http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/zachlowe26597367/nba-playoff-winners-losers-russ-dame-warriorsRussell Westbrook
The only important question for the Thunder after their third straight post-Kevin Durant flameout is whether this season signals the beginning of a long-term decline for Westbrook -- and what, if anything, they can do if they believe it does.
It's not really that Westbrook -- after four knee surgeries in six years -- is perhaps the worst high-volume 3-point shooter ever. He is, but that's almost trivial -- a punchline. He has always been a bad 3-point shooter; he's just worse now, so bricky that opponents are braver taking an extra step away from him when he doesn't have the ball. And as has been the case for the entirety of his career -- see last season's version of this same column -- Westbrook has never been much interested in making himself useful when he doesn't have the ball.
Paul George is the only long-range threat Thunder opponents guard off the ball. George running a pick-and-roll is the NBA's "Jon Snow wielding a sword alone against an entire charging army" meme.
The real issue is that Westbrook's shot has deserted him inside the arc. He emerged as an MVP candidate in part because he became reliable -- 40 percent-plus -- on what he calls his "cotton shot" from the elbow.
He hit 32 percent on jumpers from between 15 and 19 feet this season, per NBA.com. Of 104 players who attempted at least three pull-up jumpers per game, Westbrook ranked 104th in accuracy. Against Portland, he alternated between looking afraid to take them, and burying the Thunder under a pile of endless misses.
His dunks are down, and he could not always summon the explosive midair fury that once busted conventional defenses.
The Blazers dropped Enes Kanter far back in the pick-and-roll, and dared Westbrook to blow through him. Westbrook couldn't do it.
His defense, overrated for years, came and went even in one of his most focused seasons. Portland's monster Game 5 fourth-quarter comeback started with a sloppy Westbrook closeout on CJ McCollum in the right corner, opening the door for an easy floater -- a sequence that would be repeated on the opposite side four-plus minutes later. He still dies on screens, loitering around half court.
In his MVP season, the Thunder could not survive without him. This season, they were a disaster whenever Westbrook played without George -- while thriving in the opposite scenario. That continued in the playoffs; the Thunder were plus-13 in 39 George-only minutes against the Blazers. Portland obliterated them by 33 points in 32 Westbrook solo minutes, per NBA.com.
Westbrook is still a very good player. I selected him third-team All-NBA. He's just not as good as he used to be. He lost some of what made him an MVP candidate, and refined none of the weak spots in his game.
His mega-max contract runs through 2022-23, when Westbrook will be 34. The Thunder are capped out through at least 2020-21. Setting aside the James Harden trade -- yeah, I know -- Sam Presti has used magic to keep this thin, rickety roster afloat. He thinks years in advance, and tracks devalued young players -- Victor Oladipo, for instance -- because he knows they will carry trade cachet if an opportunity arises. He has somehow turned disgruntled players and bad contracts into semi-helpful things: Reggie Jackson became Enes Kanter became Carmelo Anthony became Dennis Schroder. When does the music stop?
A poor shooter needs shooters around him. Oklahoma City has been thin on shooting for Presti's entire run. His track record suggests a fetish for long, defense-first tweeners, and some faith the Thunder can teach such players to shoot. They have failed. Andre Roberson was dynamic enough on defense to thrive in the highest-stakes moments, but he's hurt. Most of the other long-shot bets busted.
Most late first-round picks bust. Most "second draft" prospects -- e.g., Dion Waiters -- just are what they are. If shooters who could survive on defense were easy to find, every team would have a bunch.
But good teams stay good as their stars age because they nail a couple of long-shot bets. One of the Thunder's stars -- the remaining foundational Thunder star, the one they in many ways chose over Harden -- appears to be aging, and aging badly. Presti surely has a plan, even as he appears pinned in by cap realities. Let's see what it is.
4/25/2019 11:49 AM
