14.0% chance to land Zion
27.4% chance to land one of Zion or Ja
40.1% chance to land one of Zion, Ja and Barrett

Those are good odds, for three very good players. The first three teams each have these same odds for the first three spots

Team 4 has 36.6% chance at one of the top 3
Team 5 has 21.7% chance at one of the top 3

The format has essentially gone from top 1 heavy to top 3 heavy because of they have changed the odds.

GoNyGoNyGo wrote:HOw does the worse record get a 47.9% chance to pick 5th? That makes no sense to me. Bottom 3 teams should have a 75% chance of those picks...and 25 to be worse...

I think it will ultimately be a mess (what happens if the worst teams each year keep lucking out, falling to 5th, 6th, 7th)- how the heck are they meant to get better? At least up until now, if your team was awful you had a good shot at a top 3 pick to turn the franchise around. If your team was middling bad, you could trade away your players and tank. There was a feeling of autonomy. Now it's pot luck, and very bad teams could end up being very bad for a much loner period of time, especially when you factor in the miss rate for drafted players working out.

'Stop tanking' was a concept that sounded good, but in reality it's going to be pretty grim for some teams.

smackeddog wrote:

GoNyGoNyGo wrote:HOw does the worse record get a 47.9% chance to pick 5th? That makes no sense to me. Bottom 3 teams should have a 75% chance of those picks...and 25 to be worse...

I think it will ultimately be a mess (what happens if the worst teams each year keep lucking out, falling to 5th, 6th, 7th)- how the heck are they meant to get better? At least up until now, if your team was awful you had a good shot at a top 3 pick to turn the franchise around. If your team was middling bad, you good trade away your players and tank. There was a feeling of autonomy. Now it's pot luck, and very bad teams could end up being very bad for a much loner period of time, especially when you factor in the miss rate for drafted players working out.

'Stop tanking' was a concept that sounded good, but in reality it's going to be pretty grim for some teams.

The only way to eradicate tanking is rotate 2 worst teams out of the NBA to minor league.
This of course required this minor league to exist.
Basketball with all the hoopla is not even close to sucker is popularity so this is not happening.
So tanking cannot be eradicated.

arkrud wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

GoNyGoNyGo wrote:HOw does the worse record get a 47.9% chance to pick 5th? That makes no sense to me. Bottom 3 teams should have a 75% chance of those picks...and 25 to be worse...

I think it will ultimately be a mess (what happens if the worst teams each year keep lucking out, falling to 5th, 6th, 7th)- how the heck are they meant to get better? At least up until now, if your team was awful you had a good shot at a top 3 pick to turn the franchise around. If your team was middling bad, you good trade away your players and tank. There was a feeling of autonomy. Now it's pot luck, and very bad teams could end up being very bad for a much loner period of time, especially when you factor in the miss rate for drafted players working out.

'Stop tanking' was a concept that sounded good, but in reality it's going to be pretty grim for some teams.

The only way to eradicate tanking is rotate 2 worst teams out of the NBA to minor league.
This of course required this minor league to exist.
Basketball with all the hoopla is not even close to sucker is popularity so this is not happening.
So tanking cannot be eradicated.

My point is- is tanking really a problem that must be eradicated? I've found our tank games against other tanking teams very exciting over the years, as have most fans. Tanking is fun when you don't have a shot at the playoffs, it helps fans of those teams to stay engaged. Plus it's actually really hard to lose the number of games you need to to have the worst record.

Moonangie wrote:I ran the same experiment just now...results follow:

1st pick... 3 times
2nd pick... 1 time
3rd pick... 2 times
4th pick... 1 time
5th pick... 3 times

It's all about LUCK! Tanking is VERY important for these last 26 games. Top 5 pick is essential, top 3 would be franchise changing (i.e., superstar or at least starter).

Did you reset, then sim lottery?

GoNyGoNyGo wrote:HOw does the worse record get a 47.9% chance to pick 5th? That makes no sense to me. Bottom 3 teams should have a 75% chance of those picks...and 25 to be worse...

That's close to how it used to be, led to all this tanking

2014. #3 Joel Embiid. #5 Dante Exum. #6 Marcus Smart
2015. #3 Jahlil Okafor. #5 Hezonja. #6 Cauley-Stein
2016. #3 Jaylen Brown. #5 Kris Dunn. #6 Buddy Hield
2017. #3 Jason Tatum. #5 De'Aaron Fox. #6 Johnathan Isaac (who???)
2018. #3 Doncic. #5. Trae Young. #6 Mohammed Bamba

It's not rocket science, but the farther from #1 in the lottery, the odds of a full blown bust are greater. High ceiling, high bust factor. Hypothetically strong tools, but undeveloped games.

Interesting in the mid-late first round, I think you start getting lower ceiling, high floor players. Older players/late bloomers.

That's not to say that there aren't draft mistakes. If there were a redraft, Mitchell Robinson would be a lottery pick ahead of Kevin Knox - That's how excellent a draft steal Robinson is! He's the type of low risk gamble that can change a franchise.

But... there's a gap still between what you get with Ayton and Doncic and Mitchell, so if you have a chance to give yourself the best possible odds with the highest floor, you do it.