martin wrote:Hello Arizona, Texas, Florida

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1275815823693754368

Martin these states have done an incredible job. I’m scared that the direct scenario— people coming from “ hot spots” will reignite this to a degree.

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1275851681260023813

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1275907797096505344

martin wrote:

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/PreetBharara/status/1275938209151815684

Gee, who saw this coming?

NotInMyHouse wrote:We may have more positive cases due to more testing (?), but looking at the death rate, well, this chart speaks volumes.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

You realize that graph ends on the 13th June right? I mean it's clearly labelled as such (and so predates this current surge).And that there is a multiple week gap between people contracting the virus and dying (can be over 30 days).

NotInMyHouse wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:We may have more positive cases due to more testing (?), but looking at the death rate, well, this chart speaks volumes.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

You realize that graph ends on the 13th June right? I mean it's clearly labelled as such (and so predates this current surge).And that there is a multiple week gap between people contracting the virus and dying (can be over 30 days).

Yeah, I'm aware. (Remember we had this talk a few months back about the CDC data lagging?)
But the rise, isn't it due to just more testing? (I asked that above as well.)

And look at current data here, deaths have pretty much maintained the same level, no spike. (As of yesterday.)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

That’s because the infection rate chart shows the latest uptick started 10 days ago- we won’t see that translate into deaths for another 10 to 20 days. The declining deaths go back a further 20 days on the infection rate chart, when infection rates were shown to be declining. But sure, keep pumping out that Trump propaganda line! EVERYTHING IS GOING GREAT! INFECTIONS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE HIS RESPONSE HAS BEEN TOO GOOD!

NotInMyHouse wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:We may have more positive cases due to more testing (?), but looking at the death rate, well, this chart speaks volumes.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

You realize that graph ends on the 13th June right? I mean it's clearly labelled as such (and so predates this current surge).And that there is a multiple week gap between people contracting the virus and dying (can be over 30 days).

Yeah, I'm aware. (Remember we had this talk a few months back about the CDC data lagging?)
But the rise, isn't it due to just more testing? (I asked that above as well.)

And look at current data here, deaths have pretty much maintained the same level, no spike. (As of yesterday.)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

That’s because the infection rate chart shows the latest uptick started 10 days ago- we won’t see that translate into deaths for another 10 to 20 days. The declining deaths go back a further 20 days on the infection rate chart, when infection rates were shown to be declining. But sure, keep pumping out that Trump propaganda line! EVERYTHING IS GOING GREAT! INFECTIONS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE HIS RESPONSE HAS BEEN TOO GOOD!

Attacking someone for a differing opinion really has no place in a discussion thread. I used accepted data and even posed a question. No reason to bring politics into this and bolding/yelling. Keep it civil and friendly. We both will learn more. Let's just have a discussion on a discussion forum.

Let's try to just stick to data and back away from the personal attacks please.

We will see what happens with the death rate over the next few weeks.

Stay healthy everyone.

I do find it pretty difficult to deduct a "clear conclusion" from the different sources of data and research with Covid-19 on many co-topics/meassures:
- impact of children in the whole process of spreading the disease - here closure of Kindergardens and limited School Access is still the norm yet ppl flock into the Shopping malls like nothing happened... :-/
- impact of different meassures in terms of a valid "degree of impact" idea - I understand that masks and social distancing are an "easy to uphold" and logic step to prevend spreding Covid-19 yet while larger events are prohibited we had 25.000 ppl on the streets for BLM in Munich and in the 2 weeks after the number of infections here has not "risen" like crazy - still below the 20th per day for a 1.4 mio ppl city.

I try to stick to a couple of basic ideas...
- I look at number of new infections in my area so I understand my vincinity and can react to changes.
- I do what I can to take care of me and my surroundings. Wear a mask, keep distance... its not that difficult.
- Work from Home office but quite frankly many industries now have established ways to open up again here.
- I think we have handled the initial outbreak well and now that the "numbers of infected" are ok, the testing possibilities are there and used, we do have the luxury to open up little by little without anything "BIG" happening (I hope so at least!)

