NotInMyHouse wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:We may have more positive cases due to more testing (?), but looking at the death rate, well, this chart speaks volumes.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

You realize that graph ends on the 13th June right? I mean it's clearly labelled as such (and so predates this current surge).And that there is a multiple week gap between people contracting the virus and dying (can be over 30 days).

Yeah, I'm aware. (Remember we had this talk a few months back about the CDC data lagging?)
But the rise, isn't it due to just more testing? (I asked that above as well.)

And look at current data here, deaths have pretty much maintained the same level, no spike. (As of yesterday.)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

That’s because the infection rate chart shows the latest uptick started 10 days ago- we won’t see that translate into deaths for another 10 to 20 days. The declining deaths go back a further 20 days on the infection rate chart, when infection rates were shown to be declining. But sure, keep pumping out that Trump propaganda line! EVERYTHING IS GOING GREAT! INFECTIONS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE HIS RESPONSE HAS BEEN TOO GOOD!

Just an update at the 10 day mark. Deaths still going down. Strange, new positive cases still up. Will update at 20 day mark again.

Oh look, it's Mr Passive-aggressive with "oh just an update" and a "strange"- impressive that you care so little about peoples lives that you want a p***ing contest about this- very rational.

ICU admission tends to happen around day 10.5 for those on the decline, Average time to death is 14-56 days (hopefully screening for blood clots, and use of more effective meds will reduce the fatality rate from the initial outbreak):

https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quickly-do-covid-19-symptoms-develop-and-how-long-do-they-last

Some poor people are in ICU for over 40-50 days, worry about their long term health after such a long recovery spell in ICU- amazing they survive, must be a long rehab after that.

The disaster scenario is if hospitals get overwhelmed. At the moment if you end up being hospitalized, you have a reasonable chance of recovery. If hospitals get overwhelmed and can't take on new patients, their mortality rate will plummet as they're essentially left to die at home AND poor family members left to care for them will likely get infected too. Wouldn't wish that scenario on anyone.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html

"In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable," said the Lancet's commentary authors, Isabella Eckerle, head of the Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases, and Benjamin Meyer, a virologist at the University of Geneva.
Doctors are uncertain whether having antibodies to the coronavirus means someone cannot be infected again. It's not clear how long or how well antibodies protect people from the virus.
Spain's peer-reviewed study began in April while the nation remained on a strict lockdown, and was conducted by leading government research and epidemiological agencies.

smackeddog wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:Just in case anyone needed more proof.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html

"In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable," said the Lancet's commentary authors, Isabella Eckerle, head of the Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases, and Benjamin Meyer, a virologist at the University of Geneva.
Doctors are uncertain whether having antibodies to the coronavirus means someone cannot be infected again. It's not clear how long or how well antibodies protect people from the virus.
Spain's peer-reviewed study began in April while the nation remained on a strict lockdown, and was conducted by leading government research and epidemiological agencies.

Does that make a vaccine less likely then? Or can you still have a viable vaccine even if antibodies don't protect you from it?

This virus is so confusing!

I saw an article about ****tail bombs. Maybe it will be case where we need vaccinate every few months?

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1280283199445311488

Thread:

My core question was what the world is going to look like in 3 years but asked other things as well.

(I go into detail on vaccines and trails & everything on upcoming #inthebubble).

2/
Starting with a slew of good news. 3/
The vaccine data from Oxford (being run in Brazil looks strong). No real safety issues so far. Gives people the antibodies.

People are getting it post-COVID & some will in a challenge trial. 4/
What “works” means— how long & for whom is less clear. But probably more like a flu vaccine (40%?) vs MMR (97%).

There will be multiple vaccines after the first expected in the Fall. Each likely progressively better. 5/
The monoclonal antibody therapy is also very exciting. Maybe even more so than a vaccine. If you get infected, it’s another way to confer immunity & prevent it from advancing. 6/
Therapy trials are easier and quicker than vaccine trials.

Frustration that some vaccine trials are moving too slowly & not sharing data other than in press releases. That’s something people can advocate for. 7/
Everyone— and I can’t emphasize this enough— was a huge proponent of masks. Efforts to invalidate masks were considered absurd. 8/
The reason I mention these things is that the principal thing I learned is that the future will be defined by all of these things in combination: vaccines, therapies, masks, and other human interventions. 9/
Mutations yes, but there wasn’t much concern that vaccines could keep up.

Also viruses become less deadly over time and there is cross-immunity and other potential 10/
T-cells more important and less understood than antibodies. 11/
What is the FDAs hurdle for approving an EUA?

Safety and a 50% or greater chance of improvement. 12/
In 6 months or so, so far science is doing as well as our leaders are doing poorly. 13/
The future is always murky but given what I heard I asked: so, optimistic about reducing lethality but not eradication? Basically that’s what it sounded like.

Yes, there will be a new normal. 14/
What’s in this new normal? Will I be able to hug my mother?

The answers landed on “I hope so.” But no promises. 15/
Will people wear masks in the future?

Hope that we are more like Asia where this becomes a norm, particularly when people are sick. 16/
Crowds, arenas?

Take it slowly. Masks and immunity and digital apps will help. But people will be taking risks.

