https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roberan03.html

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/oklahoma-city-thunder/andre-roberson-13339/

2020 Projected Veterans Minimum Exception Salary - $2,174,318

A one year deal would have a cap charge of $2,174,318 but only a cash hit of $1,620,564. The NBA would pay $553,754 of Roberson's salary

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-projections/andre-roberson/

Wins above replacement projection
Category: ROTATION PLAYER
5-yr market value: $24.5m
Projected RAPTOR Plus/Minus : -0.1 / WAR: 1.1 / 2020 Market Value: 5.3 million / Total Rating: N/A out of 450 total players

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2910191-boom-or-bust-2020-nba-free-agents

Defensive dynamo or damaged goods? That's the boom-or-bust question any team considering Andre Roberson must answer.

He made a seven-game cameo for the Oklahoma City Thunder in the bubble, though they didn't go back to him in the postseason after being outscored by six points over his three minutes in Game 1 of the first round. Before that, he hadn't hit the hardwood since January 2018, when he suffered a torn left patellar tendon.

The fact that he even worked his way back from a nearly three-year absence was a tremendous accomplishment.

"It was an unbelievable feeling for us to see one of our brothers who we know what he's been through mentally," Chris Paul said after Roberson first took the floor in Florida, per ESPN's Royce Young. "... To see him out there playing this game that we all love, it's special."

Of course, Roberson's journey only carries so much weight when it comes to his free agency. He might score some perseverance points with executives, and that clearly beats entering the market without ever sniffing the floor, but suffice it to say his 90 minutes of game time hardly painted a clear picture of what lies ahead.

At one point, he was among the stingiest stoppers in the game. He earned an All-Defensive second-team nod in 2016-17 and flashed the versatility needed to pester opponents across multiple positions. He never found an outside shot, but his energy gave him some offensive value in transition, as an off-ball cutter and on the glass.

If he can still be that player, he could step in and fill a role for a contender. But if he's lost some zip, then we might be talking about a run-of-the-mill defender who's a major liability at the other end. He probably won't cost much, but even then he could be a major misfire if his body won't let him contribute.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2698613-metrics-101-the-top-5-nba-defenders-at-every-position?_ga=2.24848186.1465817047.1602489976-155967634.1602489976

Metrics 101: The Top 5 NBA Defenders at Every Position
Adam Fromal
March 22, 2017

Avoid attacking these 25 players, as determined by four different defensive categories:

ESPN.com's defensive real plus/minus, presented such that a positive score is beneficial and a negative score indicates below-average play.
NBA Math's defensive points saved, which accounts for defensive volume and efficiency while also taking defensive rebounding into consideration.
Field-goal percentage differential, such that a negative score indicates a player is holding his assignments below their typical shooting percentages.
On/off differential, such that a negative score indicates a player's team has a lower defensive rating with him on the floor.

All 310 qualified players (minimum of 15 minutes per game) were ranked in each of the four categories, using stats accurate heading into games March 18. Their defensive scores were determined by summing their ranks across the board: the lower, the better; the higher, the more porous.

No. 2 Small Forward: Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City Thunder (105 Defense Score)

Defensive Real Plus/Minus: 2.17 (No. 29)

Defensive Points Saved: 75.77 (No. 25)

Field-Goal Percentage Differential: minus-4.3 (No. 23)

On/Off Differential: minus-5.4 (No. 28)

Andre Roberson is the textbook example of how to carve out a rotation role when your jumper doesn't work. The three-point attempts he bricks out of the corners are rendered almost irrelevant by his point-preventing prowess and rebounding edge, which factors into NBA Math's defensive points saved.

"Coaches have taught me whichever way you're sliding you throw the hand that's closest to them," Roberson told Vice Sports' Michael Pina for a must-read article about the small forward's Defensive Player of the Year hopes. "Because every second matters, every little contest matters, every percentage matters when it comes to winning games. It can always come down to a point or two."

That mentality can't be missed.

Roberson makes an effort to contest every shot. He works hard to recover after his man gets by him. He never takes a possession off. He scouts opponents thoroughly, trying to gain even the most marginal advantages in the hopes of helping out the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Those may seem like little pieces of the overall puzzle, but it's shocking how many players don't buy into that mentality. Roberson does, and that, paired with his physical gifts and gigantic wingspan, has allowed him to move from plus-defender territory to the fringes of the DPOY conversation.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-roberson-on-entering-nbas-defensive-elite/

NBA AM: Roberson On Entering NBA’s Defensive Elite
February 10, 2017
By Ben Dowsett

When most people think of the best wing defenders in the game today, a few typical names deservedly pop up. Kawhi Leonard. Tony Allen. Paul George. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, if you’re just the right hint of NBA hipster.