The graph you showed NotInMyHouse quite frankly leads to a "uncomplete" idea of ... this is all over and not bad at all... let me explain to you why I think this way:
- as mentioned before the chart is lacking behind in two ways... a) its only until June 13th AND there is a significant time lag between infection (where numbers are rising rapidly right now in the US) and actual death - its like standing on the dry beach before a tsunami, seeing the wave in the distance closing in and saying - "hey its a nice sunny day right? Nothing special happening..."
- also the number of deaths due to Covid-19 decreasing is most probably based on a couple of things that are positive overall but do not take away the threat that this pandemic is to ppl lives e.g. initially infections were concentrated on a couple of hotspots (NY is in everybodies minds) leading to a massive problem within the limited ressources in hospitals - now infections are wider spread - hopsitalization is getting "watered down" which leads to better chances to survive; same is true for treatment - even though there is no "good" treatment the way to deal with the hard cases have become more elaborate
- another thing that quite honestly (may be lost in translation to me) is not clear to me is if Pneunomia cases (outside of Covid-19 because many are not being tested I think after death) are included. There is a well documented massive rise in Pneunomia deaths in many states in the US... if they are not included --- well its not a valid graph in my view!
- Lastly I would like to simply put out the 120+k dead up to now and ask you for a clear statement if these lost lives are a tragedy or not - especially if you keep in mind that a lot of those could have been "rather easily" be prevented by better judgement of the situation by the officials.

dodger78 wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

NotInMyHouse wrote:We may have more positive cases due to more testing (?), but looking at the death rate, well, this chart speaks volumes.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

You realize that graph ends on the 13th June right? I mean it's clearly labelled as such (and so predates this current surge).And that there is a multiple week gap between people contracting the virus and dying (can be over 30 days).

Yeah, I'm aware. (Remember we had this talk a few months back about the CDC data lagging?)
But the rise, isn't it due to just more testing? (I asked that above as well.)

And look at current data here, deaths have pretty much maintained the same level, no spike. (As of yesterday.)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

That’s because the infection rate chart shows the latest uptick started 10 days ago- we won’t see that translate into deaths for another 10 to 20 days. The declining deaths go back a further 20 days on the infection rate chart, when infection rates were shown to be declining. But sure, keep pumping out that Trump propaganda line! EVERYTHING IS GOING GREAT! INFECTIONS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE HIS RESPONSE HAS BEEN TOO GOOD!

Attacking someone for a differing opinion really has no place in a discussion thread. I used accepted data and even posed a question. No reason to bring politics into this and bolding/yelling. Keep it civil and friendly. We both will learn more. Let's just have a discussion on a discussion forum.

Let's try to just stick to data and back away from the personal attacks please.

We will see what happens with the death rate over the next few weeks.

Stay healthy everyone.

I do find it pretty difficult to deduct a "clear conclusion" from the different sources of data and research with Covid-19 on many co-topics/meassures:
- impact of children in the whole process of spreading the disease - here closure of Kindergardens and limited School Access is still the norm yet ppl flock into the Shopping malls like nothing happened... :-/
- impact of different meassures in terms of a valid "degree of impact" idea - I understand that masks and social distancing are an "easy to uphold" and logic step to prevend spreding Covid-19 yet while larger events are prohibited we had 25.000 ppl on the streets for BLM in Munich and in the 2 weeks after the number of infections here has not "risen" like crazy - still below the 20th per day for a 1.4 mio ppl city.

I try to stick to a couple of basic ideas...
- I look at number of new infections in my area so I understand my vincinity and can react to changes.
- I do what I can to take care of me and my surroundings. Wear a mask, keep distance... its not that difficult.
- Work from Home office but quite frankly many industries now have established ways to open up again here.
- I think we have handled the initial outbreak well and now that the "numbers of infected" are ok, the testing possibilities are there and used, we do have the luxury to open up little by little without anything "BIG" happening (I hope so at least!)

The graph you showed NotInMyHouse quite frankly leads to a "uncomplete" idea of ... this is all over and not bad at all... let me explain to you why I think this way:
- as mentioned before the chart is lacking behind in two ways... a) its only until June 13th AND there is a significant time lag between infection (where numbers are rising rapidly right now in the US) and actual death - its like standing on the dry beach before a tsunami, seeing the wave in the distance closing in and saying - "hey its a nice sunny day right? Nothing special happening..."
- also the number of deaths due to Covid-19 decreasing is most probably based on a couple of things that are positive overall but do not take away the threat that this pandemic is to ppl lives e.g. initially infections were concentrated on a couple of hotspots (NY is in everybodies minds) leading to a massive problem within the limited ressources in hospitals - now infections are wider spread - hopsitalization is getting "watered down" which leads to better chances to survive; same is true for treatment - even though there is no "good" treatment the way to deal with the hard cases have become more elaborate
- another thing that quite honestly (may be lost in translation to me) is not clear to me is if Pneunomia cases (outside of Covid-19 because many are not being tested I think after death) are included. There is a well documented massive rise in Pneunomia deaths in many states in the US... if they are not included --- well its not a valid graph in my view!
- Lastly I would like to simply put out the 120+k dead up to now and ask you for a clear statement if these lost lives are a tragedy or not - especially if you keep in mind that a lot of those could have been "rather easily" be prevented by better judgement of the situation by the officials.

