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How overrated is Kanter? It's complicated....
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BigDaddyG
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9/5/2018  3:41 PM
https://www.postingandtoasting.com/2018/9/5/17800260/do-empty-stats-exist
Do ‘empty stats’ exist?
51
Enes Kanter needs to forget about DRE
By Drew Steele@ScooterToots Sep 5, 2018, 9:30am EDT
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Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
It’s an important question to ask: do empty statistics exist in basketball? Short answer: no… per se. However, you’re reading this with the intention of me expanding on the topic, so I will continue. This concept of production not leading to value on the court or team wins is a fascinating one. Whether you want to frame the discussion harshly by saying a player has “empty stats” or the more polite way of a player has “good stats but on a bad team,” determining if box score statistics paint an accurate picture of a player’s value on the court is not only a discussion worth having, but also one that is ever present in online NBA communities, sports talk radio, and everything in between.


Every team has that guy who fans point to and say something along the lines of “his numbers are empty and don’t contribute to winning.” DeMar DeRozan gets the brunt of this by a segment of Raptors fandom. Despite averaging 23.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and being named an All-Star last season, Toronto was +9.9 with DeRozan off the floor compared to +7.2 when he was on the floor, an on/off differential –2.7, per Basketball-Reference. For the Knicks, the empty stats target is zeroed in on Enes Kanter, a player whose on/off differential was –2.3 as a bad Knicks was less bad with him off the floor.

Unfortunately for Kanter, he was the inspiration for this article. When you look at Kanter’s box score stats from last season, they look quite impressive: 14.1 points on 63.0 true shooting percentage, 11.0 rebounds, and a career-high 1.5 assists. His per-100 possession numbers are even more impressive, as he averaged 27.1 points and 21.1 rebounds. How could anyone say with a straight face that a player who averages an efficient double-double is not providing value, not contributing to winning, and is putting up empty statistics?


Well… Enes Kanter, despite averaging an efficient double-double, does not provide value, does not contribute to winning basketball, and puts up empty statistics… sort of.

“Empty stats” is a misleading term. The issue isn’t that a player’s box score statistics don’t have value — they do and contribute to winning basketball games — but rather a player is performing so poorly in other facets of the game that it is taking away the positives of putting up good basic box score statistics. This is where DRE enters the programs.

DRE is an acronym for “Daily RAPM Estimate.” The metric was developed by Kevin Ferrigan back in 2015 and then updated in 2017. His goal was to track game-to-game performance fluctuations by determining what weights to place on specific box score metrics. Ferrigan’s methodology is somewhat of a raw, stripped-down version of Basketball-Reference’s box plus-minus. He ran a linear regression of per-100 possession basic box score stats against 14 seasons worth of multi-year RAPM.


Ferrigan reworked the regression’s explanitory variables a few years later and settled on the following: points, two-point attempts, three-point attempts, free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers and personal fouls (sound familiar?). The new, reworked regression was statistically significant and had an adjusted R-squared value of 0.5327, meaning that those basic per-100 possession box score statistics explain 53.27 percent of the variation of RAPM. It also means that 46.73 percent goes unexplained, but more on that later.

All but offensive rebounds and personal fouls were statistically significant at the 99th confidence intervals — and guess who happens to be atop the list of the one stat that is statistically insignificant. Do I really need to write who it is?

To calculate a player’s DRE, you use per-100 possession values in the following equation:


The sum of this equation is a player’s estimated RAPM based on per-100 possession box score statistics. Below is a table consisting of a number of different metrics for the Knicks this past season, including and sorted by DRE. Players with less than 1,000 possessions were removed. Sorry, Kuz.


You see it too, right? Enes Kanter has the second-best DRE and the worst differential on the Knicks last season. I know you’re asking yourself, “what does this mean, Drew?” and I’ll tell you right now: Kanter’s per-100 possession basic box score stats are overestimating his actual RAPM by a noticeable amount. Kanter goes from the Knick with the second-best estimated RAPM (or DRE) to a player who has a negative impact when he’s on the court. His box score metrics do not accurately predict his RAPM.

I completely understand that an adjusted plus-minus metric like RAPM is not the end-all be-all — I know you’re thinking this right now (probably… maybe). Reducing a player’s contribution to winning into one statistic is quite reckless.

With that said, RAPM is a foundational metric with NBA advanced analytics. Statistics like box plus-minus and player impact plus-minus are based off it. The metric is one of the best predictors in a team’s future performance. Its multi-year version is even more powerful for predictions and stat creation. There are no box score components to its calculation, which allows for analyses to be performed in order to measure the impact of different metrics. RAPM does provide legitimate value that cannot be ignored or overlooked.

Kanter is an excellent example for why individuals should not just look at the basic box scores and come to a conclusion about if a player is “good” or is a positive on the court. His stats are not empty, but rather his poor defense, lack of passing, and how his shot profile clogs the lane do not allow for his efficient, restricted area scoring and rebounding to add value nor be a plus on the floor. While the later to issues are important, Kanter’s issues are primarily defense related:


He’s impacting the game negatively in ways that a box score simply cannot capture, hence why there is still much left unexplained (46.73 percent) in the variation of RAPM.

Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
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arkrud
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9/6/2018  12:10 AM
Kanter is not overrated.
Everyone who knows something about bbal can see his limitations.
His defense is one of the worst in NBA, he is slow on both ends, and he is not helping to create space for other players to operate.
Good coach can make use of his positive skills but he cannot be on the court more that 20 min and not with the game on the line.
He is backup center to use in specific match-ups and in combination with teammates who cover for him defensively and capable to use him offensively.
Kanter is complimentary piece which is most likely not needed for winning team.
He can teach them to meditate... but no one can control even his own mind...
Welpee
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9/6/2018  10:54 AM    LAST EDITED: 9/6/2018  8:45 PM
I disagree about his defense. It's a situation where a player gets labeled and has that tag stuck to him the rest of his career. Kanter is far from great defensively player but I don't think he was nearly has bad as advertised when he arrived. He got in probably the best shape of his life and was not the liability people were concerned about my opinion. Now, I'm not saying he was good defensively just saying he wasn't THAT bad. Now I guess this is where somebody posts some advance stats to support what they want to believe.
BigDaddyG
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9/6/2018  10:57 AM    LAST EDITED: 9/6/2018  10:58 AM
arkrud wrote:Kanter is not overrated.
Everyone who knows something about bbal can see his limitations.
His defense is one of the worst in NBA, he is slow on both ends, and he is not helping to create space for other players to operate.
Good coach can make use of his positive skills but he cannot be on the court more that 20 min and not with the game on the line.
He is backup center to use in specific match-ups and in combination with teammates who cover for him defensively and capable to use him offensively.
Kanter is complimentary piece which is most likely not needed for winning team.

Enes has his defenders. But 27 points and 12 rebounds per 100 possessions is impressive and you can see why he has his supporters. Those numbers are going to look even better this upcoming season considering how horrible we will probably be. Yes, his defense is a trainwreck, but his offense diminishes some of that. I'll be clear, I think Enes isnt even worth the mid-level exception. But I also wonder if we're too critical of him at times.
Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
dodger78
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9/6/2018  12:32 PM
Quite honestly... regardless of all the stats pro or con...
I am cheering for the dude!
He seems to be an fun and cool personality who stands up and represents all the right values... for me!!! Great teammate and locker room guy by all accounts and a Knick... so I am all on his side and am positive regardimg his future performance until proven otherwise.
Go Knicks!!!

And damn he looks like he is in great shape so lets see how he performs on this depleted team!

NBK
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9/6/2018  2:25 PM
Welpee wrote:I disagree about his defense. It's a situation where a player gets labeled and has that tag stuck to him the rest of his career. Kanter is far from a great defensively player but I don't think he was nearly has bad as advertised when he arrived. He got in probably the best shape of his life and was not the liability people were concerned in my opinion. Now, I'm not saying he was good defensively just saying he wasn't THAT bad. Now I guess this is where somebody posts some advance stats to support what they want to believe.

I agree, by no means was he a great defender. But he was decent at times. I think his biggest issue is not being able to defend the pick and roll and the perimeter. Sometimes his rotations are late. It's also hard for him to defeat his natural deficiencies. He doesn't have great foot speed or lateral quickness, so he is limited.

That being said, offensively he is a beast. If he can muster up enough defense to stay on the floor, Kanter can average 20 and 12 easy.

newyorknewyork
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9/6/2018  3:13 PM    LAST EDITED: 9/6/2018  3:13 PM
Hes gonna be great in Fantasy bball this yr with the mins he will probably get with KP out.

In real life. Kanter has a place, just depends on price.

fishmike
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9/6/2018  3:35 PM
NBK wrote:
Welpee wrote:I disagree about his defense. It's a situation where a player gets labeled and has that tag stuck to him the rest of his career. Kanter is far from a great defensively player but I don't think he was nearly has bad as advertised when he arrived. He got in probably the best shape of his life and was not the liability people were concerned in my opinion. Now, I'm not saying he was good defensively just saying he wasn't THAT bad. Now I guess this is where somebody posts some advance stats to support what they want to believe.

I agree, by no means was he a great defender. But he was decent at times. I think his biggest issue is not being able to defend the pick and roll and the perimeter. Sometimes his rotations are late. It's also hard for him to defeat his natural deficiencies. He doesn't have great foot speed or lateral quickness, so he is limited.

That being said, offensively he is a beast. If he can muster up enough defense to stay on the floor, Kanter can average 20 and 12 easy.

those "times" he was decent were in m2m situations where he's got his body on one guy. Like when he guards other centers. Ask him to guard the P&R, a basic switch, come out and challenge a jumper... the guy is terrible. Among the worst in the league.

I think people hear "he's a bad defender" they take it as a knock on effort. Enes tries. The problem is he IS a bad defender.

There are a lot of good players who win and are poor defenders. Center is a not a spot you can really hide defensively in this league. If the Knicks find a way to do that with Enes cool.