Andre Roberson thinks he belongs on the list.

“Not to be ****y or anything, but I feel like I’m definitely one of the top defenders in the league right now,” Roberson told Basketball Insiders. “I do it a high level.”

Roberson feels the need to put a ****iness disclaimer in there, but he could be easily excused if he didn’t. Defensive numbers are a murky and imprecise science, but the ones we have available have consistently ranked Roberson right among those starrier defensive names.

The relevant figures here aren’t blocks or steals as much as they’re team metrics which reflect Roberson’s impact on the Thunder. Oklahoma City is nearly seven points per-100-possessions worse defensively when Roberson hits the bench compared to when he plays, per NBA.com, the same gap found between one of the league’s five best defenses and one of its five worst. Opponents draw fewer fouls and shoot fewer free throws while he plays, and his length on the perimeter is a big reason the Thunder’s three-point defense suffers when he sits.

These numbers can get noisy, especially with coach Billy Donovan’s substitution patterns, but ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus metric helps us contextualize by factoring for teammate and opponent context. Roberson is in the league’s top 40 by DRPM, one of just a handful of non-bigs with that distinction, and sixth among small forwards. RPM estimates he’s saved the Thunder over two points per-100-possessions, second on the team only to anchor Steven Adams. When factoring in the reality that big men are viewed more favorably by this metric, there’s a real case that Roberson has been the team’s most impactful defender.

Roberson is used to making this kind of impact. He’s been doing it since well before his NBA days.

“I always liked doing it growing up,” Roberson said. “My dad always taught me to play both sides of the game. I kind of gravitated towards the defensive end when I was getting overlooked in high school.”

That last bit might be the crux of his motivation. Plenty of pro athletes draw their fire from being passed over, and for Roberson, this started well before he hit the professional ranks. He was just a three-star high school recruit according to ESPN, listed as the 62nd ranked power forward in the country coming out of Karen Wagner High School outside of San Antonio. He watched guys around him draw rave reviews, and this was the best way he could think of to even the scales.

“I just wanted to show everybody I could still compete with those guys, and play on the same level as them,” Roberson told Basketball Insiders. “That was me going out there and having a chip on my shoulder, going out there trying to guard those guys. I guess that’s where I got it from, [and] I still hold it even to this day.”

That star-killer mindset never left, it turns out.

Roberson has become Donovan’s defensive trump card, a shutdown artist who spends long stretches making life difficult for top opposing ball-handlers. “He can guard point guards, he can guard two-guards, he can guard small forwards,” Donovan said. “He’s guarded just about everybody in the league.”

Roberson’s impressive wingspan (measured 6-foot-11 on his 6-foot-7 frame before he was drafted) helps him challenge quicker guards, and his strength honed from mostly playing the forward spots before the NBA helps him with the LeBron/George types. Quietly, he’s become one of the guys none of these stars wants to see.

“I don’t know why it don’t get noticed or people don’t pay attention to it,” said star Russell Westbrook. “But every night, he guards the other team’s best player and they don’t seem to do very well when he guards them (chuckles). He’s been doing it all season long.”

In two matchups, Roberson has held newly minted All-Star Gordon Hayward to 13-for-31 shooting. In a game against the Knicks, Roberson held Carmelo Anthony to 4-for-19. George went 7-for-20 against him recently during a really strong run of play, including just 2-for-9 from deep.

If the only Rockets games you’d seen this year were against the Thunder, you’d wonder how the hell James Harden got all this MVP buzz: Roberson has stifled him to the tune of an alarming 16-for-45 shooting in three matchups (barely 33 percent).

In a weird way, constantly being tasked with such a tough assignment makes things simpler for Roberson.

“For me, it’s kind of easier just knowing that the guy I’m guarding, most of the time the ball is gonna try to go to him,” Roberson told Basketall Insiders. “I just try to go out there and try to make it harder for him to kind of jump coverages a little bit, kind of take him out that sweet spot.”

Those star performances listed above might be isolated incidents on small samples, but season-long numbers paint a similar picture.

Roberson lands in the league’s top 10 for “field goal percentage difference allowed” among volume defenders, per SportVU – that is, the difference between a player’s normal field goal percentage on a given range of shots and his actual percentage when guarded by a particular defender, Roberson in this case. He shaves nearly five percentage points off the average shot taken when he’s the nearest defender.

In a lot of cases, these numbers are noisy and perhaps even unusable. The player who was the closest defender to a shot wasn’t necessarily the player “defending” the shooter through a possession, and the very idea that singular blame or praise can be given to one defender on a given shot doesn’t always hold for a theme as complex as NBA defense. With a bit of context, though, these conform with everything else we already know about Roberson.

