Melo's Move

How well will Carmelo Anthony fit in Houston? Contributor Jordan Brenner takes a look.

August 20, 2018

By Jordan Brenner

When Carmelo Anthony signed with the Houston Rockets earlier this month, it was simultaneously one of the least surprising and most puzzling moves of the offseason. In one sense, the merger was obvious: Daryl Morey has always coveted stars, and Anthony was once a star. Add in Melo’s longstanding friendship with Chris Paul and there was a clear connection between player and team.

But from a pure basketball sense, the signing is tough to comprehend. Anthony struggled to fit with the Thunder last season, chafing at a subordinate role on offense. And the Rockets have just as clear a pecking order ahead of Melo: James Harden and Paul are the playmakers, and everyone else plays off them. The Rockets clicked last season because they had forwards who were comfortable in that limited offensive role and who dug in on defense. That’s not Melo’s game and it makes for an awkward fit.

So can the Rockets find a way to make it work? League sources are pessimistic. “I think it’s going to be tough,” says an Eastern Conference executive. “You watched him last year and there was obvious frustration with his role. He’s just not the same guy he was.”

Adds a Western Conference exec, “They are not the same team. Can they be as good a team? I don’t know. But last year they had a defensive mindset for the first time and they were tough. Losing two of those guys is definitely painful and replacing them with Carmelo, yeah, you have a different personality now.”

Those two guys are Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute and, along with P.J. Tucker, their tenacity and attention to detail helped transform the Rockets into the NBA’s sixth-best defensive team after ranking 18th in 2016-17. Now they’re gone and Anthony has to take their place. Although the Thunder managed to build a strong defensive unit last season, it was in spite of Anthony, who ranked 73rd among power forwards with a -1.25 defensive RPM.

Of course, as the West exec says, “I don’t think they signed him with the intent to be a stellar defender. Mike [D’Antoni] has had him before. Mike knows.”

Instead, the real question is whether Anthony can be good enough offensively to compensate for whatever he costs Houston on defense. That will require a significant transformation on his part. Houston, of course, runs a steady diet of pick-and-roll and/or isolation with either Harden or Paul handling the ball; the shots others get come directly off their playmaking. As a result, catch-and-shoot threes accounted for 59% of Ariza’s field-goal attempts, 70% of P.J. Tucker’s shots and 51% of Mbah a Moute’s.

Anthony, meanwhile, has been a ball-dominant player for his entire career. Last season was his first attempt to shift into more of a spot-up role, and it didn’t go particularly well: 35% of his shots were catch-and-shoot threes, and he knocked them down at a decent 37% clip. In his three previous seasons, less than 20% of his shots were catch-and-shoot threes. So it will be a brave new world in Houston for Anthony, as he stands on the weak side and waits for a kick-out.

“Carmelo struggles when the ball’s not in his hands,” says the West exec. “He needs a lot of opportunities to get the ball in a rhythm. Maybe in this kind of offense, where there’s transition and he’s getting to take quick shots, maybe he’ll get into a rhythm and it’ll work, but when it comes down to half-court sets in the playoffs and he’s sitting on the weak side, that’s a problem.”

Anthony does have a more versatile offensive game than the guys he’s replacing, so perhaps D’Antoni will find more creative ways to utilize him. Maybe he’ll screen for Harden or Paul in a small-ball lineup, or work from the elbows to key the second unit. The problem is that the types of shots Melo generates are exactly the ones that the Rockets try to avoid. Last season, 31% of his shots were long 2-pointers, which placed him in the league’s 97th percentile. And he hardly ever gets to the rim anymore—those high-value shots accounted for just 15% of his offense, which put him in the 4th percentile at his position.

So Houston has a square peg/round hole issue, one that is exacerbated by the fact that Anthony is 34 years old. There has been talk of rekindling the mythical “Olympic Melo,” but that player was younger, worked against a lower level of competition and wasn’t always great: While Anthony hit 54% of his shots in the 2012 Olympics, he made just 39% in 2016.

Add it all up and you see why so many decision-makers are shaking their heads about the move. “I don’t know what type of environment or system he can play well in and help a team win at this stage of his career,” says a second East exec. “I think he would have to be really humbled to accept the role he could really help a team in, which is to come off the bench, play against backup fours and be a second option off the bench.

“But when you have a player thinking he’s one thing and everyone else seeing another, it’s a recipe for what happened in OKC.”

Jordan Brenner is a sports journalist who has covered the NBA for nearly two decades. He is the former NBA editor for ESPN The Magazine.

He's actually a good rebounder and he's always been skilled with his back to the basket. His "status" as an All Star and Olympian means he will get shaded with lots of calls in his favor with close contact in the paint.

It's not just the fifteen jab steps and being a chucker that's the problem. It's one of the issues, but not the entire problem. The problem is he kills effective floor spacing. He doesn't move well off the ball, nor seems to show effort to do it. His shot selection is poor. There's not real "synergy" with a high octane free flowing offense with his style of play.

This was an ownership call. I think fans would be easier on Melo if he just actually tried harder. If you close out a shooter, at least put your hands in the air.

Cartman718 wrote:i dont know why he keeps questioning whether he should come off the bench or not...he's the only banana boat buddy who hasn't kept himself in great shape and then has frustrations around his numbers dropping, team dynamics, coming off bench blah blah. Look at how gracefully Dwayne Wade accepted it.

He will always compare himself to Lebron in the sense of them being stars throughout the same years. Lebron has not shown any real decline in his game, so Melo in his mind has not declined either. He attributes his lower stats to change in role, etc. So you can't tell a former star who doesn't think he's declined in any way to come off the bench. Melo views himself differently than the rest of the world right now.

knicks1248 wrote:Melo is an entire different player when he has a pg/leader like a billups and CP3. He is a much better fit in MDA system, then the thunder with russel(i play for stats first)westbrook.

