https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/johnske04.html

The 29th overall pick announced his arrival with averages of 14.1 points and 5.0 rebounds per game on 63.8% shooting over eight outings in the Orlando bubble, and he accumulated those numbers in just 26.1 minutes per game.

Outlook: Keldon Johnson projects to be the ideal 3&D player, which a lot of teams need in today’s league … He has the size and athleticism to guard 1-3s and even some small ball 4s. He needs to work on his confidence taking 3 pointers because that will open more opportunities for him to use his explosiveness at the rim. Willing to do the dirty work on both ends of the floor … He knows how to find the open spots on the floor off the ball…. He is also good at finding open shooters on the perimeter … He doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be a threat on the offensive end of the floor…… Has shown the desire to guard his man the full length of the court … His defensive impact doesn’t show up on the stat sheet … A winner. A natural leader with very good intangibles

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College Profile

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/06/18/keldon-johnson-scouting-report/

Jumper: Nothing mechanically wrong with his form. Might be a bit slow, but he can still get it off. Some issues getting it off cleanly on off the dribble jumpers, though. Really nice follow through and arc on the shot. C&S player right now but can run off screens a little. Does a nice job using the threat of a shot to get a better look – pump fake, one dribble pull-up, floater, or attacking the rim. Nice job curling off screens. Not someone who can break someone down 1 on 1 off the bounce and pull up for a jumper or get to the basket.

Shot Versatility: Has the ability to C&S and run off screens a bit. Smart running off screens (reads them and the defense well), but does not have a quick setup / release…nor does he run off screens quickly. Can pump fake and attack for a better jumper, floater, or a shot at the rim. Does not have the ability to isolate and pull up off the bounce – slower release hurts him here (also lack of great handle) – defenses close on his jumper off the bounce pretty quickly.

Shot IQ: Good shot IQ. He doesn’t take many stupid shots, though some of his floaters he should try to turn into true paint attempts at the rim and turn the corner a bit more (though he does not do a bad job getting to the line). He knows his role on offense and sticks to mostly C&S attempts (98/137 jumpers were C&S). Does a nice job running the defender off the screen and reading how his man is defending the screen to figure out which way he wants to go – flash or curl. Even when he’s chased off the line, although he showed the ability to fake and pull for a mini jumper, he really used the threat of the shot / his pump fake to set up drives to the basket. Is prone to forcing some floaters, though.

Finishing: Soft general touch around the rim, though he is very right hand dominant. Does not have much rise in the paint without a head of steam, but he has a pretty quick second and third jump (and has a decent nose for the ball on the offense glass on longer rebounds). Really nice touch on his runners (right hand). Can finish through contact, but it’s more with touch than strength. It looks like some of his attempts are just thrown up there hoping he hits, but he follows the ball and usually finishes on the second attempt (or gets fouled). Lack of rise in the paint led to many misses on the offensive glass, and he doesn’t have the best kick out feel on his second attempts. Sometimes reckless driving into the paint – does not see the help coming (or sees it too late) and ends up barreling into the defense.

Handle: Does not have an advanced handle – simple and methodical. Not strong with the ball in the paint – can get stripped or have the ball poked free. Straight line driver on his attacks to the rim and does not change direction very well or quickly. Utilizes hop steps well. Cannot use his handle to break down defenses to create shots for himself or others – limited in what he can do. Succumbs to pressure.

Passing: Cannot create for others / does not have a good passing feel. Really only showed the ability to pass in transition and make simple swing passes. Only ran the PnR 19 times this year, but showed a very limited feel there also. Put no pressure on the paint defense and almost always took the easy pass out to the perimeter. It’s not necessarily a bad thing that he took the easy pass out, but the lack of pressure makes him (and the team) easy to guard when he’s directing the PnR – should not be used as a secondary or tertiary creator. Needs to set feet on passes, so D&K and drop-offs are not really in his wheelhouse either. Had some D&Ks this year, but he did not look very comfortable when in the paint- succumbs to pressure. Had to set feet a lot before passing back out or inside, besides a few jump passes out.