Antibody therapies could make catching CV less deadly & therefore a more acceptable risk. 17/
What will the time before a vaccine look like?

Crappy. Horrible response in the US. Way too many unnecessary deaths. Fall will be awful. 18/
Chance that the early vaccines turn out to be unsafe or don’t pan out? Possible but low. 19/
Will people be able to trust what they hear from the FDA or Trump Administration?
It’s an issue.

Will you?
Likely. Will look at the data.

Would you take a vaccine?
Depends on the data.

Expect there to be data before approval?
Yes.

Will you speak out no matter what?
Yes. 20/
This felt like a realistic glimpse into the future: continuously better. Not one dramatic moment.

No “life before vaccine” or “life after vaccine.” But gradual changes. 21/
The major takeaway. There absolutely is a light at the end of the tunnel even if it’s hard to see sometimes. Even if our leaders have made this harder. Even if it’s very dispiriting. 22/
The hard things will pass if we’re patient (which is hard) & pass more quickly if we make tougher decisions.

I know the marathon is harder to run when you don’t know what mile you’re at. But if you count on & help others, I view it better as a relay race. /end
PS If people have different knowledge, feel free to add it.

In this area, I’m not an expert. Just trying to give the benefit of my network.
Maybe I got the date wrong. Maybe I didn’t and I’m writing this for people in Europe. No need to judge.

Clean wrote:

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1280495570910695425

Deaths might not have gone up yet due to lengthy ICU stays and juking stats. With ICU's becoming filled to capacity deaths will start to
inevitably creep up.

Wow.

I know that hospitals need to show beds available if they want to be eligible for elective surgeries (that's where they make their money), so it's usually a numbers game.

martin wrote:

Clean wrote:

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1280495570910695425

Deaths might not have gone up yet due to lengthy ICU stays and juking stats. With ICU's becoming filled to capacity deaths will start to
inevitably creep up.

Wow.

I know that hospitals need to show beds available if they want to be eligible for elective surgeries (that's where they make their money), so it's usually a numbers game.

Now 54 at ICU capacity:

Intensive care units at 54 hospitals in Florida are full as Covid-19 cases surge, according to data published on Tuesday by the state’s Agency for Health Care Administration.

Almost 214,000 people in the Sunshine State have now tested positive, with 7,361 new cases recorded on Monday. In total 3,841 people in Florida have died from coronavirus.

Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis is a Donald Trump loyalist who has refused to slow Florida’s reopening or implement a statewide mask mandate.

At a press conference on Tuesday at the Miami Care Centre he did don a face covering, however — not while speaking himself, but when his interpreter began to translate his words into Spanish.

Talking to the media, DeSantis announced that another Covid-specific nursing home will open with 150 beds. This will be the 12th of its kind in the state, he said at a press conference.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/07/coronavirus-live-news-boris-johnson-accuses-care-homes-over-deaths-as-us-cases-near-3m

You have to hope/presume the've been planning for this for months and can free up some space/convert other hospital wings to ICU's, though staffing may be an issue

smackeddog wrote:

martin wrote:

Clean wrote:

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1280495570910695425

Deaths might not have gone up yet due to lengthy ICU stays and juking stats. With ICU's becoming filled to capacity deaths will start to
inevitably creep up.

Wow.

I know that hospitals need to show beds available if they want to be eligible for elective surgeries (that's where they make their money), so it's usually a numbers game.

Now 54 at ICU capacity:

Intensive care units at 54 hospitals in Florida are full as Covid-19 cases surge, according to data published on Tuesday by the state’s Agency for Health Care Administration.

Almost 214,000 people in the Sunshine State have now tested positive, with 7,361 new cases recorded on Monday. In total 3,841 people in Florida have died from coronavirus.

Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis is a Donald Trump loyalist who has refused to slow Florida’s reopening or implement a statewide mask mandate.

At a press conference on Tuesday at the Miami Care Centre he did don a face covering, however — not while speaking himself, but when his interpreter began to translate his words into Spanish.

Talking to the media, DeSantis announced that another Covid-specific nursing home will open with 150 beds. This will be the 12th of its kind in the state, he said at a press conference.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/07/coronavirus-live-news-boris-johnson-accuses-care-homes-over-deaths-as-us-cases-near-3m

You have to hope/presume the've been planning for this for months and can free up some space/convert other hospital wings to ICU's, though staffing may be an issue

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/TommyBeer/status/1280558659282616321

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1280310347291856896

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/dw_europe/status/1280873296922361857

smackeddog wrote:Do the idiots tantruming at having to wear a mask in stores also object to having to wear clothes? Do they think they should be allowed to wander round stores naked in the name of freedom?

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1281252546644971520

Look how lagged behind this new high for deaths was. Trying to find a correlation between death and new Covid cases is going to be hard because this thing affects different people differently. My mother lasted about 8 or 9 days. Some people a month and that Broadway actor guy lasted 3 months before he died.

Some people who get over it without much known complications are now feeling differences in their body pre Covid and post Covid. We know that some asymptomatic people have permanent lung damage. Now some people are noticing differences in their heart rate.

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/AnthonyBLSmith/status/1280854511804964865