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1st 10 game avgs. for Ariza, Sweets
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bernard
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10/29/2004  8:52 PM
Projected Mins/points/FG%/Rebounds
Ariza: 14/7/41/4
Sweets: 25/10/44/9

Most important stat here is minutes. I'm hoping they're both higher, because that would mean they're playing very well. I know Ariza has a ton to learn, but his rebounding, defense and energy will make him hard to keep out of the rotation, IMO.

By the end of the season, I'm thinking these #'s will be more like:

Ariza: 20/10/45/7
Sweets: 30/12/46/11
AUTOADVERT
Bonn1997
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10/29/2004  9:16 PM
Projected Mins/points/FG%/Rebounds
Ariza: 14/7/41/4
Sweets: 25/10/44/9
I don't think Sweetney's #s will increase that drastically in the first few games of the season from where they were in the pre-season. I think/hope we'll see continuous gradual improvement from him.
timmyTtop
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10/29/2004  11:29 PM
i've been dissapointed in sweetney's offense. He's alittle slow. No elton brand here.
Bonn1997
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10/29/2004  11:33 PM
Posted by timmyTtop:

i've been dissapointed in sweetney's offense. He's alittle slow. No elton brand here.
I definitely don't expect him to develop into the kind of player Brand is. But in an ideal scenario, his development could be similar to Zach Randolph's or Carlos Boozer's.
timmyTtop
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10/29/2004  11:37 PM
he's too slow for randolph. randolph has one of the quickest feets at his size, w/ the exception of garnett. boozer, now that i see, but boozer has developed much quicker than sweetney. sweetney can get the minutes bc his game is good, but his fouls are whats keeping him from getting prime time game.
Rich
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10/29/2004  11:37 PM
If Sweetney could improve his FT%, his scoring average could increase by five point per game.
Bonn1997
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10/29/2004  11:46 PM
Posted by timmyTtop:

he's too slow for randolph. randolph has one of the quickest feets at his size, w/ the exception of garnett. boozer, now that i see, but boozer has developed much quicker than sweetney. sweetney can get the minutes bc his game is good, but his fouls are whats keeping him from getting prime time game.
Yeah Zach has that awesome spin move. Sweetney won't be as fast as Zach, but he's wider than Zach and might become better than Zach at drawing fouls. In an ideal scenario, Sweetney might develop into the next Zach Randolph.

It's hard to tell how much ahead of Sweetney Boozer is because Boozer's gotten so much more playing time. In the 2nd half of last year, I think Sweetney could have averaged the 10/7.5 that Boozer averaged his rookie year if he'd had the same playing time Boozer had. And Boozer as a rookie probably was not very far ahead of Sweetney on defense (though he was a little ahead of him)
newyorknewyork
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10/30/2004  11:53 AM
Bonn the 25 is mins not pts. He expects Sweetney to average 10pts 9rebs. And Ariza 7pts 4rebs in 14mins.
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Bonn1997
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10/30/2004  2:00 PM
Posted by newyorknewyork:

Bonn the 25 is mins not pts. He expects Sweetney to average 10pts 9rebs. And Ariza 7pts 4rebs in 14mins.
Oh thanks! It was just a silly misunderstanding. I thought he meant Sweetney would average 25 PPG!
technomaster
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10/30/2004  4:46 PM
You mean start of slowly, then develop into a killer player? Yeah... I think Sweetney has the potential to do that.

At this point, I think Randolph is at least on the same level as Brand as a player, if not better-- he's super quick on offense, odd when you see the size of his body. Boozer isn't far behind (let's see what he does in Utah)-- clearly not the athlete that Brand is, but effective nonetheless.

I don't see Sweetney becoming more than a mid-teens player in the NBA--- I don't think he has the offensive repertoire to be a 20ppg type guy. But you never know, he might become one of those guys that refs giftwrap free throws to...

Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by timmyTtop:

i've been dissapointed in sweetney's offense. He's alittle slow. No elton brand here.
I definitely don't expect him to develop into the kind of player Brand is. But in an ideal scenario, his development could be similar to Zach Randolph's or Carlos Boozer's.
“That was two, two from the heart.” - John Starks
Bonn1997
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10/30/2004  5:35 PM
Posted by technomaster:

You mean start of slowly, then develop into a killer player? Yeah... I think Sweetney has the potential to do that.

At this point, I think Randolph is at least on the same level as Brand as a player, if not better-- he's super quick on offense, odd when you see the size of his body. Boozer isn't far behind (let's see what he does in Utah)-- clearly not the athlete that Brand is, but effective nonetheless.