General Notes: Johnson competes on defense, but he’s not a particularly skilled or toolsy defender. He’s not very quick, nor does he have good hips / hip turns. He uses longer steps to chase down players who beat him off the dribble, which happens more than it should…however, he does do a nice job taking the right angle to recover, also. He has roughly average wingspan for the 2, but I don’t think he has the quickness to stay with them. For the 3, which I believe would be his natural defending position, he’s below average in both wingspan and standing reach, but I don’t think his athleticism to match up with that position either full time. Not a playmaker on defense in terms of contesting shots around the rim, defensive versatility, or creating steals (or deflections, though his hands aren’t necessarily slow). Does a decent job staying in his stance most of the time (but he is too far upright), but his first instinct while moving laterally (or changing direction / flipping hips) is to take a mini step, which just slows him up…and for someone who is not quick enough to recover from that, this is a bad decision. Goes for too many fakes with handle and shot fakes. Does not get back in transition defense quickly – just jogs back.

Rim Protection: N/A. Will be heavily rotation based due to lack of two-footed pop. His length will help deter some, but I don’t project him to be a good wing rim protector due to athletic limitations.

Shot Contests: Not great getting out to the shooters – a bit slow there. Uses length decently well contesting, but that’s really it. Nice job contesting from behind on dribble Js and runners, but relies on help a lot to keep them away from the rim / make shots and angles to drive a bit more difficult.

Footwork: Not very quick and has somewhat “heavy” feet for a wing. Does not have great hips / hip turns, either – gave up a lot of drives to the rim on ISOs. Moves decent well, despite looking like he relaxes a bit too much / resting on his heels. Shows potential getting over screens in the PnR. Does not do a good job getting to the shooter. Decent job staying in his stance, but he is often too far upright…which is bad in general, but especially for someone who is not particularly quick laterally. First instinct when defending ISOs and he’s changing direction is to take a small step first and then explode – needs to stop doing this because it is only making him more inefficient. When he’s defending ISOs, he does a solid job recovering after being beat off the dribble, but he uses long steps to get back…also appears to know what angles to use to cut players off (or get back in play quicker), so that’s good too. Not quick chasing players around screens. Does NOT do a good job seeing his man and the ball running off screens – basically faceguards his man on baseline / floppy action. Poor job recognizing angles to take while running off screens. Spot ups are not good either, as he goes for fakes often.

Post Up: Could potentially switch onto some 4s because of his solid strength, but has a ways to go – needs to learn to be more physical and learn hand positioning. Nice job using his chest, but needs to learn how to effectively use his lower body strength more. He has a good base, but needs to learn to fully use it.

Awareness: Not a huge fan of his awareness – I don’t think he showed much. He ball does not do a good job of seeing his man and the ball off ball – for example, heavy man-watching when he’s defending someone who runs off screens…but when his man is sitting in the corner, he ball watches pretty hard. Does not like leaving his man to help; if he does help, it’s usually late. Often just hangs around not trying to affect the play at all, by standing in no-man’s land hands down, not doing anything. A few times this year he helped cover the weak side cut when Kentucky doubled the post, but did not make many rotations this year that popped.

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Pathway To Acquisition

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/san-antonio-spurs/cap/2020/

Rudy Gay: Two years, $32 million

For all intents and purposes, Spurs forward Rudy Gay earned his two-year, $32 million contract last season. Having recovered from a torn Achilles tendon in San Antonio, Gay stepped up to the plate last season by shooting career-highs from the field (50.4%) and three-point range (40.2%) in the most efficient year of his career.

Now that he got his payday, Gay fell back to Earth in this 2019-20 campaign that’s seen him shoot his lowest percentage from the field since the 2012-13 season and the same lowly three-point percentage he shot the year before last.

I’m not sure what’s changed for Gay because he has completely lost a step, but remains an effective scorer from within 20 feet who uses post-ups and crossover moves to create his own shot. He’s a skilled bench scorer who provides buckets in bursts and still erupts with a thunderous slam or two when he sees fit, but he’s not playing up to the contract San Antonio gave him this past summer.

The risk level on this deal is relatively low considering there’s only one year left. Furthermore, the team is slated to open up a world of cap space in a 2021 free agency class that’s jam-packed with star talent. Holding on to Gay through the duration of that deal and opening up his cap space in 2021 wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world despite him being vastly overpaid through the end of next season.

Again, this is a case of the loyalty contract not really being worth the price tag but still being given.

