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MaTT4281
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Breaking down the Eastern Conference
By Jon Palmer / Sept 15, 2004
There have been a lot of changes this offseason. Some have been absolutely huge (Shaquille O’Neal moving to Miami), but even the smaller changes can have significant impact in a conference where, after the first three teams, the field is wide open. Here's how the East looks.
*NOTE: The top eight teams in these power rankings are not necessarily the teams I predict to make the playoffs. In fact, it’s impossible for playoff seedings to turn out this way, because of the NBA’s new division alignment. These teams are ranked based on a combination of how good I think they will be and how many wins I think each team will end up with - which often isn't the same thing.
15. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Starting five: C Melvin Ely, PF Emeka Okafor, SF Gerald Wallace, SG Jason Kapono, PG Brevin Knight
Key bench contributors: G Tamar Slay
Antoine Walker is the only thing keeping Charlotte behind Atlanta at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. They’ve got a guy (Okafor) who can be in the better half of big men in the east, even this early. He’ll help bring defense to an expansion team, something they usually lack in a big way. Okafor’s contributions, along with a point guard (Brevin Knight) who has legitimate ability to control an offense should be enough to get them close to 20 wins. Gerald Wallace will have a chance to use his tools to make him more than just an athlete in this league, and Jason Kapono will hit plenty of threes, something the lesser teams in the league don’t do very well.
14. ATLANTA HAWKS
Starting five: C Predrag Drobnjak, PF Antoine Walker, SF Al Harrington, SG Josh Childress, PG Tony Delk
Key bench contributors: F-G Boris Diaw
Antoine Walker loves to dominate the ball, and Al Harrington has been waiting for a more prominent role on his team. With the little talent Atlanta has, both players will get their wishes. The Hawks are almost completely devoid of anything you’d call a center or a point guard; Atlanta’s starters in those positions are pretty much just there to shoot. The Hawks have what could be confused with “depth” at the wing positions, but other than Harrington, are any of their wingmen good enough to get significant minutes on another team not in Charlotte? They won’t be good for awhile, but they’re set up well for rebuilding with cap room, draft position, and a big expiring contract in Walker.
13. NEW JERSEY NETS
Starting five: C Jason Collins, PF Aaron Williams, SF Richard Jefferson, SG Ron Mercer or Rodney Buford, PG Jason Kidd
Key bench contributors: SF Eric Williams
Losing Kenyon Martin made the Nets’ frontcourt much less athletic. Aaron Williams can be close to as effective on the boards, but Martin’s absence is most going to hurt New Jersey in their halfcourt and transition offenses. You won’t catch Williams beating opposing forwards down court consistently, and he won’t function nearly as well as a cutter. Even if Alonzo Mourning can make a successful return, this team is going to struggle. Neither Ron Mercer nor Rodney Buford can bring the underrated veteran roleplay that Kerry Kittles displayed in New Jersey. Jason Kidd is coming back from knee surgery, which is likely the least encouraging sentence the Nets have heard in years. Richard Jefferson will put up great stats and have all the opportunity to prove that his worth is closer to the value of his contract than anyone thinks. Eric Williams, along with Kidd, will help lead the team defensively, and the Nets will need it, as that will be one of the few ways they’ll find to win games.
12. ORLANDO MAGIC
Starting five: C Kelvin Cato, PF Dwight Howard, SF Hedo Turkoglu, SG Cuttino Mobley, PG Steve Francis
Key bench contributors: F Pat Garrity, F Stacey Augmon and, if the 946th outburst of rumors are true, F Grant Hill
Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley will be happy in Orlando, as they free themselves from the disciplined system of Jeff Van Gundy and play for a young, rebuilding team that they can dominate. Both players love having the ball, and they’ll need to have it most often if Orlando plans on winning any games. Dwight Howard is an interesting pick, in that he’s a little different than most of the underdeveloped “potential” players we see come into the league from high school. I don’t necessarily think he’ll be great, but he’ll be at least as good as Kwame Brown has been. Opposing defenses will invariably realize that Francis and Mobley will have the ball the majority of the time, and that they should double them often. If either player realizes that he should pass a little more than he’s done in the past, Hedo Turkoglu can knock down shots on the wing when open. Kelvin Cato is good defensively and can anchor the team on that end of the floor, but the Magic are pretty much devoid of any reliable post offense. If Grant Hill actually does make a comeback, there’ll be a party at my house, and the Magic make the playoffs.