For starters, his percentage isn’t heavily influenced by a big drop in opponent three-point percentage. Threes are the most variable shots in the game, and SportVU doesn’t care if you’re a foot away or six feet away – if you’re the closest defender, that shot goes on your dossier. Many of the inflated and unrealistic defensive figures we see from this data are heavily influenced by guys who just happened to be the closest defender for a lot of missed threes.

Roberson is the opposite. He’s affected opponent three-point percentage negatively (he’s affected shots from every distance range negatively), but a much lower percentage of his defended shots have been threes than many other volume wing defenders. Meanwhile, his percentages get even stingier as shooters move closer to the basket – or in other words, as we get closer to a range where these figures are reliable.

Guys see their percentages on shots within 10 feet of the hoop drop a full 7.5 percentage points when Roberson is checking them, one of the best rates in the league for wing defenders. Only a handful of non-bigs defend more shots at the rim every night, per SportVU, and of this handful, only three relative athletic freaks – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant and Al-Farouq Aminu – have posted a stingier percentage allowed. And remember, he’s doing it all while pretty much constantly checking the opponent’s top option, often a superstar.

Ask those close to him, and they’ll tell you Roberson has already had these skills in the bag for years. He’s had this role with Donovan since Billy came to town to replace Scott Brooks, and even held it for long periods with Brooks in town. Donovan has an interesting theoretical take on what his next step has been this year.

“Everybody offensively in the league is pretty much doing the same thing,” Donovan said. “But how you get there, and the movement, and how the floor starts to get moved, and how stuff gets disguised – [that’s] really the challenge.

“I think because of [Andre’s] experience playing in the league, his awareness in being able to read what’s getting ready to happen, what’s getting ready to take place when he may be in a vulnerable situation – he’s really, really good at that.”

The skills have always been there, but the outlines of one of the league’s smartest perimeter defenders have been forming for a while now. Roberson’s court sense has really improved, and it’s a perfect tandem with his slithery defensive nature; he gets the Thunder an extra possession or two a night by swooping in on unsuspecting big men from weird angles.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FicklePleasingKitten-mobile.mp4

The difference between a great defender and merely a good one is often a split-second decision. Roberson’s feel for the little in-between moments that end up hopeless for most guys is part of what makes him so valuable defensively – watch him ride the middle and make a spot-on read in a spot where most guys lazily commit one way or the other and give up a wide open three.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/HeavyObeseBobwhite-mobile.mp4

A similar defender stylistically in Danny Green gets all the credit as the league’s preeminent transition stopper, but Roberson is nipping at his heels.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BrokenEdibleBadger-mobile.mp4

The effect on the team scheme has been the most noticeable result. Roberson has worked diligently with assistant coach Darko Rajakovic on the mental side of his game – watching film, learning opposing play calls and honing his three years of experience into a weapon.

“He’s already an amazing one-on-one [defender] – he was when he first came into the league,” Adams said of Roberson. “His steps are now really just helping everyone else on defense. He’s able to understand and read the plays, and understand, like, some plays that are just smoke screen. It helps me out a lot on pick-and-rolls.”

It’s easy to see what he means. See if you can catch the smart ways Roberson (#21 in white, top of the screen) influences this Utah Jazz possession:

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/AdorableSlowAltiplanochinchillamouse-mobile.mp4

First, he comes across to show Rudy Gobert a body as Gobert rolls away from the Thunder’s trap on ball-handler George Hill:

Just as quickly, though, Roberson spots the real action: Gobert is setting up to screen Roberson himself, allowing Roberson’s man, Hayward, to pop up and catch the ball on the curl:

Roberson reads the Gobert pick, and beats Hayward around the corner. Hayward smartly looks to reverse the screen with Gobert, but here’s Roberson’s slithery quality again – he stays attached to Hayward’s hip through the smallest of gaps.

By the time Hayward has jumped for Hill’s pass and landed, Roberson is right back in his grill:

Adams can rotate back to Gobert to prevent the lob, the Thunder’s help defenders can stay home on three-point shooters, and Hayward is stuck looking for a bailout.

“If he didn’t do that, the dude would be going downhill against me and that’d be tragic,” Adams said in his unique style. “Exactly what we don’t want.”

All over the court, Roberson just makes stuff easier for guys. A huge percentage of his steals seem to come in areas that lead to fast breaks – part of the Thunder’s life blood offensively. Oklahoma City picks up over two extra points off turnovers for every 36 minutes he spends on the court compared to off, and they add nearly four fast break points in the same time span.

His teammates rave about his team-first attitude, and his coach goes out of his way to note the finer details of his game which have improved. Roberson just keeps doing what he’s always been doing.