Patty Mills: Two years, $25.7 million

Originally, the Spurs signed veteran point guard Patty Mills to a four-year, $48 million contract back in 2017 to make him one of the highest-paid players on the team. Since then he’s gotten even better with improved confidence as a shooter, playmaker and leader off the bench.

Mills is an extremely valuable player for the Spurs because of his community involvement, championship experience, on-court leadership and guiding voice in the locker room. However, he’s way overpaid for who he is as a player and unless he can take another step at 32-years-old, it’ll get even worse next season when his salary increases to roughly $13.3 million.

5. The Nikola Milutinov Situation

While the Spurs 2015 offseason was highly successful, there was a misstep that occurred before free agency even began. The Spurs drafted Nikola Milutinov with the 26th pick in the draft. Five seasons later, he has yet to play a game for the Spurs.

It’s clear that Milutinov was partly selected because he was willing to stay overseas for at least a season, as the goal for that offseason was to preserve cap space in order to sign LaMarcus Aldridge to a max contract.

The salary cap rose several million more than the initial projections, however. It was indeed possible that both Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard and the salary of the 26th pick would’ve fit under the salary cap. Players such as Larry Nance Jr, Kevon Looney, Montrezl Harrell and Josh Richardson were available had the front office decided against the draft-and-stash route.

Milutinov is nearly 25 and in the final season of his contract with Olympiacos. He’s turned into a solid center, averaging 11.1 points and 9.3 rebounds in 26.3 minutes per game in EuroLeague.

Should he finally join the Spurs next season, he will no longer bound to the rookie scale salary structure. That means that Milutinov could ask for significantly more than what most centers are worth in the NBA. As he’s become a top player in Europe, there’s little incentive for him to come over if the Spurs don’t offer a competitive salary.

fwk00 wrote:So what is the trade?

DeRozan has a 28 million player option. Without the pandemic, maybe he would have opted out and tested the market, more likely he is going to take option.

Spurs want to tank for 2021 draft. They'll have massive cap space then to chase Greek Freak and another street max contract to go with this years pick, Lonnie Walker and the 21 pick. They want to dump contracts to improve their tanking hopes.

Milutinov is with CSKA Moscow until age 28.

DeRozan and Rudy Gay (16 million) are far better than what the Knicks could sign in Tier 4 of free agency. It may be far better than the Chris Paul/Conley rumblings. A sign and trade would mean the Knicks would have to give DeRozan a three year deal, so better to just trade for the one year and see how it goes. DeRozan, Gay, Keldon Johnson would all be instant starters along with MRob and RJ Barrett. It's not perfect. Shooting would still be problematic but less so than before. Team defense would be a bit of an adventure but it can't be that much worse than before. Might be good for Barrett, MRob and this years #8 to be around a couple of established veterans.

Milutinov might be someone the Spurs want to try to make a run at ( though buying him out of his CSKA contract might be too much for them now) or they can toss him into the trade.

The West looks loaded so the Spurs have no reason to treadmill it. Given the players would move East/West, that's more of an ideal for San Antonio to do a contract dump.

I like Keldon Johnson a lot. Maybe the Knicks can get Johnson, Milutinov and something else moderate to eat that much money.

If it doesn't work out, DeRozan and Gay can keep moving. Since DeRozan will come with full Bird Rights, maybe the Knicks can do a light sign and trade with him if the market shrinks his AAV enough. Maybe DeRozan and/or Gay work out enough to stay for much cheaper after the year.

I'm looking for win/win trade scenarios.

TripleThreat wrote:

fwk00 wrote:So what is the trade?

DeRozan has a 28 million player option. Without the pandemic, maybe he would have opted out and tested the market, more likely he is going to take option.

Spurs want to tank for 2021 draft. They'll have massive cap space then to chase Greek Freak and another street max contract to go with this years pick, Lonnie Walker and the 21 pick. They want to dump contracts to improve their tanking hopes.

Milutinov is with CSKA Moscow until age 28.

