM.
Read a blog thing suggesting Warriors trade for Drose and Reddish for Wiseman and Kuminga to "win now".
Sure, they wn a chip but imagine if those two on the knicks we'd be killing ourselves with impatience. Now, Im ok with a deal like that. In fact its seems like a steal. But they are trying to win now and build for the future!
Wiseman has not played a lot of ball since highschool. Kuminga is raw. I do that deal and let them play.
Pieces matter but didn't we all think Brunson would be good and bring out the better in others? Randle has less touches but he is playing better this year. not RJ. Not EF.
We tend to think plug and play is the answer. Its not. But I don't have a better idea.

The team is better, but the problem is everyone around the Knicks got better too. The East got a lot deeper the last 2 years. RJ is the player that scares me the most. He looks awful this year. I don't understand the shooting regression. He shot 40% from 3 2 years ago and now he is the most inefficient shooter in the league. What the hell happened? All I know is watching the team is depressing. When I was a kid the team was competitive every year. We never won, but they were in the conversation every year. One of these years you would think we would fall into a star player by accident.

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Philc1
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11/29/2022  8:10 PM
jskinny35 wrote:
Philc1 wrote:Continue to draft well. Rome wasn’t built in a day

Our Rome stinks and is still being reconstructed... and we don't generally draft well 5-10.

Where we are headed is less likely to change our trajectory and escape middle ground IMO.

2 years ago we were the worst team in the nba. We’re .500 now. The only teams that become championship contenders overnight are the lakers when they get their obligatory superstars demanding a trade to there from Podunkville every 5 years or you get a generational draft pick like Ja or Curry and we were one pick away for both

wargames
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11/29/2022  8:13 PM
Chandler wrote:
option 4 doesn't have to lead to mediocrity even if that looks like the case at the moment

wasn't that long ago when IQ was dazzling. Then Obi started hitting 3s like Steph until he wasn't and was also getting his shot blocked like guards, then Grimes was looking like a sniper until he wasn't, and Cam was looking like a bust until he wasn't

right now we're in a rut and playing inconsistently and RJ in particular is playing poorly

there was a time when Jaylen Brown was not playing well for Celts and Tatum was one-dimensional -- until they weren't


the point i'm trying to make is we have young guys who are ascending but with higher highs and higher lows, it's not straight line progress. 2 or 3 of these guys get their act together on a consistent basis and we'll be much happier

Basically this. I still prefer this rut they’re in to a capped out, asset-less 5th seed at best team. I worry about Randle and Fournier, but the majority of this team is young. Randle and Fournier being here is not a long term issue unless the knicks do something stupid.

The algorithm gives and the algorithm takes away
jskinny35
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11/29/2022  8:27 PM
Philc1 wrote:
jskinny35 wrote:
Philc1 wrote:Continue to draft well. Rome wasn’t built in a day

Our Rome stinks and is still being reconstructed... and we don't generally draft well 5-10.

Where we are headed is less likely to change our trajectory and escape middle ground IMO.

2 years ago we were the worst team in the nba. We’re .500 now. The only teams that become championship contenders overnight are the lakers when they get their obligatory superstars demanding a trade to there from Podunkville every 5 years or you get a generational draft pick like Ja or Curry and we were one pick away for both

Not looking to become great overnight - just trying to set us up with more potential. Would be happy to draft a player with greater potential (which would take 3 more years) vs trading for a 28-32 All-Star. Believe we have a lot of very good/complementary players on the roster - but would have to trade most of them to upgrade to land that star/leader. And remember we were 1 pick away many times - and some of that was bad luck and some of that was we didn't know how to tank well.

martin
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11/29/2022  8:30 PM
jskinny35 wrote:
martin wrote:
jskinny35 wrote:Path 1)
We can make a conscious effort to play the young players exclusively and will likely regress/lose more games. We will draft higher in a loaded draft (eg go from 13-14 to pick 8-9).

The Knicks are just about doing this already.

