Btw, The Athletic is a superb publication and worth every penny. I often find myself reading stories about teams, topics and peoples I was never very interested in because I’ve come to really enjoy a particular author.
“Ten Knicks storylines to watch during the 2021-2022 NBA Season
By Fred Katz, The Athletic
Only one day to go until New York Knicks basketball returns.
The Knicks open up the season Wednesday against the Boston Celtics at Madison Square Garden. Here are 10 storylines I’m excited to follow once the games begin to matter.
Will the Knicks change their offense?
The Knicks finished the preseason averaging 41 3-point attempts per game, sixth in the NBA; 43.6 percent of their shots came from beyond the arc, which would have been sixth in the league during the regular season.
They promised they would shoot 3s. So far, they have. But can they do it for 82 games?
The Knicks barely took barely any deep balls last season, relative to the rest of the league. Only 35 percent of their shots came from range, 24th in the NBA. Head coach Tom Thibodeau, meanwhile, has never led a team to the top half of the league in 3-point attempt rate.
“So much of what you do is based on the personnel that you have,” Thibodeau said. “I think it’s important to understand the value of shots. … Whatever the strengths of your team, you want to take advantage of that. The game has changed so that there has been a lot more of a premium put on shooting. I think the biggest thing is understanding the value of shots and we’re trying to get there. And I think the more shooting we have, the better it is for us.”
Can they get Obi Toppin more playing time?
During the exhibition finale, Thibodeau showed off one way the 2020 lottery pick can earn more than his usual 10 to 12 minutes. Could the Knicks go to an Obi Toppin-Julius Randle frontcourt more?
Thibodeau has always been hesitant to play the two together, considering the inevitable defensive problems. The Knicks coach puts a strong emphasis on rim protection, making him prone to go with Nerlens Noel, Mitchell Robinson or even Taj Gibson at center. He played Toppin and Randle together for a total of 39 minutes during all of last season, yet paired them for the final 6:54 of the Knicks’ comeback victory against the Wizards, which closed the preseason.
And it worked. The Knicks scored 29 points in less than seven minutes to seal a victory and a perfect 4-0 record in exhibitions.
But let’s ignore the statistics, which came when a group of Knicks (mostly) first-stringers beat down Washington’s backups. Instead, let’s analyze the process.
The Knicks forced the Wizards to adjust, not the other way around.
Washington started a wing, Deni Avdija, on Randle, who facilitated from the top of the key play after play. The strategy left Wizards center Daniel Gafford off the ball, still hanging as a deterrent in help defense. But Randle was too strong for Avdija, and Gafford was too far from the rim guarding shooters.
Shortly into the stretch, the Wizards adjusted. Gafford manned Randle until the end of the game. If Thibodeau were to come around on a Randle-Toppin frontcourt, reactions like this could ultimately be a reason why. Think about it like this: If Thibodeau is hesitant to play Toppin and Randle together because of rim protection problems, then he must feel good about the inverse, the way pairing them together can potentially ruin the opponent’s rim protection.
Gafford is a talented defender who can block shots and switch onto the perimeter, but sticking him on Randle meant removing him from the paint, where he’s most valuable. He is a menace down low. But thanks to this lineup, he wasn’t there anymore. Randle is quick enough to get by most any center. He’s skilled enough to put them in actions to make them even more uncomfortable (more on this in a bit).
The small group scrambled well defensively during the massive run to close the Wizards game. It switched everything. It forced steals. Toppin even blocked a couple of shots. It got out running and found 3s on the fast break. One way to make up for missing rim protection is to play stout guards so that ballhandlers or cutters can’t frolic into the paint. Maybe that’s why Thibodeau used Derrick Rose and Quentin Grimes with this group, instead of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier.
Either way, this frontcourt is something to play with when the Knicks need a burst of points or just want to play Toppin more. Keep in mind that this configuration allows Toppin to roll to the hoop more, too.
The Knicks can’t start games with Toppin and Randle together. No way. That’s when teams would poke holes in the defense; plus, it’s too exhausting for Randle to guard fives for long stretches. But it could be a weapon Thibodeau goes back to in select moments.
