I think the Knicks will package the picks and move up. I do not see the team allocating four roster spots to rookies, nor do I see them spending cap space on four rookies. Based on this site they could package 19+21 and move up to 8. I don't see Orlando making that trade, but I could see Sacramento which would get us a talented wing

SupremeCommander wrote:no, I do not

I think the Knicks will package the picks and move up. I do not see the team allocating four roster spots to rookies, nor do I see them spending cap space on four rookies. Based on this site they could package 19+21 and move up to 8. I don't see Orlando making that trade, but I could see Sacramento which would get us a talented wing

19+21 does not get you to the 8th overall pick.

Pelton's a stathead and his trade value chart only could be formulated by removing all practical context. ( pan out rate, tier gaps, individual job security situation of the GM in place, only using outlier trades like Fultz/Tatum as test cases, etc ,etc)

Randle (rental risk/regression risk), MRob (rental risk/injury risk), 19, 21, 32 and 5 million in cash from the annual allotment gets you to 8. Barely.

Why wouldn't the Knicks use all four picks? ( Top three immediately to the team, 58 as a draft and stash, then surfing the UDFA market) They have a lot of guys on previous one year deals, actual key contributors, that are UFAs. Toppin disappointed. Knox is a bust. Frank N is on his way out the door. It's not like the roster doesn't have room for more talent. If the Knicks feel like they can get quality prospects at 19/21/32, then why not draft in those positions and get them on the roster?

Mirror Test it. If the Knicks had 8th overall, would you want them to trade it for 19 and 21? Anyone who made that trade would get fired. In real life, not on some trade chart, if the trade in question is completely indefensible to your local sports media, it will tend not to happen. The last thing a GM wants is the local media demanding his head on a pike and to be immediately fired. The Portland GM is on borrowed time. See how quickly he went from somewhat stable to on the chopping block.

why would a prospect do anything other than try and get drafted as high as possible? i can see them sometimes perhaps hoping not to get drafted by some sh!t organization (like Clippers of yesteryear) but who in their right mind would say yes I'll blow off interviews etc. because i'd rather be picked by you. Take this guy for example. Say we made some promise; is he really going to blow off earlier teams? to make less money by getting drafted later? and hope we keep our promise?

anyway, not saying this doesn't happen because frankly i don't know -- the logic does escape me though and wonder if this is just an urban legend type of thing

BRIGGS wrote:They have 3 high picks that may have covered his range— offering 19 wouod be sweet position fo him. Kind of fits what the Knicks need a plug and play 2 guard

Duarte, in theory, could fall to 32. Very likely? No. But there's a more than narrow chance. His age will terrify some front offices and guys like Brown and Bassey will likely invade the mid to late 20s section.

Put it this way, the troubling scenario is that Franz Wagner falls to 19 and the Knicks take him. Or Kispert. I can see both staging a freefall. I wouldn't want either of those two guys. I'm not going to mince it, the league in general is leery of non black players. There is no practical reason why Doncic fell and was traded other than his pigment. The pan out rate is quite horrible, even on top of the typical tragic pan out rate in general for draft picks.

It works on two levels. Odds are, you are better off not drafting a white guy. That's just statistical reality to NBA draft history. ( I wouldn't touch Wagner nor Kispert with a 100 foot pole) On the other end, the NBA is one of the most racist, bigoted and xenophobic places in all of professional sports. I spent the last half year knee deep in about a thousand prospects, interviewing and watching media on tons of them and reading deep hard vetted background reports. The level of vitriol by a staggering number of young black American male athletes at anyone else who is not a fellow young black American male athlete is openly shocking.

Draft "promises" are generally built around a franchise's relationship with said prospect's agent or representation agency. It's a good narrative but it rarely works the way it's discussed in the open press. Working out and visiting each team is not a great overall draft strategy by an agent for his prospect. Agents will avoid certain teams because those agents have a poor relationship with that franchise ( it happens quite a bit) or they want to avoid certain coaches because they know said coaches will push their prospects into showing more of their flaws and then that becomes the new narrative on the player. It matters more in cases like Josh Huestis ( money) or 2nd rounders ( negotiating guaranteed money when none is required) than for where the Knicks are drafting and their situation.

