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Draft Lottery! (5/14 830pm ESPN)
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smackeddog
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5/14/2019  12:15 PM
SupremeCommander wrote:
technomaster wrote:It's been a bit quiet here regarding the draft. I think we've killed every topic.

definitely

we need some **** to pump us up

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jskinny35
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5/14/2019  12:18 PM
That's a good question - do they remove the #1 pick balls after it is selected or just keep redrawing if they keep picking them when they go on to # 2, #3, etc...

I can deal with drafting #5 but would be hard to swallow if either Dallas, Lakers or Heat moves up to draft Zion at #1... Dallas especially since we all imagined Zion playing next to KP in the garden (before the trade). Hope if a team moves up it's the Pelicans so maybe that helps AD stay so we don't loose Mitch and all our young guys

smackeddog
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5/14/2019  12:18 PM
martin
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5/14/2019  12:46 PM
smackeddog wrote:This might be a stupid question, but if each team gets a set of ball combinations, and then the machine spits out a set of numbers, after the first combination, what's to stop the machine continually spitting out the set of numbers that belong to a team who has already had their set drawn?

Short answer: they draw again until they get a combo that hasn't already been picked.

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smackeddog
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5/14/2019  1:12 PM    LAST EDITED: 5/14/2019  1:12 PM
martin wrote:
smackeddog wrote:This might be a stupid question, but if each team gets a set of ball combinations, and then the machine spits out a set of numbers, after the first combination, what's to stop the machine continually spitting out the set of numbers that belong to a team who has already had their set drawn?

Short answer: they draw again until they get a combo that hasn't already been picked.

Thanks, But I thought there were hundreds of combinations- wouldn't that make the process take hours rather than minutes?:

Beginning with the 2019 draft, the NBA changed the lottery odds as follows:

140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
140 combinations, 14.0% chance
140 combinations, 14.0% chance
125 combinations, 12.5% chance
105 combinations, 10.5% chance
90 combinations, 9.0% chance
75 combinations, 7.5% chance
60 combinations, 6.0% chance
45 combinations, 4.5% chance
30 combinations, 3.0% chance
20 combinations, 2.0% chance
15 combinations, 1.5% chance
10 combinations, 1.0% chance
5 combinations, 0.5% chance

martin
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5/14/2019  1:30 PM
technomaster wrote:It's been a bit quiet here regarding the draft. I think we've killed every topic. Now it's a matter of luck. In prior lotteries, it didn't really seem to matter much - we never were the very worst until this year and truly "deserving" of the top pick. We rationalized that our teams always went on winning streaks at the end while other teams were in full tank mode - dumb mgmt we said. Well this year we executed like nobody's business. We're primed for a full reset, we have draft picks to spare, cap space, and a few young assets (including the absolute best value in the league with Mitchell Robinson).

I'm nervous and excited. Most draft picks don't transform organizations. If I've got my data correct, LaMarcus Aldridge is the highest Knicks draft pick since Ewing (the Knicks traded a 1st round pick to Chicago for Eddy Curry, which ultimately became the #2 overall pick. Chicago traded that pick to Portland for the #4 pick in that draft, Tyrus Thomas).

It's like buying a lottery ticket. You know the odds are astronomically against you, but for a moment you dream of a better place. So let's take a moment here. If we manage to get the #1 overall pick and get Zion on the team... imagine the garden rocking when he gets his first dunk or makes his first game winning shot. Or, as third fiddle to Durant and Kyrie, helps us to the first playoff appearing in years.

Or when we say WTF when he's the centerpiece of a trade for Anthony Davis. :) (in an AD trade, we'd better get a 1st rounder back in that sort of deal - we're talking the difference between $27m cap hit vs $8m - we'd be doing the Pelicans a huge favor)

Feel like that's an understatement

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martin
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5/14/2019  1:32 PM
smackeddog wrote:
martin wrote:
smackeddog wrote:This might be a stupid question, but if each team gets a set of ball combinations, and then the machine spits out a set of numbers, after the first combination, what's to stop the machine continually spitting out the set of numbers that belong to a team who has already had their set drawn?

Short answer: they draw again until they get a combo that hasn't already been picked.

Thanks, But I thought there were hundreds of combinations- wouldn't that make the process take hours rather than minutes?:

Beginning with the 2019 draft, the NBA changed the lottery odds as follows:

140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
140 combinations, 14.0% chance
140 combinations, 14.0% chance
125 combinations, 12.5% chance
105 combinations, 10.5% chance
90 combinations, 9.0% chance
75 combinations, 7.5% chance
60 combinations, 6.0% chance
45 combinations, 4.5% chance
30 combinations, 3.0% chance
20 combinations, 2.0% chance
15 combinations, 1.5% chance
10 combinations, 1.0% chance
5 combinations, 0.5% chance

perhaps? I know these things are done ahead of time.... so that seem about right.