11. CHICAGO BULLS
Starting five: C Eddy Curry, PF Tyson Chandler, SF Luol Deng, SG Ben Gordon, PG Kirk Hinrich
Key bench contributors: C-F Antonio Davis, G Eric Piatkowski, F Andres Nocioni
The Bulls keep assembling intriguing young talent, and one has to wonder how long it will be until they get a mix that works and stays in Chicago. The last time the Bulls may have had something, Brad Miller and Ron Artest got traded for an ugly, ugly contract in Jalen Rose. Eddy Curry is entering a contract year, in which we will likely finally see what Curry is capable of, instead of the normal end-of-season flashes of brilliance. Tyson Chandler has proven himself as a hard worker, or at least harder than he was in the past. He’s developing into an intriguing player on the defensive and rebounding end of things. Kirk Hinrich is a special player. He’s a proven playmaker who likes defense and plays a brand of hard-nosed basketball that coaches (and amateur analysts) love. If Ben Gordon can take the scoring ability he showed at Connecticut and find a way to use it against the bigger, longer NBA guards, he’ll be a huge plus for Chicago. Andres Nocioni is more of a true small forward than the Bulls have had in awhile, and he should fit in nicely. If Luol Deng doesn’t have significant impact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nocioni start a couple stretches of games. Eric Piatkowski gives the Bulls some outside shooting, and that’s about it. It would have been nice for the Bulls to keep Fred Hoiberg, as he can do a few more things.
10. MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Starting five: C Dan Gadzuric, PF Joe Smith, SF Keith Van Horn, SG Michael Redd, PG Mike James
Key bench contributors: G T.J. Ford (until he gets healthy), F-G Desmond Mason, G Maurice Williams, F Toni Kukoc
There are so many bench contributors listed for Milwaukee because they’ll have to use all their talent if they hope to win consistently, especially with T.J. Ford’s status currently up in the air. He won’t be ready for the start of training camp, and I’m guessing he may miss a considerable stretch of games. Mike James can hit threes and play defense, but he can’t compare with what Ford does for the rest of Milwaukee’s offense. Expect James to be about as impactful as Damon Jones was in Ford’s absence last season, but a bit less consistent running the offense. Dan Gadzuric is a good, athletic center to bring off the bench for about 20 minutes per game. Unfortunately, Brian Skinner’s signing with Philadelphia puts Gadzuric in a role bigger than he should be playing. Desmond Mason, though different from Keith Van Horn, is probably just as good. He just works better for the team as the first player off the bench, spelling both Van Horn and Redd for stretches. Michael Redd is a great shooter, but he’ll have to improve his ability to create his own shot if Milwaukee’s going to contend for a lower playoff spot. Maurice Williams was a good free agent signing, but likely won’t show it for another season or two. Toni Kukoc will remain in the NBA as the “tall Croatian guy who shoots well” for the next 654894651 years.
9. WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Starting five: C Etan Thomas, PF Kwame Brown, SF Antawn Jamison, SG Larry Hughes or Jarvis Hayes, PG Gilbert Arenas
Key bench contributors: Whichever of Hayes and Hughes does not start, C Brendan Haywood
If injuries, for the most part, stay away from this Wizards team, don’t be surprised to see them sneak into the playoffs. Etan Thomas is an underrated rebounder and defender, and Kwame Brown is at least better than most people say he is. Antawn Jamison is a great guy to have as a second option. He can score all over the place, and does so reasonably efficiently. Thomas, Brown, and Jamison on the front line should get Washington a ton of rebounds, which will help in a big way. It’s probably a better idea to start Jarvis Hayes and have Larry Hughes back up both guard spots. Hughes would get close to the same amount of minutes either way, and this allows Washington to constantly have a point guard who’s athletic and a threat to drive and score. If Gilbert Arenas improves his ability to see the floor and take advantage of playmaking opportunities he creates, this team could be dangerous.
8. TORONTO RAPTORS
Starting five: C Rafael Araujo, PF Chris Bosh, SF Vince Carter, SG Jalen Rose, PG Rafer Alston
Key bench contributors: F Donyell Marshall, G Alvin Williams
If Toronto can get anywhere near the normal value of a #8 draft pick out of Rafael Araujo, they’re pretty much a shoe-in for the playoffs. All Araujo has to do is plug up the middle, grab some boards, and block a shot here or there and the Raptors should be happy. Chris Bosh should continue to develop; he’s going to be a very unique player. Hopefully the Raptors will focus on developing his abilities more this season, now that he won’t be forced into playing center. Donyell Marshall is a great fit in Toronto. Coming off the bench, he could make great impact against opposing reserve forwards. Toronto has potential for a really effective frontcourt if it’s used correctly. Rafer Alston was a good pickup. He can hit shots (especially when it counts) and create shots for his teammates. Alvin Williams can come off the bench to help control the game if Alston gets erratic, which he doesn’t do as much anymore. This team will still rely a lot on Vince Carter, so he’s got to stay healthy. A healthy Vince Carter could have the Raptors giving first-round opponents some trouble in the playoffs.
7. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Starting five: C Samuel Dalembert, PF Kenny Thomas, SF Glenn Robinson, SG Andre Iguodala, PG Allen Iverson
Key bench contributors: C-F Brian Skinner, F Corliss Williamson
Allen Iverson back at the point should either be very good or very bad. He’s shown ability to create open looks and hit the players that have them. It’s really just a matter of debating whether or not he’s had decent offensive help the past few seasons. Personally, I think he hasn’t, and that Iverson running the point could be a very good thing for Philadelphia. Samuel Dalembert is ready to consistently show the production he had towards the end of last season. He will emerge as a legitimate, athletic rebounder and shot-blocker. Kenny Thomas’ work in the post is often overlooked. He hustles for ten boards a night, and he’s offensively competent. Glenn Robinson is a cancer, but Philadelphia only has to deal with him for one more season – possibly just until February if a team has some talent to give up for an expiring contract. If Andre Iguodala has immediate impact, Philadelphia could be a real success. If not, expect them to sit at the bottom of the playoff seeds. Brian Skinner and Corliss Williamson will do for Philadelphia what they’ve done for their respective teams the past couple of years, and it should provide a good lift off the bench for the Sixers.
6. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Starting five: C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, PF Drew Gooden, SF Luke Jackson, SG LeBron James, PG Eric Snow
Key bench contributors: G Jeff McInnis, F-G Aleksandar Pavlovic
What Cleveland lost in seeing Carlos Boozer sign with the Utah Jazz, they almost made up for by trading for a great control point guard in Eric Snow. Snow will create offense for his teammates, control the pace of the game, and play great defense. Jeff McInnis, with his potent scoring abilities, should create a change of pace after substitutions that could really throw opposing defenses off. Luke Jackson will be a good player to put next to LeBron James. He can hit outside shots, something Cleveland has sorely lacked, but he’s also pretty athletic, enabling Cleveland’s backcourt to get out and run as long as Ilgauskas and Drew Gooden can take care of the defensive glass. LeBron James’ play this season should improve a lot, not only because of a year of NBA experience and natural (or in James’ case, unnatural) development, but because of the players he has around him in Snow and Jackson. Drew Gooden won’t clean up the offensive glass and get the garbage buckets Carlos Boozer did, but he shouldn’t be as big a downgrade as people think. He doesn’t have another power forward to put pressure on him now, and he should get some results. Ilgauskas is reliable in the post, but he hinders the pace of game Cleveland could be running with a more mobile center.
5. NEW YORK KNICKS
Starting five: C Nazr Mohammed, PF Kurt Thomas, SF Tim Thomas, SG Allan Houston, PG Stephon Marbury
Key bench contributors: G Jamal Crawford, C-F Vin Baker
Stephon Marbury fits well in New York. His gameplay, persona, and attitude all make the blue and orange look like the right uniform on him. Jamal Crawford should be the first player on the bench for now. Houston’s outside shooting is better suited for a starting role with Marbury’s penetration creating open shots for him. Crawford will best be used to back up both Houston and Marbury, taking advantage of his versatility and scoring ability. Tim Thomas is a player who always makes me mad because he should be so much better than he his, but at face value, Thomas isn’t bad for a starting small forward. He’s long, athletic, and he can shoot. Kurt Thomas is tough on the boards and defensive end, but his 12 or 13 points per night is the best post production the Knicks are going to get, and that will hurt them. Without a post to keep defenses honest, players like Marbury and Houston are going to feel a lot more pressure.
4. BOSTON CELTICS
Starting five: C Mark Blount, PF Al Jefferson (probably Raef Lafrentz to start with), SF Paul Pierce, SG Ricky Davis, PG Marcus Banks (could be Delonte West by season’s end)
Key bench contributors: G Jiri Welsch, G Delonte West, whichever of Jefferson or LaFrentz doesn’t start
Mark Blount had some huge games late last year. He should develop into a solid, double-double type center this season. The Celtics had a great draft, and Al Jefferson could prove it by starting by season’s end. Deltonte West is a tough guard who loves defense, and can probably beat out Marcus Banks for the starting spot. This, of course, is assuming that Gary Payton doesn’t end up wearing Celtic green. If Payton does play for the Celtics, it’ll be huge for them. Tony Allen will make some noise, but probably won’t get his chance to do it just yet. Paul Pierce, now with a team that hasn’t been completely dismantled anytime recently, should show much steadier production, and team chemistry as a whole should be greatly improved. Ricky Davis has been reported to be working hard as of late in an effort to prove himself worthy of the starting shooting guard spot. Talent-wise, there’s no reason Davis shouldn’t be starting for Boston. They’ve put him to the test, and he’s finally responding in the right way. It should be a good season for Davis. A lot of people may wonder why the Celtics are ranked this high (or the Knicks at 5th, for that matter). For one, they play team defense, and they do it well. Second, they’ve added defensive-minded players to improve a concept they’re already strong with. Third, this is the eastern conference. After the first few teams, everything is pretty much wide open. An injury or a breakout season could shift the seedings of as many as six or seven teams.
