https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithde03.html
Some predraft thoughts on DSJr revisited.
Smith’s talent is undeniable, and he is definitely a good prospect. But he also has some flaws that make me skeptical of his ability to become great.DSJ’s profile is rife with flaws:
–He has average height and short arms for a PG
–He projects to be poor defensively
–His game is not smooth and lacks polish
–He is not the best floor general. He makes questionable decisions and his passes are often inaccurate
–His motor and toughness are questionable
These weaknesses are not trivial. They are all concerning on their own, and taken in tandem there are some heavy flags weighing down his goodness. This is not the profile of a player on the path to NBA stardom, but one of an enigmatic talent who will be wildly hit or miss as a pro.
T-Rex Woes
Smith measured 6’1.5 with a 6’3″ wingspan in 2014. He is currently listed at 6’3″ and should have at least a 6’4″ wingspan by draft time, but that pales in comparison to most of the freaky PG’s like Westbrook (6’7.75″) Rose (6’8″) and Wall (6’9.25″). This detracts from his athleticism, and overall his physical profile is (surprise) good but not great.
This is problematic on both ends. Defensively, he will not have the reach to effectively contest shots for anybody but small point guards. This issue becomes magnified as NBA teams employ defensive schemes that entail heavy switching with increasing frequency. Kyrie Irving has nearly identical dimensions (6’3.5″ height 6’4″ wingspan) and is one of the worst defensive starting point guards in the NBA in large part due to his poor reach. Kyrie is also lazy and over gambles on defense, but the same could be said for Smith.
This is also problematic on offense, as his short arms make it difficult to finish in traffic. Kyrie makes his defense worth stomaching with his elite shooting and finishing, as his incredible body control and coordination gives him a unique ability to make tough, off balance shots. Smith does not have this superpower, which makes his short arms a greater obstacle to overcome.
Passing
Passing is slippery to quantify, as not all assists are created equally and passes that are not assists matter too. Smith has a high assist rate, which is a good start for his passing upside. But the truly great passers make a big positive impact on their teammates, which intuitively makes sense since that is the whole point of passing.
This aligns with my eye test, as Lonzo crisply moves the ball, makes great decisions, and delivers passes with pinpoint precision. Meanwhile DSJ over-dribbles, makes questionable decisions, and blows a fair amount of assist opportunities by delivering passes off the mark.
Smith’s vision seems good enough and it is plausible that he will eventually develop into a good passer. His athleticism and handling ability gives him the capacity to take advantage of this skill if he ever develops it. But the best predictor of future passing ability is current passing ability, and right now Smith is merely average.
Conclusion
Smith is still a good prospect, as he has the skill and his athleticism cannot be overlooked. He is already a good NCAA player, and if he develops his game at a good rate he will become a good NBA player. But he does not have the skill or smarts to be a naturally elite floor general, and he does not have the reach or motor to use his athleticism to physically dominate. These are significant problems, and they will preclude him from becoming the transcendent star that teams are seeking with a top 3 pick.
“The Knicks passed on a really good one, and Dallas got the diamond in the rough,” LeBron James said after a game against Dallas in November 2017. “He should be a Knick. That’s going to make some headlines, but he should be a Knick. Dallas is definitely, I know they’re excited that he didn’t go there.”Smith Jr. had a successful rookie season, averaging 15.2 points and 5.2 assists per game. As expected, he had some jaw-dropping highlights, but struggled shooting the ball – posting a field goal percentage of 39.5 percent. Still, the future looked bright.
Smith Jr. continued his fairly strong play in New York for the remainder of last season. In 21 games with the Knicks, he averaged 14.7 points and 5.4 assists in 28.6 minutes per game after seeing dips in points (12.9) and assists (4.3) with Dallas. The key takeaway for the Knicks pertaining to Smith Jr. was that he showed promise. Still, there was enough doubt that the Knicks signed free agent point guard Elfrid Payton.
Then-head coach David Fizdale spoke highly of Smith Jr.’s performances in training camp, but the third-year guard’s back injury flared up, causing him to miss seven consecutive games after struggling in the first three games of the season.
