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Knicks draft odds explained
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EnySpree
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2/11/2019  6:06 PM

This should clarify it for people that are confused...

Discuss

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EnySpree
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2/11/2019  6:42 PM
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GustavBahler
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2/11/2019  6:49 PM
Knicks have never picked higher than where they where slotted to pick, based on the odds. Its about Mojo baby, mojo. Maybe we've got it this year the way the franchise is thinking long term, and short term. Trying to cover all the bases.
meloshouldgo
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2/11/2019  7:00 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/11/2019  7:46 PM
EnySpree wrote:

This should clarify it for people that are confused...

Discuss

It's on the tankathon website as well. Basically our combined odds of landing top 4(52.1%) is slightly higher than landing at the fifth(47.9%), if we remain the worst record in the NBA. The further away you go the more your chances of landing out of the top 5. It's imperative we stay at #30, otherwise we may skip further out. In this draft you have some choices up top but after Zion, Ja and Barrett it's quite a dropoff.

I cannot teach anybody anything. I can only try to make them think - Socrates
meloshouldgo
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2/11/2019  10:51 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/11/2019  10:52 PM
Last year's format would have given us 25% chance to win the first spot. But the history of the lottery shows teams with highest odds don't win as often they should.

14.0% chance to land Zion
27.4% chance to land one of Zion or Ja
40.1% chance to land one of Zion, Ja and Barrett

Those are good odds, for three very good players. The first three teams each have these same odds for the first three spots

Team 4 has 36.6% chance at one of the top 3
Team 5 has 21.7% chance at one of the top 3

The format has essentially gone from top 1 heavy to top 3 heavy because of they have changed the odds.

I cannot teach anybody anything. I can only try to make them think - Socrates
GoNyGoNyGo
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2/12/2019  11:35 AM    LAST EDITED: 2/12/2019  11:39 AM
HOw does the worse record get a 47.9% chance to pick 5th? That makes no sense to me. Bottom 3 teams should have a 75% chance of those picks...and 25 to be worse...
Yet another mistake by Dolan. When will it end?
smackeddog
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2/12/2019  11:53 AM    LAST EDITED: 2/12/2019  1:00 PM
GoNyGoNyGo wrote:HOw does the worse record get a 47.9% chance to pick 5th? That makes no sense to me. Bottom 3 teams should have a 75% chance of those picks...and 25 to be worse...

I think it will ultimately be a mess (what happens if the worst teams each year keep lucking out, falling to 5th, 6th, 7th)- how the heck are they meant to get better? At least up until now, if your team was awful you had a good shot at a top 3 pick to turn the franchise around. If your team was middling bad, you could trade away your players and tank. There was a feeling of autonomy. Now it's pot luck, and very bad teams could end up being very bad for a much loner period of time, especially when you factor in the miss rate for drafted players working out.

'Stop tanking' was a concept that sounded good, but in reality it's going to be pretty grim for some teams.

Nalod
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2/12/2019  12:05 PM
I ran tankathon 10 times. Each time I reset then hit the "Sim Lottery"

1st pick 1 time
2nd pick 2 times
3rd pick 0 times
4th pick 2 times
5th pick 5 times

About right. It only happens once. Once the clippers came 13 spots to take Zion!!! Ouch.
Guys, might as well get used to the fact the weight is heavy on the 5th pick.

You don't show a fool a job half done!
arkrud
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2/12/2019  12:34 PM
smackeddog wrote:
GoNyGoNyGo wrote:HOw does the worse record get a 47.9% chance to pick 5th? That makes no sense to me. Bottom 3 teams should have a 75% chance of those picks...and 25 to be worse...

I think it will ultimately be a mess (what happens if the worst teams each year keep lucking out, falling to 5th, 6th, 7th)- how the heck are they meant to get better? At least up until now, if your team was awful you had a good shot at a top 3 pick to turn the franchise around. If your team was middling bad, you good trade away your players and tank. There was a feeling of autonomy. Now it's pot luck, and very bad teams could end up being very bad for a much loner period of time, especially when you factor in the miss rate for drafted players working out.

'Stop tanking' was a concept that sounded good, but in reality it's going to be pretty grim for some teams.

The only way to eradicate tanking is rotate 2 worst teams out of the NBA to minor league.
This of course required this minor league to exist.
Basketball with all the hoopla is not even close to sucker is popularity so this is not happening.
So tanking cannot be eradicated.

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
Moonangie
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2/12/2019  12:36 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/12/2019  12:37 PM
I ran the same experiment just now...results follow:

1st pick... 3 times
2nd pick... 1 time
3rd pick... 2 times
4th pick... 1 time
5th pick... 3 times

It's all about LUCK! Tanking is VERY important for these last 26 games. Top 5 pick is essential, top 3 would be franchise changing (i.e., superstar or at least starter).

smackeddog
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2/12/2019  1:02 PM
arkrud wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
GoNyGoNyGo wrote:HOw does the worse record get a 47.9% chance to pick 5th? That makes no sense to me. Bottom 3 teams should have a 75% chance of those picks...and 25 to be worse...

I think it will ultimately be a mess (what happens if the worst teams each year keep lucking out, falling to 5th, 6th, 7th)- how the heck are they meant to get better? At least up until now, if your team was awful you had a good shot at a top 3 pick to turn the franchise around. If your team was middling bad, you good trade away your players and tank. There was a feeling of autonomy. Now it's pot luck, and very bad teams could end up being very bad for a much loner period of time, especially when you factor in the miss rate for drafted players working out.

'Stop tanking' was a concept that sounded good, but in reality it's going to be pretty grim for some teams.

