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martin wrote:

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https://twitter.com/NormOrnstein/status/1242231697372053504

I know this is an echo chamber here and no-one disagrees but.....

I just hope and pray that the state governors start ignoring Trump. I can't think of a person on this planet worse suited to lead the response to this than Donald J Trump. I really fear for the United States of America

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just want to chime in to the discussion.

i think we are operating blindly here - we are making too many decisions w/o having a real clear picture of how dangerous or widespread this really is.

in 18/19, the CDC said 490k people were hospitalized with the flu. of that number, 34k people died. when you see 490k and 34k, you are shook b/c those are two huge numbers...and that's with a vaccine. but the world doesn't shut down b/c the CDC also said 35 mil people got the flu in 18/19. so the death rate turns out to be 0.1%.

we are currently operating on only two numbers - positive tests and deaths. and panic is going to increase b/c positive test numbers will go up alot b/c we are testing more. our main concern now is that since this virus was introduced 3 months ago, we may be overrun at hospitals with a huge influx all at the same time. so we must do whatever we can to prevent that b/c that won't be good for people with or without it.

but at the macro level, we must find out how many people not only have it...but have had it. from what i read developing a test to see if you have an anti-body for it is easy and also easy to administer. we need that total number just to understand how dangerous this thing is.

we have been an unchecked country for 2+ months the virus has been around. people were travelling everywhere, congregating in huge groups, etc. my gut says tens of millions of people have it or have had it already. alot of them w/o symptoms or w/ symptoms and fought it off. my guess is that quite a few people went to doctor's offices in jan/feb and were sent home saying it was the flu w/o being tested for it - and many of them recovered.

this is all guesswork and hypothesizing on my end b/c we don't have mass testing available right now. it would be great to test a few hundred thousand new yorkers of all ages/sexes/nationalities to see how many people have/had it so we can see a real % of how many go into critical care for it. trump's administration had 2+ months to get tests ready and they didn't - that's the biggest failure here. instead of being proactive to protect the country, they were reactive b/c they didn't want to disrupt the economy.

i don't see how we can tell people to start going back to work next week w/o having a full picture of this. it's careless and reckless. my guess is they crunched the numbers and are ok with 1-2% potential deaths instead of having another great depression.

again, stay safe everyone.

smackeddog wrote:
If even the UK government (which is a very right wing and dominated by free market zealots, and started off with Trumps stance of letting the virus run free to get it overweigh ASAP to minimize economic damage) is now implementing a full lockdown, then it shows how horrific the government projected mortality stats must be. That Trump is going to unleash this hell in 15 days (the only country in the world to do this madness) is beyond disturbing

The Netherlands and Sweden are also going with "herd immunity", ie let the virus do its thing so that it's over quicker.

TheGame wrote:The reality is that there are ALOT more people with the virus than the numbers show. If you stop social distancing, this virus would probably infect at least half of our population. Assuming the death rate is 1% (and most estimates make it higher), you are talking about 1 million people dying and millions with permanent lung damage in the US alone. The economy is important, but trying to stop social distancing to save the economy is not a wise idea.

It's 1% for just as long as you can treat enough patients properly though, when your medical capacity is overrun then it rockets up. I've been looking at percentages for a couple of countries, they always start quite low before increasing steadily.

Juliano wrote:

TheGame wrote:The reality is that there are ALOT more people with the virus than the numbers show. If you stop social distancing, this virus would probably infect at least half of our population. Assuming the death rate is 1% (and most estimates make it higher), you are talking about 1 million people dying and millions with permanent lung damage in the US alone. The economy is important, but trying to stop social distancing to save the economy is not a wise idea.

It's 1% for just as long as you can treat enough patients properly though, when your medical capacity is overrun then it rockets up. I've been looking at percentages for a couple of countries, they always start quite low before increasing steadily.

The United States needs a lockdown for 30 days. No if’s ands or but’s. We should’ve done this when Japan did it 6 weeks ago. This has been a disastrous slow process and too many people not listening. Bottom line forget economy for a month— stay inside with your family and help your community if you can. Don’t hoard food or goods. Check on the elderly. We NEED a truth month of quarantine!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why do t we just f do it??????

BRIGGS wrote:

Juliano wrote:

TheGame wrote:The reality is that there are ALOT more people with the virus than the numbers show. If you stop social distancing, this virus would probably infect at least half of our population. Assuming the death rate is 1% (and most estimates make it higher), you are talking about 1 million people dying and millions with permanent lung damage in the US alone. The economy is important, but trying to stop social distancing to save the economy is not a wise idea.