But Smith Jr.’s role remained unclear after he returned. On the whole, 2019-20 has been tough on him. He is posting only 5.5 points and 3 assists per game, and he’s shooting only 34 percent from the field and 29.6 percent on three-pointers. But most alarmingly, he’s really struggled to secure playing time.
February has been Smith Jr.’s most successful month so far this season; he’s averaging 6.6 points in 17.9 minutes per game – a far cry what was expected of him just a few years ago. And previous months were just more of the same. Smith Jr. averaged only 5 points in 10.4 minutes per game in January, 5.3 points in 17 minutes in December, 6.4 points in 17.8 minutes in November and only 1 point in 8.7 minutes in October.
What are your thoughts on DSJr's future with this team? Thoughts?
****
10/10/2020 Edit:
https://watchstadium.com/eye-test-vs-analytics-the-dennis-smith-jr-conundrum-11-13-2018/
NBA November 13,2018 Eye Test vs. Analytics: The Dennis Smith Jr. Conundrum
Chinmay Vaidya by Chinmay Vaidya
As part of their rebuilding effort, the Dallas Mavericks used a lottery selection last year on guard Dennis Smith Jr., who ended up being named to the All-Rookie second team. Dallas followed that move up by making a trade in the 2018 NBA Draft to grab highly touted guard Luka Doncic.
The team appeared to have its backcourt of the future in place.
And when you look at Smith Jr.’s raw numbers through 12 games this year, it’s easy to understand the optimism.
Year Points Per Game FG % 3-Point %
2017-18 15.2 39.5 31.3
2018-19 15.2 44.9 39.1
The most notable change is from behind the arc. Smith Jr. was a 36 percent 3-point shooter in college, and if that ability translates to the NBA, he could develop into a deadly all-around scorer. After a rough rookie season from deep, Smith Jr. is converting on more opportunities this year.
“Just working on my mechanics,” Smith Jr. said on his improved stroke from 3-point range. “I’m really getting a lot more spot shots [and] shots off the ball. I’ve been working on that a lot so it’s translating to the game right now.”
DENNIS SMITH JR. DRIBBLES BEFORE SHOT: (via NBA.com/stats)
Dribbles Before Shot 2017-18 Frequency 2018-19 Frequency
0 18.7% 23.4%
1 7.0% 11.0%
2 9.7% 14.9%
3-6 34.4% 26.6%
7+ 30.1% 24.0%
Smith has continued to get shots at the rim and in the paint, but he is getting more catch-and-shoot and spot-up shots this season. Among rookie and second-year point guards, Smith Jr. is third in both points per game and 3-point percentage. Last season, 58.5 percent of his 3-point makes were assisted.
This year, that number is up to 77.8 percent.
However, analytics appear to muddle Smith Jr.’s hot start and his long-term fit with Doncic. As NBA front offices continue to use analytics and advanced data to drive decisions, Smith Jr. is the latest player where the eye test doesn’t fit with the analytics.
Amazingly, Smith Jr.’s raw numbers are worse in wins than in losses this season. This is rare for most players that get consistent minutes, especially starters.
Statistics Through Nov. 13 Points FG % 3-Point %
Smith Jr. in Wins 13.2 40.7 31.8
Smith Jr. in Losses 16.6 47.4 45.8
The advanced data isn’t much better. According to NBA.com/stats, the Mavericks have three five-man lineups that have played at least 48 minutes together this season. Smith Jr. is featured in all of those lineups, but only one has a positive net rating at 0.2.
While Harrison Barnes might be complicit in this metric (he’s not in this lineup, but is part of the other two), Smith Jr. is a significant component as well. His on-court/off-court splits, according to basketball-reference.com, are telling.
Statistics Through Nov. 13 Offensive Rating Defensive Rating
Smith Jr. On the Court 108.0 117.3
Smith Jr. Off the Court 116.3 111.0
Smith Jr. has boosted Dallas’ offensive rating when he’s on the court this year from last season, but the Mavericks are still more efficient with him off the floor. Defensively, Smith Jr. has continued to struggle.
But this isn’t the biggest question that Dallas faces when evaluating its young guard…
The Mavericks have invested heavily in Doncic and Smith Jr. as a backcourt pairing. They’ve spent two lottery selections to acquire the guards and even traded a future first-round pick for Doncic. There is a lot riding on these two guys and the early results have not been promising.
