Paul, Green boost their stock this summer

By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider

Too early to start talking about the 2005 NBA draft? Forget about it. NBA scouts have been combing high school and international gyms all summer getting ready for the fall basketball season.

Summer might be the dead time for NBA players, but everyone else was pretty busy. High school players competed at the three shoe camps, various AAU tournaments and at the Global Games.

Some of the top college players represented the U.S. in the under-21 Tournament of the Americas. They also were camp counselors at the shoe camps as well as counselors at the elite Michael Jordan camp in Santa Barbara.

Top international players also were everywhere. Several of them played for their home countries in the Olympics. Many more played at international clinics like Basketball Without Borders, the adidas Superstar Camp in Berlin or at the European Under 18 Championships in Zaragoza, Spain.

Insider talked to a number of the top NBA scouts around the world to get a quick look at some players who helped and hurt themselves over the summer. On Friday, we'll use the info we gathered to update our Top 5 by position for the first time this year.


The College Players
No one has done more for his draft stock in the last eight months than Wake Forest point guard Chris Paul. When Insider wrote last March that several scouts claimed he was the best point guard prospect they'd seen since Jason Kidd, we got some snickers -- even from other scouts.

Now, it's tough to find anyone who doesn't believe Paul won't be the first or second college player taken in the 2005 draft. After finishing the season in stellar form, he led the USA World Championship For Young Men team to an undefeated record and a gold medal finish at the FIBA Americas World Championship For Young Men Qualifying Tournament.

Paul was the unquestioned leader of the squad and averaged 10 ppg and 8 apg for Team USA and thoroughly outplayed his closest competition, Arizona's Mustafa Shakur.


Paul might emerge as a top overall draft pick soon.
If Paul can build on a strong freshman season, he not only will be the first point guard taken in the draft, he could be the first pick overall.

"Now comes the tough part for Paul," one NBA scout told Insider. "Everyone is going to be watching him more critically now. Is he tall enough? Can he shoot it well enough? How's his defense. He's going to get picked apart. The thing that makes me so confident about him is that he has his head screwed on straight. His priorities are in the right place. I just don't see how he's going to fail."

This whole Paul-to-the-NBA next season thing could be just a mirage, however. He's telling everyone he loves college and wants to play all four years at Wake Forest. If he does, he has great company -- Tim Duncan turned down the same overtures for several years.

After Paul, there's a lot of disagreement about who's the next-best point guard in college. The only thing scouts agree on is that, whomever he is, he's well behind Paul on their draft boards. North Carolina's Raymond Felton, Georgia Tech's Jarrett Jack and Arizona's Shakur have the most supporters. But scouts claim each player has holes in his game that give the evaluators pause.

Paul wasn't the only college kid turning heads this summer. A couple of scouts ran into Pittsburgh's Chris Taft and walked away raving. According to scouts, the 6-foot-10, 250-pound sophomore power forward has lost a little weight, is even more explosive, and is the college player most likely to challenge Paul as the first American taken in the draft.

Some scouts are still spinning over a pick-up game at Michael Jordan's camp in Santa Barbara, where some of the top players in college basketball, including Paul, Raymond Felton, Shakur and others, served as counselors. At night, they scrimmaged against each other, and scouts all claim the best player in the gym for that week was Oklahoma State's Joey Graham.

Graham already has an NBA body, athleticism and great toughness. What he really lacked last year was a consistent jumper. Graham, who stands just 6-foot-7, preferred to do most of his dirty work on the inside, something he's not going to get away with in the NBA. Can he make the transition to the wing in the pros?

"From what I saw ... absolutely," one scout said. "He's really worked on his jumper, and he was just dominant at times. There aren't many seniors on the radar screen these days. He's going to be a good one."

North Carolina big man Sean May also turned some heads with his rugged play for Team USA in Halifax, though scouts still worry about his lack of height.

One scout claims Louisville's Francisco Garcia put on 20 pounds of muscle and looks poised for a monster season.

Another is already predicting that New Mexico's Danny Granger could be the sleeper in next year's draft. Yet another claims that if KU's J.R. Giddens can remain injury free (he's struggled with ankle and foot injuries) he could be the guy to move the furthest up the charts this season.

And there's a major argument going on with scouts about which freshman -- North Carolina's Marvin Williams or UConn's Rudy Gay -- will be this year's Carmelo Anthony.

With so many college players on the rise, is there anyone who isn't making an impression right now? Scouts uniformly seem to have soured on Syracuse forward Hakim Warrick. After projecting him as a potential late lottery pick in 2003, he was downgraded to a mid-to-late first rounder last season. Now, scouts act like he's over the hill.

"I just don't think he has a position in the NBA," one NBA scout said. "He's not very skilled except around the basket. But he's just 6-foot-8, is as skinny as a bean pole and doesn't look like he has the frame to fill out. Unless he comes back this fall with a handle and a jumper, I think he slides."

Several scouts also referred to Maryland point guard John Gilchrist as "Stephon Marbury-lite." Given the growing frustration around the league with Marbury, that can't be good.