It's 1% for just as long as you can treat enough patients properly though, when your medical capacity is overrun then it rockets up. I've been looking at percentages for a couple of countries, they always start quite low before increasing steadily.

The United States needs a lockdown for 30 days. No if’s ands or but’s. We should’ve done this when Japan did it 6 weeks ago. This has been a disastrous slow process and too many people not listening. Bottom line forget economy for a month— stay inside with your family and help your community if you can. Don’t hoard food or goods. Check on the elderly. We NEED a truth month of quarantine!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why do t we just f do it??????

YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES

So lockdown is only a part of it. Need supplies and tests and the things that go along with testing AFTER the lockdown is done to make it long term effective. South Korean style

Our fed government has ****ed up with long term supply chain of things and halted everything that we need to do collectively.

NYS/CA and other high hot spots can't just shut down and then wait on the dip****s in FL and other places

djsunyc wrote:hey everyone. hope you are and family are all safe and sound.

just want to chime in to the discussion.

i think we are operating blindly here - we are making too many decisions w/o having a real clear picture of how dangerous or widespread this really is.

in 18/19, the CDC said 490k people were hospitalized with the flu. of that number, 34k people died. when you see 490k and 34k, you are shook b/c those are two huge numbers...and that's with a vaccine. but the world doesn't shut down b/c the CDC also said 35 mil people got the flu in 18/19. so the death rate turns out to be 0.1%.

we are currently operating on only two numbers - positive tests and deaths. and panic is going to increase b/c positive test numbers will go up alot b/c we are testing more. our main concern now is that since this virus was introduced 3 months ago, we may be overrun at hospitals with a huge influx all at the same time. so we must do whatever we can to prevent that b/c that won't be good for people with or without it.

but at the macro level, we must find out how many people not only have it...but have had it. from what i read developing a test to see if you have an anti-body for it is easy and also easy to administer. we need that total number just to understand how dangerous this thing is.

we have been an unchecked country for 2+ months the virus has been around. people were travelling everywhere, congregating in huge groups, etc. my gut says tens of millions of people have it or have had it already. alot of them w/o symptoms or w/ symptoms and fought it off. my guess is that quite a few people went to doctor's offices in jan/feb and were sent home saying it was the flu w/o being tested for it - and many of them recovered.

this is all guesswork and hypothesizing on my end b/c we don't have mass testing available right now. it would be great to test a few hundred thousand new yorkers of all ages/sexes/nationalities to see how many people have/had it so we can see a real % of how many go into critical care for it. trump's administration had 2+ months to get tests ready and they didn't - that's the biggest failure here. instead of being proactive to protect the country, they were reactive b/c they didn't want to disrupt the economy.

i don't see how we can tell people to start going back to work next week w/o having a full picture of this. it's careless and reckless. my guess is they crunched the numbers and are ok with 1-2% potential deaths instead of having another great depression.

again, stay safe everyone.

Very articulate my brother.

I'll chime in to here just to tell my story with this virus.

My 3 year old son was sick at the end of January with a high fever off and on for 10 days. We took him in and they just said he had a virus. Said keep him home and monitor him. We did that. He was drugged up on tylenol and motrin. He got through it. Right after my 5 year old got sick for 2 days. My wife got sick for a day. I got sick off and on for a week. I was still going to work. Did we have the coronavirus? I won't know... but you say they can test for antibodies. I could put money on it that my family had this thing in January/February. Kids get sick all the time especially my kids but thus thing we had was really different. 10 day fever? It kept coming back on my little guy. My fever was just as random, but I was strong enough to manage through it.

We're all sick all the time. Nobody ever asks, "hey which virus fo I have?"... is that gonna change now? How in the world can we deal with that? I just don't know how we're ever gonna get to the end of this. In the meantime, I'm not worried about a depression. I'm worried about my neighbors trying to kill me or my family because they know I'm still working and they aren't (I work for the city). People are being told to stay homes but when the money is gone they will be looking to go into your home.

newyorknewyork wrote:Checkin in, prayers out for all you and your families health!!!

My brother & sister in law will be having a baby boy today in this enivronment. Nerve recking.

Oh man, safety and health to everyone. Let us know how it goes