According to NBA.com/stats, Doncic and Smith Jr. have a -10.6 net rating in 315 minutes together this year.
“I’ve moved more so to playing off the ball and spot shots,” Smith Jr. said on his fit with Doncic. “Just figuring out my role. [We] should play well off each other.”
There are some important caveats with Doncic and Smith Jr. fitting together. Both players have struggled with turnovers, which is expected. Through 12 games, Doncic has a 1.07:1 assist to turnover ratio, while Smith Jr. sports a 1.15:1 mark. This limits their offensive numbers despite outstanding shooting percentages.
The biggest thing about trying to salvage DSJr's basketball career is looking at what are the fewest adjustments one can make, given what he's already shown, that will garner the most opportunity for exponential returns so he can become at least a replacement level player.
For example, he really doesn't do a good job finishing around the rim through contact and he doesn't do a great job drawing contact and he doesn't do much at the free throw line when he does get contact called. So spending 80 percent of his time and energy and focus here is doing to be a lot of time/sweat equity for what is likely to be a very small return.
A) What can Smith do right now, given what he's shown so far, as an individual player, to improve his chances to stick on an NBA roster as a role player? (i.e. a player must have agency in his own career path/fate)
The first thing Smith can do and something he can control is to get into elite shape. That's within his power and there is no reason he shouldn't be able to outwork and out hustle every last person on the court. The lethargy and indifference is not acceptable. If you are going to succeed or fail, then do everything hard. If you are going to fail, then fail with your foot jammed down on the accelerator.
B) What can the Knicks do off the court (coaching, medical, analytics, etc) to help DSJr reach replacement level value?
They can sequester him. Tell him he has to live at the training facility. Assign a rotation of coaches to him so that all aspects of his daily routine are managed. Get him on a functional schedule and break down his day into productive increments. I would also sign Andre Roberson as a free agent and have him come in and help this team build a defensive identity.
C) What can the Knicks do scheme wise on the court, based on what Smith has shown so far, to help him reach replacement level value and help push him towards a functional long term role to stick on an NBA roster?
Smith can't defend the rim. He can't really create his own shot. He has limitations as a shooter. His shot honestly looked completely broken. His career could be over soon but he may have ended Keith Smart's career forever. He's done well in the past with catch and shoot and spot up opportunities. He has no business shooting off the dribble.
When he shows discipline and true effort, he's shown potential as an on ball defender. That's his bread and butter zone right now. Focus 80 percent of his effort on being the best defender possible. This is where his speed and athleticism can help him. He doesn't have great length ( non plus wingspan/ 6'3) but a lot of defense comes down to effort, grind and sheer will power. If he wants to stay in the league, give everything he has towards a goal of being a lock down perimeter defender. This shades away from all his offensive limitations and gives him something to build a foundation of his player identity. Make it his primary focus and drive to shut down the opponents best offensive player every single night.
Offensively? Shrink the court for him. Outside of incidental free throws ( that should be an adventure...) and transition opportunities, he should never shoot inside the arc. His play zone should be three point line to three point line. He should also never shoot the first FGA in any possession outside of transition opportunities. He needs to work off ball to get his shots. He's shown with Doncic that he can be a decent catch and shoot guy and can do enough with clean open looks to give you some offense there. If he wants more shots, he's going to have to work for them off ball. You also don't want him clogging the floor spacing for MRob, Randle and Barrett.
If ( big ass If) and when he shows progress, then one can unhook the leash a little and give him some more opportunities to get to the rim. But given his shaky handle and his problem with ball security, he just seems better suited not to be the primary ball handler.
DSJr has zero trade value. He only exists on the Knicks roster now because the Knicks needed some optics on the trade ( taking in at least one rookie with the perception of potential), his contract ballast for salary matching and his guaranteed money. If any team did ask about DSJr, it was because they were looking to shed a bad contract on the Knicks and they needed salary matching. If you give anyone enough minutes, starts and a green light, they will generate counting stats, it doesn't mean it was done efficiently and it doesn't mean to ignore context. If Rick Carlisle thinks he can't be fixed, then I believe him.