“I go out there, just try to give it all my energy and effort to the defensive end,” Roberson told Basketball Insiders. “The guys follow suit, they feed off the energy and it helps them.

“The same way it works with the crowd, you feed off the crowd. I try to be the crowd for my team.”

********

Injury Profile

https://oklahoman.com/article/5653358/thunder-looking-back-on-two-year-anniversary-of-andre-robersons-injury

Thunder: Looking back on two-year anniversary of Andre Roberson's injury
by Joe Mussatto
Published: Mon, January 27, 2020 1:04 AM

A persistent mist made for an unpleasant November afternoon, but Andre Roberson’s warm smile counterracted the grayness of it all.

Roberson, at a community event in northeast Oklahoma City, had 400 free turkeys — and almost as many hugs — to pass out ahead of the holidays.

Families shuffled in and out, and a little boy stared up at the 6-foot-7 Thunder wing. The boy told Roberson that he had seen Roberson play on TV.

Roberson gently doubted the boy. It had been 22 months since Roberson last played a game. The boy looked too young to have remembered the Thunder’s lockdown defender, who made 269 starts from 2013-18.

Monday marks two years since Roberson’s left knee buckled in Detroit. One surgery, to repair a ruptured patellar tendon, led to more procedures and even more setbacks.

Roberson is at 730 days and counting since his last game.

The memory of Jan. 27, 2018, is etched into Anthony Roberson’s mind.

“I was literally sitting on the couch watching the game medded up,” said Anthony, who plays for the G League Oklahoma City Blue.

Anthony played college basketball at the University of Central Oklahoma. He had just undergone surgery for a torn meniscus in his left knee. And then he saw his older brother go down.

“And it's crazy,” Anthony said. “He was joking about me a couple days before. I was complaining about the pain and he was like, 'Stop being a little baby.' And then when he got home that day I just saw him crutching in and was like, 'You shouldn't have been talking.’”

Anthony shakes his head.

He’s still pursuing his basketball dreams in Oklahoma City while Andre is rehabbing in Los Angeles away from the organization.

Andre was not made available for an interview. The 28-year-old is earning $10.7 million in the final year of his contract.

“He really wants to get out there,” Anthony said, “but, yeah…”

Anthony’s voice trails off. He knows better than to speculate about when Andre will return to the court.

On the two-year anniversary of Andre Roberson’s injury, a timeline best tells his story.

•••

Dec. 31, 2017: Andre Roberson misses the first game of what will be an eight-game absence due to left knee tendinitis. Roberson returns to action on Jan. 17.

Jan. 27, 2018: With 4:33 left in the third quarter at Detroit, Roberson makes a baseline cut to the rim to catch a lob from Russell Westbrook. As Roberson leaps for the alley-oop, his left knee buckles beneath him. Roberson lands on his backside, turns over on his stomach, and uses his arms to scoot himself out of bounds. With his chin on the court, Roberson closes his eyes and grimaces. As he turns on his side, Roberson looks at his knee and shakes his head. Teammates and trainers gather around him. Roberson’s left leg is put in a black air cast and he’s placed onto a yellow cart. Steven Adams squeezes and pats Roberson’s right shoulder as he’s rolled away. Pistons center Andre Drummond does the same. Roberson bites down on a white towel as he’s taken to the visitor’s locker room for evaluation. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski tweets that preliminary reports show a ruptured left patellar tendon. The patellar tendon attaches the bottom of the kneecap to the top of the shinbone. “It’s s***,” Adams says in the locker room after the Thunder’s 121-108 win. “It’s real s***.” Paul George says he’ll be there for Roberson throughout the rehab process. “Because I know how it is,” George says. “I’ve been down that road before. One thing about Dre, man, he’s tough. He’s a strong person. He’ll definitely persevere through.”

Jan. 28, 2018: The Thunder announces that Roberson will undergo surgery to repair the ruptured patellar tendon. He’s expected to miss the rest of the season, but no timeline for Roberson’s return is set.

March 7, 2018: Roberson speaks to reporters for the first time since his injury. His left knee remains mostly immobile. “I’m doing everything I can to stay involved,” Roberson says. “Being around the guys just makes me feel not alone. Because a lot of time, I’m alone, four walls, by myself, doing rehab with someone one-on-one.”

May 29, 2018: Roberson undergoes arthroscopic surgery to relieve inflammation in his left knee. Roberson’s rehab is still on track, according to the Thunder, and he’s expected to be ready for the 2018-19 season.

July 9, 2018: Roberson targets training camp for his return. “I’m up, walking around, being mobile, which kind of eases me at times,” Roberson says. “I always look back at the times where I was just lying in bed and I keep telling myself I’ve come a long way, so there’s nothing to be frustrated about.”