The only way to eradicate tanking is rotate 2 worst teams out of the NBA to minor league.
This of course required this minor league to exist.
Basketball with all the hoopla is not even close to sucker is popularity so this is not happening.
So tanking cannot be eradicated.

My point is- is tanking really a problem that must be eradicated? I've found our tank games against other tanking teams very exciting over the years, as have most fans. Tanking is fun when you don't have a shot at the playoffs, it helps fans of those teams to stay engaged. Plus it's actually really hard to lose the number of games you need to to have the worst record.

smackeddog
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2/12/2019  1:04 PM
Moonangie wrote:I ran the same experiment just now...results follow:

1st pick... 3 times
2nd pick... 1 time
3rd pick... 2 times
4th pick... 1 time
5th pick... 3 times

It's all about LUCK! Tanking is VERY important for these last 26 games. Top 5 pick is essential, top 3 would be franchise changing (i.e., superstar or at least starter).

I get nalod's results most of the time- most common spot we land on is 5th, which is right on what the odds state. That's going to depress me on lottery day! Whats interesting is the number of times a much better team leaps into the top 3, when I run it.

Nalod
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2/12/2019  1:05 PM
Moonangie wrote:I ran the same experiment just now...results follow:

1st pick... 3 times
2nd pick... 1 time
3rd pick... 2 times
4th pick... 1 time
5th pick... 3 times

It's all about LUCK! Tanking is VERY important for these last 26 games. Top 5 pick is essential, top 3 would be franchise changing (i.e., superstar or at least starter).

Did you reset, then sim lottery?

You don't show a fool a job half done!
Nalod
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2/12/2019  1:11 PM
smackeddog wrote:
Moonangie wrote:I ran the same experiment just now...results follow:

1st pick... 3 times
2nd pick... 1 time
3rd pick... 2 times
4th pick... 1 time
5th pick... 3 times

It's all about LUCK! Tanking is VERY important for these last 26 games. Top 5 pick is essential, top 3 would be franchise changing (i.e., superstar or at least starter).

I get nalod's results most of the time- most common spot we land on is 5th, which is right on what the odds state. That's going to depress me on lottery day! Whats interesting is the number of times a much better team leaps into the top 3, when I run it.



I had an instance when clippers jumped 13 spots to get no 1!! Phuck!!!!
If we are last, Im just going into this with the 5th pick in mind and anything better is just gravy!
I hate that we are in thei predicament but its not like we "Chose to tank" this year vs. others.
It happened. Kwame Brown happened, Anthony Bennet happened. Oka4 happened.
If we are still cellar dweller then we have the best odds. Not much consolation. Sure my inner "Rainman" comes out because im human and infallible. I think its a good rule and discourages Tanking. No way around it and NBA won't demote to Gleague its worst teams.
You don't show a fool a job half done!
meloshouldgo
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2/12/2019  1:12 PM
GoNyGoNyGo wrote:HOw does the worse record get a 47.9% chance to pick 5th? That makes no sense to me. Bottom 3 teams should have a 75% chance of those picks...and 25 to be worse...

That's close to how it used to be, led to all this tanking

I cannot teach anybody anything. I can only try to make them think - Socrates
fishmike
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2/12/2019  1:20 PM
every time I run that simulator I think we are screwed as it constantly has us picking 5th

This looks like a 1 player and the rest draft. After Zion Ja looks like a nice consolation prize. After Ja its a total crap shoot. Barrett is good but nothing says franchise talent in this after Zion and maybe Ja

technomaster
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2/12/2019  1:35 PM
Heh. Here's a sampling from the last 5 drafts what you get at #3 vs #5 & #6.

2014. #3 Joel Embiid. #5 Dante Exum. #6 Marcus Smart
2015. #3 Jahlil Okafor. #5 Hezonja. #6 Cauley-Stein
2016. #3 Jaylen Brown. #5 Kris Dunn. #6 Buddy Hield
2017. #3 Jason Tatum. #5 De'Aaron Fox. #6 Johnathan Isaac (who???)
2018. #3 Doncic. #5. Trae Young. #6 Mohammed Bamba

It's not rocket science, but the farther from #1 in the lottery, the odds of a full blown bust are greater. High ceiling, high bust factor. Hypothetically strong tools, but undeveloped games.

Interesting in the mid-late first round, I think you start getting lower ceiling, high floor players. Older players/late bloomers.

That's not to say that there aren't draft mistakes. If there were a redraft, Mitchell Robinson would be a lottery pick ahead of Kevin Knox - That's how excellent a draft steal Robinson is! He's the type of low risk gamble that can change a franchise.

But... there's a gap still between what you get with Ayton and Doncic and Mitchell, so if you have a chance to give yourself the best possible odds with the highest floor, you do it.

Kevin Dolorico | "That was two, two from the heart." - John Starks
Nalod
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2/12/2019  1:51 PM
fishmike wrote:every time I run that simulator I think we are screwed as it constantly has us picking 5th

This looks like a 1 player and the rest draft. After Zion Ja looks like a nice consolation prize. After Ja its a total crap shoot. Barrett is good but nothing says franchise talent in this after Zion and maybe Ja

Even Tankathon has it in for the knicks!!!!

You don't show a fool a job half done!
Nalod
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2/12/2019  1:53 PM
Nash, Gianis, Curry.......MVP's taken way off no. 1.
You don't show a fool a job half done!
smackeddog
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2/12/2019  2:22 PM
fishmike wrote:every time I run that simulator I think we are screwed as it constantly has us picking 5th

This looks like a 1 player and the rest draft. After Zion Ja looks like a nice consolation prize. After Ja its a total crap shoot. Barrett is good but nothing says franchise talent in this after Zion and maybe Ja

Yep, tankathon is no friend of ours

Knicks draft odds explained

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