3. MIAMI HEAT
Starting five: C Shaquille O’Neal, PF Udonis Haslem, SF Rasual Butler, SG Eddie Jones, PG Dwyane Wade
Key bench contributors: G Damon Jones, expected signee C-F Christian Laettner
Shaquille O’Neal is motivated. If you haven’t widened your eyes, wet yourself, or had some kind of physiological indication of freaking out at the possibilities, I’ll type it again: Shaquille O’Neal is motivated. We’ve all watched him hold back at times, simply because he could do it and still dominate everything standing in his way. Now? O’Neal is dropping weight, which means increasing his mobility while maintaining his strength. People may be concerned that lost bulk will hamper O’Neal’s ability to bulldoze opponents in the post. Those people need to realize that O’Neal, even if fifty pounds lighter than he is right now, would still dominate most everyone he faces. He’s too strong and his touch is too soft and he knows how to play the game to his strengths. If having this much devoted to O’Neal in these rankings hasn’t tipped you off as to why Miami is ranked so highly, factor in Dwyane Wade, the young, super-talented primetime player that quietly made an impact on the league while everyone’s eyes were fixed on LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. Don’t be surprised if Wade becomes a more prominent player than Anthony after a season next to the new-and-improved Shaquille O’Neal. Udonis Haslem is nothing special, but he’ll fight for rebounds. If he can consistently hit a fifteen-foot jumper, that’ll be a big bonus for Miami. Damon Jones was a big pickup, as he can control the game a little better than Wade, and also play with Wade and use his outside shooting ability to compliment Wade’s ability to drive. Throw in shooters Wesley Person and, to a lesser extent, Rasual Butler, and the Heat, though lacking in depth, are a dangerous team.
2. INDIANA PACERS
Starting five: C Jeff Foster, PF Jermaine O’Neal, SF Ron Artest, SG Stephen Jackson, PG Jamaal Tinsley
Key bench contributors: G Reggie Miller, possibly F Jonathan Bender
I still haven’t seen Jermaine O’Neal taking over games the way I’d like for him to. I think he lacks slightly in his ability to impose his will upon a game, which hurts Indiana deep in the playoffs. Ron Artest is an absolute defensive monster, and pairing him with the defensively-underrated Stephen Jackson will give the Pacers some great wing defense. Jackson will probably start over Reggie Miller for his greater consistency and defense, but don’t be surprised to see Miller in at key moments in third and fourth quarters. No defense within the right frame of mind could ever leave Reggie Miller alone when the game’s on the line. It’s time for Jamaal Tinsley to step up and be consistent for a whole season. The Pacers need effective play at the point to be effective, and Tinsley is best suited to give it to them. If the Pacers’ brass doesn’t see Tinsley developing into that player soon, they need to investigate trade possibilities while his value is still relatively high. Jeff Foster is the consummate fit-in center. He rebounds like crazy, he can defend, and he can jump over Corey Maggette to dunk the ball. Every offensively quiet starting center should be able to jump over Corey Maggette in order to dunk. Unless they bring Stephen Jackson off the bench, which may not be the best thing to do, losing Al Harrington will hurt them a bit. That and Rasheed Wallace being with the Pistons for a full season will place the Pacers firmly at second in the east.
1. DETROIT PISTONS
Starting five: C Ben Wallace, PF Rasheed Wallace, SF Tayshaun Prince, SG Richard Hamilton, PG Chauncey Billups
Key bench contributors: F Antonio McDyess, F Ronald Dupree, G Lindsey Hunter
Having Rasheed Wallace for a full season will do wonders for this Pistons team. He changes their game in a big way. The Pistons could really use a guy to come in and hit threes of the bench. Lindsey Hunter can be that player at times, and the Pistons have confidence in Carlos Delfino (the Argentinian guard they just put on the team), but a guy who’s sole role is to come in and hit open shots is something Detroit is missing. With the type of game Richard Hamilton plays, I didn’t think we’d see his game step up as much as it did in the playoffs. This may be a sign of a more prominent role in Detroit’s offense. Tayshaun Prince and Chauncey Billups are players who thrive in big games and give Detroit some serious guts when it counts. Antonio McDyess has been injured as long as many of us are willing to remember, but he did some positive things when he came back last season, and he should make positive contributions for the Pistons and make his name known again. Ronald Dupree was a good roleplayer in Chicago, and his style of play will fit right in. Bottom line, the team that performed the best last year only got better and more experienced, and that’s usually enough to keep them at the top.
Comments? Questions? Agree? Disagree? Want to argue, rave, rant, etc? Got any ideas or thoughts on other things you like to see written about? Reach Jon at palmer@insidehoops.net
http://www.insidehoops.com/rankings-east-091504.shtml
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9/15/2004 6:00 PM