Sept. 20, 2018: Thunder general manager Sam Presti says Roberson will be a non-contact participant in training camp. “He’s doing a lot more this week than he was last week,” Presti says. “He’s through the hardest part of this recovery process. We don’t think we will be without him very long.”

Oct. 4, 2018: A Thunder spokesman confirms Roberson suffered a setback. A suture from Roberson’s initial surgery in January was irritating his left knee and creating discomfort. Roberson undergoes a procedure to alleviate the irritation. He will be re-evaluated in two months.

Nov. 29, 2018: Thunder coach Billy Donovan assesses Roberson’s progress: “You guys have seen him out there. He’s cutting, he’s moving. He’s been on a really good track.”

Nov. 30, 2018: An MRI shows that Roberson has a small avulsion fracture in his surgically repaired left knee. An avulsion fracture, according to the Mayo Clinic, occurs when “a small portion of bone attached to a tendon or ligament gets pulled away from the main part of the bone.” Roberson suffered the setback during a non-contact practice. The Thunder plans to re-evaluate Roberson in six weeks.

Jan. 14, 2019: Donovan says Roberson is “not anywhere near playing.”

Jan. 27, 2019: One year since Roberson ruptured his left patellar tendon.

Feb. 26, 2019: The Thunder is optimistic that Roberson will return by the end of the season. “How that progresses we’ll have to wait and see,” Donovan says. “But to me it is encouraging to see that he’s jogging around a little out there, shooting the ball a little bit.”

April 4, 2019: Donovan indicates that Roberson will not return by the end of the season. “He’s not even doing anything in practice,” Donovan says.

April 25, 2019: Roberson says he was about 85% to 90% healthy when he heard a crunch going up for a dunk. Roberson says he “cried a little bit” when he received the news that an avulsion fracture would extend his recovery timeline.

June 21, 2019: Presti asked about Roberson: “I saw some video clips of him the other day that were really impressive. I think he’s just itching to get back out on the court.”

Sept. 1, 2019: John Roberson, Andre’s father, tells The Oklahoman: “When you get injured, it takes a toll on you mentally because you’re constantly doubting yourself … I think that’s been the biggest hurdle he’s had to get over.”

Sept. 26, 2019: Presti says Roberson will participate in training camp, and that the organization is “hopeful” Roberson will play in the preseason.

Oct. 1, 2019: Roberson enters training camp with no restrictions, Donovan says. Roberson says his goal is to play in the Thunder’s first preseason game. “Through the dark days, it’s obviously hard to see where you end up, or you always second guess yourself here and there,” Roberson says. “But you got to keep the faith.”

Oct. 3, 2019: Roberson is expected to play in the Blue & White scrimmage. “I think the medical staff with Andre will probably give me some direction on what the minutes would look like,” Donovan says.

Oct. 6, 2019: Roberson will not play in the Blue & White scrimmage, the Thunder announces before the game.

Oct. 7, 2019: Roberson is ruled out for the Thunder’s preseason opener. “Probably some soreness there for him, which is going to be normal,” Donovan said. “But it’s the most contact he’s done in consecutive days. Instead of setting him back by playing him, we figure we’d give him a rest.”

Oct. 18, 2019: Roberson addresses reporters after a post-practice workout. “I don’t know if I look good over there to you guys or not,” Roberson says, “but I feel good.”

Oct. 21, 2019: Roberson plays 17 minutes in a scrimmage. The next day, Donovan says Roberson reacted well to two days of increased contact in practice.

Oct. 23, 2019: Roberson is ruled out for the Thunder’s season opener at Utah. Two days before, Donovan said Roberson’s status would be known “closer to the game day shootaround.”

Nov. 15, 2019: Donovan asked if he expects Roberson to return by the end of the season: “We’re hopeful. He’s a lot better off today than he was last year at this point … Where that leads and how far away from playing is he? It’s just too hard for me to say.”

Dec. 3, 2019: The Thunder announces that Roberson will continue his injury rehab away from the team in Los Angeles for a change of scenery. “He’s gotten to a point, and he can’t get past that point,” Donovan says.

Jan. 18, 2020: Donovan says Roberson is going back and forth between Los Angeles and Oklahoma City. Donovan says there’s “nothing more to report in terms of him being anywhere near close to being able to play.”

Jan. 27, 2020: Two years since Roberson ruptured his left patellar tendon.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29518537/the-nba-restart-gave-andre-roberson-comeback-another-chance

The NBA restart gave Andre Roberson's comeback another chance
Jul 24, 2020
Royce Young ESPN Staff Writer

FOR ANDRE ROBERSON, it's been two and a half years. It's been 30 months of rehab and recovery. It's been 180 games since he went down with a devastating left knee injury, and 180 games since he last played.