The High School Kids
After the ABCD camp in New Jersey, the Nike camp in Indianapolis and the adidas camp in Atlanta, followed by several big AAU events like the Big Time in Las Vegas, scouts remain as enamored as ever with the American high school crop -- just not this year's.

Greg Oden, who is starting his junior year this fall and O.J. Mayo, who is ready to begin his sophomore year, both look like sure-fire picks at the top of the draft in 2006 and 2007. This year … it's pretty ugly.

Scouts have been predicting NBA doom for this class all year, but all of them hoped a player or two would emerge from the summer play. While several caught their eyes, most prospects hurt themselves more than they helped, and no one jumped out as a sure-fire lottery pick.

"This is the worst high school class I've ever seen," one veteran NBA scout claimed. "There are a lot of kids in it who will help their college teams. But NBA teams? I'm not sure that even after four years of college most of these kids will be ready for the NBA. It's awful."

Depending on who you ask Louis Williams, a lightning quick 6-2 shooting guard from Georgia, or Andray Blatche, a 6-11 power forward playing prep ball in Connecticut, are the two players most likely to make the leap to the NBA. However, Williams wasn't great in any of the camps this year, and how many 6-2 shooting guards are excelling in the NBA these days? Blatche has the size NBA scouts love, but his decision to show scouts at the ABCD camp he really was a shooting guard backfired. Scouts still love Blatche when he mixes it up down low, but they were frustrated by his newfound desire to hang out around the perimeter.

Other top high school prospects include Brandon Rush (brother of the Lakers' Kareem Rush), Monta Ellis, Richard Hendrix, Josh McRoberts, Julian Wright, Amir Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough, Tasmin Mitchell and Keith Brumbaugh. Each appears to need lots of college experience before making the leap.

There was, however, one unheralded high school player who played well enough to catch the eye of several NBA scouts. Texas swingman Gerald Green was described by several scouts as the best player at the ABCD camp this summer. He led the camp in scoring and showed a rare combination of athleticism, shooting prowess and maturity.

If any player has a shot at squeaking into the lottery, scouts claim it's Green, who's already starting to draw the inevitable Tracy McGrady comparisons. Still, scouts acknowledge it's a stretch. "Let's just put it this way," one NBA scout told Insider. "If Green was in the 2004 draft, he would've been drafted after all eight of the high school players in that draft. Josh Smith slipped all the way to 17, and this kid isn't as good as he is. Guys like Green may go higher, but it will only be because there's no one else in front of him."

And scouts are even wavering a bit on the two sure-fire superstuds, Oden and Mayo. Oden, a 7-footer from Indianapolis, was outplayed at the ABCD camp by Blatche and sophomore Derrick Caracter. Oden, who was the hit of the ABCD camp last summer, is an impressive specimen of both size and athleticism, but he still lacks strength and a go-to move in the post. Blatche and Caracter were stronger and gave him trouble. What happens when he gets to the NBA? The question is probably moot because of his size and position. Athletic American 7-footers who can play with their back to the basket are rare commodities; that fact should keep Oden at the top of scouts' charts for 2006, regardless of his performance at camps like these.

Mayo was absolutely dominant everywhere he played this year. But shouldn't he be? The fact he is the oldest sophomore in the country might have something to do with it. Mayo was born Nov. 5, 1987 which, at the high school level, gives him a clear advantage over others in his class. "He's two years older than most of the players he's playing against … he should be dominating them," one NBA scout said. Still, scouts won't be that deterred. Several already call him the best high school point guard in the country, impressive praise for a sophomore. And at 6-4, with great athleticism and court vision, he'll be a sure-fire hit in the NBA. But you're going to have to wait awhile.


The International Group
There's very little mystery these days about the top young international players in the world. NBA teams are now spending millions of dollars to go overseas and keep track of the best and brightest, and the word is getting out quickly.

Last year, three players rose from obscurity onto the NBA radar screen: Nemanja Aleksandrov of Serbia, Martynas Andriuskevicius of Lithuania and Rudy Fernandez of Spain. With huge targets now on their backs, and plans to enter the 2005 NBA draft, how did they fare this summer?


Fernandez knows no fear, according to one NBA scout.
No one helped himself more than Fernandez. He looked awesome playing for the Spanish national team in the Olympics. He did not play like one of the youngest players in the tournament. He was confident, aggressive and seemed to give the Spanish team a big burst of energy every time he stepped on the floor.

"The kid is gritty and aggressive," one NBA scout told Insider. "He won't back down from anyone. If he was playing against Vince Carter, he'd try to dunk on him. He just has no fear. He's also got the athleticism that is pretty rare for Europeans. I think he's going to be a fantastic prospect."

Others aren't as sure. One scout claims Fernandez's body is "underdeveloped" and believes he'll struggle to stay healthy in the NBA. Others question his size (they claim he's closer to 6-4) and his seeming unwillingness to play the point. "He's got all the skills to play the point guard position, but I've been told he just won't do it," one scout said. "He's fantastic on the wing, but in the pros, I think he'd have to play a little point, too, to make the biggest impact."