I don't see Sweetney becoming more than a mid-teens player in the NBA--- I don't think he has the offensive repertoire to be a 20ppg type guy. But you never know, he might become one of those guys that refs giftwrap free throws to...

Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by timmyTtop:

i've been dissapointed in sweetney's offense. He's alittle slow. No elton brand here.
I definitely don't expect him to develop into the kind of player Brand is. But in an ideal scenario, his development could be similar to Zach Randolph's or Carlos Boozer's.
Zach and Brand are comparable scorers but Brand is a 100 times better on defense. Zach's teammates would complain at times about him giving up too many points. Also Brand is a shot-blocking machine; Zach doesn't block shots.
PhilinLA
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10/30/2004  7:06 PM
I think Sweets can become an 18-20/12 guy. A lot of the fouls that are called on him are a result of people running into his but. As he keeps going to the line, refs will start respecting him and stop calling all those ticky-tacks. He'll get much better with playing time. Guys who get to the line like he does are sooo valuable.
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fishmike
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10/30/2004  7:16 PM
Sweetney is 22 and his body is clearly still developing. He's still got a fair amount of baby fat to lose and muscle to gain. Remember 3 years ago he was almost 300 pounds. He spends a lot of time getting leaner and stronger.
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bernard
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10/30/2004  9:33 PM
I was trying to be modest in my expectations. Key is that even trying to restrain myself, I can't see either of these guys not putting up major rebounding nos. if they get decent burn. Sweets, IMO, will rebound as well or better than most any PF you put him against ... at least in the east, and Ariza matches up even better in rebounding against small forwards. Don't expect either of them to put up lots of points this year ... maybe next. Their rebounding could change this team in ways as significant as having two top ball-handling guards.
bernard
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10/30/2004  9:36 PM
Oh, and Bonn ... can see why there was the confusion. I started their stat line w/ minutes because that was what was foremost in my mind, but, obviously, that's not how stats normally are presented.
bernard
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11/24/2004  9:09 AM
Posted by bernard:

Projected Mins/points/FG%/Rebounds
Ariza: 14/7/41/4
Sweets: 25/10/44/9

Most important stat here is minutes. I'm hoping they're both higher, because that would mean they're playing very well. I know Ariza has a ton to learn, but his rebounding, defense and energy will make him hard to keep out of the rotation, IMO.

By the end of the season, I'm thinking these #'s will be more like:

Ariza: 20/10/45/7
Sweets: 30/12/46/11
Here are the actuals after 10 games:
Ariza: 16 mins, 6 pts/game, 40% FG, 3 rebounds
Sweets: 19 mins, 9 pts/game, 53% FG, 5 rebounds

I thought I was being conservative in my estimates, but I guess I got wrapped up in our hype. Both of these guys faltered a bit on the tough road trip and haven't yet regained their footing/confidence. Most disappointing stats for each of them IMO is rebounds. Think their rebounding numbers will improve, but I'm not sure that Sweets will turn into the rebounding powerhouse I'd hoped. On the plus side, the team as a whole is rebounding very well -- Nazr and KT's rebounding numbers have been phenomenal.
TMS
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11/24/2004  9:51 AM
on the subject of Sweetney & Boozer, there's no way i think they are alike at all...Boozer is 10 times more athletic than Sweetney is, & has an equally hard work ethic, if not better...Boozer also doesn't have any of the weight issues, & is still miles ahead of Sweetney as a rebounder, defender & scorer...

i'd be happy to see Sweetney become a 14/10 player someday...anything more would be a shock to me at this point.
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Bonn1997
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11/24/2004  10:35 AM
The predicted #s were pretty accurate except for Sweetney's rebounding and minutes (which are both lower than predicted).
Panos
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11/24/2004  10:40 AM
Posted by TMS:

on the subject of Sweetney & Boozer, there's no way i think they are alike at all...Boozer is 10 times more athletic than Sweetney is, & has an equally hard work ethic, if not better...Boozer also doesn't have any of the weight issues, & is still miles ahead of Sweetney as a rebounder, defender & scorer...

i'd be happy to see Sweetney become a 14/10 player someday...anything more would be a shock to me at this point.

Once again, TMS, I agree with you. But I'll say, if Sweets could shed 20 pounds, I think you'd see a lot more from him. He surprises me that he can even dunk fairly easily with all that extra weight.
Panos
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11/24/2004  10:48 AM
Let's send him to the "Biggest Loser" show!
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1st 10 game avgs. for Ariza, Sweets
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