But he's a Knick and we all want him to succeed if he's going to be here, to whatever limits that are actually and practically possible. What I stated above is his best pathway.
Elfrid Payton was the best point guard on the Knicks last year by nearly every metric. He started the season hurt, but by the end of the year he averaged 10 points per game. With Marcus Morris no longer on the roster, it was the fourth-highest total on the team behind Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Bobby Portis.Payton led the team in assists at 7.2 per game and 9.4 per 36 minutes thanks to his ability to penetrate and dish. He only averaged 2.1 turnovers per game. Throw in his 4.7 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game and it paints the picture of a complete player.
Payton had the team’s second best Net Rating (plus/minus per 100 possessions) per 100 possessions after Mitchell Robinson. The team was 5.5 points better per 100 possessions when Payton was on the court versus when he was on the bench. The Knicks won more games because Payton was on the team.
That doesn’t mean Payton is the answer for the future. He might have been the best option on the team but that doesn’t make him a quality NBA starter at point guard. It starts with his shooting, where he finished the year .439/.203/.570. It’s nearly impossible to be a starting NBA point guard with those poor shooting numbers.
Payton’s shot is broken.He has played six years in the league and is 26 years old. He has never shot better than 33% from behind the three point line in any of his NBA seasons. His shot is flat and form is unorthodox. There’s very little chance it gets better.
Defensively, Payton is good as a ball hawk, and gets his hands into passing lanes and takes chances to accumulate steals. The problem is that too often those risks backfire and turn into easy baskets. Off the ball, he too often loses his man that gets a wide open look. The consistency on every possession isn’t there.
Offensively, Payton gets a lot of his stats by holding the ball too long and overdribbling. Too often he seemed to only have eyes for Julius Randle. His lack of shooting makes it impossible to spread the floor.
Payton is a solid backup, but nothing more than that. The Knicks have him under contract for $8 million dollars next season, but only $1 million of it is guaranteed. If the Knicks draft a point guard or go after an upgrade in free agency such as Fred Van Vleet, Payton is unlikely to return.
Dennis Smith Jr., the primary player acquired in the Kristaps Porzingis trade last season, was a disaster. It is nearly impossible to overstate how poorly he played. He might have been the worst player in the NBA last season. Just three seasons after being the ninth overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, his NBA career is in serious peril.
Due to a combination of personal tragedy, injuries and poor play, he only averaged 15.8 minutes in his 34 games played. He averaged only 5.5 points per game and had a putrid 2.9/1.7 assist to turnover ratio. After an offseason where it was widely circulated that he fixed his jump shot, he shot only 34% from the field, 29.6% from behind the three point line, and 50.9% from the free throw line. Every single one of those numbers were career lows.
Smith also had the worst Net Rating on the Knicks, and one of the worst in the entire NBA at -17.1. The team was an amazing 13 points better per 100 possessions better when he was on the bench. There was virtually nothing redeemable about his third season as a pro.
The Knicks were the sixth worst team in the NBA this year. And somehow they were 14.8 points worse when Smith was on the floor.
The Knicks have several areas in need of improvement this offseason, with some in the franchise believing that acquiring a lead guard who creates shots should be a top priority for the team, Ian Begley of SNY writes.Other focal points (prior to Leon Rose being hired) included finding a big man who can spread the floor, Begley notes, adding that one opposing executive in contact with New York said part of their offseason thinking will be finding players who compliment RJ Barrett.
“If you want to complement Barrett, that’s where I’d go,” the executive said. “Adding (a guard and big man who can shoot from the perimeter), you space the floor and make things easier for him. The floor was so crowded for them this year.”
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2019/11/14/20964601/new-york-knicks-steve-mills-julius-randle-marcus-morris-offseason-free-agency
So far, Randle has imported all of his bad habits and none of the shot-making he displayed in New Orleans. He catches the ball and holds it, triple-threating any potential opportunity away to scan a defense that should’ve already been tilted for him. Even on TV, you can feel the energy sucked out of the other four Knicks players as they stand helplessly waiting for Randle to make a play. No big man in the league averages more seconds or dribbles per touch.What do the Knicks get from all that standing around? Usually, those plays are multiple-dribble moves into traffic that fail to work out.’