TripleThreat wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:They have 3 high picks that may have covered his range— offering 19 wouod be sweet position fo him. Kind of fits what the Knicks need a plug and play 2 guard

Duarte, in theory, could fall to 32. Very likely? No. But there's a more than narrow chance. His age will terrify some front offices and guys like Brown and Bassey will likely invade the mid to late 20s section.

Put it this way, the troubling scenario is that Franz Wagner falls to 19 and the Knicks take him. Or Kispert. I can see both staging a freefall. I wouldn't want either of those two guys. I'm not going to mince it, the league in general is leery of non black players. There is no practical reason why Doncic fell and was traded other than his pigment. The pan out rate is quite horrible, even on top of the typical tragic pan out rate in general for draft picks.

It works on two levels. Odds are, you are better off not drafting a white guy. That's just statistical reality to NBA draft history. ( I wouldn't touch Wagner nor Kispert with a 100 foot pole) On the other end, the NBA is one of the most racist, bigoted and xenophobic places in all of professional sports. I spent the last half year knee deep in about a thousand prospects, interviewing and watching media on tons of them and reading deep hard vetted background reports. The level of vitriol by a staggering number of young black American male athletes at anyone else who is not a fellow young black American male athlete is openly shocking.

Draft "promises" are generally built around a franchise's relationship with said prospect's agent or representation agency. It's a good narrative but it rarely works the way it's discussed in the open press. Working out and visiting each team is not a great overall draft strategy by an agent for his prospect. Agents will avoid certain teams because those agents have a poor relationship with that franchise ( it happens quite a bit) or they want to avoid certain coaches because they know said coaches will push their prospects into showing more of their flaws and then that becomes the new narrative on the player. It matters more in cases like Josh Huestis ( money) or 2nd rounders ( negotiating guaranteed money when none is required) than for where the Knicks are drafting and their situation.

Insightful

TripleThreat wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:They have 3 high picks that may have covered his range— offering 19 wouod be sweet position fo him. Kind of fits what the Knicks need a plug and play 2 guard

Duarte, in theory, could fall to 32. Very likely? No. But there's a more than narrow chance. His age will terrify some front offices and guys like Brown and Bassey will likely invade the mid to late 20s section.

Put it this way, the troubling scenario is that Franz Wagner falls to 19 and the Knicks take him. Or Kispert. I can see both staging a freefall. I wouldn't want either of those two guys. I'm not going to mince it, the league in general is leery of non black players. There is no practical reason why Doncic fell and was traded other than his pigment. The pan out rate is quite horrible, even on top of the typical tragic pan out rate in general for draft picks.

It works on two levels. Odds are, you are better off not drafting a white guy. That's just statistical reality to NBA draft history. ( I wouldn't touch Wagner nor Kispert with a 100 foot pole) On the other end, the NBA is one of the most racist, bigoted and xenophobic places in all of professional sports. I spent the last half year knee deep in about a thousand prospects, interviewing and watching media on tons of them and reading deep hard vetted background reports. The level of vitriol by a staggering number of young black American male athletes at anyone else who is not a fellow young black American male athlete is openly shocking.

Draft "promises" are generally built around a franchise's relationship with said prospect's agent or representation agency. It's a good narrative but it rarely works the way it's discussed in the open press. Working out and visiting each team is not a great overall draft strategy by an agent for his prospect. Agents will avoid certain teams because those agents have a poor relationship with that franchise ( it happens quite a bit) or they want to avoid certain coaches because they know said coaches will push their prospects into showing more of their flaws and then that becomes the new narrative on the player. It matters more in cases like Josh Huestis ( money) or 2nd rounders ( negotiating guaranteed money when none is required) than for where the Knicks are drafting and their situation.