Randle is averaging 33 minutes and Rose about 15. Fournier has been sat.

The rest of the Knicks minutes are going to young players exclusively, and it’s a conscious effort to play that way.

I see that - but why not go "all in" and really accelerate down a specific path? If we sit or trade Randle and RJ we would likely regress but gain long-term. Giving those two less minutes would offer more for our younger players that we are still evaluating and trying to decide on (eg Cam, Grimes, Obi, IQ, Simms). I know Cam is playing but I'm thinking mostly of Grimes and Toppin playing uptempo without Randle and RJ so much. No more ISO ball - increase ball movement and game pace. If anything - maybe CAM proves more efficient when iso is needed. I think RJ could probably return and join this group but he's slumping anyway - why not give Grimes most of his minutes. He'd help defensively next to Brunson, may find his outside shot if the ball is moving more, etc

And instead of landing a 12-14 pick - we could have the evaluation needed for the younger players and possibly land the 7-9th pick in this years draft. Historically we haven't drafted well early so climbing higher would decrease the chance we would screw it up once again. If we want to lose more we should prob find minutes for Fournier and maybe someone will bite at the deadline. Might as well see what Toppin gives us with 25-30 minutes so we can finally either move him or find a role for him. Otherwise we'll see flashes and end the season where we were last season - unsure of what to do with them because they never fully auditioned for an increased role.

Brunson, Grimes, Cam, Obi, Sims starting with 7-9 pick
vs
Brunson, RJ, Cam, Randle, Mitch starting with 12-14 pick

Either way it's not moving the needle much IMO so why not take a chance and go full youth tank?

That’s just not reality. You can sit guys like Fournier and Kemba.

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Nalod
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11/29/2022  8:43 PM
RJ is a younger player. Keels, then Grimes, RJ and Deuce within a few weeks of each other.
Think he hit his ceiling ?
Knixkik
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11/29/2022  9:23 PM
martin wrote:
jskinny35 wrote:Path 1)
We can make a conscious effort to play the young players exclusively and will likely regress/lose more games. We will draft higher in a loaded draft (eg go from 13-14 to pick 8-9).

The Knicks are just about doing this already.

Randle is averaging 33 minutes and Rose about 15. Fournier has been sat.

The rest of the Knicks minutes are going to young players exclusively, and it’s a conscious effort to play that way.

Agreed. We are playing the young guys. Consolation is the eventual goal.

Kemet
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11/29/2022  11:42 PM
Knixkik wrote:
martin wrote:
jskinny35 wrote:Path 1)
We can make a conscious effort to play the young players exclusively and will likely regress/lose more games. We will draft higher in a loaded draft (eg go from 13-14 to pick 8-9).

The Knicks are just about doing this already.

Randle is averaging 33 minutes and Rose about 15. Fournier has been sat.

The rest of the Knicks minutes are going to young players exclusively, and it’s a conscious effort to play that way.

Agreed. We are playing the young guys. Consolation is the eventual goal.


The Knicks roster young and old the talent's are there .. their just missing a coach.
The Knicks players has the individual talent on the team to beat under .500 teams.
It may be funny .. but after 20 games, all the NBA teams above .500 are being coached well, all has showed to have late game strategies to win games, other than shooting consecutive 3's.

SergioNYK
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11/30/2022  9:36 AM
It's kind of simple (well, not really) to me. Draft well first and foremost. Wherever you end up. Giannis was the 15th pick and Jokic was the 41st pick. You do not need to necessarily tank unless it's for a generational talent but then again, you will still have a 86% chance you will NOT end up with your guy. And then you invest as many resources as possible into scouting and player development. Followed by smart reasonable trades and no, trading unprotected picks 5 years from now for Spida wasn't it.

We are not Isiah's Knicks where it's hopeless. We have some nice young pieces, tradeable contracts and tons of draft picks. We don't have to be stuck in mediocrity forever.

4 Possible Paths to move out of mediocrity

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