RJ Barrett looked good in preseason, but how good is he?
I’ve written about Barrett’s progression a few times during training camp, so let’s turn the conversation to someone else.
I called a non-Knicks, pro personnel scout and asked him this question. Here is what he said:
“I think he’s looked a lot better, just from the standpoint of playing with the ball in his hands. He’s making much quicker decisions and not being as hesitant. He comes off screens tight. He knows how to use his body to his advantage getting downhill. You saw a couple of sequences in the preseason where he gets downhill either off a screen or off a closeout, gets to the nail, elbow area, and as soon as the defender draws over and helps, he’s making that kick-out pass. In the past, I don’t think he was recognizing that as quickly.
“His shot looks really good. The flying elbow that he’s kinda dealt with in the past, it’s much more tucked in. I think he’s a pretty solid defender. I don’t think he’s a shutdown corner type of defender, but in terms of giving you effort, giving you physicality, knowing how to use a screen to be impactful, he’s pretty good on that end of the floor.”
The Knicks are counting on RJ Barrett to contribute on offense and defense. (Steven Ryan / Getty Images)
What might a hypothetical extension look like for Barrett?
The Knicks have picked up Barrett’s fourth-year option, along with third-year rookie options for Immanuel Quickley and Toppin, league sources told The Athletic on Monday, which means we’re approaching every salary-cap nerd’s favorite activity: extension watch.
Barrett is eligible for a rookie-scale extension after 2021-22, and if he makes massive strides, as he did last season, the offer can’t be cheap.
The Knicks have gone so long without signing one of their first-round picks to a second contract that Barrett was not even born yet the last time it happened. Kristaps Porzingis once seemed bound to break the streak that’s been going on since 1994 first-rounder Charlie Ward re-signed. Now, Barrett is the next great hope.
But how much could it cost? Let’s ask the same anonymous scout.
“I don’t think he’s a max player but I think if the improvements that he’s made carry over to the regular season and he stays healthy and the Knicks have another strong season, it wouldn’t be outrageous for his agent to ask for a max rookie contract extension,” the scout said. “If he can get over 20 points and bump up his assist numbers a little bit and keep improving as a decision-maker. Is he a max player? Probably not, but there are a lot of guys who get max deals who aren’t max players. So, I think he’s made a lot of positive strides.”
What does Julius Randle add to his game?
Last season, it was the jump shot. He bumped his 3-point accuracy 13-percentage points while chucking more triples than ever. Midrange proficiency grew, too. He became a more willing and voluminous passer. For stretches, he was the Knicks’ entire offense. Does that continue at the same level this season?
But the way the Knicks relied on Randle also hurt him. His isolations were too predictable. He admitted at the start of this season that he “overcomplicated” the game during the first-round playoff exit against Atlanta. When teams start to swarm him the way the Hawks did, something he may not even see until the postseason, how does he react?
Is the East as good as we all think?
We, the basketball community, have declared with an exclamation point that the Eastern Conference is back for three years now, but we’ve never done it with more verve than in the lead-up to this season.
The Eastern Conference is back!
The Nuggets and Clippers are dealing with injuries to stars in the West. The Jazz are elite with a question mark. The Lakers are chiseling round pegs into square holes. And meanwhile, the East has the defending champs; a team in Brooklyn that still might be the favorite, even without Kyrie Irving; a strong secondary group with the Hawks, Heat, Celtics and 76ers; possibly improved play-in teams with the Pacers, who will hopefully be healthier; the Bulls added some key players and were perfect in the preseason.
So, where do the Knicks fit into all of this? It’s difficult to see a .569 winning percentage taking anyone to fourth place, as it did last season. Could they fall back? If so, how far?
Or will the Pacers deal with injury issues again? Are LaMelo Ball’s Hornets not ready to make a leap yet? Will the Sixers falter amidst all the Ben Simmons drama? Will the Celtics’ lack of shooting bite them? Will the Wizards struggle without Russell Westbrook? And will the Knicks’ depth and defensive know-how lift them out of the Play-In Tournament once again?