He knows.

"I get it. I get it," he said from inside the Orlando, Florida, bubble. "It's just tough to talk about."

The defensive specialist for the Oklahoma City Thunder has walked a journey few in NBA history ever have, in a baffling amount of time between games.

There are players who have suffered terrible leg injuries and made it back. Indiana Pacers guard Victor Oladipo was back in a year from a ruptured quad tendon. So was Boston Celtics forward Gordon Hayward after a dislocated ankle and fractured tibia. Then-Pacers forward Paul George returned in a shorter time than that from his broken leg. Shaun Livingston was out 610 days after his gruesome knee injury before becoming a key reserve for the Golden State Warriors.

Not many players have gone this long, stuck in the cycle of setbacks, surgeries and rehab, as the 28-year-old Roberson has.

If he takes the court for the Thunder's restart opener on Aug. 1, Roberson will go 916 days between games. According to ESPN Stats & Info research, it would be the longest span between regular season games -- for a player who did not play in any other league -- since Quincy Pondexter went 917 days from April 15, 2015 to Oct. 19, 2017.

For Roberson, the time away from the court has been "a whirlwind."

"There were great times, happy, sad, depressed, ecstatic, mad," he said.

Roberson has spent his career on the periphery, an accessory to the star-driven teams of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and George and Carmelo Anthony. But he has become a Thunder fan favorite, a link between the franchise's past and present, one of its longest-tenured players and a source of pride in their scouting and development.

After being on the cusp of a return only to fall back down three separate times, Roberson is finally on the verge of completing his comeback as the NBA prepares to resume its season at the Walt Disney World Resort.

"Basically a big roller coaster of emotions," Roberson said of his rehab process to get to this point. "Just being so close, and then something else would happen. Setback after setback. I don't know man, it was just tough. ...

"[There were] definitely a lot of times I was ready to give up."

IT WAS JAN. 27, 2018, and Roberson had just made a baseline cut off the right corner in the third quarter against the Detroit Pistons.

Westbrook lobbed a pass toward the corner of the backboard, an example of the non-verbal connection the two shared on the court. Roberson planted to elevate, but both feet went flying out from under him.

The crowd gasped, and Roberson fell hard onto his back. It looked like a slip, an embarrassing play that Roberson would laugh about the next day in film sessions after shaking off a bruise on his backside. Instead, it was serious.

He rolled onto his stomach and put both palms onto the floor, dragging himself off the court. Seconds passed, and finally, Roberson mustered the resolve to look down at his left knee. It was caved in.

"I was basically like, "What the f---?" he said. "What do I do now?"

After the swelling went down, he had surgery to repair a ruptured patellar tendon.

"It's s---. It's real s---," Thunder center Steven Adams said after the injury. "He's a huge part of our team and why we win."

Roberson is a defensive specialist, a quintessential role player, originally drafted to fill the job of stopper alongside Westbrook and Durant, and then Westbrook and George.

He has been a natural target for critics and fans because of his shooting deficiency -- he is a career 25.7% 3-point shooter -- but as the leader of a swarming defense, he was generating Defensive Player of the Year buzz. The recognition was coming.

After his injury, the Thunder lost five of their next six, wandering on the defensive end.

The original timetable had Roberson eyeing opening night 2019 as his return. He had a scope on his knee in May 2018 to relieve some inflammation, but everything was on track. In early October 2018, he started feeling discomfort. He had a loose suture causing irritation and needed a procedure.

He would miss another two months.

IN NOVEMBER 2018, Roberson was progressing -- running, cutting, jumping. He was going through high-intensity individual workouts in front of media members when he went up for a dunk, landed awkwardly and started feeling discomfort in his knee.

He had an MRI, and Donnie Strack, the Thunder's team doctor, wanted to come to Roberson's house to deliver the results in person.

"I just kind of felt like bad news was coming," Roberson said. "I almost didn't want them to come over. I just kind of knew it wasn't good."

Roberson had an avulsion fracture: a small portion of bone attached to a tendon was pulled away from his surgically repaired knee. His leg would need to be immobilized again, the rehab process starting over for at least another few months.

His quad muscle atrophied because of it, and he would need to build it back up. He hoped he could maybe get back for the postseason, but returning for the 2018-19 season never happened.

Roberson thought he'd be ready for this season and said at Thunder media day he was "full go." But by the opening practice, he wasn't.

He wasn't playing full 5-on-5 contact basketball, and as the preseason opened, he still wasn't ready. Roberson missed opening night. He missed the first month.

