https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2020/5/20/21255472/deanthony-melton-nba-free-agency-atlanta-hawks-memphis-grizzlies-offer-sheet-guard-defense-offensePer Cleaning the Glass, the best on/off differential on Memphis belongs not to Rookie of the Year frontrunner Ja Morant, but Melton. He also had the best net rating among players who logged at least 500 minutes for the Grizzlies. His team was more than four points worse with him off the floor, according to PBP Stats.
Further, Melton has the team’s second-best mark in total RAPTOR (min. 500 minutes played) as well as the team’s second-highest PIPM. Despite playing only a little over 1,000 minutes, he’s third on the Grizzlies in PIPM’s Wins Added category. In summary, metrics, which attempt to ballpark holistic impact, really like Melton.
Primarily, Melton provides impact by playing superb defense at the point of attack. With a defensive rating of 105 per NBA Stats, he posted the team’s top rating among players who played at least 500 minutes.
Equipped with great hands and instinctive, Melton is a force as an on-ball defender, where he’s usually tasked with mucking up the point of attack and disrupting the opponent’s offensive rhythm. He was one of only five players to post at least a 3% steal rate this season (minimum 40 games played). He’s able to generate them on or off-ball, and, in my viewings, he’s particularly adept at poking the ball away from the rear when opponents drive past him.
Among players grouped into the “Point of Attack” defensive role in Krishna Narsu’s defensive metrics, Melton ranks in the top 10 of D-PIPM, further supporting that he was among the league’s best on-ball defenders this season.
Melton’s anticipation on defense also carries over to blocking shots, where his length (6’8.5 wingspan) is an asset in erasing attempts. This ability allows him to make plays not just as a perimeter defender, but on the interior as well.
His effectiveness in generating both steals and blocks is unique in a player of his size. In fact, Melton and Eric Bledsoe are the only two players listed at 6’2 or shorter in NBA history to compile seasons with at least a 3% steal rate and a 1.5% block rate among players who played in at least 40 games.
Owing to his physical tools, instincts, and motor, Melton is able to play bigger than his listed height. According to Narsu’s data on defensive coverage possessions by position, Melton actually defended shooting guards about 44% of the time, his highest usage against any position, evidencing his capability to defend both guard spots.
This shows up in his rebounding as well, as he rebounds very well for a guard. He and Patrick Beverley were the only players 6’2 or shorter to post a total rebound percentage of at least 10% this season. For his position, Melton falls into the 86th and 87th percentiles in offensive and defensive rebounding rates, respectively.
In spite of his height, Melton spent almost 85 percent of his time on the court playing shooting guard. From there, playing next to another ball handler is where he’s most effective, supplying secondary playmaking, knocking down open shots off the catch, and attacking the basket.
Offensively, Melton is a work in progress, yet he posted the team’s best offensive rating among players who played at least 500 minutes, giving him two-way impact. His offensive role could be broadly described as a secondary creator, where he works alongside a primary and fills in gaps in playmaking as needed.
Although turnover prone, Melton is a pretty good passer overall and generally does a fine job of creating for others without dominating the ball. His assist to usage ratio ranks above average for his position at 0.97 and his averages in seconds per touch and dribbles per touch compare similarly with Lonzo Ball, another creator who doesn’t need much time on the ball.
At his best, Melton operates as a secondary offensive conduit, offering his offense the capability to reset possessions with him running pick and rolls, making quick passes to set up teammates, and scoring himself when needed. In essence, Melton allows a team to play with two point guards, gaining the offensive benefits of enhanced playmaking from two-PG lineups, but without the typical defensive trade-offs.
Where Melton must improve as a ball handler is limiting his turnovers, where he ranks in the 11th percentile. His penchant for turning the ball over plays a role in his poor pick and roll performance; he ranks in just the 15th percentile as a P&R ball handler and turns it over on 24% of these possessions, per Synergy.
He has a tendency to make mental lapses when he gets into the paint and his options aren’t clearly delineated. More problematic, 68% of his turnovers are live ball turnovers, which are particularly painful because they often lead to buckets on the other end. His 53 live ball turnovers easily paced Memphis, well ahead of Morant, who committed 27. Although he’s generally a good playmaker, Melton clearly must get better as a decision maker if he hopes to grow his on-ball usage.
As a scorer, Melton is most effective attacking the basket. He shot 57% around the basket on non-post attempts according to Synergy, ranking in the 68th percentile. More of his shots come at the rim than from any other area, perhaps another testament to his ability to play bigger than his size. He’s also skilled at drawing fouls, with a shooting fouled percentage (the percentage of shot attempts a player was fouled on) of almost 9%, good for 65th percentile among combo guards.