Nalod wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:Melo is an entire different player when he has a pg/leader like a billups and CP3. He is a much better fit in MDA system, then the thunder with russel(i play for stats first)westbrook.

Your saying its Westbrook as Melo’s problem last year?

Both were problems.

WB is a selfish low IQ player, but one who is so physically gifted, it's a bit insane. He is more offensively dominant than Melo ever was in the league. Melo was more offensively complete in his prime compared to WB. There's nothing from a skill set standpoint that Melo could not do well offensively. Whether he was willing to do those things was the issue. WB at least gives full burn all the time.

Both need the ball in their hands, only WB, at this point, can justify being so ball dominant.

Melo does not move well off the ball. He's a zero on defense. His shot selection is putrid. He's pretty much the anti-everything when it comes to Moreyball and SSOL. It doesn't matter if he starts or comes off the bench, his chosen style of play is toxic.

If Melo wanted to save his career, he should have signed with the Warriors. Only Draymond Green could cover for Melo on the floor defensively now. No other player, just Green.

TripleThreat wrote:

Nalod wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:Melo is an entire different player when he has a pg/leader like a billups and CP3. He is a much better fit in MDA system, then the thunder with russel(i play for stats first)westbrook.

Your saying its Westbrook as Melo’s problem last year?

Both were problems.

WB is a selfish low IQ player, but one who is so physically gifted, it's a bit insane. He is more offensively dominant than Melo ever was in the league. Melo was more offensively complete in his prime compared to WB. There's nothing from a skill set standpoint that Melo could not do well offensively. Whether he was willing to do those things was the issue. WB at least gives full burn all the time.

Both need the ball in their hands, only WB, at this point, can justify being so ball dominant.

Melo does not move well off the ball. He's a zero on defense. His shot selection is putrid. He's pretty much the anti-everything when it comes to Moreyball and SSOL. It doesn't matter if he starts or comes off the bench, his chosen style of play is toxic.

If Melo wanted to save his career, he should have signed with the Warriors. Only Draymond Green could cover for Melo on the floor defensively now. No other player, just Green.

All true. The thing that underscores Melo's career is that each time he was presented with the choice between further enriching himself and being part of so.etbing bigger with a chance to win it all, he always unfailingly put himself ahead of everything else. This is who he is.

knicks1248 wrote:

TripleThreat wrote:

Nalod wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:Melo is an entire different player when he has a pg/leader like a billups and CP3. He is a much better fit in MDA system, then the thunder with russel(i play for stats first)westbrook.

Your saying its Westbrook as Melo’s problem last year?

Both were problems.

WB is a selfish low IQ player, but one who is so physically gifted, it's a bit insane. He is more offensively dominant than Melo ever was in the league. Melo was more offensively complete in his prime compared to WB. There's nothing from a skill set standpoint that Melo could not do well offensively. Whether he was willing to do those things was the issue. WB at least gives full burn all the time.

Both need the ball in their hands, only WB, at this point, can justify being so ball dominant.

Melo does not move well off the ball. He's a zero on defense. His shot selection is putrid. He's pretty much the anti-everything when it comes to Moreyball and SSOL. It doesn't matter if he starts or comes off the bench, his chosen style of play is toxic.

If Melo wanted to save his career, he should have signed with the Warriors. Only Draymond Green could cover for Melo on the floor defensively now. No other player, just Green.

I said yrs ago( when melo first came to ny) that he would never win a championship until he was a role player.

Few if any possess a unique blend of claroyence and humility which makes for a great three writer!
but you most certainly have something!

TripleThreat wrote:

Nalod wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:Melo is an entire different player when he has a pg/leader like a billups and CP3. He is a much better fit in MDA system, then the thunder with russel(i play for stats first)westbrook.

Your saying its Westbrook as Melo’s problem last year?

Both were problems.

WB is a selfish low IQ player, but one who is so physically gifted, it's a bit insane. He is more offensively dominant than Melo ever was in the league. Melo was more offensively complete in his prime compared to WB. There's nothing from a skill set standpoint that Melo could not do well offensively. Whether he was willing to do those things was the issue. WB at least gives full burn all the time.

Both need the ball in their hands, only WB, at this point, can justify being so ball dominant.

Melo does not move well off the ball. He's a zero on defense. His shot selection is putrid. He's pretty much the anti-everything when it comes to Moreyball and SSOL. It doesn't matter if he starts or comes off the bench, his chosen style of play is toxic.

If Melo wanted to save his career, he should have signed with the Warriors. Only Draymond Green could cover for Melo on the floor defensively now. No other player, just Green.

Andre Roberson was doing a good job of covering for Melo's defensive liabilities prior to the injury. To your point though, it's doubtful he would have been a lock to continue doing that this season, had Melo stayed put.

Not sure how being a zero on defense matters with Pringles, other than compounding the issue playing alongside Harden. Going to be interesting to see if Melo gets why his bench career must start now, because he and Harden can't be on the floor at the same time for any length of meaningful time. There is no Green or Roberson to save either one of them now.

CrushAlot wrote:No hoodie.

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/rockets_insider/status/1034629034708279296

People always tweet these videos saying Melo looks great. Obviously he looks great. What do they expect? He can still score with the best of them and will dominant pickup games until he's 50 years old, maybe older. The issue with Melo is his unwillingness to change his game to fit the constant-changing league. I always hoped he could adjust as he aged and make up for slight year over year declines with constant adjustments, but he has been unwilling to do that.