Realistically you only need to come up with a couple of different combos though right? Not all 13 slots need to be filled. The lottery only for the first X picks, and then you stop and everything is filled in according to order

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smackeddog
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5/14/2019  3:24 PM

So even if we beat the odds tonight (we won’t) and land The first, we still might not end up with Zion

BigDaddyG
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5/14/2019  3:34 PM
smackeddog wrote:


So even if we beat the odds tonight (we won’t) and land The first, we still might not end up with Zion

I'd take AD as a consolation prize.

Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
GustavBahler
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5/14/2019  3:43 PM
BigDaddyG wrote:
smackeddog wrote:


So even if we beat the odds tonight (we won’t) and land The first, we still might not end up with Zion

I'd take AD as a consolation prize.

We draft Zion and move him (along with Knox or Mitch) for Davis, Im done. Always be a Knicks fan, but I wont be following the team like I am now. Would be so Dolan era Knicks.

martin
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5/14/2019  3:45 PM
smackeddog wrote:

So even if we beat the odds tonight (we won’t) and land The first, we still might not end up with Zion

I'm gonna use round numbers here, but if you trade Knox ($4.5), Zion ($10M), LT+$3M in cash ($7.5M cap hit with $1 buyout) and say DSJr/Frank ($4.5) and take back a few bodies that are expiring on Pelicans end (OK4, Woods)

YOU STILL HAVE CAP SPACE FOR 2 MAX FA's

Maybe you are still left with Mitch and have room for KD and 2 $15M players.

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smackeddog
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5/14/2019  3:56 PM
martin wrote:
smackeddog wrote:

So even if we beat the odds tonight (we won’t) and land The first, we still might not end up with Zion

I'm gonna use round numbers here, but if you trade Knox ($4.5), Zion ($10M), LT+$3M in cash ($7.5M cap hit with $1 buyout) and say DSJr/Frank ($4.5) and take back a few bodies that are expiring on Pelicans end (OK4, Woods)

YOU STILL HAVE CAP SPACE FOR 2 MAX FA's

Maybe you are still left with Mitch and have room for KD and 2 $15M players.

The way I look at it, we’d play hardball with the pelicans- no 1 pick and maybe frank but no more. If you land AD that way and don’t go after KD, you end up saving a big chunk of money ($10mil less for AD, the $9mil from not having the no 1 pick salary, plus the $5mil or whatever from Frank). So you could then sign another max to pair with AD and have a big chunk of money to round out the roster- that would make the rumours of our interest in Rozier and Morris make sense.

fwk00
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5/14/2019  4:03 PM
If the Knicks land AD they've done good regardless of the details.

This is the way to transact assets.

If we land Zion and keep him, let the unrealistic expectations begin...

fwk00
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5/14/2019  4:11 PM
Nalod wrote:Nalodian mind process: Its not fair, but it is what it is. Resigned to 5th. Our Cap space and future of Knox, Mitch, Trier and perhaps Frank all have good upside.
A bit more tilted to the KD/KI strong sentiment.

Anything top three would be a great thing. A bonus. Math is not emotional and its cruel.

The problem is the odds are not with us but somebody with lower odds will advance/win/what ever you call it. That's the issue. Dallas jumps to top 5, I'll be pissed. Cleveland? I'll be pissed. Hawks? Damn!!! Suns? Ah man!!! So maybe that's it? I can live with us at the 5th but not others 1-2-3-4?? Perhaps!!!

The draft is an eternal crap shoot and the odds are against us, true. *But* that's true for everyone else as well. **But**, I too, will be pissed if a team with very thin odds is cosmically jettisoned into a great pick. This past twenty-five years have been absolutely brutal. The karmic wheel can't be that blind.

fwk00
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5/14/2019  4:20 PM    LAST EDITED: 5/14/2019  4:25 PM
So who we drafting at 55?


Isaiah Roby?

