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Knicks Draft 2020: The Case for Patrick Williams or Jalen Smith


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smackeddog
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I'll be honest, I know next to nothing about these two players other than they've suddenly started rising to the top 10 in some mocks, and gathering some buzz. From what I can gather they're seen as sleepers who could turn out to be the best players drafted. No idea how true! Anyone help fill us in?

Patrick Williams is a PF, with quads like Zion's (so said a podcast)

“As a freshman at Florida State last season, Patrick Williams’ numbers weren’t eye-popping — he was just a high-level role player who did a lot of things well without much fanfare. But scouts I’ve talked to rave about him and his NBA potential because of his size (6-8), wingspan (6-11) and defensive playmaking potential. Wings with his skill and feel don’t come around often. He’s a raw product offensively and there’s physical development that may be needed before he reaches his potential, but teams see in him a role player in the NBA like he was in college, and that’s a perfect fit in New Orleans with a star like Zion Williamson already in place.”

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2020-nba-mock-draft-james-wiseman-moves-up-to-no-2-behind-no-1-lamelo-ball-in-pre-lottery-projection/

Jalen Smith is a C/PF who can play defense and shoot:


The Thunder have a big man to build around with Steven Adams, but Jalen Smith's ability to knock down 3-pointers and block shots would give OKC a change of pace big who could be equally effective in a smaller role. His value lies in being a reliable floor-spacer and opening up the offense.


https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2020-nba-mock-draft-james-wiseman-moves-up-to-no-2-behind-no-1-lamelo-ball-in-pre-lottery-projection/


Two years ago, Bruno Fernando averaged 13.6 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game as a sophomore at Maryland. He was the focal point inside for the Terrapins, and teams had to do whatever they could to stop him. However, game-planning specifically for Fernando often meant neglecting Jalen Smith, who averaged 11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game that season. And truth be told, it was Smith that always looked like the superior NBA prospect, despite being younger and underutilized.

With Fernando having moved on to life with the Atlanta Hawks, Smith ended up averaging 15.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game in his sophomore season at Maryland. “Stix” shot 53.8 percent from the floor and 36.8 percent from the outside, and he played a big part in Maryland clinching a share of the Big Ten regular-season title. The Terps went 24-7 on the year, which included a 14-6 record in conference play, and Smith made the decision to enter the 2020 NBA draft.

It’s tough to pinpoint where Smith will go in the draft, but he is undoubtedly a first-round talent. While the NBA isn’t as big-man friendly as it once was, Smith boasts the type of skill set that teams should fall in love with.

Smith’s ability to shoot the ball at his size is the most impressive thing he has going for him heading into the draft. Not only did he shoot nearly 37 percent from deep, but he was also in in the 68th percentile at knocking down triples in half-court situations. He generated 1.063 points per possession on those plays, which is good for any player, let alone one that will likely be playing the center position at the next level. Those numbers were even better when Smith was left unguarded, where he put up 1.289 points per possession, which was good for 78th percentile in college basketball. The numbers tell a nice story, but here’s a look at how comfortable he is shooting the ball, even with a defender at his feet (video from Synergy Sports):

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharycohen/2020/05/29/jalen-smith-could-be-the-most-under-appreciated-big-in-the-2020-nba-draft/#1ff69966363b

Yes, I'm really committed to BPA and in a gambling mood
No- are you crazy?! We have Mitch and Randle!
Maybe- I have no idea any more
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Author Thread
TripleThreat
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8/29/2020  2:06 AM
Jalen Smith will profile out as a reserve Stretch 5 with a low defensive upside. There are two pathways for poor decision making on the court. The first is someone who just lacks experience against higher levels of competition. Also some guys start playing organized ball later as a youth. The second is a person who cannot process what is going on in front of him at game speed. If Smith can't do it at the college level with an extra year, it's only going to compound in the NBA. A guy like this can hide at lower levels because he's usually so much more powerful/athletic than competition that is vastly inferior. This creates appeal on tape that won't translate against actual NBA competition.

His shooting profiles out very well. I don't think he'll be able to manage NBA grade attack guards. Overall, he's not a basketball player at heart. He's a moderate level college athlete playing basketball because he's tall and everyone told him that's what he has to do. His ability to stay at the back end of a NBA rotation depends on fit. He needs a very very very simple system. Teams will talk themselves into him citing that he needs more experience/confidence. Those teams would be wrong.

His value to the Knicks? If they could buy a very late 2nd rounder or get him as an UDFA, why not. I don't think he'll last that long by a wide stretch.