In December 2019, he stepped away from the team, taking his rehab to Los Angeles. He explained he didn't want to be a burden on the medical staff or a distraction to the team. He needed a new environment, and his girlfriend, Rachel DeMita, was mostly in L.A.

"There were times after I would get home from practice and I'd just be alone with my thoughts," Roberson said, "so I just needed somebody to be with me."

Roberson is known to be the "ultimate teammate," as many in the organization describe him. He spent the summer of 2018 in New Zealand at Adams' basketball camp, in Iowa City at Nick Collison's retirement party and in Barcelona for Alex Abrines' wedding. He showed up to Chris Paul's documentary premiere in September, even though they'd never played a game together. He tutored the Thunder's younger defensive wings Terrance Ferguson and Luguentz Dort, sitting in on film sessions.

"Dre is about everything that's right in sports and in teams," Thunder general manager Sam Presti said. "The way you know that is when things are not going right for you, you can be totally invested in the team. And I think that's a real form of mental toughness."

THIS SEASON LOOKED like it too was slipping away from Roberson, but the league's hiatus and restart presented the opportunity to start anew.

He has confidence in his knee and his body. He added about 10 pounds of muscle in the past year and built up his left quad. He is preparing to scale up and play some minutes at power forward during the Thunder's eight-game seeding schedule and into the playoffs, where Oklahoma City currently sits fifth in the Western Conference.

How much of a difference-maker he might be will be determined by how well he responds to actual game minutes and where the opportunities are for him to impact matchups. But his institutional knowledge and experience are valuable components.

"Every practice has been good in terms of my timing, getting a feel for everything," Roberson said. "I feel like I'm finally ready."

The Thunder are being careful not to add pressure to his return. They've stood by Roberson since the moment he was first injured in Detroit. For a small-market team sitting in the luxury tax, moving off his $10 million salary was an option.

"Sam [Presti] was a big factor," Roberson said. "The constant communication and the reassurance just to keep going is what this organization is all about: being resilient and keep fighting no matter what."

Roberson rattled off a list of names important to his comeback -- Strack, trainer Tony Katzenmeier, PR director Matt Tumbleson, teammates including Adams who lives two houses down from Roberson and routinely brought him food during his rehab, and Westbrook who called to offer encouragement and talk about his own struggles in recovering from knee issues.

"His quest is a testament as to why he's a great defender," Presti said. "When someone scores on him, it doesn't deter him from the next possession. He doesn't get disrupted when things don't go his way.

"You can play great defense on one of these great players in the NBA and they're going to score on you. It's the same thing with this. When you suffer an injury there are going to be setbacks, and in his case there were more than you would've hoped. But that hasn't deterred him."

Roberson concedes he's probably not the same athlete he was before, but he's making up for it in awareness and intelligence.

"He's the smartest defender I've ever been around," Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said.

Roberson said his shot feels better than ever, discovering confidence in his jumper that escaped him for most of his career. Teammates are raving about him looking like himself again.

"Dre, he's still got it on the defense end," Thunder guard Dennis Schroder said. "We've played pickup a little bit in OKC. He looks pretty good. On the defensive end he's a threat."

Roberson feels the support. He knows his team, his coaches, his trainers, his fans, his family are pulling for him to play in a game again.

"He's had low moments. He's had moments when you thought he was right there," Presti said. "But nothing makes you happier than when you see him on the floor."

The other consideration is that because this will be a Covid-asterisk season - starting fast and winning early will be key to any bubble qualification, I'm not sure adding any injury risks is a wise decision unless there's a confident plan B.

TripleThreat wrote:The Knicks will have to continue to shop in the Tier 4/Tier 5 areas of free agency

Don't know if I've missed it before but you may want to help us understand how the Tiers are defined. Same for draft tiers. I am interested to know how front offices think in terms of draft tiers from year to year too and how that may work in terms of draft pick trades. #2 LaMelo Ball to KNicks for No#8 (Vassell), No#27, Dallas 2021 1st & Frank Ntilikina..... is not the same as #2 Ja Morant value pick? LaMelo and Ja same tier?

http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=61244

martin wrote:Don't know if I've missed it before but you may want to help us understand how the Tiers are defined. Same for draft tiers. I am interested to know how front offices think in terms of draft tiers from year to year too and how that may work in terms of draft pick trades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NBA_draft

I'll use the 2014 draft as an example. Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Embiid were the consensus top three guys going off the board first. There was a clear hard line between their talent/potential in the eyes of front offices than the rest of the players in the class. The 76ers had the third pick. If any of those three players fell to third, that's who the 76ers would have taken. That's usually how to best evaluate a Tier and where it ends. It ends when there is a general agreement on a set number of players going in a set range of picks and the last team in the tier takes the last player left in that specific pool.

