knicks1248 wrote:Not to mention that the #1 pick in the draft is usually not the best player in the draft, and thats what makes tanking so damn stupid.<snip>
Hmm. I challenge this assertion. Let's look at the last 10 drafts and who I think is the tops NOW, but I'm also including some other names alongside who we could easily put in the debate for at least 2 seasons.
2018: Seems to be Doncic #3, though Ayton #1 is quite good. Per minute, Bagley #3 is putting up numbers.
2017: Mitchell #13. Tatum #3 has flashed brilliance on a deep team, Fox #5 and Markannen #7 are developing nicely and seem to have more statistical impact than Tatum.( Fultz has been injured/likely bust.
2016: Ben Simmons #1. Jamal Murray #7 is developing quite well too. Brogdon #36 was ROY - his value was a major game changer for the Bucks, who basically got a top 5 player in the draft in the 2nd round!
2015: KAT #1. Though Devin Booker #13 is debatably better. D'Angelo Russell #2 has quietly become a stat stuffing all-star in year 4. Then there's the Unicorn #4.
2014: Embiid #3, though he basically didn't play for the first 2 years and was a risky pick. Jokic #41 plays a very different game and may be more of a difference maker. (Wiggins #1 is solid too and took home ROY, but isn't Lebron II as predicted)
2013: Giannis #15. Oladipo isn't far behind #2. Same for Gobert #27. Anthony Bennett #1 was a major bust. MCW #11 gets special mention as the ROY, but has missed 28+ games/year for the past 5 seasons. He's not even a shadow of his rookie self. Oladipo and Gobert took a while to emerge as stars.
2012: Anthony Davis #1. Lillard #6, Beal #3, and Drummond #9. Without Draymond Green #35, the dynasty Warriors might not be a dynasty.
2011: Heh, basically most of this year's FA crop come from this draft. Kawhi #15. Kyrie #1 is right up there, as are Kemba #9 and Klay #11, Jimmy Butler #30. Just 2 years ago, Isaiah Thomas #60 would have been near the top of this list. And 3 years in, Chandler Parsons #38 would have been right there with the top guys. Kyrie was the best in 3+ out of 7.5 seasons - he's mostly hampered by missing 20+ games in 4 seasons.
2010: Paul George #10. John Wall #1, Boogie Cousins #5, and even Gordon Hayward #9 have all staked some claim at the best player of this class, but injuries, yo! Wall was the best in 4+ out of ~8.5 seasons.
2009: Steph Curry #7. James Harden #3, Blake Griffin #1, DeRozan #9 have all flashed all-NBA type of seasons. Griffin was the best of the bunch in 4 of those years.
For "now", I see the #1 pick being the best in 3/10 drafts (2016, 2015, 2012), and certainly deep in the conversation for best in 4 more (2018, 2011, 2010, and 2009). 7/10 is pretty good.
As for the remaining 3: 2017 (Fultz) is looking like a bust right now mostly due to injury - but note that his former teammate Embiid didn't even play in his first 2 seasons and look at him now!), 2014 (Wiggins) is good, just isn't awesome (but he won ROY!), 2013 (Bennett) is the worst #1 pick in the history of the NBA.
Teams hit on 5/10 on the #3 overall pick, followed by 4/10 on the #9 pick (Clearly DSJ is destined to follow this trend).
My scoring scale:
#1 pick: 7 mentions (Ayton, Simmons, KAT, Davis, Kyrie, Wall, Griffin)
#2 pick: 2 mentions (Bagley, Russell, Oladipo)
#3 pick: 5 mentions (Doncic, Tatum, Embiid, Beal, Harden)
#4 pick: 1 mention (KP)
#5 pick: 1 mention (Fox, Cousins)
#6 pick: 1 mention (Lillard)
#7 pick: 2 mentions (Markannen, Curry, Murray)
#8 pick: none
#9 pick: 4 mentions (Drummond, Walker, Hayward, DeRozan)
#10 pick: 1 mention (PG13)
#11 pick: 2 mentions (Klay, MCW)
Later first round: Mitchell #13, Giannis #15, Leonard #15, Gobert #27, Butler #30.
Second round: Draymond #35, Brogdon #36, Parsons #38, Thomas #60
I think when you score with non-lottery pick, they really can change the complexion of a franchise. You're basically adding a top player to a team that "should be" a playoff-caliber team. Of course, any draft "win" looks even better if it was another team's pick.