BigDaddyG
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9/6/2018  4:12 PM
fishmike wrote:
NBK wrote:
Welpee wrote:I disagree about his defense. It's a situation where a player gets labeled and has that tag stuck to him the rest of his career. Kanter is far from a great defensively player but I don't think he was nearly has bad as advertised when he arrived. He got in probably the best shape of his life and was not the liability people were concerned in my opinion. Now, I'm not saying he was good defensively just saying he wasn't THAT bad. Now I guess this is where somebody posts some advance stats to support what they want to believe.

I agree, by no means was he a great defender. But he was decent at times. I think his biggest issue is not being able to defend the pick and roll and the perimeter. Sometimes his rotations are late. It's also hard for him to defeat his natural deficiencies. He doesn't have great foot speed or lateral quickness, so he is limited.

That being said, offensively he is a beast. If he can muster up enough defense to stay on the floor, Kanter can average 20 and 12 easy.

those "times" he was decent were in m2m situations where he's got his body on one guy. Like when he guards other centers. Ask him to guard the P&R, a basic switch, come out and challenge a jumper... the guy is terrible. Among the worst in the league.

I think people hear "he's a bad defender" they take it as a knock on effort. Enes tries. The problem is he IS a bad defender.

There are a lot of good players who win and are poor defenders. Center is a not a spot you can really hide defensively in this league. If the Knicks find a way to do that with Enes cool.


Yep, a lot of it is IQ and court vision. His court vision is limit on offense and defense. It translates into poor passing and an inability to keep track of his man on defense. KP can cover some of this, but then we talk about KP not covering his man at three-point line. I like Enes too, but is his offense good enough to overlook his defense?
Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
Welpee
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9/6/2018  8:52 PM
fishmike wrote:
NBK wrote:
Welpee wrote:I disagree about his defense. It's a situation where a player gets labeled and has that tag stuck to him the rest of his career. Kanter is far from a great defensively player but I don't think he was nearly has bad as advertised when he arrived. He got in probably the best shape of his life and was not the liability people were concerned in my opinion. Now, I'm not saying he was good defensively just saying he wasn't THAT bad. Now I guess this is where somebody posts some advance stats to support what they want to believe.

I agree, by no means was he a great defender. But he was decent at times. I think his biggest issue is not being able to defend the pick and roll and the perimeter. Sometimes his rotations are late. It's also hard for him to defeat his natural deficiencies. He doesn't have great foot speed or lateral quickness, so he is limited.

That being said, offensively he is a beast. If he can muster up enough defense to stay on the floor, Kanter can average 20 and 12 easy.

those "times" he was decent were in m2m situations where he's got his body on one guy. Like when he guards other centers. Ask him to guard the P&R, a basic switch, come out and challenge a jumper... the guy is terrible. Among the worst in the league.

I think people hear "he's a bad defender" they take it as a knock on effort. Enes tries. The problem is he IS a bad defender.

There are a lot of good players who win and are poor defenders. Center is a not a spot you can really hide defensively in this league. If the Knicks find a way to do that with Enes cool.

Perhaps he struggles because fewer teams now have traditional centers and he's forced to defend players more mobile than he is? I guess below average is below average regardless of the reason. I also wonder if things will be different under Fizdale. I didn't have a lot of faith in Hornacek's defensive coaching.
meloshouldgo
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9/8/2018  2:10 PM
BigDaddyG wrote:
fishmike wrote:
NBK wrote:
Welpee wrote:I disagree about his defense. It's a situation where a player gets labeled and has that tag stuck to him the rest of his career. Kanter is far from a great defensively player but I don't think he was nearly has bad as advertised when he arrived. He got in probably the best shape of his life and was not the liability people were concerned in my opinion. Now, I'm not saying he was good defensively just saying he wasn't THAT bad. Now I guess this is where somebody posts some advance stats to support what they want to believe.

I agree, by no means was he a great defender. But he was decent at times. I think his biggest issue is not being able to defend the pick and roll and the perimeter. Sometimes his rotations are late. It's also hard for him to defeat his natural deficiencies. He doesn't have great foot speed or lateral quickness, so he is limited.

That being said, offensively he is a beast. If he can muster up enough defense to stay on the floor, Kanter can average 20 and 12 easy.

those "times" he was decent were in m2m situations where he's got his body on one guy. Like when he guards other centers. Ask him to guard the P&R, a basic switch, come out and challenge a jumper... the guy is terrible. Among the worst in the league.

I think people hear "he's a bad defender" they take it as a knock on effort. Enes tries. The problem is he IS a bad defender.

There are a lot of good players who win and are poor defenders. Center is a not a spot you can really hide defensively in this league. If the Knicks find a way to do that with Enes cool.


Yep, a lot of it is IQ and court vision. His court vision is limit on offense and defense. It translates into poor passing and an inability to keep track of his man on defense. KP can cover some of this, but then we talk about KP not covering his man at three-point line. I like Enes too, but is his offense good enough to overlook his defense?

He is not a natural or instinctive defender. Plus his read of the game seems to be below average and his reaction speed is slow, which is why he is often wrong footed on defense.

I cannot teach anybody anything. I can only try to make them think - Socrates
How overrated is Kanter? It's complicated....

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