Arguably picks 4-8 or 4-10 were Tier 2. Aaron Gordon went 4th. But Exum or Julius Randle could have easily gone 4th and still approximated value for slot.

So a team wanting to trade up, the value for slot price jumps exponentially between the 3rd and 4th pick. The last pick in Tier 1 has a ton more perceived market value than the first pick in Tier 2.

This is why the Dario Saric/Elfrid Payton trade worked out as such. The Magic had to pay a price to move up into the next tier.

I'm not a huge fantasy sports person, but I know they use positional tiers a strategy for redraft leagues. That's one crossover example, not quite exact, but close enough to form an example. I.E. it's better to take a running back at the end of Tier 2 before the talent drops off at the position instead of taking a wide receiver where the talent pool is deeper.

***

Free agency

Tier 1 - Player can get max years/length of contract plus max possible AAV to the destination of their choice and teams will reshuffle their cap/roster to accommodate the player.

Tier 2 - Player can get max years/length of contract plus max possible AAV to the destination of their choice and teams will NOT reshuffle their cap/roster to accommodate the player. Only teams with practical fit/open space are viable

Tier 3 - Middle class contracts that are market appropriate (AAV/Length) for the player involved. I.E. the pathway is some form of market correction. A young player who outproduced his rookie deal is now playing to a contract that aligns to current league trends/values. Or a formerly elite player gets a market correction to his decline. These are more and more rare. ( Post The Decision, LeBron James singlehandedly destroyed this type of free agent contract. He ****ed every future generation of NBA players to come. If he wasn't Nike's poster boy, the net impact would be the same internal destructive value to players as Pete Rose gambling on baseball. Essentially owners said to LeBron, you can get a little more money, but you'll have to make sure a mass of future players will be phased out of getting a league pension. LBJ said cool, **** them, pay me. )

Tier 4 - Players who can get above market value contract (AAV/length) but only by the bottom 15 percent of teams in terms of winning/potential winning/projected winning. The contrast point is usually 25-50 percent. So a contender will give you a 2 year deal at 10 million AAV. A bottom rung team will give you a four year deal at 15 million AAV. The two biggest drivers of this are GM's terrified of losing their jobs soon and the gun to the head situation with bad teams needing to get to the salary floor.

Tier 5 - Guys just trying to stay in the league period. Broken down aging veterans who want to keep playing. Guys trying to squeeze in that last year or two to qualify for a league pension. Guys who had major injury profiles. Guys with off court/personality/mental health/criminal glitches. Guys who are blackballed by most teams/coaches/players like a declining Jason Richardson. Nepotisms like JR Smiths brother or Greek Freak's brother. "Euro Bias" type outliers (i.e. guys who are undervalued for social/cultural reasons that have nothing to do with skill/ability) like Jeremy Lin. Novelties ( i.e. Sun Ming Ming, etc)

HofstraBBall wrote:Exactly why you can not use guys like Roberson. You need to surround RJ and MR with guys that can shoot. Since both of them have yet to show they can.

BigDaddyG wrote:... this situation is crap. This offense isn't suited for someone with his limited offensive skills and his strengths would get lost on this roster the way it's currently constructed....

I agree with you. But the Knicks have to try to do something to get better.

Put it this way. I'd rather have Roberson and his risks than Bobby Portis. Or Lance Thomas. Or Derrick Williams. Or Alonzo Trier.

jrodmc wrote:Who does he come off the bench to replace? DSJr when he goes ice cold? Some other piece of flotsam in the third quarter so we can either remain tied by not scoring or lose a lead because now we're playing 4 on 5 on offense?

We build the end of the bench first?

These are more than fair questions.

Here's the best way I can explain it.

Let's take a homeless person. If you want to help one. Well first just get him out of those filthy clothes and get him a long hot shower and feed him. Let him sleep in a bed for a day. He might not be able to hold a job at first. So maybe something light like to volunteer. Baby steps.

In a bad situation, you have to aim for small wins. For a homeless guy, just brushing your teeth every day could be a win.

The best answer is there are many scenarios were Roberson doesn't fit into a practical team concept. The Knicks have been losing a long time (i.e. they are the homeless guy). Part of the process is getting good locker room/culture guy type fundamental oriented veterans onto the roster. If the rosters stay at 17 with COVID19 expansion, there could be room for him.

In free agency, without gross overpays, the Knicks will be one of the last dogs at the bowl. This is what teams in that situation have to do.

I see potential value with Roberson. On the roster, in the marketing, in the locker room, on the court. The Knicks will lose a lot of games this year and be an Island of Misfit Toys. My take is it's better to embrace this part of the process because there aren't too many other choices.