Or, contested three-pointers that never seem to go in. (Randle is shooting 21 percent on three-and-a-half three-point attempts a game. You’re open for a reason, my man).
Randle is a powerful driver at his best and completes enough of those plays to make you think he’s a force of nature. However, all the starting and stopping he does negates that power.
A more decisive version of Randle should be able execute a quality dribble-handoff, using screening angles that takes his partner’s defender out of the play and reacting from there. But Randle instead plays far too upright, so he fails to make contact on screens he sets. Poor screening means no separation for him or his teammates, which further kills the flow of the offense and/or sets him up for another one of those battering-ram drives into traffic.
Theoretically, Randle’s speed and strength can be weapons he deploys in conjunction with non-stop movement. In reality, though, Randle only activates the engine when he gets the ball, and by then it’s too late to create anything efficient for himself or a teammate.
Any offense with this type of player using the most possessions is committing a basketball crime. The Knicks’ half-court offense is averaging just 81.4 points per 100 possessions through the first 11 games this season, according to Cleaning The Glass. The gap between them and the second-worst half-court offense is wider than the gap between second-worst and 10th-worst. In fact, no team has been below 82 points per 100 possessions on half-court possessions since the Process era 76ers of 2014-15.
Worse, half-court plays account for nearly 78 percent of the Knicks’ possessions, third-highest in the league.
A more consistent player running the show would mercifully take the ball out of Randle’s hands, where it’s been far too often given the results to this point. The power forward, who joined New York as the club’s biggest free-agent signing this past summer, generally makes something happen. But he forces the action a lot more than he should, dribbling right into the teeth of the defense. Defenders know they can take capitalize on his loose handle in the paint, and Randle turns the ball over more frequently — and scores less frequently — on his isolations than any player who goes 1-on-1 at least three times per game, according to Synergy Sports.
But even though Randle is an undersized, inefficient scorer who vacuums shots away from teammates and won’t set a screen or space the floor to help someone else thrive, the Knicks’ on-court issues can’t be laid at his feet. That’s because all of Randle’s worst instincts are compounded by the rest of the roster.
Frank Ntilikina is a better off-ball player and seems to have more confidence after a summer in France. But opponents still help off him when he doesn’t have the ball, which is often because the Knicks have so many other mouths to feed.
That includes R.J. Barrett, the Knicks’ prized rookie who must feel like he’s playing against 10 defenders whenever he touches the ball. Barrett’s a tough driver and has flashed more of a three-point shot off the dribble than I expected, but it’s hard to generate good looks when the floor looks like this on his pick-and-rolls:
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Here’s another way to look at it. Let’s consider a player a 3-point threat if he shot at least 33.3% on 3s and took at least one 3 for every 20 minutes he was on the court. In the 2014-15 season, NBA lineups had anywhere from zero to four 3-point threats on the court at a time. The following chart shows the number of help defenders (defenders besides the on-the-ball defender) that lineups typically faced while attempting to penetrate. We see that with each additional 3-point threat in the lineup, the group faced less help defense on penetration, and their offensive rating (ORtg) improved. (ORtg is points scored per 100 possessions.)

Only one player can have the ball at a time. For offenses to run optimally, players need to provide value off-the-ball. The easiest way to do this is to space good shooters in the corners and on the weak side.
Offensive and Defensive Ratings (Net Rating) - What Do They Tell Us?In the world of advanced basketball analytics, offensive and defensive ratings are used as a way to track and compare how an individual player affects his or her team's performance. At a basic level, the offensive rating of a player represents how many points a team scores when that player is on the court and the defensive rating for how many points they allow. The two combined (offense-defense) are referred to as the net rating often times written as NETRTG.