Andriuskevicius looked solid at the European Under-18 Championships in Zaragoza. He averaged 16.9 ppg and 13.4 rpg there but didn't exactly dominate. He is very skilled for a 7-3 player but still needs to get stronger if he's going to make an impact in the league. "His skill set is fantastic, but he disappears from games," one NBA scout said. "If things get physical, he doesn't always fight for it. That will come with time. Another year playing with Arvydas Sabonis is really going to help this kid. I think everyone has high hopes for him, but he's not there yet."

Aleksandrov was the biggest disappointment, though rumors that his draft stock is free-falling are a bit premature. Scouts were blown away by his performance in the camps last year, when he was 16. He was just so-so, however, at a tournament in Manheim, Germany, the Reebok Eurocamp in Treviso and at the Under 18 Championships in Zaragoza. He averaged 16 ppg and 8 rpg in Zaragoza, but he once again struggled with his perimeter shot and looked passive much of the time. Scouts expect to see some fire from young Serbian players, but Aleksandrov hasn't really shown that yet.

That fact is starting to scare some scouts, who boldly predicted last year that he'd be the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. Still, no one is ready to write him off, either. "From a skill standpoint, he's probably the most skilled 17-year-old big guy I've ever seen," one NBA international scout told Insider. "He has Toni Kukoc-like skills. His issues are well known. He doesn't play with a lot of passion. He doesn't seem to have a killer instinct. But we've got to keep reminding ourselves that he's just 17.

"He had a huge target on his chest this summer. Everyone was trying to shut him down. He still managed to put up pretty good numbers and was effective in the paint. I just think people expected him to improve dramatically the past year, and he didn't. But that may say more about the situation he's in than his talent. In my mind, he's still one of the top five or six prospects for next year."

We'll see. No one denies the talent. But NBA GMs have tired of fundamentally sound Europeans who look great in workouts and struggle in actual games. Aleksandrov might not fit into that category, but as the backlash grows more severe, he may suffer from it anyway.

France's Johan Petro also was trying to turn a positive performance in the Reebok Eurocamp into some draft buzz at Zaragoza. He averaged 14 points and 10 rebounds a game there, but many scouts are concerned about his work ethic and just average athleticism. "He left Treviso with a list of things he really needed to work on," one scout told Insider. "Some of them were simple things, like working on his flexibility and lateral quickness -- little drills you do to improve things like that. He didn't work on them. It was clear he was the same player. That's disappointing."

A few new players also appeared on the radar screen after a solid summer. Spanish point guard Sergio Rodriguez was the star of Zaragoza. He looked like a little John Stockton out there, running the offense to perfection and hitting an impressive 50 percent from the 3-point line. That's great news for Rodriguez, who was positively awful at the Nike Hoop Summit in San Antonio last spring. After seeing him play consistently well in Zaragoza, scouts seem willing to let the Hoop Summit disaster slide.

"I thought he was great," one NBA scout told Insider. "He has great floor vision and really understands the game. He's very clever, and it looks like his outside shot is improving. I still question whether he has the quickness to create his own shot in the NBA or to guard anybody, but he's a legit prospect. It may take him another year or two to be ready for the NBA, but we'll be watching."

We first wrote about Oleksiy Pecherov, a 6-11 forward from the Ukraine, last spring after he came out of nowhere to be one of the top players at the Reebok Eurocamp.

Since then he's gone from intriguing player to big-time NBA prospect with a dominating performance at the Global Games in Dallas. He had 31 points and 13 rebounds in the championship game. He averaged 24 ppg and 10 rpg for the tournament, leading the Ukraine to a surprise gold medal there. His ability to do just about everything -- shoot, rebound, defend and block shots -- have made him a big hit. His work ethic and leadership also made him a coaches' favorite at the Eurocamp. He might be another year or two away, but he's definitely one of the top 10 international prospects in the world now.

Another player that first hit the radar screens at the Reebok Eurocamp, Saer Sena, a 7-footer from Senegal who owns an amazing 7-foot-7½ wingspan (only Jamaal Magloire has a wider reach among NBA players), improved dramatically over the summer.

He played again for NBA scouts at the adidas Superstar Camp in Berlin and at the Africa 100 camp in Johannesburg and impressed at both places. He's still raw and too skinny, but he's very bouncy and shows a lot of aggressiveness, especially in blocking shots. Scouts claim it was close to impossible for anyone to get a shot off near him. He'll move on to Europe this year to begin playing against better competition. If he improves, he'll get a lot of love.

The biggest disappointment of the summer may have come from the guy many considered Europe's brightest star. Turkish forward Ersan Ilyasova was dominant in junior tournaments in the spring and summer, but suffered a serious injury this summer. Folks in Turkey are keeping quiet about the nature or extent of the injury, but several NBA scouts who inquired were told Ilyasova already has had two surgeries and isn't expected to play anytime soon. That's a major blow to a guy some scouts believed might be a better prospect than Aleksandrov.

Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.

Always the first poster of the day when I turn on my computer.

Good to have you back Raven.

Posted by fishmike:

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