https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/nba/2018/1/27/16940178/nba-achilles-injury-history-kevin-durant-golden-state-warriors-future

Not the free agency we wanted but we may have dodged a bullet. Kyrie is a headcase, never wanted him for the max. History says that even when he comes back KD isnt going to be a top player. The margins are thin in pro sports losing just a little bit off your jump is a huge deal

That was a very useful link. I think you're right about dodging a bullet. There's a chance he fully recovers, but not enough of a chance to take the risk.

According to a 2013 medical study that identified 18 players who suffered major Achilles injuries over a 23-year span (1988-2011), seven players never returned to the league. Players who returned missed an average of 56 games and saw their PER decline in their first and second seasons back. A 2015 CBS Sports article found that among 14 players who returned from Achilles injuries since 1992, they averaged fewer minutes while both their field goal and three-point percentages dropped, on average. There are very few complete success stories.