If the Knicks cannot obtain 2 top 10 players this year, they are best off developing another year and adding to their pool of players through next years draft together with $70MM of cap space. Mark this down as a fact. Assume it to be true. Use it as the base tenet that all other actions will derive from.
It has two parts. First, is that you need two top 10 players to be a contender in this version of the NBA. Its really an all or none league. If you don't have 2, you are better off playing the lotto. Lebron James and Anthony Davis are sitting on the throne. Only player I think AD leaves Lebron for is Giannis Antekoumpo. That is just an age statement and nothing else. Unless GA can work out a trade right now, they will be looking to pair in 2021 free agency. I do believe that is the holdup with Anthony Davis re-signing and Giannis signing the supermax. I don't think this necessarily means NY is the destination. But they are probably one of a few possible locations out there. Certainly feels like the two are acting in concert.
The second is that the Knicks are better off waiting one more year. Truth is, the Garden will be empty this year no matter who they sign or don't. If some magical superstar trade were to be made available, I think you pull that trigger immediately (Bird in the band). That said, if they were to wait one more year, add next years draft picks to this core and then sign 70MM worth of free agents, the only downside risk there is that they are not strong enough to entice free agents. With that many draft picks and $70mm, I am willing to take those changes.
The way I see it, the Bucks gave up way too much for Jrue Holiday. If I am Giannis, I am impressed by this, but it absolutely hampers them going forward. Jrue Holiday is not a top 10 player. Even if Bogdonovic did not deny the trade, it really didn't make sense. It hurt more than it helped. Reeks of desperation.
I really think AD and GA pair up, wither this year or next. If it were the Knicks, they send Randle, Barrett (those salaries currently match GA) and a bunch of draft picks to get GA. They could pretty easily still clear enough space to sign AD outright by moving DSJ and FN. The Knicks roster only makes sense if they are leaving room for this possibility. It doesn't really make sense otherwise. I don't think there are many other places that can make a better deal for GA and return draft picks.
The real question is whether you give up Barrett and draft picks to do it in 2020 (if even possible) or wait to 2021 and have that entire stash of players and picks ready to sign? Honestly, unless you were certain they were coming (nothing is certain), I'd pull the trigger sooner than later. But, if you were really connected and knew they were coming in 2021, you would have a hoard of high draft picks and free agent dollars to spend in 2021. Only Oklahoma is better positioned for 2021, imo.
Safest move is to lock in two top 10 players now. But, they need willing counterparties to do that. Nothing is clear that this is even possible. So, barring some magic AD/GA pairing that catches everyone unaware, the Knicks should walk into 2021 with a developing squad, a fistful of draft picks and wad of cash.