fwk00 wrote:Trip, I think where we disagree is in the metrics that every once in a while get published about the turning point for an NBA point guard (other positions vary). And the magic number of NBA years is 5 for point guards. There are obviously notable exceptions on either side of that number.My observation on this is that it may be more of an indication of front office stability than anything the player can control.
Teams stuck in the perpetual mediocrity cycle have a profile.
My point is that the Knicks by dedicating themselves to an implicitly painful rebuild process are taking advantage of the by-product of this talent turnstile. That is, quite specifically, that other teams have already paid the front-loaded cost of these lottery picks.
As far as I can tell, rolling the dice on former top ten picks is just as inexpensive and effective as running second-rounders on the floor.
I don't think the Knicks are as bereft of talent as you think. They are loaded.
I see your point. You are making good points.
Something to consider is these other point guards who needed five years to realize their full skill set, I'd still argue many offered at least a passable floor of production to stay in the rotation and give indication that the then current floor still held value. Billups was used as an example ( I don't think he's a good cross example though) Billups was always a good defender. That was at least a bedrock to build upon. Mudiay offers zero 3 And D value.
If team gives up on a player during the timeline of his rookie contract ( by either low value trade or simply not picking up the 3rd/4th year option, that player is just not very good. ( Or to point, he was not very good with that team) We can mince the outer circumstances of the overall franchise, but the player was just not productive. This is where the question of major injury or limited minutes come into play. ( Both these things applied to Billups)
Here is where we are going to diverge.
This is the current Rookie Wage Scale
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2018/07/rookie-scale-salaries-for-2018-first-round-picks.html
Mudiay was the 7th pick in his draft. I recognize his draft was a while ago and the scale has gone up. ( Mudiay's rookie deal was a 4/14, with this last year as a 4.3 million salary)
Wendell Carter was this years 7th. His deal was a 4/22, ranging from 4.4 to 6.9.
I'll use the Suns as an example because they have a lot of young players. They picked Okobo in the 2nd round with the top pick in that round.
He was signed to a 4 year/5.7 million dollar contract. ( 1.2 / 1.4 / 1.6 / 1.8 ) The 3rd/4th years are team options. The Suns can walk away totally for 2.6 million.
They traded for DeAnthony Melton ( quite like him) the 46th player in his draft. So we have an example of a mid 2nd round guy. He was signed to a guaranteed 2 year/2.4 million contract. His first year is less than a million dollars.
You could pay the entire guaranteed portions of Melton and Okobo's deals ( four years of cost control) for just a little less than Carter's first year's salary alone. For just a little more than Carter's 4th year option alone, you could get six years of cost control from both players.
Now Mudiay's deal is scaled back to a different CBA and timeline.
But even at 4.3 for this last year, you could get , with a little more, FOUR YEARS of the top pick in the 2nd round on your squad. Someone who is still in their prime developmental window.
Here's the other problem, when the Knicks get a guy in his 4th year, they must make a contract assessment on him quickly. He could flame out ( most) but in the rare case he does well, it's a question of betting against one solid season against the previous three where the lack of production is why he was available in the first place. You are NOT getting the full benefit of the cost control aka COST CERTAINTY with the rookie deal. '
The Knicks are NOT taking advantage of anything. They are getting a player outside of his prime developmental window, who has flamed out somewhere else before, at a greater cost and risk question than a 2nd round pick. The reason the Knicks didn't give the roster spot to a 2nd round pick was because PHIL JACKSON KEPT TRADING THEM OFF. LIKE AN IDIOT. Yes, they got MRob with a 2nd, but they could have had way more 2nds available over time if they did not trade them off.
Would you rather have Okobo for a little more in salary overall, but for four years? Compared to Mudiay in his 4th? ( And remember, I'm scaling it to Mudiay's slotting, if I used Carter's, it would be even more of a contrast for that 4th year i.e. 6.9)
Would you rather have Melton ( assuming the Knicks aren't getting a top 2nd round pick) for LESS than Mudiay's 4th year for a grand sum of 2.4 million for two years?
Even if Melton and Okobo were busts ( but they are both better players than Mudiay right now, that's just sad), and just gave you what Mudiay gave you on the average ( not this outlier month but the reality of his averages across his career), they'd STILL BE CHEAPER.
The Knicks are not loaded, they have one very elite prospect ( Zinger) in his prime developmental window. They have a bunch of other guys in their prime developmental window. They are not loaded with talent. They are in a better direction than before. But how hard is that?
Let's go to the 10th pick in the Rookie Wage Scale to find a baseline, since you said former 10 ten picks. 3.5 to 5.5.
Now if Mudiay was a better player, I'd see the argument working more in line with what you are saying. He's doing more, he's giving more, so he's making more. What is he giving? Not even league average defense. A league average three point shot? No. Elite conditioning all across his career? ( working out when your back is to the wall doesn't count) Even show average BBIQ? ( Does he cut well? Move off the ball well? Operate in close contact well? Switch and rotate well? Close out well? Anticipate movement on the floor? Run the defense? Make defensive calls or adjustments? Show situational awareness? Does he know how to feed teammates to exploit mismatches? Excel in transition? Does he use his size well, when he's not falling down...Is he a good decision maker with less than five seconds on the shot clock? Does he know how to pace a game, help get a cold hand going, work the refs, exploit what the defense is giving him? Can he lock down the passing lanes? )
A 2nd round pick might, and likely would bust. But is he gonna give you less than Mudiay if you gave said rookie 30 plus minutes a night and 20 plus shots a night plus allowed to be ball dominant and call his own number at will?
But will that 2nd round pick give you possibly more in a ROLE, like only playing 10 minutes a night or only getting five shots in a game?
A 2nd round pick does not need to equalize Mudiay. If he gave 50 percent of Mudiays RELATIVE production at a fraction of the cost, he's a massive value over Mudiay.
It is NOT AN EFFECTIVE STRATEGY. You know what is an effective strategy? DUMPING SUNK COSTS.
Orlando saw Hezonja as a sunk cost and dumped him. Not worth the 5 percent chance of being something else to risk the 95 percent chance he'd still suck for them. Give the minutes, roster spot and cap space to someone else who might develop.
Phil Jackson took a bad situation and made it horrible. He ****ed up the cap sheet. And he dumped out 2nd round picks that were insanely valuable. That's it. This is why Mudiay is on the roster.