The Wire comparison? Poot. The right mix of dumb and lucky to survive. Ending up selling shoes wasn't because of good decision making, it was just the path of least resistance after Bodie got capped. (I hope Poot got Bodie a nice arrangement. With those strong colors. That looked like one of those high rise towers.)

The Marlo storyline needed lots of plot armor. I just don't see Bodie's character progression meekly asking Marlo if he could speak to him. I see Bodie putting a bullet in his head. Omar really had to get shifted out of character in the last season to fit a very thin narrative. Once Butchie died, Omar, as constructed from the earlier seasons, would have killed them all. The idea that Omar would walk into a 5th/6th story apartment to kill someone makes little to no sense other than to shoehorn the real life Omar's apparent storyline. While the acting was very good in most spots, I just didn't think Jamie Hector could elevate the material he was given. I suppose the only arc for Chris Partlow that could work then would be if he was gay and in love with Marlo. Partlow was far better written and portrayed. The actor for Chris ended up making a movie with George Pelicanos that came out not long ago. Bird and Slim Charles return.


***

Patrick Williams is going to profile out as small ball 5 who won't be able to switch on defense. He's indicative of the "new normal" for tweeners. Between a jumbo wing and a small ball 5. I think scouts will overestimate his rim protection at the next level. Opponents who can get to the rim will feast on this guy because he will likely be someone they can sell contact on/play for the whistle against. He's pretty aggressive, which is a nice switch, because a lot of these newer generation guys are soft as ****. I see a replacement level shooter but is going to sell on tape as sexy because front offices will project against a high level point forward. He's not Scottie Pippen, but he's more than Billy Owens. There's a big gap there. Jenna Jameson doesn't have a gap that wide.

Defensively I see a tweener that won't be able to break through. He's a good test case for young talent evaluators to understand when an instinctive player is mistaken for a good decision maker. He needs a ton of work. OK, so if you project him hitting all his ceilings, in a very narrow high reward window, you are looking at a lethal small ball 5 who can run the offense. I think some team will fall in love with his tape too much.

His value to the Knicks? He's not worth the 8th pick and will be gone before the late 20s and he's not worth trading up for in this draft.

The Wire comparison? D'Angelo Barksdale. Not square enough while also not street enough. If anyone in this draft is going to get hanged in a library, it's probably Williams. I never saw D'Angelo as a tragic character. I think he was constructed as someone who was sheltered both too much and too little by his mother and uncle. Should have left the kid running a copy mat. Luck plays so much in real life. Larry Gilliyard and someone like Alice Braga from Queen Of The South, I mean their real life arc changed over being in the right place and right time to be in a movie. Life didn't leave them a little too slow or a little too late.


***

On both, I'm very partial to a certain type of player, so I have my own bias involved. Generally speaking, I'll shade down on guys with iffy footwork and hazy fundamentals.

AUTOADVERT
stanleybostitch
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8/29/2020  9:59 AM
Triple - will you post a mock before the draft? Would be interesting to see how you think it'll play out and who the Knicks, with their new braintrust, will take (or trade for).
The new new core: Randle, RJ, IQ. Maybe Mitch. Future pick. Future trade. Future FA.
smackeddog
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8/29/2020  11:00 AM
Patrick Williams:

Williams has quietly gained serious steam within NBA front offices. His name has come up multiple times in the sleeper-of-the-draft discussion.

One executive admitted to moving him into the top eight of his rankings, citing Williams being the draft's youngest NCAA prospect with "off-the-charts upside."

Another scout floated the idea that when we look back in a few years, we'll question how and why Williams wasn't a top pick more than any other prospect.

He didn't generate national attention, averaging just 9.2 points and 4.0 rebounds. But for a powerful 6'8", 225-pound 19-year-old, scouts have become enticed by his flashes of physical, athletic finishes, shot-making touch off the catch and dribble, pick-and-roll passing skills and defensive playmaking.

Those particular flashes create a unique potential trajectory if they become routine plays for Williams. And considering he only turned 19 on August 6, it seems as if teams will be willing to bet on his development.


Jalen Smith:


Multiple scouts have Smith graded as a lottery pick.

There is a belief that his full skill set was slightly masked at Maryland, and that he'll surprise with more offensive versatility in the NBA.

Regardless, his improved body and shooting hint at an easy fit and high floor. Teams want bigs who'll bang inside and stretch the floor, and Smith just became the sixth NCAA player on record to average at least a three-point make, 10 rebounds and two blocks a game, per Sports Reference.