Triple threat always the most entertaining writer on basketball that I know of. I used to think tgis guy must be charlie rozen. I agree with you on krispert and Wagner by the way but In fairness I could care less what color anyone is if I feel they can ball. I’m probably the only pre draft Jeremy Lin lover on the internet.

I’m sticking with Duarte —- I hope the Knicks promised him and if I was higher in draft wouod still take him up to about 10 or so. Perfect fit for this team. I also think Jericho sims is a perfect fit and I’m willing if necessary to either move 21 back or 32 up to get him. Name one other basketball player who is over 250 pounds with a 40 inch vertical who turned out bad— quick answer. None. I was hot on bassey abd I still like him— he’s more skilled than sims but I always like the bigger player. He’s bigger more athletic and has no injury history. He’s a thins player right away with untapped potential. He’s drastically undervalued and will certainly be a first rd talent when all is said abd done. He’s still raw offensively but a good raw. But this will get high value from the D. So I’m strong Duarte strong sims and I’m still on prcakin as a euro stash. Grabbing a quality back up c and a 2 guard who can ball with a nice euro prospect is a good draft.

I like the kid from Iowa to wiskekoff(sp)for 58 or feron hunt.

Ps. I have cooper on my thinking waves for pick 21. I’m not married to prcakin although I like him. Cooper if he’s really 6-1 might make more sense for da knicks

They could be looking for a upgrade to Grayson Allen. Allen is just ok, but he’s not far from getting paid either.

BRIGGS wrote:
I’m sticking with Duarte —- I hope the Knicks promised him and if I was higher in draft wouod still take him up to about 10 or so.

The trick ( and complication ) of trading up or down across a large section of draft slots is practical trades usually only happen against the next tier.

For example, if the Knicks had the 10th overall, trading back to 25th overall, where Duarte might fall, is really difficult. The Knicks have to justify this move and it's hard to do that, moving back 15 slots. Also the team moving up has to trade volume, and most teams don't have that kind of volume to surrender and still build a functional team.

Thus what makes practical sense, but is hard to do is

1) Trade 10th for the 15th plus some other assets
2) Trade 15th for the 20th plus some other assets
3) Trade the 20th for the 25th plus some other assets

It's easier to bridge 15 slots with three DIFFERENT teams instead of just one team. But the problem is not that many teams actually want to trade up or down in any given draft. Plenty of teams will talk about it, because it's due diligence, but few will pull the trigger on it.

Think about the massive complexity to set up three "trigger trades" on the same night. This would require three other teams to want to move up but also that the players that they want to fall to them in those new slot. That's an insanely difficult amount of luck, timing and effort. So you need to talk to the GM of the other team, but he has to coordinate with his owner and analytics team and cap guru as an entire front office. You need like 50 people total to be in lock step to make something like this work.

So on Duarte. He might be there at 32. Probably not. If he's not, you grab higher upside guys at 19 and 21. Or if your guys are all off the board by 21, you can try to trade back to 25-28. But again, you need a team willing to do that.

The idea of trading up and down is just random filler pushed by sports writers who have to write something to make a living. It's way more complex than anyone at ESPN is going to talk about. Then again, most of the guys at ESPN are idiots. Actually trading up or down is very rare and very hard.

I like Duarte as a fan of the game. But is he going to be worth that kind of effort and time when the Knicks could focus their energy else where?

There's literally nothing wrong with 19/21/32/58 as constructed. Why do the Knicks "need" to do anything? They can get good players at all those slots.

Knicks picked Knox in part because the front office needed to be smarter than everyone else.

Knicks picked Toppin for who the **** knows why but they got cute when it's perfectly OK to go basic and simple ( get a projectible high floor guy like Vassell)

The Knicks should move on a deal if they are approached with a sweetheart/Godfather offer. By virtue of having lots of cap space, other teams will have to come to them. So let other teams come to them and if they can't find a Godfather offer, then their current situation is still pretty good.