I pretty much agree with your first two paragraphs. There is a lot that is confusing with all this. And I understand it is complicated.

Regarding the CDC graph, or rather the NY Times one – Clearly this is not over. I am just trying to add some hope to the conversation. I’m not saying not to social distance, not to take things lightly, etc.

I’m not sure about your pneumonia point. I brought it up before here re the CV19 case total (if it was included or not.) I believe from the statistics that the CDC breaks down CV19 deaths by both "had CV19 but didn’t cause the death" and "CV19 was the cause of the death". I don't disagree with much of anything you posted. A few points I'm unsure about.

I take all loss of lives seriously. I have old parents like many of you and I saw at least one person here lost a loved one. I tell you what, if I had lost a loved one in a NY or CA nursing home, AFTER they transferred CV19 patients there (when they had space in hospitals), I’d be furious.

NotInMyHouse wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:
The bulk of your posts on Covid since this pandemic started can be summed up as "Move along, nothing to see here." .

Your articles consistently downplay the severity of the pandemic. And as Dodger mentioned, a lack of concern for the loss of life. Those numbers dont seem to to register with you. You are looking at a global health crisis strictly through the prism of politics, and its pissing some posters off. Have to expect that reaction.

A great deal of this CV19 thread is bashing Trump and I’m bringing politics into things? I don’t get your point. (Jump to the voting threat and I clearly said I’m not sure who I’m voting for yet.)

Above I said “We may have more positive cases due to more testing (?), but looking at the death rate, well, this chart speaks volumes.“, how is that downplaying anything? Just like I told dodger78, I’m adding some hope. There is still a whole lot of deaths in that chart, but at least it isn’t going up anymore.

Last thing, go through this thread and tell me it is at all representative of that America right now feels. We are split as a Country, this thread is one sided. It doesn't mean I am to be treated as an enemy.

When you get a 40 out of 100 on a test (where 65 is fail mark), there are not 2 ways to look at it. There shouldn't be a side of... "hey look, we got 40 that's great, lots of room for improvement! We got all the math questions right!" Versus the other side that looks at the score and just sees failure. There are not 2 sides, just one: you failed the test.

America failed the corona test and by a wide margin. We are THE most resourceful country in the world and it's not even close. Is there hope that the death rate is slowing? Yes (in the same way that you have near terminal cancer and the spread is slowing down some). Should there be a death rate at all that is even in the realm of thousands dead a day? Nope. Hundreds? Nope.

Fucking Hong Kong has 1.1K corona positive cases, 7 dead. 7.4M people, just under the size of NYC. But for the uprisings, they would have near normal'ish life?

US is 45 times bigger than Hong Kong. Let's do the numbers on HK and extrapolate: 45K cases, 315 people dead; those are the numbers the US should have if we handled like an advanced country but we now have 2M cases, 120K dead.

There are not sides to takes on this. Florida, Texas, Arizona are seeing NYC and Italy like explosions that happened in March without the foreknowledge. Trump and the gov't KNEW this would happen and let it.

They decided lots of deaths were worth the risk of opening up. Knew that hospital rates would go up. When people swarm a hospital to capacity, families are ruined financially, death occurs (even if the RATE of death goes down).

The death rate is slowing such that there is not a 9/11 like loss every 3 days, it's now like 5 days with a mini explosion coming up soon. Hope?

The country is a cancer patient right now with Trump as the lead doctor and he keeps peeking his head in and literally not doing anything for the patient except make it worse while nurses scramble around with masks and band-aids.

Is that hope?

Frankly, the CDC website should be a good source for all of us. It is unfortunate that our gov't has bent every institution to shade to making things LOOK good while they are not. We know that reporting across states is not consistent. Florida is manipulating data (I don't have link but think someone posted it in this thread). I'm guessing that states NEED the revenue from July 4th weekend and want to keep businesses open and are doing all they can with COVID numbers to make it so.

It's unfortunate but I think the US is in need of the vaccine hail mary because we can't manage it better without.