He's also getting rave reviews for his professionalism and work ethic. He'll be moved into our lottery projections for our next mock draft.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2905180-2020-nba-draft-lottery-buzz-the-mystery-begins-right-at-the-top

martin
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8/29/2020  1:13 PM
All I know is I got to start watching The Wire so I can inherently get all of these references, been meaning to anyway
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BigDaddyG
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8/29/2020  1:16 PM
martin wrote:All I know is I got to start watching The Wire so I can inherently get all of these references, been meaning to anyway

This scene serves as sort of a nutgraph about message The Wire is trying to deliver.

Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
smackeddog
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8/29/2020  1:59 PM
That Hawks guy shared this:

New York has been targeting PGs and shooters who can defend for the most part. They are liking Patrick Williams and could be the 1st team that strongly considers him at this slot.
TripleThreat
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8/29/2020  9:51 PM    LAST EDITED: 8/29/2020  9:53 PM
stanleybostitch wrote:Triple - will you post a mock before the draft? Would be interesting to see how you think it'll play out and who the Knicks, with their new braintrust, will take (or trade for).


Health permitting, it's possible. I don't want to make promises though. I'm probably more likely to contribute to specific takes others post up. The guys I see as interesting will be Obi Toppin and Deni Avdija. Not so much as in individual players but because whomever picks them will likely reset the entire draft board for teams after them. These are the players the analytics guys really look at to see trends across multiple drafts. I.E. Swing players and/or swing picks.

I'd like to start a thread at some point about Rich Cho and projections against specific tenured GMs with their track record ( i.e. I have a specific bias, so do these guys, using more advanced modeling, could a team basically form a scouting report on a GM's tendencies. Teams already do this for refs and specific arenas, but this is actually far more complex)

You've got some interesting takes. If you chose to post more top level threads on topics you find worthwhile, I think it could generate some compelling basketball discussion. If you did, I'd make it a point to participate to show solidarity. Also I suspect you'd pick themes that would be thought provoking.

smackeddog
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8/30/2020  4:28 AM    LAST EDITED: 8/30/2020  4:58 AM

Definitely getting more intrigued, I was thinking he could be a Paul Millsap type, and then read on another forum that's who people were liken him to. Nothing spectacular, but all round pretty good and low key

smackeddog
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8/30/2020  4:40 AM
SupremeCommander
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9/9/2020  1:12 PM
I am bumping this because I really do like Patrick Williams. I do not love him persay, but I do like him an awful lot. There was a point in the season where he was shooting 50/40/90. He ended at 45.9/32.0/83.8. He plays defense, he seems to play efficiently. Seems to have some vision. I think he could play SF for us now and eventually grow into a stretch 4 role. Normally, I wouldn't love that, but I think RJ will go from SG to SF eventually so why not
DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
smackeddog
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9/9/2020  3:15 PM
SupremeCommander wrote:I am bumping this because I really do like Patrick Williams. I do not love him persay, but I do like him an awful lot. There was a point in the season where he was shooting 50/40/90. He ended at 45.9/32.0/83.8. He plays defense, he seems to play efficiently. Seems to have some vision. I think he could play SF for us now and eventually grow into a stretch 4 role. Normally, I wouldn't love that, but I think RJ will go from SG to SF eventually so why not

Me too- seems a good all-rounder. Nothing spectacular but could be an underrated, low key player like Milsap eventually

SupremeCommander
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9/10/2020  10:46 AM
smackeddog wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:I am bumping this because I really do like Patrick Williams. I do not love him persay, but I do like him an awful lot. There was a point in the season where he was shooting 50/40/90. He ended at 45.9/32.0/83.8. He plays defense, he seems to play efficiently. Seems to have some vision. I think he could play SF for us now and eventually grow into a stretch 4 role. Normally, I wouldn't love that, but I think RJ will go from SG to SF eventually so why not

Me too- seems a good all-rounder. Nothing spectacular but could be an underrated, low key player like Milsap eventually

If none of the big names fall to us, I think I would draft him. I’m not sure if hid ceiling is as high as what Millsap brought to the table, but I think Williams has a complete game and I think it’s almost a certainty that he won’t be a bust

DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
smackeddog
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9/15/2020  4:48 PM
https://www.thestrick.land/strick/the-case-for-patrick-williams-knicks-rebuilding-nba-draft-2020

Great article on Patrick Williams

Knicks Draft 2020: The Case for Patrick Williams or Jalen Smith

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