Will we see more pick-and-rolls where Barrett screens for Randle?
OK, this one is only sort of a storyline. Actually, it’s not a storyline at all — just a tidbit I want to address.
Randle and Barrett can run pick-and-rolls with Barrett as the screener and Randle as the ballhandler. It’s happened before, but not much, only 22 times last season, according to information tracked by Second Spectrum and supplied to The Athletic.
Why not bust it out more, get a little quirky?
“A lot of bigs in the league don’t know how to guard pick-and-roll when (their) man is handling the ball, so it creates a lot of confusion,” Randle said. “It’s just a lot of opportunities where I can create shots for my teammates or get in the paint and make things happen.”
Randle seems to like it. So, go crazy.
This comes back to the Knicks going small, too. Barrett has fewer options as a screen-setter if a big man, no matter if it’s Robinson or Noel, is parked in the lane while he’s screening for Randle up top. Sure, he can roll, but there will already be a defender in the paint ready to meet him. But what if the Knicks run smaller lineups just a tad more, placing Randle at the five, spreading the floor around him and allowing their best playmaker to go to town?
In that case, Barrett can roll to the rim. He can pop to the 3-point line. He can short roll and find shooters or cutters. The duo can force a switch for one of them to exploit or maybe Randle can pound downhill. And all of this occurs while, as Randle mentions, a big man is defending the front end of a pick-and-roll and a guard defending the back end. No one is comfortable — and what is good offense if not forcing a defense into uncomfortable positions and difficult decisions?
The Knicks have depth, which can be a great tool when a team needs to adjust, but it can also be a weapon to force opponents to change from what they want to do. These unconventional actions are fun. There’s no way the Knicks rely on them. But maybe they can bust them out when they’re feeling frisky.
What’s the skinny with Kemba Walker?
Walker doesn’t have to return to All-Star form to make his presence worthwhile. The Knicks signed him to a two-year, $18 million contract after the Thunder bought him out. Even if he’s just, say, a top-17 point guard, that’s one of the more team-friendly guard signings of the offseason.
But working Walker into the system won’t be seamless.
Small point guards can fall off fast when they lose just a smidgen of their quickness. (Isaiah Thomas is the most extreme recent example of this.) If that happens to Walker, who was hampered with a knee injury last season, how might that affect his ability to create space? Or run the offense? Or guard other point guards?
The Knicks needed a pick-and-roll element, and Walker unquestionably gives them one. He’s a low-risk, high-reward addition. But after only three preseason games played, it’s not clear what type of season he will churn out.
Can Quentin Grimes or Miles McBride help down the road?
This one is simple. Grimes, who the Knicks chose No. 25 in July’s NBA Draft, showed his first flash during the comeback against the Wizards. He was feisty on defense, put up 3s and attacked when appropriate.
That’s one moment. In the preseason. But how about when it matters? Can he, at some point, become a helpful rotation player?
The team is too deep and the two rookies were drafted too late for anyone to expect consistent rotation minutes for either. McBride went No. 36. But can at least one of them have enough moments to make the Knicks think they hit on another late draft pick?
What will rotations look like when everyone is healthy?
The Knicks have a problem any team would love to have. There is a world where guys who seem due for significant minutes don’t play much or fall out of the rotation altogether.
When everyone is healthy, Thibodeau can run an almost one-for-one pattern. Walker and Rose split 48 minutes at point guard. Fournier and Quickley do the same at the two; Barrett and Alec Burks at the three; Randle and Toppin at the four; and Robinson and Noel at the five.
If Randle and Barrett play 36-plus minutes a night once again, what does that mean for Toppin and Burks? Do the minutes squeeze down to 12 for at least one of them?
Of course, everyone won’t be healthy. Rose and Walker have injury histories, and players will get banged up throughout the season. Still, how does employing all of these guys affect Taj Gibson? Or Grimes, who Thibodeau has spoken about fondly all training camp?
Someone near the bottom of the rotation will have a better-than-expected season and another will disappoint. Such is the way of the NBA.
It will be fascinating to see how Thibodeau handles it all”
10/20/2021 1:49 PM