DeRozan and Rudy Gay (16 million) are far better than what the Knicks could sign in Tier 4 of free agency. It may be far better than the Chris Paul/Conley rumblings. A sign and trade would mean the Knicks would have to give DeRozan a three year deal, so better to just trade for the one year and see how it goes. DeRozan, Gay, Keldon Johnson would all be instant starters along with MRob and RJ Barrett. It's not perfect. Shooting would still be problematic but less so than before. Team defense would be a bit of an adventure but it can't be that much worse than before. Might be good for Barrett, MRob and this years #8 to be around a couple of established veterans.

Milutinov might be someone the Spurs want to try to make a run at ( though buying him out of his CSKA contract might be too much for them now) or they can toss him into the trade.

The West looks loaded so the Spurs have no reason to treadmill it. Given the players would move East/West, that's more of an ideal for San Antonio to do a contract dump.

I like Keldon Johnson a lot. Maybe the Knicks can get Johnson, Milutinov and something else moderate to eat that much money.

If it doesn't work out, DeRozan and Gay can keep moving. Since DeRozan will come with full Bird Rights, maybe the Knicks can do a light sign and trade with him if the market shrinks his AAV enough. Maybe DeRozan and/or Gay work out enough to stay for much cheaper after the year.

I'm looking for win/win trade scenarios.

What will the knicks give up in any of these scenario? Are they expected to give the rest of the youth outside mitch and RJ? Who will be left in the team?

houston20 wrote:The knicks haven't done a spurs trade since 2005 nazr mohmmamed for malik rose its been 15 years and pop doesn't like the knicks management or ownership.

The Knicks and Spurs are not direct rivals, this is not like the Spurs are helping out a West coast contender. Good GMs never think in terms of "I don't like knicks management or ownership so I won't deal with them", they think in terms of "how does this benefit me the most"

Jimbo5 wrote:What will the knicks give up in any of these scenario? Are they expected to give the rest of the youth outside mitch and RJ? Who will be left in the team?

Bobby Portis

Portis has a team option for 15.8

Taj Gibson
Wayne Ellington
Elfrid Payton
Reggie Bullock

These four can all be bought out for 1 million each.

The Spurs would take in enough to offset some salary while giving them the largest trade exception possible based on the Knicks open cap space. A team like the Knicks has zero reason to go over the salary floor.

Rough math in my head, Knicks would need to send 11-15 million in salary in return. So, in theory, something like Bobby Portis. Who the Spurs can cut immediately and save all that money. The Knicks could send a combination of Payton/Ellington but it's hard to see the Spurs keeping them or spending 2 million to dump them when they could just do a Portis dump.

For optics, the Spurs might ask for Knox. They like Euros so they may ask for Iggy Braz. They may ask for Dotson. Also for the optics, there might be a 2nd round pick flip in a future year. (Spurs send their 2nd, likely to be a bit lower, Knicks send their 2nd, likely to be higher, at the same time during the same future year)

Thibs will want to keep MRob, Barrett and Frank N and all the draft picks. Everyone else is pretty much expendable.

Spurs would probably prefer to dump LMA first, but he's more likely a candidate to be bought out and ring chase. They would also like to dump Patty Mills but he's got certain intangibles that Pop would want even on a tanking team.

Pop is going to try to win every game. So the Spurs are better off doing an organic dump and an organic tank. Pop also has a huge ego, so nothing will please him more, in a season where he won't win anyway to have the media kiss his ass to say look how strong the Spurs are playing with only G Leaguers and fringe guys.

Dumping salary now allows the Spurs to carve out a little cap space to rent out for an unpleasant contract for another young/draft asset.

Hitting on their pick this year, Lonnie Walker emerging a little, a very high 21 pick is the best way to attract two street max guys for 21-22.

It's a starting point, put it that way. A trade with the Spurs might hold some promise. Tony Parker was a CAA guy so RC Buford and Leon Rose are not strangers.

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Two offseasons ago, in late 2020, I wanted the Knicks to try to trade for two players just exiting their rookie seasons. The first was Jordan Poole of the Warriors. The second was Keldon Johnson, now an Olympian. I also said the Knicks should consider looking at DeRozan in trade at the same time to see if the Spurs would be looking to offload his salary for something, i.e. trade him for something rather than lose him in FA for nothing.

I still believe Keldon Johnson would be an interesting trade target depending on if the Knicks can into a large 3-4 team trade this offseason and somehow pry him loose. Would have been cheaper in 2020 to get him for sure, but maybe there is still a pathway for the future.