Offensively, the area where Melton will most need to improve to unlock his upside is his perimeter shooting. Only a 31.6% shooter from beyond the arc, he will need to get better here in order to optimize his minutes alongside a primary creator. However, looking into the numbers a little closer, there is reason for optimism.
Just a 28% shooter from long range in his lone season at USC (note: he was ineligible for his second season and sat out), Melton has improved his three-point percentage in each of his two professional seasons. Moreover, he shoots a solid 82% at the line, offering hope that he could continue to improve his perimeter shooting, given the relationship between free throw shooting and proficiency from deep.
Further, dive deeper into the stats, and one finds more reasons to be positive about his long term outlook as a shooter. On spot-up attempts which Synergy classifies as “no dribble” — essentially a proxy for open shooting attempts — Melton shot 18/45 (40%), falling into the 68th percentile. Not a huge volume of attempts, of course, but encouraging nonetheless.
Additionally, on catch and shoot attempts from distance, Melton shot 30/82 (36.6%) for the season. This certainly isn’t a notable mark, but it represents baseline proficiency. Synergy counts things a little differently, but he falls into the “average” category on catch and shoot attempts there. More or less, the point here is he’s at least capable of converting the open shots that are created for him at a passable rate.
DARKO, a new machine learning-driven projection system for basketball, at least broadly aligns with my view on Melton’s shooting, projecting his “true talent” as a shooter at around 33%, higher than his current percentage of just under 32%. Because DARKO’s projections change in real time, Melton’s “true talent” from deep could (and probably will) change. But overall, I think he’ll be adequate from distance; and given that his impact primarily comes from defense, “adequate” is basically all you need. He won’t be Kevin Huerter as a shooter, but he might be Eric Bledsoe.
Although only 24th percentile among combos in overall three-point volume for the season, Melton gradually began to increase his attempts. From Feb. 1 until the suspension of the season, 39% of shot attempts were threes, ranking a much-improved 48th percentile in three-point frequency, more along the lines of what you would like to see from a guard.
Playing next to Morant, the pairing had a net rating of +4.3 over 428 minutes per PBP Stats; with Morant off the floor, Melton had a net rating of +10.3 over 442 minutes. He was effective with or without Morant.
Melton’s cap implications are somewhat complicated, but Memphis cannot offer much more than about $9.5 million per year, via Early Bird Rights, depending on where the 2020-21 Salary Cap ends up. However, under the Arenas provision, which applies to restricted free agents who have only been in the league for one or two seasons, competing teams cannot offer a first-year salary more than the non-taxpayer MLE. To make a long story short, any team could offer a four-year deal that would make it painful for Memphis to match on the back end, and this would likely represent their best chance of stealing him.
Given that you generally have to overpay to land a coveted RFA, a team might consider offering something like four years and $50 million. With thanks to both PTH’s own salary cap guru Bob as well as PTH alum Jeff Siegel of Early Bird Rights, that deal would look like this — assuming current salary cap projections — on Memphis’ cap sheet, if they chose to match:
2020-21 - $9,755,000
2021-22 - $10,242,750
2022-23 - $14,671,027
2023-24 - $15,331,223
For more analysis, I’ve consulted the PIPM Career Projections Tool to try and get a rough idea of what Melton could bring to the table on his next deal.
With an important caveat that calibrating projections for a player with less than 2,000 career minutes played is inherently difficult, making this more of an additional data point rather than the crux of an argument, PIPM forecasts paints a rosy picture for Melton, projecting steady increases over the next four seasons. He ranked in the top 50 of PIPM this season, and with continued growth, he could be a steady fixture near the top of this metric. It’s also important to note that PIPM does not attempt to measure talent, but rather ballpark impact, which often goes hand in hand with role, and how effectively a player performs within it. In his current role, as a combo guard most effective next to a primary ball handler, Melton could continue to thrive.
To further emphasize how high PIPM is on Melton’s future, it projects a three-year value of $55 million, which would make the 4/$50m offer referenced above an excellent value, should the projections come close to their mark.
In theory, you’re not paying for what Melton is now, but rather what he could become after making a leap. So, while he might be “overpaid” along the contract parameters I’ve proposed based on what he is right now, the idea is he would grow into that, and perhaps even become a value on the back end of that deal.
For reference, I’ve provided a chart showing Multi-Year PIPM to provide a comparison for where Melton, Bledsoe, and Smart all fell at the same points in their careers. To be clear, I’m not outright comparing them as players, although I do think enough similarities exist for me to be comfortable using them together.
9/26/2020 2:55 AM LAST EDITED: 9/26/2020 3:00 AM