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Draft: the case for brains + heart over "talent"
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Chandler
Posts: 26778
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Joined: 11/26/2015
Member: #6197

8/24/2020  10:27 AM
it's that time of year where we again dream of drafting a savior. While it's cleat that talent is king, it's less clear about draft picks being as good as perceived especially based on talent

Here are the teams from this year's playoffs. Next to each i list their key players and use an * to denote those players which also were tier 1 draft picks, where i erred on the side of including tier 1 as key (e.g., Melo and A.Gordon are debatable; Victor is on his third team before he blossomed)

West 1st Round: Lakers vs. Blazers (Lakers: AD*, LBJ*; Blazers Dame (maybe * was 6); CJ; Carmelo* (?))
West 1st Round: Clippers vs. Mavericks (Clips: Kawhi, P.George; Mavs Luka*, KP*)
West 1st Round: Nuggets vs. Jazz (Denver: Jokic, Murray; Nuggets: Mitchell, Rudy, Conley*)
West 1st Round: Rockets vs. Thunder (Rockets: Harden*, Westbrook*, Gordon; OKC Paul*, SGA)
East 1st Round: Bucks vs. Magic (Bucks Giannis, Middleton, Lopez, Bledsoe; Magic: Vucevic, Fournier, Gordon* (?)
East 1st Round: Raptors vs. Nets (Raptors: siakem, kyle, Fred, Gasol; nets: caris, allen, Kyrie*, KD**(second asterisk because he contributed nothing this year)
East 1st Round: Celtics vs. 76ers (Celts Tatum*, Brown*; 76er Joel*, Ben*)
East 1st Round: Pacers vs. Heat (Pacers: TJ, Myles, Victor*; Heat: Bam, Jimmie, Dragic, Duncan)

The point of this is many of these guys were either diamonds in the rough undervalued (e.g, Mitchell and Bam being clear examples), but many more were guys who were smart and continued to develop their game (e.g., Kawhi). There are a lot of guys on this list who were picked right around where we are now or later. So there is hope!! We need to look into prospects' hearts and minds as much as we need to look at the video and stats if we want to build a winner.

Also consider that though the Lakers have two number 1s both were FAs or trades (typical recent Lakers) and the Lakers have had a bunch of questionable high picks Lonzo, Brandon, Russell, some of whom are now emerging from borderline bust status

Delete 8 lots of * here and didn't do much for team winning;
Hawks: Trae*, Hunter*, Collins
Hornets: rozier, bridges, Zeller*
Bulls: Carter*, Dunn*, Porter*, Markanen (* maybe at 7) lavine
Cavs love*, thompson *, garland*, sexton
Pistons griffin*, drummond, kennard
GS**: Wiggins* Dray (in a normal year this would include steph and klay each of whom was outside tier 1 on draft day)
Wolves: KAT*, D.Russel* or Wiggins* Culver (* maybe 6)
knicks: RJ*, Randle (* 7 somewhat akin to Dame on the edge), Morris, Payton

As far as #1 being a savior you have to go back 9 years for a #1 to have won a championship and that was Kyrie as second fddle to LBJ; 17 years for LBJ as the last #1 to be the alpha on a championship team; 23 years for Duncan. there are a lot more #1s where the team would want a complete do-over (e.g., fultz, Kwame, Bargs, Bennet, Kandi-man) than there were saviors

So I hope our FO is smarter about building a team, and choosing players who will continue to develop.

(5)(7)
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Draft: the case for brains + heart over "talent"

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