Cartman718
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5/14/2019  4:32 PM
Fun fact
Nixluva is posting triangle screen grabs, even when nobody asks - Fishmike. LOL So are we going to reference that thread like the bible now? "The thread of Wroten Page 14 post 9" - EnySpree
Chandler
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5/14/2019  5:04 PM
I might be crazy but I think regardless where we land we should be in good position for AD. Lakers are offering a bunch of players who can't win and with the exception of Kuzma have egos bigger than their game. Pass.
Celts unless they include Tatum will be inferior. Brown has been inconsistent (needs talent around him) and all the other picks could be mediocre JAGs. Plus AD doesn't want to be there so that might make Ainge hold back. Also the Pels would be well advised to look at any Celts trade and see if the other team came away better: KG for Jefferson and ?? c'mon; broken down IT and ?? for Kyrie; broken down KG and PP for king's ransom. See a trend. Note to Pels -- why would you even answer the call?

I also think if Knicks swing a trade for AD, it will show we had no idea or real interest in how to develop players. We got worse at D and worse at passing. Fizz is already saying he needs new guys for D because he doesn't know how to teach that apparently, even though some were lead to believe that was his forte'. The best way to fix this mess (for this regime) is get a bunch of players who already know how to play. What Fizz really knows how to do is appease star players to do their thing, and get the JAGs to play maximum effort. (exception: if youre a European big man you don't fit in; or maybe if you're a European guard too)

Having said that, getting two or three studs will translates to wins and playoff. FO and coaching staff get to keep your jobs for another few years (their prime objective IMO). And if things break right and you win a championship statues will be place in front of MSG. Missing ingredient is still a very good pg and team chemistry.

FWIW, I still can't see Knicks passing on Zion.

If Knicks can't choose Zion, I'd prefer Morant or Garland because they seem talented and our pg corps has tons of warts and there's no sign they'll be very good any time soon. Also not that interested in wings who can score but not elite shooters, or guys who are defense -- hoping to improve on offense. Sometimes those don't pan out all that great, see Frank, Josh Jackson.


Not everyone is going to be Steph Curry but you need to be able to nail an open shot consistently in today's game.

Martin: Hezonja will be in the NBA next year. Martin was right; I was wrong. :-(
BigDaddyG
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5/14/2019  5:11 PM
GustavBahler wrote:
BigDaddyG wrote:
smackeddog wrote:


So even if we beat the odds tonight (we won’t) and land The first, we still might not end up with Zion

I'd take AD as a consolation prize.

We draft Zion and move him (along with Knox or Mitch) for Davis, Im done. Always be a Knicks fan, but I wont be following the team like I am now. Would be so Dolan era Knicks.


If it's Knox, I do that deal NOW!!!!! I'd be more hesitant if we have to include Mitch. That might make me decline. It all depends what happens in free agency in the end.
Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
smackeddog
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5/14/2019  5:24 PM
Love that espn are rehearsing us landing the 5th pick:

That would actually be horrific as the Mavs end up 2nd

fwk00
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5/14/2019  5:24 PM
Chandler wrote:I might be crazy but I think regardless where we land we should be in good position for AD. Lakers are offering a bunch of players who can't win and with the exception of Kuzma have egos bigger than their game. Pass.
Celts unless they include Tatum will be inferior. Brown has been inconsistent (needs talent around him) and all the other picks could be mediocre JAGs. Plus AD doesn't want to be there so that might make Ainge hold back. Also the Pels would be well advised to look at any Celts trade and see if the other team came away better: KG for Jefferson and ?? c'mon; broken down IT and ?? for Kyrie; broken down KG and PP for king's ransom. See a trend. Note to Pels -- why would you even answer the call?

I also think if Knicks swing a trade for AD, it will show we had no idea or real interest in how to develop players. We got worse at D and worse at passing. Fizz is already saying he needs new guys for D because he doesn't know how to teach that apparently, even though some were lead to believe that was his forte'. The best way to fix this mess (for this regime) is get a bunch of players who already know how to play. What Fizz really knows how to do is appease star players to do their thing, and get the JAGs to play maximum effort. (exception: if youre a European big man you don't fit in; or maybe if you're a European guard too)

Having said that, getting two or three studs will translates to wins and playoff. FO and coaching staff get to keep your jobs for another few years (their prime objective IMO). And if things break right and you win a championship statues will be place in front of MSG. Missing ingredient is still a very good pg and team chemistry.

FWIW, I still can't see Knicks passing on Zion.

If Knicks can't choose Zion, I'd prefer Morant or Garland because they seem talented and our pg corps has tons of warts and there's no sign they'll be very good any time soon. Also not that interested in wings who can score but not elite shooters, or guys who are defense -- hoping to improve on offense. Sometimes those don't pan out all that great, see Frank, Josh Jackson.


Not everyone is going to be Steph Curry but you need to be able to nail an open shot consistently in today's game.

You aren't crazy. The other deals have players who have fizzled in the playoffs or by seasons end.

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