Net rating is the offensive rating minus the defensive rating, but simply put it can be defined as how much better or worse the team is when a specific player is on the court. These ratings are usually on a per X possessions basis. Using possessions rather than minutes eliminates the effects of a team that plays very fast or very slow.
https://www.pivotanalysis.com/post/net-rating
https://stats.nba.com/player/1628372/advanced/
Dennis Smith Jr
Overall 2019-20 Net Rating -17.1
Home Games -11.2
Road Games -23.6
Pre All Star -15.8
Post All Star -25.9
Starter -29.2
Bench -14.9
Zero Days Rest -31.0
Two Days Rest -9.9
Wins 2.4
Losses -24.1
Overall 2018-19
Overall 2018-19 Net Rating -5.3
Home Games -3.2
Road Games -7.5
Pre All Star -5.3
Post All Star -5.3
Starter -5.1
Bench -8.0
Zero Days Rest -8.4
Two Days Rest -3.0
Wins 5.2
Losses -12.1
Overall 2017-18
Overall 2017-18 Net Rating -7.6
Home Games -5.0
Road Games -10.4
Pre All Star -9.1
Post All Star -3.9
Starter -7.6
Bench Null
Zero Days Rest -7.7
Two Days Rest -3.2
Wins 7.2
Losses -14.2
Spotrac does a valuation of players based on their production against their cost
NBA 2019 Value RankingsAn up-to-date look at the value rankings of all active NBA players based on a mathematical comparison of their current salary against their cumulative "production points".
More specifically, our Value Ratings are generated by compiling the current statistics for each player, then comparing them against all other players of that position (minimum 35% games played, minimum 7 minutes per game). From there, we compare that player's current salary against the average salary for players of that position. The difference in statistical production plus the difference in financial compensation determines a player's current value rating.
Last Updated: Aug 24, 2020
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/valuation/guard/
Dennis Smith Jr is 137 out of 168
Below him are overpaid vested veterans, chronically injured players, players in their first year of play (usually non lottery picks making far less AAV than Smith) and a few journeymen looking to hit the tenure mark to get their NBA pension.

There are clear reasons why I've said DSJr should be refocused on becoming a defensive stopper at all costs and live behind both arcs.

Dennis Smith Jr. only averaged 15.8 minutes in his 34 games played. He averaged only 5.5 points per game and had a putrid 2.9/1.7 assist to turnover ratio. After an offseason where it was widely circulated that he fixed his jump shot, he shot only 34% from the field, 29.6% from behind the three point line, and 50.9% from the free throw line. Every single one of those numbers were career lows.Smith also had the worst Net Rating on the Knicks, and one of the worst in the entire NBA at -17.1. The team was an amazing 13 points better per 100 possessions better when he was on the bench.
New York is allowing 119 points per 100 possessions in the 26 minutes Dennis Smith Jr. has logged this season.
Somehow, the numbers are worse offensively. NY is scoring just 74.1 points per 100 possessions with DSJ on the court.
That’s a mind-bogglingly bad Net Rating of -44.8
The Dallas Mavericks have been plagued with recent rumors regarding second-year point guard Dennis Smith Jr., who has reportedly been on the trade block after proving to be a poor fit next to rookie phenom Luka Doncic. Smith allegedly has had an ongoing rift with head coach Rick Carlisle, one that has been viewed as palpable by those around the organization.ESPN’s Tim MacMahon explained the situation as a guest of The Hoop Collective, noting that Smith’s relationship with Carlisle has been awkward for a while now. While the coach could potentially mend fences with his point guard if he isn’t traded, Smith might not do the same.
Via Sporting Dallas Forth Worth:
“DSJ last year put up okay numbers, not efficient, but the numbers were inflated by garbage time. And that, honestly, just killed Rick… it felt like all it’s doing is reinforcing terrible habits,” said MacMahon. “It’s been awkward between those two for a good year now, at least.”
“There might be a situation where DSJ and Carlisle have to shake hands and move on, at least for the rest of the season… I do believe that Rick would be willing to do that. I don’t know, at this point, and honestly the communication from his camp has been nonexistent.”
“It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one.” —George Washington
“The trouble with excuses is that they become inevitably difficult to believe after they’ve been used a couple of times.” ―Scott Spencer
“Difficulty is the excuse history never accepts.” ―Edward R. Murrow
“Hold yourself responsible for a higher standard than anyone else expects of you. Never excuse yourself.” ―Henry Ward Beecher
“Never make excuses. Your friends don’t need them and your foes won’t believe them.” ―John Wooden